Goalies (in fantasy hockey):

I'm going to discuss this from a number of angles. First, for our Yahoo or Fantrax fantasy leagues, goalies tend to make up an inordinate percentage of categories (or points, to a lesser degree) compared to skaters. The current Yahoo default skater categories are Goals, Assists, Shots on Goal, Power-Play Points, Plus/Minus, and Hits – six total;  and for goalies there are Wins, Saves, Goals-Against Average, and Save Percentage – four, or 40% of your matchups.  If your "custom" league counts Blocked Shots and/or Faceoff Wins, that percentage drops to 33%. Better, sure, but I play in two leagues that also count GK shutouts. My point is that whether drafting, trading, or streaming fantasy players, your netminders are more important than those other guys. 

And that may be fair. It's the most important position for each of the 32 NHL teams. Ask Jay Woodcroft how important, right? Coaches with goalies who succeed don't often get fired.

Goalies, however, are known to be incredibly inconsistent. Just this season, about 15-17 games in (20% of the season already), one goalkeeper who last season had a 24-6-3 record with a respectable 2.64 GAA…well, Pheonix Copley can barely be trusted as a backup this season and has one win with a 4.58 GAA. His save percentage is under 0.800. How about the goalie that Copley chased out of Los Angeles? Jonathan Quick, now 4-0-1 for the NY Rangers, with a GAA of 1.98. His parents probably drafted him for their fantasy teams this year, but tens of thousands have added him since (currently rostered in 25% of Yahoo leagues, 32% in Fantrax). 

So, what do we do about all this?  Recognize first that there is a very limited tier of elite netminders, and having/keeping one of these guys is really important. After that, ride the hot hand and have no loyalty to the position that we lovingly call "voodoo."

The last 30 days, with at least three starts, the best include: Charlie Lindgren, 3-0-0, 1.01 GAA, 0.969 SV%, and others whose play exceeds their hype: Thatcher Demko, Cam Talbot, Jeremy Swayman, Adin Hill, and Quick.  Backups Semyon Varlamov and James Reimer too – although they each lost matches Thursday. Preseason Vezina favorite Connor Hellebuyck's stats – 0.897 SV%, 2.91 GAA. Not award-worthy. If you want to judge by Wins?  Top-tier draftees Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, and (injured) Andrei Vasilevskiy have seven wins combined, and the uber-inconsistent Sergei Bobrovsky?  Eight. These men are voodoo, indeed. 

For DFS, my best advice is to pick a team that you think will win, but any other one-day "science" requires magic, or lottery numbers. The points for a win will help you, especially if you didn't have to select the most expensive option.  

Saturday's DFS matchups

Chasing Gretzky – Columbus Blue Jackets @ Washington Capitals.

Father Time has clearly paid a visit to the Great Eight, and taken his favorite center (Nicklas Backstrom) for an extended absence, but Alexander Ovechkin ($7500) won't be losing this battle without a fight. Count on six shots and two goals. The above-highlighted Lindgren ($8000) should get the nod in net. John Carlson ($6000), another vintage Capital at age 33, has averaged over 27 minutes of ice time in his past dozen games, and is the unquestioned power-play quarterback. On the other side, only the San Jose Sharks have allowed more shots on goal than the Jackets (per Natural Stat Trick), who have lost seven in a row. 

Quality or quantity?  St. Louis Blues @ Los Angeles Kings.

The problem I had with picking Vancouver tonight (I didn't), was that their scoring has been top-heavy to a fault.  In one of my fantasy leagues, five Canucks rank in the league's top-15 players – J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser ($7200, the lowest cost of the group), and Demko.  One of these men absolutely fits into your DFS play, but they've priced themselves out of rationally stacking the bunch, no? That's why I chose to play the Kings. Adrian Kempe leads L.A. with 16 points and 57 shots, tied with Kevin Fiala ($6200), and closely followed by Anze Kopitar ($5900), who has 15.  My stack, though, could have room for Trevor Moore ($5100), 13 points and 40 SOG, and budding star Quinton Byfield ($4100), who had a single point (goal) in his first five contests, then 12 points in his next nine. Drew Doughty ($4600) may have a few gray hairs (just age 32, honestly), but runs the Kings' PP and is underpriced tonight. He's valued $600 less than Kaiden Guhle, just silliness. 

Taking the Over?  Arizona Coyotes @ Winnipeg Jets. 

Really?? The over on this one?  Well, in the Coyotes' past 11 games, win or lose, they've tallied three scores in 10 of them. The Jets have posted three or more nine times in 12 games, averaging just under four per game. Cole Perfetti ($4300) has points in 10 of 11 games (5G, 7A) and a five-game goal streak – a good play if Kyle Connor ($8500), with his 30 points and 68 SOG, doesn't fit under your DraftKings cap. For Arizona, remember that the Jets are on a back-to-back, and Connor Hellebuyck will be wearing a baseball cap. I'll play Nick Bjugstad($3500) from the Coyotes, who's set to get more time and opportunity with Barrett Hayton on the mend. 

Rerun and Revenge:  Don't completely forget the rematch between Montreal and Boston. My tea leaves and Ouija board agree that the Bruins and Jeremy Swayman ($8500) will be favored at home in the TD Garden. The Rangers visit the wounded New Jersey Devils, with memories still fresh of their first-round playoff exit last spring. Consider Vincent Trocheck ($6400), playing second-line center, and the suddenly hot Alexis Lafreniere ($4200).

As is always the case, you can't fit everyone into a nine-player lineup with a $50,000 play-money cap.

My DraftKings lineup:

Centers: Kopitar and Bjugstad

Wings: Ovechkin, Boeser, and Perfetti

Defense: Carlson and Kevin Shattenkirk ($3500)

Goaltender: Lindgren

Utility: Byfield

Contingency – if Darcy Kuemper ($8200) starts, sub Hampus Lindholm ($3200) for Shattenkirk

Last week:

37.5 points from Zach Hyman's hat trick, four from Connor McDavid – just one assist short of "in the money," but no.  Edmonton's reawakening accurately predicted, Boston's overtime loss to the Canadiens, not so much. That GK win could have, would have…yeah. 

Hockey Saturday starts at 11AM ET with the third game from the Avicii Arena in Stockholm. Make sure your fantasy rosters are set…and good luck!