Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Grant Campbell and Dobber

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1. Defending Rocket Richard Trophy winner Connor McDavid has just two goals all season. More recently, he has just one point in his last five games and no goals since returning from injury six games ago (and last eight games total). I really wonder if he returned too early from the upper-body injury just so he could play in the Heritage Classic, the Oilers’ showcase game. At the time, the injury was expected to sideline him for 1-2 weeks, and he was out of action for barely a week.

Through all of this, McDavid is just one shy of a point-per-game average, and his track record proves that his season should get back on track. Yet he’s the one player in the league where we can truthfully say point-per-game isn’t nearly enough. You had 145 points (according to the Dobber projection) accounted for from that one player, and now that probably won’t happen. Entering Saturday, McDavid was tied in points with much less notable players like Brady Skjei, Evan Rodrigues, J.T. Compher, and James van Riemsdyk. That wasn’t supposed to happen! (nov11)

2. If McDavid truly has a clean bill of health (and we can’t expect NHL teams to be that forthcoming about that kind of information), then maybe he’s a buy low. Just keep in mind that he might be playing through an injury because the Oilers simply can’t afford to have him out of the lineup while they desperately try to catch up to the rest of the league. But if the Oilers’ season still hasn’t hit complete rock bottom, then at some point McDavid could be shut down for a while. (nov11)

3. After a dreadful defensive performance on Wednesday, John Klingberg was out of the lineup on Friday with what was being described as an undisclosed injury. You can probably find descriptions and charts on Klingberg’s defensive play elsewhere, but I’ll just note that he is a minus player for the fifth consecutive season. His offense has also taken a hit recently with no points over his last seven games. If the scoring woes continue, then he may really be a healthy scratch at some point this season.
[Update: John Klingberg was back in the lineup on Saturday.]

The Leafs had only one power play on Friday, with Morgan Rielly back in a familiar spot on the first unit in place of Klingberg. Rielly has heated up with four points in his last four games and six shots on Friday, so I wonder if he’s back in that spot today (Saturday) against Vancouver.

Entering Saturday, William Nylander had started the season with a 14-game point streak. Nylander was also a top-5 league scorer (21 points in 14 games). He was leading the NHL with 66 shots on goal, which means that his scoring won’t fall off considerably as long as his shot numbers don’t dip. (nov11)
[Update: William Nylander‘s season-opening point streak is now at 15 games after scoring against the Canucks on Saturday.]

4. The calls to drop Jonathan Huberdeau in fantasy leagues are getting louder and louder. I hate to hear it, since Huberdeau has been a solid mainstay on my keeper team for years. After his benching on Tuesday, Huberdeau returned to normal duty on Friday as expected. He recorded an assist in 19 minutes of ice time, which is something but not nearly enough to suggest that the slump is over.

Huberdeau has a grand total of three shots over his last four games, including just one on Friday. When you don’t shoot, you don’t score, and not surprisingly Huberdeau is without a goal over his last nine games. The season is hardly a writeoff, but he’s currently on pace to finish below 55 points – the number that made last season a massive disappointment. With eight years and $10.5 million per left on the contract, Huberdeau isn’t going anywhere. It’s imperative that the Flames find a way to make it work. (nov11)

5. One way for Flames fans to forget about Huberdeau is to think about Connor Zary. The rookie scored a goal on Friday, giving him points in all four of his NHL games entering Saturday. Zary has been on a scoring line with Nazem Kadri and Yegor Sharangovich, logging at least 18 minutes in back-to-back games. Given the way Flames youngsters haven’t become permanent fixtures in the lineup the past couple seasons (Matt Coronato, Jakob Pelletier, Matthew Phillips), I’m not totally confident Zary will stay there for the rest of the season. But he could be worth taking a flier on in deeper leagues. For more on Zary, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (nov11)

6. Brent Burns has been held without a point in his past eight games. It seems to be a number of things, including slightly reduced ice time and power-play time, a decrease of about half a shot per game, and a reduced shooting percentage. That could also be a nice way of saying he’s being hit by the aging curve. Burns is now 38 years old, but he’s been hanging in there with 774 consecutive games played, which leads all active players by a considerable margin. (nov11)

7. Despite Jared Spurgeon‘s return, the Wild sent out a five-forward power play for the bulk of the minutes on Friday. Those five forwards were Marcus Johansson, Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, and Kirill Kaprizov. After trading Calen Addison to San Jose earlier in the week, Dean Evason may not be sold on any of his current defensemen playing on the first unit. (nov11)

8. Appearing on the Fantasy Hockey Life podcast last weekend, I mentioned Quinton Byfield as a possible waiver-wire add. Byfield has continued to be hot, currently riding a five-game point streak with eight points over that span. He’s also been on what should be considered LA’s top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Although he’s not with the same pair on the power play, the Kings’ power play seems to be fairly evenly divided among its top units.

Although it seems like development has been slow because he was drafted second overall back in 2020, Byfield is still only 21 years old, had played just over 100 career games, and is a larger (6-5, 225 lb.) forward. Although his curve might suggest a significant breakout will happen next season, you might not have to wait that long. (nov11)

9. Trevor Zegras was out of the Ducks’ lineup on Friday due to a nagging lower-body injury. This injury, combined with his late start due to his contract situation, seem to be contributing factors to his slow start (just 2 PTS in 12 GP). Zegras has been held without a point in his previous four games. With the Ducks enjoying a better-than-expected start, you’d think Zegras would be right in the mix among their top scorers, but that clearly hasn’t been the case. He’s worth another shot when he returns.

In just his ninth career NHL game, 18-year-old Leo Carlsson already has his first career hat trick. The three goals doubles his goal total for the season from three to six. The ice time and the scoring might not be consistent, but the talent is already there. Hopefully this load management business with healthy scratches to help him learn and develop is a thing of the past. Tell me why I picked up Ryan Strome instead of Carlsson on Friday? Maybe because Carlsson is well hidden at just 8 percent rostered. That might not last, though. (nov11)

10. One of the downsides of watching Patrik Laine‘s career blossom has been all the injuries. On the good-news front, he was back on the ice with teammates this week. Skating with scratches doesn’t mean a lot, but it does mean he’s inching closer to a return. Columbus can’t afford too many more injuries like this, or games missed from Laine. (nov10)

11. Pierre Engvall was a healthy scratch for the Islanders last Thursday after the coach deemed his costly turnover against Minnesota on Tuesday worthy of sitting out a game. At the time, Engvall’s line ranked sixth out of 51 line combinations with at least 60 minutes together this season by expected goal share, higher than any line from the Kings, Lightning, and Rangers (for example), and had a higher goal share than the top lines from Toronto, Los Angeles, New York, Vegas, and Dallas. Anyway, that turnover is absolutely a reason to break up one of the best second lines in the league this year, and one of the best second lines since Engvall was traded to Long Island. Certainly not anyone on the third line, that is getting hemmed in their zone on a nightly basis. Perfectly reasonable stuff here. (nov10)

12. The Minnesota Wild made some adjustments to their blue line on Wednesday by trading Calen Addison to the San Jose Sharks, then turning around and getting Zach Bogosian from Tampa Bay. I wrote up a bit on the Addison trade already so go check that out if you haven’t already.

I will say that it’s one of those no-risk trades the Sharks should be making. At the worst, if Addison is a third-pair power play quarterback as he has been, it’s an upgrade for them. If he fulfills the potential some of us (present company included) thinks he has, it’s a home run. There still isn’t a ton of value change fantasy-wise, though. (nov9)

13. In my Ramblings on Tuesday, I brought up that the league was seeing a lot fewer shot attempts actually land on goal. The result was that for every 100 shot attempts this season, roughly five fewer of them would end up on goal as compared to just a couple years ago. It would change a lot for fantasy hockey as it relates to everything from shot totals, to block totals, to save percentages, to goals against averages, and so on. I didn’t dig deep further at the time but did look into this a bit more.

To back things up a bit, over the summer I wrote about how the 2022-23 season saw a huge jump in blocked shots from 2021-22. The overall total was a rise of 8.6% in shots blocked per game, with a large chunk of that coming from the penalty kill. It resulted in considerably more players (111) registering at least 100 blocks to the year before (88). That is what is meant by the equations changing for fantasy hockey if something like that persisted.

Using data from Natural Stat Trick, let’s look at what’s going on so far in the 2023-24 season, with data as of the afternoon of Novembr 8. Go here… (nov9)

14. Jack Campbell being waved was a first step in Oilers management pushing the panic button. It sounds as though the plan is to look internally first, but I would imagine if that doesn’t work, then a trade for Cal Petersen, Jake Allen, Dan Vladar, Anton Forsberg, or Chris Dreidger could come to fruition very quickly.

Cal Pickard is worth a speculative add in case he goes on a run, but be ready to drop him just as quickly for the next flavour of the week. In the same vein, maybe all Campbell needs is a break or a few AHL games to get his mojo back. We have seen him go on excellent runs before, so be ready to grab him cheaply two weeks from now if you have room to make that stash, as there’s nowhere for him to go but up for the second half. Whenever Edmonton does get going, owning their goalie is going to be an excellent fantasy gift. (nov8)

15. I traded (very cheaply) for Kevin Hayes recently, and he rewards my team with a three-point night immediately upon arrival. I don’t have extremely high hopes for him, but at his floor, he should be a 35 or 40-point-player.

His underlying numbers from last year were good, showing that he might have been able to maintain or even slightly exceed the 55-point-pace that he maintained last season. However, with a 13-game sample so far in 2023-24 Hayes is pacing for 32 points, and the underlying numbers don’t indicate anything positive towards a coming return to average. The big difference between this year and last then? Linemates.

Last season with Philly, Hayes skated primarily with Scott Laughton, Wade Allison, Owen Tippett, and Travis Konecny. This year, he’s down on the third line with Sammy Blais, Jake Neighbors, Alexey Toropchenko, and recent healthy-scratch Jakub Vrana, Additionally, Hayes’ shooting rate has plummeted, and he is currently averaging a single shot per game, compared to the 2.5 he has averaged the last number of years.

According to the NHL Edge data, Hayes’ skating and shot have both lost speed as compared to last year, which makes me think this decline is overall related to an injury, or just age. (nov8)

16. Based on my opinions and understanding as a non-scout, the top of the 2024 Draft isn’t quite as deep as last year, nor does it have the superstar/generational level talent that Connor Bedard brought to the 2023 crop. However, Macklin Celebrini is certainly going to be worth owning in fantasy very soon, and could be relevant in the NHL as early as next year.

There should be a few more defensemen available early compared to years prior, and it seems like most of the group near the top of the 2024 class can handle the puck well in the offensive zone as well as defending at a high level. (nov8)

17. Staying on the positive side of things, there was a good update for Florida about defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour:

@JamesonCoop: Maurice says there's a chance that Montour and/or Ekblad return after the upcoming trip to California.

Neither has played yet this season as they both had offseason shoulder surgeries following their lengthy playoff run. Technically speaking, Florida went into Monday night’s game against Columbus with the second-worst point total in their division, but they were just one point out of a playoff spot. They have been able to keep things stable while being without their star blueliners, and that bodes very well for the next five months (and beyond).

Fantasy owners that gambled on these guys returning before December rolled around during draft season may be rewarded for that faith. It will also nuke Oliver Ekman-Larsson‘s fantasy value into the ground, so not everyone wins here. (nov7)

18. Why not another positive injury update, this time on Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy:

@sunhornby: Tampa coach Jon Cooper projects Andrei Vasilevskiy will be a bit ahead of schedule and return around the end of the US Thanksgiving holiday period.

Getting Vasilevskiy back would obviously be a benefit to the team, but it’s the rest of the roster that needs to clean up their play. (nov7)

19. Nick Robertson was called up to the Leafs roster for Monday night’s game with Pontus Holmberg going the other way. Robertson started his AHL season with five goals, 11 points, and 37 shots in nine games, so he seems very much ready to make the jump. If he can be a regular in the top-6 forward mix, it would go a long way to helping this team establish any semblance of a third (and maybe even a fourth) line. Just beware that Matthew Knies was on the top line for Monday’s game and Robertson is unlikely to earn top PP time at any point unless there is an injury (or two) among their top options. (nov7)

20. I didn’t really want Cam Fowler on my fantasy teams leading up to the year, but I was able to get him on waivers and I thought he might be a good insurance policy if Olen Zellweger or Pavel Mintyukov weren’t ready or Jamie Drysdale wasn’t quite up to form. We all know now that Zellweger was sent to the AHL, Drysdale was injured and Mintyukov has been very good, but Fowler is now up to seven points in 13 games with 27 blocks and is still averaging over 24 minutes per game. I don’t think there is any doubt that Fowler’s production will decline as Mintyukov continues to improve and Drysdale returns to the lineup. Fowler is like old reliable at 31-years of age and is somehow above his point pace from a year ago. (nov6)

21. AHL Prospect Check-in: I thought I would check in with NHL prospects who are playing in the AHL this year. For my purposes, I’m going to focus on AHL players who are 23 or younger as I believe that even if there is a handful of very good players over that age who could still play in the NHL, the majority who will move up in the next year or two will be under.

I don’t think it is usual that there are 15-20 players in the AHL who are under the age of 23 and were putting up a point per game at time of writing. Usually, it takes an AHL rookie a year or two to adapt to pro hockey and then get the opportunity to succeed. It seems that a lot of these younger players are either better prepared or are getting better opportunities to succeed and run with it.

It is still early and some of these players are bound to fade a little, but some of these prospects might get called up to the NHL and never see the AHL again. Follow the link for the lists… (nov6)

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Have a good week, folks!

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