Ramblings: Winnesota Wild; Penguins’ Power Play; Finding Value in San Jose (Dec 4)

Brennan Des

2023-12-04

John Hynes remains undefeated as head coach of the Wild, with Sunday's 4-1 win over Chicago marking his third-straight victory. The sample size is miniscule, but Minnesota hasn't allowed more than one goal in a game since Hynes took over. That shouldn't come as a huge surprise considering the team was playing solid defense even before Hynes was hired, they'd just been dragged down by poor goaltending. The coaching change may have provided somewhat of a jolt to Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury, who have performed well since Hynes arrived. Not only have the goaltenders been better, but the offense has enjoyed more success, racking up 13 goals over these three games. Now, it's unlikely that this extra offense was fueled by anything Hynes implemented. It’s still so early, the team probably hasn't had enough time to absorb and act on his teachings. Rather, what we're seeing is a team that's more motivated to perform because they have a new boss. It's a phenomenon that extends beyond hockey. Sometimes you get complacent and comfortable at work, but then new management comes in, so you have a little more pep in your step as you seek to make a good impression. This roster has proven to be capable of strong defense in the past, and Hynes has overseen defensively focused groups before, so I'm not concerned about Minnesota's ability to keep the put out of the net. However, it'll be interesting to see how the offense shakes out once this new-coach boost has worn off.

When Hynes was first hired, we discussed his propensity for spreading minutes throughout the lineup rather than exploiting top players. Again, three games is a small sample – although I've been reassured by my girlfriend that three is a good length – but it seems Hynes' habits from New Jersey and Nashville have followed him to Minnesota. After seeing roughly 21 minutes of action under previous coach Dean Evason, Kirill Kaprizov is averaging 18 minutes under Hynes. Similarly, Mats Zuccarello has gone from 18:32 to 16:47, while Boldy has dropped from 18 minutes to 14. Now, Boldy did see 16 and a half minutes during Sunday's game against Chicago, so it's possible his average settles at a higher number as we add more games to the sample. However, the main takeaway here is that Minnesota's top guys may not see the same volume of opportunity that they did in the past. Now, we've seen players produce at high levels while averaging 17-18 minutes of action before, so this isn't the end of the world from a fantasy perspective. However, if I'm in a league that tracks shot totals, and I drafted Kaprizov based on his reputation as a high-volume shooter, I'd be slightly concerned that less ice time will lead to fewer shooting opportunities going forward.

Marco Rossi scored two goals in Sunday's game, giving him seven points in his last eight games. The 22-year-old forward currently sits second in rookie scoring, playing well, but also benefitting from high-end linemates in Kaprizov and Zuccarello. Around the league, there aren't many rookies with linemates of similar/greater caliber. Logan Cooley in Arizona (Nick Schmaltz/Clayton Keller) and Matthew Knies in Toronto (Auston Matthews/William Nylander) are other obvious ones that come to mind, but I think those lines are more likely to be shaken up than Rossi's.

Given the team's star power, it's astounding that Pittsburgh hasn't scored a power-play goal in its last ten games. That's 26 failed opportunities with the man advantage. To shake things up, Kris Letang was promoted to the top power-play unit during Sunday's practice. His promotion comes at the expense of Bryan Rust, who's now on the second unit. After posting an underwhelming 47-point pace last year, Rust is off to a great start this season, tallying 19 points in 20 games. Remarkably, not even one of those points was tallied with the man advantage. Thanks to his strong play at even strength, this power-play demotion isn't the end of the world.

While this change isn't a huge detriment to Rust's fantasy value, it could provide a significant boost to Letang's, at least in the short term. In recent seasons, Letang would average a power-play point every four games or so, benefitting from seeing major minutes with the man advantage. With Erik Karlsson joining the team this year, Letang has been stuck on the second unit and doesn't have a single power-play point through 23 appearances. Letang's even-strength production has been solid, so if this new configuration works out and he's able to enjoy more power-play time and production going forward, his fantasy value could be on the rise.

Although he earned a 6-5 decision over San Jose on Sunday, Jonathan Quick didn't have a great showing, surrendering five goals on 28 shots. His numbers on the season look incredible, but it seems they're buoyed by a couple of great games early on. Over his last six starts, he holds an underwhelming 3.10 GAA and .898 save percentage. Quick remains a decent option to fill the wins category because he plays behind a strong team in New York, but don't get lulled into a false sense of safety because his overall SV% and GAA are good.  

When Kaapo Kakko went down with a lower-body injury last week, Jonny Brodzinski was called up from New York's AHL affiliate. At the time, Brodzinski led the American Hockey League in scoring with 25 points through 16 games. Although he started his stint with the Rangers in a depth role, he's worked his way up to a prime spot beside Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. After posting two points against Nashville on Saturday, Brodzinski tallied two more against San Jose on Sunday. He's seen just 11-12 minutes a night so far, so he's not getting the deployment to be universally valuable. However, if you're looking for some short-term offense in a deeper league, Brodzinski is in a good situation right now.  

Fantasy hockey championships are built by maximizing value. One of the easiest ways to do that is by looking in places no one else wants to look. For example, the bottom of the league. Most people would turn their nose up when presented with the Sharks' abysmal 6-17-2 record and league-worst 1.88 goals per game. However, a snobby attitude like that would cause you to miss a diamond in the rough like Mikael Granlund. With an assist on Sunday, Granlund now has seven points in his last five games. More importantly, he's seeing an incredible volume of opportunity, averaging nearly 21 minutes a night and enjoying a 73% share of San Jose's total power-play time. Although he's coming off a disappointing 43-point pace last year, he paced for 66 points the year before that – albeit with significantly better linemates in Nashville. If your league tracks faceoff wins, Granlund's an even stronger asset. He's eligible to slot in at right wing in Yahoo Leagues, meaning he can supplement the faceoff wins produced by your center-only slots. If he isn't the right fit for your fantasy roster, don't be afraid to consider other Sharks. Granlund's linemates, Anthony Duclair and Fabian Zetterlund, each have three goals in their last five games.

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Brad Marchand's hat trick carried the Bruins to a 3-1 victory over the Blue Jackets on Sunday. It's still early enough in the season that a couple of good games can alter the complexion of a player's season. Heading into this weekend, Marchand was pointless in his last five outings, on pace for an underwhelming (by his standards) 70-point season. Two games and four goals later, he's at roughly an 80-point pace.

On Sunday, in his 26th appearance of the campaign, Boone Jenner scored his 13th goal. Only 10 players in the league have more goals than Jenner. He's tied with big names like J.T. Miller, Alex DeBrincat and Filip Forsberg. Although he's scoring at a higher rate this year than he has before, this production hasn't come out of nowhere. Since the beginning of the 21-22 campaign, Jenner is top-50 in goals per game. His 0.41 goals per game during that span matches Cole Caufield and Dylan Larkin. Jenner is an underrated option in fantasy leagues that reward goal scoring but also provides a strong number of shots, faceoff wins and blocks.

Quinton Byfield scored two goals as LA beat Colorado 4-1 on Sunday. The 21-year-old forward is putting together an impressive breakout campaign, boasting 18 points through 21 appearances. He's a great complement to Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe on LA's top line, and recently earned a spot on the Kings' top power-play unit. Although it hasn't translated to much production with the man advantage just yet, that should change soon considering his high-end skillset. Although his 15 minutes of ice time per game seems low, I image that number will increase as he continues to prove and establish himself.

Superstar defenseman Cale Makar missed Sunday's clash with the Kings due to a lower-body injury. As I write this, it's still unclear whether he'll miss any more action because of this injury.  With Makar unavailable, Devon Toews quarterbacked Colorado's top power-play unit on Sunday. Toews should see an increase in fantasy value if Makar sits out any longer.

Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ANA Players
23.2 FRANK VATRANO TROY TERRY RYAN STROME
21.8 MASON MCTAVISH CUTTER GAUTHIER ROBBY FABBRI
17.0 BROCK MCGINN ALEX KILLORN LEO CARLSSON

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