Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

This is usually the most difficult Goldipucks column to pen, not because of the comparative lack of data, but rather it takes a couple of days to write the column, so I need to pick the players ahead of time and if they then proceed to go scoreless in their next few games or, conversely, explode for several points, that could throw things off. Keep in mind that all the stats for the three players (Filip Forsberg, Adrian Kempe, Lucas Raymond) who are being covered today are from games through Friday November 10th. As usual, stop here and lock in guesses for which of the three has started 2023-24 too hot, who has been too cold, and who's output has been just right, then see how many of the three you nailed.

Filip Forsberg (13 GP, 3 G, 11 A, 49 SOG, 19:01 TOI, 6 PPPts, 4:08 PP, 64.1% PP%)

Originally selected 11th overall by Washington, Forsberg never played a game for the Caps, instead getting dealt to Nashville less than a year after being drafted. Forsberg proceeded to make the Caps look very bad, posting 63 and 64 points in, respectively, his age 20 and 21 seasons. But then things kind of stalled, as Forsberg scored at a 58- to 67-point rate in four of the next five seasons. Then, as he was set to become a UFA, Forsberg tallied 84 points in just 69 games. Those who felt he finally had arrived, however, were disappointed to see him dip to a 69-point-pace last season. For 2023-24, however, he's stormed out of the gate with better than point per game production. Can it last? Yes, indeed.

To get a better sense as to why Forsberg's 2023-24 start is sustainable, it's first important to look more closely at his 2022-23 stats. Although disappointing versus 2021-22, it was the second-best scoring rate of his career. Also, he had 38 points in his first 41 games, before slowing then missing the rest of the season. And keep in mind that when he was on fire in 2021-22, he finished especially strong, with 37 points in his final 26 games, which translates to a full season pace of 117 points. I'm not here to say the same thing is likely to have happened if he didn't get hurt in 2022-23; however, if it had, the result would've been 79 points in 76 games, or pretty close to where his rate is now.

Forsberg also is taking the ice more overall and on the PP even as compared to 2021-22. Despite this, Forsberg's OZ% this season is 50.8%, after it ranged from 58.7% to 61.5% in each of his prior four seasons. It only has one way to go from here and that's up, although if that was to occur he'd likely lose ice time, for a net wash in terms of scoring rate.

Although his ice times are indeed tracking to be at or above his prior career bests, they're not so far ahead of his previous paces. That makes his SOG rate of 3.8 per game all the more impressive. Can it last though, as his SOG rate has been remarkably consistent, ranging from 3.1 to 3.4 per game in each of the last five seasons and his SOG/60 minutes being either 10.8 or 10.9 in those five seasons, but standing at 11.9 as I write this? Also, even during his scorching end to 2021-22, he had 96 SOG in those 26 games, for a rate of 3.7 per contest. So yes, I'd expect it to decline, albeit not by much.

But guess what, as it declines his shooting percentage, which currently stands at 8.2%, of course is bound to rise back to – or at least closer to – his 12.8% career rate. Lest there be concern that all the assists he's racked up in the early going aren't sustainable, keep in mind that only 40% have been secondary – this from a player who's secondary assist rate averaged 44.7% over the last three seasons and whose rate was 35.7% in his career best 2021-22 season.

One thing that bears mentioning is Forsberg's band-aid-boy status, as after three seasons early in his career that saw him play all 82 games, he's never skated for even 70 contests in any of his last six campaigns. But much like Nathan MacKinnon, it doesn't seem to affect his output, as he still was able to put up his usual numbers despite missing more than a dozen games most every season. He's also enough of a veteran such that if somehow he is able to play in 82 games for 2023-24, he shouldn't suffer from fatigue due to his body not being used to that many games.

Looking at Forsberg's luck metrics, his IPP is a good bit above his norm at 87.5%; however, this is a player who three times bested 75% for an overall IPP. His IPP on the PP is also high at 85.7%. But balancing these out is his team's 5×5 SH% while he's on the ice, which stands at only 8.8%. Thus, while his IPPs will indeed drop, his team SH% should rise enough to most likely be offsetting, resulting in a similar scoring pace.

I'll admit that I was one of those who felt Forsberg had upped his effort level solely in order to pad his numbers to get himself a big UFA deal. When he came back to earth last season I felt we'd seen the last of him north of point per game territory. But early returns for 2023-24 suggest he is likely to clear that hurdle again, and on the whole his metrics suggest he's likely right at the proper scoring rate giving his situation. For that reason, Forsberg' 2023-24 thus far has been JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.0, as I'd expect him to finish with a ~90-point scoring pace.

Adrian Kempe (13 GP, 6 G, 9 A, 53 SOG, 19:09 TOI, 4 PPPts, 4:11 PP, 57.1% PP%)

Kempe was a late first round pick in 2014, landing in the NHL for good three seasons later. His first two campaigns saw him fail to produce even a point per every other game; since then though, his scoring rate has not only increased for four straight seasons, but the average rate increase has been nearly ten points. Still, most would not have pegged him to be a point per game threat; yet he stands north of that threshold as I write this. Where will things go for him from here? His scoring rate won't collapse like a house of cards, but he should be a good bit worse as the season progresses.

Looking at Kempe's stats this season versus the previous two, what stands out is after having 62% of his points in the form of goals last season, and 64% the season prior, he suddenly has 60% assists. We can't even chalk it up to a very low SH%, as although his rate is down it's still pretty close to his career rate. The concern with regard to his assists is 44.4% are secondary; and although two seasons ago his secondary assist rate was 57.9%, in his three other most recent seasons it was, respectively, 36.0%, 13.3% and 33.3%. This is indeed uncharted territory for Kempe, with him getting at least a couple of assists which likely were not only undeserved but also unlikely to have been repackaged as goals given his SH% isn't glaringly low.

Looking at his luck metrics, although he has only four PPPts, which isn't a huge number, he's registered a point on 100% of the PPGs which have been scored with him on the ice this season thus far. This from a player whose PP IPP was 52.6% to 56.0% in three of his last four seasons, and a not much higher 64.0% the other campaign. Also, as occurred in each of the past four seasons, Kempe is taking the ice for between 54.5% and 58.0% of his teams PP time. What isn't the same, however, is that percentage has thus far resulted in nearly 90 seconds more PP time than in any of those seasons. Why is that? Because LA has drawn the second more penalties of any NHL team. Although they've been in the top eleven in this area for three straight seasons, their best previously was seventh, so a jump to second is not likely to continue. Plus, LA is a team who doesn't keep its top man advantage unit on the ice for a huge chunk of time, as shown by Kempe's on-ice PP rates in prior seasons.

Long story short, Kempe is scoring too many PPPts for a team that's getting too many PP opportunities. Together those will hurt his production with the man advantage, which is not good considering he's yet to even have a season where he averaged more than one PPPt per every four games. That fact also cuts against him being a point per game player, as going back to 2000-01, there have been 368 instances of forwards appearing in 60+ games and scoring at a point per game or higher rate, but of those only five failed to average above one PPPt per every four games that same season. It was already an uphill battle for Kempe to become a point per game player in general given he's not productive on the man advantage.

Looking at the rest of Kempe's metrics, his OZ% is 53.4%, which, while not unsustainably high, would mark the highest figure for him since his first full season, so it's more likely to go down than stay where it is or rise. Also, his overall IPP is in line with what it's been in past seasons, while his SOG per 60 minutes is up, albeit not so much as to inevitably fall. What will go down, however, is the 5×5 team SH% while he's on the ice, as it stands now at 13.5.0%. To underscore just how high that is, last season a total of just ten forwards had a mark of 12.0% or higher, with the highest being 13.1%. In fact, there are fewer than a handful of instances of 13.0% or higher in the last five seasons, with the top ten among forwards usually being in the 11.5-12.5% range. Needless to say, Kempe's rate is inflated, indicating he's tallied at least a few points he should not have thus far.

When all is said and done with 2023-24, Kempe might be able to see his scoring rate rise yet again; but it's far from assured given the data above, whereas it's all but a guarantee that his current scoring rate cannot be sustained. As such, Kempe has been TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 9.0, suggesting a ~65-point scoring rate is more likely what we should expect once things normalize, as he hasn't banked enough points to be able to stay at a higher rate.

Lucas Raymond (14 GP, 4 G, 6A, 30 SOG, 16:50 TOI, 2 PPPts, 2:28 PP, 41.1% PP%)

Grabbed fourth overall by Detroit in 2020, Raymond stayed in Sweden his draft season and did…..okay. But the Wings were in dire need of offense, so Raymond had his NHL ticket punched in 2021-22 when he was still just 19. He looked great, emerging with 28 points in his first 31 games, before slowing as he hit a rookie wall. Naturally expectations were sky high for his sophomore campaign, which proved to be a disappointment, with Raymond's scoring rate dropping from 57 to 50, again largely due to fading as the season wore on. For 2022-23 he's done pretty good, although not nearly as well as linemates Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat? Should we once again expect Raymond to sputter in the second half? Not this time from what I can see, as he should likely stand to improve.

One key thus far is Raymond's decreased PP time, as Detroit has opted to run its PP1 with two defensemen, plus Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, and David Perron as the forwards. But I suspect that will be temporary, as Raymond is too good to be kept off PP1 for the duration of the season. In fact, in Detroit's last game Shayne Gostisbehere was a healthy scratch and Raymond was on the top unit for the third contest in a row.

Moreover, the Wings actually stood 21st in combined PPGs over the past two seasons, which doesn't sound great until you realize they were 26th in goals overall. And of the 94 PPGs scored by Detroit the prior two seasons, 86 came in games Raymond played, such that he factored into 43% of all PPGs scored by his team when he dressed. That is a very solid rate, and one which should have earned him a continued ticket to PP1; however, that hadn't occurred until just recently. I suspect Raymond's spot on PP1 will remain, and that should lead to heaps more points.

Raymond is also shooting the puck more despite taking the ice less overall. In fact, he had a total of seven games with 4+ SOG in 74 contests in 2022-23, for an average of not even one per every ten contests. Yet already for 2023-24 he has three 4+ SOG games, making it seem like he is indeed ready to break out. And that's another key point, Raymond is poised to hit his 200-game breakout threshold right near the midpoint of the 2022-23 season if he stays healthy. As such, rather than perform his usual vanishing act in the second half, he should instead excel.

Also, the Wings seem very set on keeping Raymond on the first line, as even though he limped out of the gate with points in just three of his first seven games, he remained a fixture on that top line. All that was missing was PP1 time, which, as I noted above, is likely starting to materialize.

What about player comparables? Looking at teen rookie wingers who, like Raymond, had at least 20 goals, 30 assists, 15 PPPts, and 175 SOG dating back to 2000-01, the list consists of just Clayton Keller and Jeff Skinner. We know Skinner had an up and down career and had much higher SOG rates, while Keller took a bit longer to break out than 200 games, but was handicapped by playing for some truly dreadful Coyotes teams. Look at where Keller is now, as his talent was able to rise above the fate of the Coyotes. I find him to be a logical comparison to Raymond, and that bodes well for the young Swede.

In terms of Raymond's other metrics, his secondary assist percentage and his IPPs, both overall and on the PP, are similar to his first two seasons. To me that is a good sign, as he is able to continue to accumulate points despite better talent, mainly in the form of DeBrincat, playing alongside him. And IPP often rises in tandem with a player reaching his breakout threshold, so all is well for him to see his numbers rise.

After Raymond's rookie year splash was followed up by a sophomore season that saw him score at a lower rate, his fantasy standing among many fell. But I believe he still holds every bit the promise he did as a rookie, and perhaps even more given where things stand. If, as I expect, he remains reinstalled on PP1, his numbers should spike, making his 2023-24 thus far TOO COLD, and giving him a rating of 2.25. Look for him to finish the campaign with a 70+ point scoring rate.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.