DFS Saturday: Cane Attack
Brad Hayward
2023-12-02
It's not much surprise, at the season's quarter pole, that Alexander Ovechkin leads the Washington Capitals in scoring. But it may surprise readers that of the 32 NHL teams, all of the other 31 have at least one player ahead of Ovi's 14 points. Okay, try this one – Jonathan Huberdeau, after an awful start, is tied for the Calgary Flames' points leader (15). References in this article are from QuantHockey and StatMuse.
Perusing points leaders by team, ten NHL squads are led by a player at or over 30 years of age (31%) – two ties included. And though this number would have been seven just a week ago, only Cale Makar and Rasmus Dahlin (tied with Casey Mittelstadt) lead their teams from the blue line.
But what I was truly looking for were balanced offenses. Four teams each have seven players at or above Ovechkin's 14 points, these being Carolina, Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia. I'll base the first of my DFS plays from this group.
Saturday's matchups
The juiciest game to wager the OVER 6.5 goals (-110) is the Buffalo Sabres @ Carolina Hurricanes. The 'Canes have that balanced attack – Sebastian Aho ($6600) leads with 20 points, but six forwards including Seth Jarvis ($5100), Teuvo Teravainen ($4900), Martin Necas ($4700), Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4400), and Michael Bunting ($3700) all have at least 15 points – all on 60+ point paces. Hot-and-cold Buffalo meanwhile, 3-5 in their last eight contests, have given up 25 goals in the five defeats, and just five scores in the three victories. So which team shows up? I see Carolina playing in Raleigh as a tough match, and I'll play several 'Canes, including Andrei Svechnikov ($4900), just nine points but in only 12 games. Nooo, stay away from the goalies on both sides here.
St. Louis Blues @ Arizona Coyotes. These teams met in a see-saw, ugly 6-5 game on U.S. Thanksgiving eve, where both starting netminders were pulled in the second period. Karel Vejmelka ($7800) hasn't seen the ice since, as Connor Ingram ($8000) has owned the net with consecutive wins against the likes of Vegas, Colorado, and Tampa. The 'Yotes are just 5-4-0 at Mullett Arena this season, but in a revenge match, they're a clear favorite at home (but only -125 on DraftKings). Clayton Keller ($6400) and Matias Maccelli ($3600) are good plays here, and I'll take Vejmelka to get the start. The Blues have had much better goalie play from Jordan Binnington ($7400), but Arizona is on a confident roll.
Surprisingly (?), the Colorado Avalanche is not among those balanced offenses, and their secondary scoring needs work, especially since Artturi Lehkonen went down with a neck injury. But Cale Makar ($8300) has been magic. In the month of November, he's scored 25 points in 14 games, missing the scoresheet just twice, and he has multiple points in nine of those contests. The Avs potted eight scores against the Ducks at their last meeting, and I believe they'll have at least five tonight. Makar is worth being the highest-cost defenseman.
Two last stats: Sidney Crosby has scored 124 points in 83 games against the Flyers in his career, and Evgeni Malkin 85 points in 70. Just two big reasons not to bet the Flyers tonight.
My lineup
Centers Aho and Charlie Coyle ($4900, at Toronto). Wingers Jarvis, Maccelli, and Svechnikov. Defensemen Makar and Shane Gostisbehere ($4900, at Montreal). Goalie Vejmelka, obviously my "reach" on this play (check GoaliePost for the latest starting goalie information). Utility skater Huberdeau ($3800, as Calgary hosts the Canucks). And yes, I'll put an equal wager on Buffalo-Carolina to combine for seven-plus goals.
Last week, yes I forgot to replace Andrei Kuzmenko, and my predicted shutout by Ilya Sorokin came without a victory, as the Flyers won the 0-0 match in a shootout. But I still had a modest win, with Brock Boeser and Filip Hronek pushing me through. But the key was that "under" wager on that double shutout, which is about as definitive an under as it gets.
Have a great weekend!