Welcome back my Salary Cap-friendlies! Last week we talked about all things goaltending, so this week I thought it would be good to go into a little rookie-check in. It's like in your first year of college and you haven't talked to your family since they dropped you off, it's just good to check back. Specifically, the first three picks in last year's draft. Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, and Adam Fantilli.

I think today we're too quick to come to a conclusion and say that something is either the "best ever" or the "worst ever", but I do think when talking about this rookie class there's a case to be made here if things keep going on the path they currently are on, that this could be a very good (if not historically good), first three picks in an NHL draft. Time will tell if this is a deep draft class like say 2019 has turned out to be, but at least for now the top looks to very strong. Think back to last year's draft though, I felt like there were more players that could have gone in the first round that fell, and vice versa. This is probably the last draft class that had any sort of limited exposure due to COVID so that might have had something to do with it, but just watching last year I felt that players taken in the middle of the first round, would have maybe been there later.

Regardless, when it comes to rookies in fantasy I typically stay away. I know I've said this before but so far, I can only remember drafting (key word there) two rookies in my main draft, and that just has to do with playing NHL speed along with a full 82-game schedule that comes along with it. It can be harder for players to keep weight on, and I've noticed this more with players coming out of college where you typically just workout during the week, with games on the weekend. Still, all three of the players that we'll talk about here are currently rostered in my main league, with Bedard being the only one that was taken in our draft. Bedard was taken all the way up at 13^th and I think there's a roadmap to where he doesn't fall much further than that in drafts to come, if not taken higher.

Before our check-in as well just want to note that for dynasty leagues I, of course know, that if you have any of these three players, you'll have them for the long haul. Even in keeper leagues where you may only keep three to five skaters, I think there's a very strong case to be made that any of these three are on your keeper list come next season. Also, for salary purposes I'm going to refrain from really making a guess on the AAV each will sign once their ELC is completed and that just has to do with health as well as salary cap circumstances down the road. If we're just taking a look at Chicago, Anaheim, and Columbus though, I feel like all three will definitely sign with the club that drafted them and I'd imagine the AAV would be somewhere over $2.4M but no more than $8M (in the case of Bedard). I will say though, that given the age of these three I would not be the least bit surprised if each signed a bridge contract to really cash in on their second NHL extension following. More and more players are signing shorter-term to do just that and although there's risk involved to "bet on yourself" so to speak, the salary cap is only going to increase, and these players are young enough to sign two NHL contracts before any of them hit their age 30 season. I can go on about entry-level contracts and how I think the CBA should make a change to the term on them but that's for another article for another time, for now let's talk rookies.

Connor Bedard – C – Chicago – 18 yrs old
Contract: $950k – Two years remaining – ELC

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

13           9              4              13           2              19:22     4:14        43           10           6

So far, the can't-miss prospect is as advertised, Connor Bedard has been great out of the gate to start this season leading this rookie class in points so far. Unfortunately, I haven't gotten to see him live just yet but a close friend that has said that he's, "slippery in the offensive zone". I don't know why, but that just seems like the perfect way to describe his game. The one aspect of his game though that I did not have on my Connor Bedard BINGO card was him as more of a volume shooter. Don't get me wrong, I expected him to be the trigger man on whatever line the Hawks put together with him, but I did not see this type of shot volume coming. I anticipated coming in though that goals would not be difficult for him to come by, so much so I think there's a real chance he ends up in the mid to high 30's in that regard. Assists however, those would be more difficult as this isn't a Hawks club with a fair deal of talent to put around him and this isn't exactly the greatest club on the power play either. 

Bedard has been fun to watch, with nine points in his last six games played and has gone out against some really good teams here in the early going. The clock is always ticking on a player's contract, even once it's newly signed, but for the Hawks here on what I can only assume will be a "blank slate" roster so-to-speak I think it's all about finding the right players to put around Bedard. I wouldn't be surprised if given the Hawks prospect depth along with the familiarity that Bedard has with some of the players on it from WJC, that the Hawks don't try and look internally first. It's always easier I've felt, to sign a player to an extension if there's a good relationship in house, than pay the free agent sticker tax to bring someone in. If you're rostering Bedard in dynasty or keeper leagues, I wish you nothing but the best and enjoy what should hopefully be a great career.

Leo Carlsson – C – Anaheim – 18 yrs old
Contract: $950k – Two years remaining – ELC

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

11           6              2              8              3              18:18     3:34        23           5              4

I have some Ducks fans that I'm very close with and I remember texting them that one, sure it again stinks to miss out on the first pick in a draft, but that I thought they can't go wrong with what would be on the board at pick #2. Afterall, Leo Carlsson or Adam Fantilli is both great "consolation prizes" if you will, but I really leaned towards Carlsson and that went back to even this time last season. Sure, I can't say that I was griding tape on SHL games, but what I saw really impressed me. To go along with a larger 6'3 frame I just saw very good scoring ability and sometimes you just have to go with your gut. I thought similar things along with excellent skating skills with his now-teammate Mason McTavish and that was someone I got to see in WJC and the OHL.

Carlsson seems to be on a pitch count of sorts early on, but it hasn't hindered his offensive production when he's in the lineup. Does it burn you sometimes when you're rostering Anaheim in DFS with a late swap coming in at 9:30 CST? Sure, but we forgive you Anaheim because Carlsson has been fun to watch so far. I also think that out of the three rookies here, there's an argument to be made that Carlsson is coming in with the "best" hockey situation. Rookie head coach sure, but I like some of the pieces that this Ducks club already had in place prior to them drafting him second overall.

Assuming at some point this season, we see Carlsson play each and every night, I think he'll continue his early success. I don't see why he couldn't be in the high 40's for points and for fantasy/DFS he will be a start on most nights but just be leery on if the Ducks decide to bench him on a given slate. 

Adam Fantilli – C – Columbus – 28 yrs old
Contract: $950k – Two years remaining – ELC

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

16           4              5              9              2              15:27     2:48        38           9              7

Adam Fantilli is the one player of these three that admittedly I have caught the least amount of at the NHL level but that's just a circumstance of me not catching a lot of Columbus games. Sorry, Jackets. Out of the trio here he has the lowest TOI, which is worrisome. Thinking to last season, Calder winner Matthew Beniers also had lower ice time. Granted he didn't have the two players we just talked about in front of him, but the idea is he still had an excellent rookie campaign.

I could almost see this Columbus club go either way right now toward making some sort of splash in free agency to make a run or status-quo. I know for Fantilli this was a difficult circumstance to walk into with the Columbus coaching debacle, but overall, I think he's been good to start the season. If there's one thing about Fantilli's game that I think is strong, is his ability to play with different types of wingers and I think that's something that does make him a unique player. I could see him being a rookie that should in all likelihood reach the 40-point mark this season.

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.