Lining Up: Seguin’s Line Streaking; Rust Rolling; Nyquist Producing
Peter Ryell
2023-11-21
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up. Following our three-week series on a noteworthy player from each team, we will now look back over the last three weeks to see how different line combinations have performed and identify some players who are on hot streaks. Note that all stats are prior to last night's games.
Let's dive in.
Using Frozen Tools, let's take a look at the top-ten even strength lines from the last three weeks.
Matt Duchene – Tyler Seguin – Mason Marchment
Starting over in Dallas, surprisingly we have a line of Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment leading the way for the team at even strength with ten goals for and only two against in this span. Duchene seems to be meshing well with his new team, leading the charge with a whopping nine points in his last five games and is on pace for 72 points. Not including his 90 points in the 2021-2022 season, this would be his best output since the last time he was on Ottawa and Columbus. The advanced metrics indicate that he is currently lucky and bound to regress as indicated by a high 5 on 5 shooting percentage at 17.7% and a high PDO at 1108 but don't be afraid to add him while he is on the streak or try to sell high.
Joining Duchene on a streak, to a lesser extent, is Tyler Seguin who has six points in his last three games. This recent production brings him back in line around the mid-50-point pace he has had since his injury in the 2020-2021 season. Much like Duchene, the advanced metrics also tell us that his recent run is unsustainable and bound to regress so don't be afraid to let go of Seguin when the tap turns off.
Rounding out the trio is Mason Marchment who has three points in his last four games but unlike his linemates, is not playing at an unsustainable rate and could be due for a bit of luck to go his way if Duchene and Seguin can stay hot for awhile longer. He should likely be rostered in only the deepest of leagues but Marchment can also provide some additional value with nearly two shots and one hit per game.
Bryan Rust is a staple of the top-six in Pittsburgh and no stranger to playing alongside the ageless wonder in Sidney Crosby. He has played the vast majority of his time at even strength with Crosby and Jake Guentzel over the past few seasons and recently has found himself on a hot streak while once again playing on the top line. Rust currently has four points in his past four games is back up to just over three shots per game after a slight dip last season. He is also receiving a little more time on ice compared to last season, almost a minute more which is a good indicator that he is receiving solid deployment.
Rust can be streaky so consider streaming him in if you can while he is hot and especially while Crosby continues to thrive.
Ryan O'Reilly was highlighted two weeks ago but the recent addition to join him and Filip Forsberg is Gustav Nyquist. In the last three weeks, the line has combined for nine goals for and only four against with a solid 60 CF%, indicating that they are driving play against their opposition. For his part, Nyquist is on a hot streak with five points in his last four games and is seeing nearly two and a half minutes of PPTOI as well. Nyquist is currently on pace for 48 points but when examining his advanced metrics, he has room to grow. He has a low shooting percentage at 6.3% and a low secondary assist percentage at only 12.5%. Both would be due for regression if he can maintain this spot on the top line and needless to say, this would be a huge upgrade for his value as opposed to playing with his other frequent linemates in Colton Sissons and Yakov Trenin.
Nashville also has three more games to come this week, including a game on a very light Sunday. If you are unable to squeeze Nyquist Wednesday and Friday, consider adding him Sunday so long as he is on this line.
Moving to a player not on the list above but who is being given quality deployment with the man advantage, James van Riemsdyk has been holding down a spot on one of the better power plays over the last few weeks in Boston. He is riding a hot streak right now with seven points in his past six games while playing on that top unit and is currently on pace for almost 60 points. The 60.7% of power play share that he is receiving is the most that he has seen in almost a decade. Better yet, when we examine his advanced metrics, he is a bit lucky at the moment but does have a low secondary assist rate at only 28.6%. Additionally, his shooting percentage of 13.2% is only one percentage point above his average of the last three years. These indicators mean that his current pace is not unsustainable so long as he is receiving this quality deployment.
Boston has three games still to come this week but given the density of games on Wednesday and Friday, consider streaming van Riemsdyk in on Saturday which is a lighter day.