Lining Up: Increased Usage and Roles for Hertl, Tolvanen, Hagel, Mikheyev, and More
Peter Ryell
2023-11-14
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! This week we will wrap up our review of each team and highlight noteworthy line combinations. In addition, with the upcoming Global Series in Sweden taking place, keep an eye on the schedule and players on your roster who may be missing in action over the next two weeks. Adding someone from the waiver wire who has quality deployment as well as double the games played could be the difference between winning and losing your matchups this week.
Let's dive in.
San Jose
San Jose may be having a difficult time this season but there are still players worth rostering on your teams. Tomas Hertl, arguably the best San Jose currently has to offer while Logan Couture is out, is only 35% rostered in Yahoo leagues. Hertl is also being given the star treatment, seeing an average of over 20:00 of TOI as well as a career high in power-play usage. He has a low shooting percentage at 5.4% but continues to fill peripheral stats well with two and a half shots and one hit per game. Even on a thin roster, we should expect Hertl to notch a few more points than he has been so far with his shooting percentage moving closer to the 10% mark, in addition he can still contribute even if he isn't scoring with such heavy usage.
Seattle
With Seattle having a favourable schedule this week, it is time to add the team's hottest player. Eeli Tolvanen at 28% rostered in Yahoo leagues is currently riding a hot stretch with five points in five games. His line with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde has been heavily used lately, seeing over ten minutes more TOI than the line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers over the last three games. Tolvanen also continues to contribute outside of points with close to two shots and two hits per game while seeing a career high in ice time and power-play usage. Seattle is consistently a team that balances line deployment but while Tolvanen and his group are hot and seeing slightly higher usage, swap him into your rotation.
St. Louis
After a slow start to the season, St. Louis has been picking up the pace lately and in particular the duo of Roberto Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich. Leading the way is Thomas who is on an insane point streak and yet remains under 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues. He currently sits at ten points in his last six games including a four-assist outing against Colorado Saturday night as well as a goal in five consecutive games prior to that. He has been taking a career-high two shots per game and is seeing his highest usage both in terms of power-play deployment and overall ice time. Even better, Thomas is actually cold by some advanced metrics. He has a low secondary assist percentage at 11% and a low 5 on 5 shooting percentage. Plus, his personal shooting percentage of 20% is only 3% higher than his last two seasons. These are all good indicators for continued production and with St. Louis playing four games this week, now is as good a time as ever to bolster your lineup with Thomas.
Tampa Bay
Brandon Hagel may have missed out on assuming Alex Killorn's spot on the top power-play unit, but he has not needed it while being deployed with superstar Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. With five points in his last four games and a point per game average on the season, he has really been taking advantage of his opportunity. Even better is when viewing his advanced stats page on Frozen Tools, we can see that despite a slightly higher than average PDO and points per 60 minutes, he has zero secondary assists so far. So, while one metric will regress down, another will regress up towards the mean and ideally allow for sustained production to an extent moving forward. Plus, it always helps to be playing with Kucherov.
Toronto
After a tumultuous start to the season, Tyler Bertuzzi may finally be rounding into form with three points in his last three games. He has recently been lining up with John Tavares and William Nylander as opposed to where he started on the other top line with Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner, but playing with one of the top point producers in the league at the moment in Nylander may be jumpstarting his production. Bertuzzi is quietly still adding solid peripheral contributions with over two shots and nearly a hit and a half per game, but his ice time is significantly lower than when he was in Detroit. This will be a situation to monitor moving forward as Toronto only plays twice this week and next due to the games in Sweden. However, so long as Bertuzzi is playing with one of the top two lines he will be worth rostering.
Vancouver
Former Toronto cap casualty Ilya Mikheyev has landed in a solid spot this season and is now being deployed alongside Elias Pettersson. He has so far played nearly three-quarters of his time at even strength with the superstar Swede and is comfortably sitting at a career high point pace with nine points in his first eleven games. His advanced metrics indicate that a regression is likely to come, however this prime line deployment could surely help him to reach his best point total to date if he can stay healthy and remain in this spot. Vancouver is not travelling to Sweden and are tops among teams over the next two weeks with seven games, including two games against San Jose and two against Seattle over this stretch. Now would be a good time to gamble on Mikheyev while the deployment and matchup are aligning.
Vegas
Ivan Barbashev continues to receive quality deployment as the third wheel to Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. This line has been together for over 160 minutes already this season or 80% of Barbarshev's time at even strength which is a great indication moving forward that he should consistently be playing in the top six. He has so far been cold with only one point in his last four games, but all of his advanced metrics indicate that a positive regression is coming. Specifically, his 0% secondary assist rating, meaning that some luck will turn and bounces will come his way. Vegas has four games still to come this week and at 38% rostered, Barbashev should be readily available in most leagues.
Washington
With Nicklas Backstrom taking time away from hockey for the rest of the season, Dylan Strome has assumed his role on the power play. So far Strome is cold, but he has zero assists on the season which is bound to change. Additionally, he now is receiving the most power play deployment of his career by getting consistent usage on that top Washington unit.
Winnipeg
Alex Iafallo has been benefitting greatly from his move to Winnipeg as he is currently on pace for a career-high 70 points while playing alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor on the top line. He is also joining the duo on the top power play unit, culminating in Iafallo seeing nearly double the power play usage he was receiving last year on L.A. With eight points in his last five games and at 23% rostered in Yahoo leagues, he may be the kind of waiver wire addition that sticks well past a favourable schedule or matchup. It is rare to have a player who plays on the top line and top power play unit be available for free.
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Mikheyev has been a bit of a frustrating own so far, despite the prime deployment beside EP at even strength. His ice time is down nearly 3 minutes (2:49) per game, with a reduced role on both PP & PK. Currently his peripherals are nearly non-existent. It’s a shame, because he’s just surpassed the breakthrough marker of 200 games played and would likely boom should his ice time return to last seasons level.
Agreed he is tough to own, although nine points in 12 games is not nothing. He might be more of a streaming option as opposed to a season long hold based on schedule or matchup. But last season he played I think close to 40% of the time with EP at even strength. So while the special teams time is down it seems the coaching staff like him on that line… for now.
I would hold him for at least the San Jose matchups and then reevaluate after that.