Ramblings: McDavid’s Back; Jake Has Good Neighbours; Buying Low on Gustavsson; Kochetkov; Merzlikins (Nov 27)

Brennan Des

2023-11-27

Shea Theodore was recently placed on Injured Reserve, a move which requires him to miss at least a week of action. Given that he last played on November 22nd, Theodore won't be eligible to face the Flames on Monday or the Oilers on Tuesday. The earliest he can return is Thursday against the Canucks. However, his status for that game will obviously depend on his health.

Theodore has been excellent this season, tallying 18 points through 20 appearances. Notably, 10 of those points have come with the man advantage as he's enjoyed a whopping 80% share of Vegas' total power-play time. That's a sizeable step up from the 53% he saw last year.

For Theodore to take this step forward, Alex Pietrangelo had to take a step back. Pietrangelo went from seeing 58% of Vegas' man-advantage minutes last year, to 28% this year. He's on pace for 46 points right now after pacing for 61 last season. Fortunately, Pietrangelo should see more power-play opportunity while Theodore is sidelined. With Theodore absent on Saturday, Pietrangelo saw 74% of Vegas' total PP time.

Alex Lyon stopped 37 of the 38 shots Minnesota threw at him en route to a 4-1 win on Sunday. He's now started three of the Red Wings' last four games. Although he lost his first start to Toronto, he wasn't a detriment to Detroit in that game. Since then, he's beaten the Devils and Wild. Although Ville Husso has been the Red Wings' starter, his tenure with Detroit has been pretty disappointing. It's too early to suggest Lyon will threaten Husso for that starting role, but if you need a goaltender for your fantasy team right now, Lyon is widely available. I see no problem riding the hot hand until temperatures drop.   

While Lyon roared, Filip Gustavsson whimpered. Minnesota's 25-year-old netminder allowed three goals on Sunday despite facing just 22 shots. Since posting a shutout in his first game of the season, Gustavsson has allowed three or more goals in nine of his 10 appearances. He's posted a save percentage above .880 in just two of those 10 games. That's a shocking fall-off for a netminder that posted a .931 save percentage and 2.10 GAA through 39 games last year. It's worth noting that last season, he posted his worst numbers early on and elevated his game during the last three quarters of the campaign. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a long enough track record for me to confidently suggest the same thing will happen again this year.

With regards to Gustavsson bouncing back, I'm encouraged by the fact that Minnesota is playing well defensively this season, sporting an expected goals against rate that ranks ninth lowest in the league (via NaturalStatTrick). It's important to make a distinction here, because although the team is winless in its last seven games, they haven't been hanging their goalies out to dry. In fact, I'd say Gustavsson has been letting the team down more than they've been letting him down. But honestly, that's probably a good thing if you're hoping for him to bounce back. Gustavsson's talent is undeniable; he's enjoyed success at every level he's played at. I think it's a smaller ask for one talented individual to rediscover his game, than it would've been for a whole team to suddenly play better defense.

Shayne Gostisbehere registered a point on all four goals Detroit scored Sunday, giving him 18 points through 19 outings this year. Ghost was consistent early in the year, posting a point in each of his first five games. His production has been more sporadic lately as he's found the scoresheet in just four of his last 14 appearances. With his overall numbers currently buoyed by a few big outings, I'm wary of his rest-of-season fantasy outlook. That wariness is magnified by his shooting percentage, which currently sits at 14%. That's a decent bit higher than the ~9% conversion rate he's posted in recent years.

Despite scoring two power-play goals on Sunday, David Perron's overall output remains underwhelming as he's on pace for just 45 points. This is a player who scored 56 points last season, and consistently flirted with a 70-point pace in the years before that. He's averaging 15 minutes of ice time this year, a significant drop from the 17-18 minutes he averaged in recent seasons. More concerning is the role he's playing lately, skating beside Andrew Copp and Robby Fabbri on the third line, starting way more shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone. Although he's still seeing prominent power-play time, his even-strength deployment and production makes it hard to roster him in most formats.

Jake Neighbours scored two goals on Sunday, extending his point streak to five games. Prior to this hot streak, Neighbours had a measly two points in 15 games, averaging just 12 minutes of action a night, with no power-play time. He's earned more opportunity with his strong play recently. On Sunday, Neighbours skated 17 and a half minutes, enjoying an 89% share of St. Louis' power-play time against the Blackhawks. The 21-year-old forward is starting to show the offensive ability that got him drafted 26th overall in 2020. After spending most of the first quarter beside depth players, Jake is currently neighbouring Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas on St. Louis' top line. 

The Blues scored a power-play goal on Sunday, giving them three power-play markers in their last four games, during which they've seen 15 opportunities. That translates to a 20% success rate – significantly better than the 6.5% rate they held through their first 16 games of the campaign. Players like Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich had seen their overall production suffer due to those early power-play struggles. Fortunately, with St. Louis starting to turn the corner on the man advantage, guys like Kyrou and Buchnevich should see their fantasy stock rise.

The Blue Jackets were in line to upset Carolina on Sunday, holding onto a 2-1 lead with roughly three minutes left in the game. The Hurricanes scored two goals late, robbing Columbus of what would have been their first three-game winning streak of the season.

Elvis Merzlikins deserved a better fate but walked away with a loss after stopping 40 of the 43 shots he faced. Over the past two weeks – a span of seven games – Merzlikins sports an impressive .918 save percentage. His record and goals against average may be lacklustre due to the team in front of him, but he seems on track to bounce back from last year's abysmal showing.  

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Johnny Gaudreau tallied a goal and an assist against the Hurricanes on Sunday, giving him five points in five games since that infamous crunch-time benching against the Coyotes on November 16th. They weren't the prettiest points he's ever tallied, but finding the scoresheet more often should help him build confidence and elevate his play. After posting just six points in his first 17 outings of the year, he's finally showing signs of life. There's a chance he's a free agent in your league as many managers lost patience with him because of his early struggles. Currently available in 42% of Yahoo formats, Gaudreau could be a great waiver wire addition this week. The Blue Jackets have an optimal schedule with four games on light nights, so it should be easy to incorporate him into your lineup without having to bench anyone else on your roster.

Pyotr Kochetkov had a relatively easy night on Sunday, stopping 21 of the 23 shots he faced to earn his second victory of the season. It wasn't an overly impressive performance, but considering Antti Raanta allowed 8 goals on 14 shots from Tampa on Friday, Kochetkov likely did enough to start the Hurricanes' next game, scheduled for Tuesday in Philadelphia. The 24-year-old netminder should draw some favourable matchups this week with Carolina set to face the Islanders and Sabres after the Flyers. Those are three teams performing below-average offensively. Even an average level of netminding should result in strong fantasy numbers thanks to Carolina's strong defense. The thing is, Frederik Andersen, Raanta and Kochetkov have been performing below average so far this year. With Andersen sidelined due to health issues and Raanta in poor form, Kochetkov has a big opportunity in front of him. If he performs well this week, he could start establishing himself as the team's starter going forward.

On Sunday, in his 12th game of the season, Andrei Svechnikov scored his first goal. His shooting percentage currently sits at 3.4% – well below the 10-13% range we're used to seeing. His goal total has been limited by some bad luck so far, but the tides may be turning now that he's gotten that first one out of the way. Although Svechnikov has been on Carolina's second power-play unit for most of the year, Sunday marked his return to the top group. He was on the ice for 88% of Carolina's total time with the man advantage.

Ryan McDonagh posted an assist during Sunday's 3-2 victory over the Jets. He has four points in three games after missing three weeks with a lower-body injury. McDonagh is currently on pace for 38 points, which would be his best output since 2018-2019, when he posted 46. However, looking at his deployment, which features defensive minutes and a lack of power-play opportunity, I wouldn't expect a high level of offense going forward. That being said, there's no harm riding this hot streak until the wheels fall off. This offense is a nice bonus to the hits and blocks he reliably provides.

Connor McDavid entered (American) Thanksgiving Weekend with 16 points in 16 games, a pedestrian point-per-game pace that falls below lofty expectations we have for the league's top talent. After posting four points on Friday, McDavid racked up five against the Ducks on Sunday. Nine points in two games and all of a sudden, he's at a 114-point pace. If there was ever a window to buy low on McDavid, he slammed it shut this weekend.  

Thanks for reading! If you ever have fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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