It has not been the start to the season Buffalo wanted (7-8-1) and the injuries are starting to rack up. It started before the season with the Achilles injury to winger Jack Quinn and has included winger Alex Tuch for the last week (more on him in a bit). The latest was Tage Thompson, who got cut in his game on Tuesday but returned to the ice. It got worse as he was injured on a blocked shot and left the game, not returning after that one. We got an update on Wednesday:

Said on radio last hour a few weeks to a little over a month. https://t.co/0FOXNpy6Uh

— Mike Harrington (@ByMHarrington) November 15, 2023

Considering the range of options that could have happened from all the injuries he appeared to sustain, Tage returning well before Christmas seems to be good news. Buffalo can ill-afford to have another month as they just did, however, if they want to make a playoff push in the second half of the year.

JJ Peterka took Thompson's spot on the top PP unit at the end of Tuesday's game. That is good news for his fantasy value, and we should see a lot of ice time for Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens in the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, Tuch was still not at Sabres practice as he's missed a handful of games with an upper-body injury. This is starting to get worrisome as the coaches hoped he'd return for one of their games last weekend but is still not at the point where he’s practicing. Coach Granato said after the team’s practice on Wednesday that they were looking to Tuch being on the ice on Thursday, but at this point, we have to see it before we can believe it.

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An update on Gabriel Vilardi:

#NHLJets Arniel says Vilardi is still not ready to join his teammates in regular practices. The potential for accidental collisions or unnecessary contact isn't worth rushing him back. The target remains next Wednesday in Tampa to resume full practices. @TSN_Edge https://t.co/HVYXtTq4pD

— John Lu (@JohnLuTSNWpg) November 15, 2023

Hopefully he can return at the end of the month, if not very early in December. We will keep everyone apprised, but Alex Iafallo has fit in very well on the top line while the middle-6 lines have each done their part. It'll be interesting to see where Vilardi fits if this team keeps rolling for a couple weeks.

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A positive update on Dallas defenceman Thomas Harley:

Thomas Harley is back on the ice for an optional skate this morning.

He has some pretty noticeable bruising around his eye.

— Lia Assimakopoulos (@Lassimak) November 15, 2023

He had been ran from behind by Brandon Duhaime over the weekend and missed Tuesday's game. Hopefully he can return to action soon. He was having a nice season for the Stars.

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Columbus put Emil Bemstrom on waivers. He is clearly too good for the AHL with 16 goals and 33 points in 25 games, but hasn’t been able to stick with the Jackets at the NHL level. I am still intrigued by him, though; guys with his production and shot volume in the AHL in their early 20s, even in just a 25-game sample, are worth taking a chance on.

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We got an update on the Edmonton injuries:

🔁 #Oilers roster moves 🔁

🔹Defenceman Philip Broberg, forward Adam Erne & forward Raphael Lavoie have been recalled from the @Condors.
🔸 Forwards Mattias Janmark & Dylan Holloway have been placed on LTIR.#LetsGoOilers pic.twitter.com/L8JZd026Nq

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) November 15, 2023

That is unfortunate for Dylan Holloway though we'll have to wait and see if this is a season-ending thing or something he can return from in the next couple months.

I will be interested to see how Philip Broberg does under a new coach. This is a high draft pick that has (rightly) drawn a lot of criticism. Having him turn into a useful NHLer in the short-term would go a long way to shoring up the depth on the blue line.

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Information from Arizona is always hard to come by, but we did get a note that Juuso Välimäki will be out a while:

I don't have details but it sounds like Juuso Välimäki is going to be out for a while.
I'm also hearing that the Coyotes will recall D Vladislav Kolyachonok from the Tucson Roadrunners. https://t.co/OQ5TkotoCO

— Craig Morgan (@CraigSMorgan) November 15, 2023

Välimäki hasn't been helpful in the fantasy realm but his injury does two things: it takes (likely) their best defensive defenceman out of the lineup and it should lead to more ice time for others on the blue line. The first part will hurt their goalies (even more than they have already) while the latter could be a boon for JJ Moser. He is the only other regular left-shot defender on the roster (Travis Dermott also is a lefty but has been in and out of the lineup). Moser has been above 20 minutes for four straight games as it is and will likely see that be a regular thing with Välimäki injured. Just a note for multi-cat players.

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Last week in these Ramblings, the change in shot rates – namely the rise in missed and blocked shots – was our topic. Changing shot volumes can have a big effect on just about everything fantasy-related, so if players are blocking more shots or missing the net more often, that matters for us.

That leads us to another area: what is it doing to goal scoring? It is worth taking a look at what's happened so far this year, how it compares to recent seasons, and how that can inform fantasy hockey decisions moving forward.

Data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated, and as the afternoon of Wednesday, November 15^th.

To this point, there have been 474 team games played. Looking at just 5-on-5, this is what we have for shot attempts, shots, goals, and expected goals per 60 minutes:

That doesn't really tell us a lot so let's look at what happened at roughly the same points of the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons:

As mentioned last week, shot attempts are rising but shots on goal are not, so more attempts are either missing the net or being blocked. However, shot quality, as determined by expected goals-for metrics, have steadily risen. That improved focus on shot quality has seen a jump in scoring from two years ago and it's remained pretty close this year when compared to last.

There is a very small decline in goals per minute at 5-on-5 and that's interesting to note because goals per game is bang-on (3.18 per game per team) to what happened last year (3.18). The difference here is that last year's total is the full season while this year's total is about 20% of the season. Goal scoring tends to decline as the season wears on, so let's look at that.

Here is where the average goal-per-60 marks ranked over the last three seasons using the same timeframes in the graphics listed above:

• 2021-22: 2.88 goals/60
• 2022-23: 3.11 goals/60
• 2023-24: 3.11 goals/60

The difference between the 3.11/60 here and the 3.18 goals/game earlier is the latter includes overtime while the former does not. Regardless, we are bang on the pace that was set a year ago at this time for goal scoring.

Knowing this can help fantasy owners. If shot-on-goal rates are declining (which they are) while goal scoring remains stable (which it is), that hurts goalies a lot. Netminders allowing the same rate of goals against while facing fewer shots is going to hurt save percentages; that plays out as Hockey Reference shows a league-wide save percentage of .903, down from .904 last year, despite stable goal rates.

Again, though, that is a function of a full year in 2022-23. We aren't at that point yet, so we need to compare similar timeframes. That is how this works out:

• After 474 team games a year ago, the league-wide save percentage was .901.
• After 474 team games this year, the league-wide save percentage is .898.

(The difference between H-Ref save percentage and NatStat save percentage is due to what is counted, and what is not, as a shot. There are small differences that can have a big impact, but the two save percentages listed above are both from NatStat, so it's the same source for both occasions.)

So, teams are scoring at an identical rate as this time last season, but goalies are clearly having a worse go in net. Perhaps that fantasy goalie that we owners are cursing out for a .904 save percentage or whatever isn't nearly as bad as we might think.

It will be interesting to follow this as the season wears on. The game has been revolutionized over the last decade, and the speed at which that change is happening might be accelerating. We will need a lot more data than the first month-ish of the season to make determinations, but the improved focus on shot quality across the league is having a clear impact on shot rates, goals off those shots, and save percentages. That is a lot of fantasy impact, and something to keep in mind when looking at fantasy netminders.

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Edmonton snuck out a 4-3 overtime win at home to Seattle on Wednesday. Evander Kane finally broke through fantasy-wise with a hat trick on five shots and a pair of hits, one of those tallies being the overtime winner. Evan Bouchard had a trio of assists with a shot, two blocks, and two hits while Connor McDavid scored his fourth goal of the year.

Jared McCann scored in the loss for the Kraken and he's now up to seven goals this year. He may not get back to the 40-goal plateau but he's certainly going to be useful in the fantasy game again.

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Carter Hart stopped 31 of 32 shots in Philadelphia's 3-1 victory over Carolina. Hart is now up to a .921 save percentage on the year with five wins in nine starts.

Travis Konecny's first-period goal held as the game-winner, and he now has 10 tallies on the season. He has 14 points in 16 games and just two power play points. Imagine his fantasy season if their power play was any good?

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Colorado laid an 8-2 beatdown on Anaheim with the Ducks on the second of their back-to-back. The scoreline accurately reflected the play as the visiting team did not have any ability to carry the play at any point.

Big fantasy nights were had from the following:

• Valeri Nichushkin (two goals, five shots, two hits)
• Joel Kiviranta (one goal, two assists, two shots, two hits)
• Cale Makar (three assists, five shots, one block)
• Devon Toews (one goal, one assist, one block)
• Sam Girard (one goal, one assist, three shots, one block, one hit)

Lukas Dostal was in net for all eight goals on the Anaheim side.

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Captain Quinn Hughes scored the overtime winner in Vancouver's 4-3 win over the New York Islanders. He is now one goal away (6) from last year's total (6) and American Thanksgiving isn't for a week yet. He needs three more to set a career-high and he's almost certainly going to get there before Christmas. Hughes had a pair of assists with six shots to go with that tally. He

JT Miller and Brock Boeser both had a goal and an assist in the win.

Bo Horvat scored his fifth goal of the year while Brock Nelson and Pierre Engvall both had power play tallies.