I'm not sure when Charlie McAvoy is going to fully get his due as a top-five defenceman in the NHL, but he has been one for a while now. He had two assists last night to bring his season total to 11 points in 11 games. To boot, he's dominant defensively, and is no slouch in any of the peripheral categories.

In Down Goes Brown's offseason predictions pool, David Pastrnak was my selection for a player who would hit 100 points (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were not allowed to be selected). After posting a goal and two assists last night, he's currently on pace for 131 points, and is going to walk backward to 100 points this year – assuming he's healthy. Yes, I made that pick over others such as Nikita Kucherov, Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, or any of the Colorado names. Mainly it was because of the health risk, seeing that the others have all missed games recently due to injuries, while Pastrnak doesn't have any recent injury risks, or history of injuries lingering around. Sometimes the safe pick is the right one.

*

A week ago former first-round-pick, and a key piece of the Jason Zucker trade, 23-year-old Calen Addison was traded from the Minnesota Wild to the San Jose Sharks for Adam Raska and a 5^th round pick in 2026. It came as a surprise to many and didn't make a lot of sense from Minnesota's point of view regarding the asset management. We haven't really gotten a great response on it since.

There are two theories as to why Minnesota may be giving up on this asset so cheaply. The first is that Addison was the odd man out on the roster at this point with Jared Spurgeon returning, and he would have been put on waivers and likely lost anyways. This at least gets Minnesota some kind of asset in return.

The other possibility is that the Wild have had preliminary talks with Addison's camp, and his salary ask next year is going to be something that they would walk away from anyways. It could be that Addison's ask is too high, or because of a combination of Minnesota's current cap situation and the cap ceiling next year possibly not raising as high as projected, they are trying to get out in front of any cap issues. This does give me a slight bit of pause when trying to project next year's cap going up as high as some are anticipating, especially when coupled with low attendance numbers across numerous larger markets.

*

Owen Tippett is someone I was high on coming into the season, hitting his breakout threshold this year after finishing last season hot. He's a volume shooter that was up at 1.6 hits per game last year. With four points across two games on Nov 10^th and 11^th, he's now back up to last season's 55-point-pace following a very slow start. This may be the last chance to buy in low on him, as the scoring should continue.

I pegged him for another step forward into the 65-point range in the offseason, and I still think he's a decent bet to get there assuming he stays healthy.

The back-end of this podcast is where I shared a lot of my offseason Tippett thoughts.

Listen to "The howe to guide to Cap Rankings" by Capped Out Hockey. https://t.co/PtE7AyrK1P

— Capped Out Fantasy Hockey Podcast (@cappedouthockey) October 3, 2023

Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim have both been excellent as well this season, with 13 and 14 points respectively through the first 15 games. Konecny has fallen into a minor cold stretch, but should pick things right back up, while Sanheim is just passing his breakout threshold, and the addition of top power play usage has really skyrocketed his production.

There's suddenly lots of room for optimism in Philadelphia.

*

Tage Thompson took an awkward spill last night, left the game, returned, and then later was ruled out for the remained of the game after taking a shot off the hand/wrist area. The news on Thompson after the game was not positive.

Don Granato said Sabres C Tage Thompson is going to miss some significant time.

— Matthew Fairburn (@MatthewFairburn) November 15, 2023

Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt will have to pick up some of the slack at centre, while Alex Tuch returning helps fill some of the void. Victor Olofsson and his two goals from last night should also see some more ice time as well over the coming weeks/months while Thompson is out.

Timo Meier also gave owners a scare after he left his game for a short while, but he did return to add a power play goal, making it three straight games lighting the lamp.

*

Ryan O'Reilly continues his resurgence with the Predators, picking up two secondary assists. He's up to 14 points through 15 games, but all of his underlying numbers are high, and his four minutes per game on the power play is really helping to buoy his numbers as well.

*

Dustin Wolf was sent back to the AHL with Jacob Markstrom back to full health. Markstrom put together a spectacular game, stopping 34 of 35 shots in the win. Wolf will be back up again at some point this season, but getting lots of volume at the AHL level is not hurting him in the meantime.

Cole Caufield had eight of those shots on Markstrom, and you know you're not having an easy night when it's Caufield slinging the puck at you. The 22-year-old is putting 4.1 shots on net per game, and has 14 points through 16 games for his efforts. He's scoring at this rate despite a low personal and team shooting percentage. Reaching 70+ points over 2 games should surprise no one.

*

Up front in Calgary, I finally cut bait with Jonathan Huberdeau in my main cap league, shipping him off basically for Travis Sanheim, and Mikhail Gulyayev. Sanheim we discussed above, while Gulyayev is a favourite of mine from this past draft year. I was upset when he was selected right in front of where I was about to select him, but I'm happy to get him on board now. He's an exceptionally skilled defenceman, now in the Colorado system, and coincidentally his favourite player is Cale Makar.

Gulyayev is signed for another 2.5 seasons in the KHL though (IIRC), so it will be a bit of a wait before he shows up in North America. As with some of the top Russians, when he does come over, he may immediately be an impact fantasy player.

As for Huberdeau, he still has the talent, but I had soured on him enough that moving the $10.5M price tag off of my team was an asset in and of itself, which helped move the deal along. He very well could turn things around, and he should at some point, but in the meantime with his shot rate bottomed out and his lack of confidence, there isn't a lot to expect in the short term. Long term with the Flames once they get some of their issues resolved, he could/should be a point-per-game player again, though his three-year stint in the 90+ point range shouldn't be expected anymore, not to mention the 115-point season. 

While most of the Flames have been slumping, Nazem Kadri is now up to eight points in his last seven games, after putting up only one in his first eight. Kadri, Blake Coleman (three points in his last four games), and the likely soon to be traded Nikita Zadorov (three in five) are the only three Flames on "hot streaks" at the moment.

*

Eventually Dylan Strome is going to record an assist, but for now he leads the NHL in goals by players who have yet to record an assist after scoring his seventh of the year last night.

Charlie Lindgren recorded a 35-save shutout last night, and has looked excellent in his last three games. He's deserving of a larger share of the volume for a suddenly-streaking Washington team that is firmly up in a playoff spot.

*

Kyle Connor scored two goals and hit the crossbar once in Winnipeg's win last night over the Devils. Akira Schmid took the loss, but neither Schmid or Vitek Vanecek have been overly good for the Devils thus far. It's rare that we see in-season goalie trades, so don't count on the Devils going that route. It's possible Schmid gets demoted in order to give Erik Kallgren or Keith Kinkaid a try. Kallgren has struggled thus far in the AHL with Utica, especially compared to his undrafted teammate, 22-year-old Isaac Poulter. There isn't a lot of help coming, so it the end it's likely sink or swim with Vanacek.

*

NEW @TheAthletic – Mike Sullivan has once again adjusted the system. Video evidence of the new look Penguins, inside the new system and why it fits this roster, some before/after comparisons. Big time adjustments in here.https://t.co/Gk2Rw9b9sz

— Jesse Marshall (@jmarshfof) November 14, 2023

For those of you with an Athletic subscription you can dive into the "why" of the systems a little more, but the bottom line of the recent changes made by the Penguins is that their sudden dominance at both ends is something to take seriously. This isn't just a hot-streak to go selling them off while you can, this should be a season-long wave.

Another three goals and an assist for Sidney Crosby tonight. Ho hum. The 36-year-old has 19 points in 14 games this season, and has only been held off the scoresheet once so far.

*

Seattle's depth chart on the FrozenTools website shows nearly the entire team with either a cold or a hot symbol beside their name. Over the last few games it has been Jaden Schwartz, Eeli Tolvanen, and Vince Dunn carrying the offence. Schwartz's current 75-point-pace is one that he has only topped once in his career, and that was back on the Blues when he was playing 19:30 a night on the top line. He's currently down under 18 minutes a night, with a career-high shooting percentage and IPP, to go along with a reduced number of offensive zone starts. His numbers are going to fall down very soon.

As for Tolvanen, a lot of the same notes written above for Tippett apply here too. He's at his breakout threshold, stuffs the peripherals, and has an outside shot at 60 points. No underlying concerns for either him of Vince Dunn (14 points in 16 games). Both should continue fairly reliably the rest of the way. The rest of the offence meanwhile might provide a bit of a buy-low opportunity.

*

See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.