Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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55 games into Lukas Reichel's NHL career, we are already seeing articles asking if his time is running out. With only six points in 21 games this year, is he a bust? What if he is not the building block for Chicago that we hoped he would be?

What in God's name happened to Lukas Reichel? #Blackhawks

— Brandon Moderhack (@Hack2014) November 26, 2023

I hope the shake up in lines finally wakes Lukas Reichel up

— Tony Sartori (@tony_sartori) November 29, 2023

#blackhawks prospect Lukas Reichel has yet to showcase the offensive production that fans were hoping for. Some prospects work out and some don't, which direction is Reichel trending in? See article and hear thoughts on @TheRinkcast tonight at 8:00 (EST)https://t.co/UG8EQJjxJN

— Andy Campbell (@AndyCampbell16) November 15, 2023

Obviously Hawks fans are a bit restless to see Reichel break out, but that's just how fans are. We are always impatient to see our top prospects make the show and start impacting the game night in and night out. Equally obvious is the fact that we cannot make any sweeping generalizations about a 21-year-old prospect only 55 games into his career playing on a truly awful team with very little offensive support.

It has been a rough start to 2023-24, though. While he scored a promising 15 points in 23 games last year for Chicago (53-point pace), he opened this year pointless over his first nine. Scoring six in his last 12 is a positive sign that things are beginning to shift, but that still has him on a meager 23-point pace.

So what is going on with Lukas Reichel? And what can we expect from him moving forward?

First, let's take a closer look at the elephant in the room:

Chicago is Real Bad

While the Sharks are making every other team look like the Harlem Globetrotters—seriously, they have a -12.8 shot differential right now, which is over 7.9 worse than the 2nd-worst team—the 2023-24 Blackhawks are basically a carbon copy of last year's squad that bombed so badly they landed Connor Bedard. Here is how the two teams compare:

2023-24 Blackhawks:

2.57 goals for/game (3rd worst)

3.71 goals against/game (4th worst)

-24 goal differential (2nd worst)

10.3% power play efficiency (2nd worst)

-4.9 shot differential (2nd worst)

2022-23 Blackhawks:

2.49 goals for/game (worst)

3.67 goals against/game (5th worst)

-97 goal differential (3rd worst)

16.4% power play efficiency (5th worst)

-6.5 shot differential (3rd worst)

While Chicago is actually scoring slightly more than last year, most of their team metrics are basically the same so far as in 2022-23. The main thing that jumps out at a team level is how poorly their PP has performed so far, six percent lower than last year. For context, here are the worst conversion rates in the league over the past five years:

2022-23: NYI, 15.3%

2021-22: PHI, 12.6%

2020-21: ANA, 8.9%

2019-20: OTT, 14.2%

2018-19: NAS, 12.9%

So while it is not a sure thing, Chicago's PP seems likely to regress positively over the rest of the campaign. That is excellent news for Reichel owners because he has consistently featured on their top unit (41% of the time). In fact, we may already be seeing that regression. Here is a goal that Reichel scored in their last game against the Red Wings on a beautiful no-look feed from Bedard:

No-looker from Connor Bedard finds Lukas Reichel (@lukas__44) in front! ❌ 👀 pic.twitter.com/6HWOTq91wN

— NHL (@NHL) December 1, 2023

Deployment

There are a couple important points to note about Reichel's deployment so far: he has not seen significant time alongside Bedard at even strength and his PP usage has spiked recently, which corresponds with his recent increase in scoring.

While he has seen some time with Bedard (18.8%), Reichel's recent and most common linemates at even strength in 2023-24 have been Tyler Johnson and Taylor Raddysh. Those three are conceivably functioning as Chicago's third line at the moment, although who's to say on a roster like this. They posted a 56.3 Corsi For% last game against Detroit, so they seem to be holding their own.

In general, though, Reichel is not one of this team's play-drivers at the moment. His deployment chart shows that he has been relatively sheltered, which is great for developing players, and he is consistently receiving offensive zone starts (54.9%), which puts him in a better position to score.

Bedard and Kevin Korchinski are performing very, very well, and you can also see why losing Taylor Hall hurts so badly, as he was driving play against other team's best players.

Over Reichel's past eight games, he has consistently received north of 50% of the available PP time, even hitting +70% for several games. It is no coincidence that during that stretch, he has recorded four of his six points on the year (two on the PP). This usage suggests that the Chicago coaching staff are increasingly viewing him as an asset with the man advantage.

As we can see in that clip from the Red Wings game, Reichel is currently playing the bumper slot on the PP, where his excellent shot and small-area instincts can shine. Bedard is set up at the half-wall on the left side and loves to shoot, of course, so there should be plenty of rebounds for Reichel to slam home.

Interestingly, Reichel is sporting a 100% IPP and PPIPP right now, meaning that he has been involved in every single goal scored with him on the ice — at both even strength and on the PP. That has involved a number of secondary assists (75%), which suggests negative regression, but it is a great sign to see how involved he has been in the offense thus far.

Lukas Reichel➡️Taylor Raddysh➡️Tyler Johnson🚨

Johnson scores his 6th goal of the season early in the 2nd period to give the #Blackhawks a 3-2 lead!pic.twitter.com/vQZCWdyCFF

— Talkin' Hawkey (@TalkinHawkey) November 29, 2023

Potentially offsetting that secondary assist regression are his low PDO (913), which suggests he has been relatively unlucky to start the year, and Chicago's low PP conversion rate mentioned previously. If he sticks on the PP and their unit can start clicking at a higher rate, he is bound to see an uptick in scoring.

Shift to Center

Another important contextual point is that the Blackhawks have been trying Reichel down the middle in 2023-24, a notoriously difficult position with greater responsibilities than playing on the wing. All of the top face-off guys for Chicago have been getting absolutely caved in at the dot so far (below 50%), Reichel included. But his 47.6% win rate is actually not bad for someone adjusting to the position on the fly. He is just a hair behind Nick Foligno (48.1%), who has never been a big face-off-taker, and well ahead of Bedard (41%).

If we narrow the focus to recent games, Reichel is performing even better at the face-off circle than earlier in the year. Here are the rates from his last five games where he took at least one draw: 75, 60, 80, 70, 55. There has not been a lot of volume (22 wins over that stretch), but those are still significant and encouraging results for the young man. He also had a fantastic stretch in late October, where he went 60, 57, 66, 55, 61 (32 wins)—again, very impressive results for someone new to the position.

If Reichel can continue to find success down the middle, one would think that would increase his chances of becoming a regular linemate for Bedard, who although listed as a C himself might do better for the first couple years on the wing. It also doesn't hurt for Reichel owners in multi-cat formats that count face-off wins.

Outlook

While I feel like we haven't seen the dynamic flashes that we saw from Reichel last year as often yet in 2023-24, stay patient. We will have to wait until at least 2025-26 for him to reach his 200-game Breakout Threshold, where we can reasonably expect to see his upside. In our Fantasy Hockey Guide, Dobber has Reichel's upside at 87 points, which for context is three behind 2023 draftee Oliver Moore and two ahead of 2021 pick Frank Nazar.

Korchinski is just getting going from the back end and is on track to become a prolific number-one defenceman. Moore and Nazar are both bursting with talent and should arrive in the NHL close to when Reichel is fully hitting his stride. With the Blackhawks set to pick near the top of the 2024 draft again, there is reason for optimism — especially because they now have a true franchise talent in Bedard.

Now is an excellent buy-low moment on Reichel in fantasy. His price probably hasn't dropped significantly in most leagues because the majority of poolies understand that this process takes time. But for those looking only at the counting stats, there are a number of potential red flags that you can use to your advantage. People always get impatient with young players in fantasy.

As we have seen, however, Reichel is doing quite well down the middle for Chicago, is seeing more time with the top power-play unit in recent games, and has been slowly breaking out of his scoring slump. Temper expectations for this year and probably next, but most signs still point to Reichel becoming a star-level NHL player. There is no need to panic just because he is still developing while playing for an awful team. All of this was expected.

To give you one last boost of confidence, check out the kid's progression on Hockey Prospecting:

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.