Top 10 Players Exceeding Expectations
Tom Collins
2023-12-04
All too often, the focus in fantasy hockey is on the big-name players. But it’s often the lesser-known players that can give your team that extra little boost in your quest for a championship.
You don’t need to be a fantasy hockey genius to recognize top players having a good year; all you need to do is look at the leaderboards.
It’s always a good idea, especially in deeper keeper leagues, to have a glance further down the list. Numerous players are having much better-than-expected seasons that you may not recognize at first glance. Some of these players could be worth a pickup now, and hopefully, they get the opportunity to increase their production down the line – even if you need to wait until next season for it to fully pay off.
These players may be flying under the radar slightly in some of your leagues, but they could be worth watching to see if they start getting more ice time or power-play time thanks to their play.
Below are 10 players who are doing better than expected but may not be getting the deserved love this season.
10. Nick Bjugstad
Early in his career, many believed Bjugstad would be the next great multicat performer. Take a look at his sophomore season, where in 72 games he finished with 24 goals, 43 points, 207 shots, 148 hits, seven power-play goals and 12 power-play points, while averaging 16:35 per contest. Unfortunately, he struggled after that. His shot rate dropped, his points-per-game fell, he was hitting less and getting fewer power-play opportunities. Injuries didn’t help either, as it wasn’t uncommon for him to miss a minimum of 15 games per season. He seems to have regained some of his touch in Arizona this year, where he has 15 points in 23 games, a 52-point pace. He’s also up to 17:17 per night, the highest of his career, as he has settled into a second-line role with the Coyotes.
The 23-year-old Russian rookie hasn’t been noticed as much as some other rookies this season, even those on his own squad. He has five goals and 12 points in 20 games and has yet to go three games without a point. He also has 21 PIM, 24 shots and 18 hits, while averaging 12:44 per night and getting second power-play unit minutes. Compare that to the more hyped Adam Fantilli, who has five goals and 11 points in 26 games, along with eight PIM, 66 shots and 19 hits, all despite averaging 15:30 per night and getting more power-play time than Voronkov. Fantilli has also gone at least three games without a point on three occasions this season. I’m not saying Voronkov is the better long-term player, but aside from shots, he’s outperforming Fantilli this season.
8. Jake Walman
There’s been a lot of talk about Shayne Gostisbehere‘s season, and Moritz Seider is still great, but Walman has quietly put together a decent fantasy season with the Red Wings. He has 12 points in 21 games, a 47-point pace, and has only gone three games without a point once this season. Despite playing on the second power-play unit, he has four points with the man advantage. He also has 62 blocked shots, averaging 2.85 per contest. Those 62 blocked shots were tied for seventh heading into Sunday’s action, and most of the names ahead of him have played at least three more games. Compared to those ahead of him on the list, Walman leads in goals and points, is three behind the leader in shots, is one behind in plus/minus and is the only one getting any power-play time.
He’s not on pace for a career high, but his time in Boston has gone a lot more smoothly than many expected. After finishing below a 40-point pace in each of the two previous seasons, JVR now has 16 points in 23 games with the Bruins, on pace for 57 points. He’s still averaging two shots per game, and his plus-three is a dream compared to the minus-32 he had two seasons ago. He’s also got seven power-play points as he is being used on the Bruins’ top power-play unit. The biggest downside is his overall time on ice, as he averaged 14:08 minutes per contest, down from 15:21 a year ago and easily the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2009-10.
We all know San Jose is awful, but they are not as bad as their record indicates. They went on that epic 11-game losing streak to start the season, but compare Mackenzie’s numbers since the team’s first win to before the victory:
October 12 to November 4: 0-6-1 record, 4.78 GAA, 0.879 SV%, 37.5 quality start percentage
November 7 to December 3: 3-5-1 record, 3.01 GAA, 0.913 SV%, 70 quality start percentage
It’s not even close to comparable. Aside from Sunday night against the Rangers, Blackwood has been excellent since the Sharks’ first win. He also faces a lot of shots. His 532 saves are the highest in the league.
Considering how much he has going for him, it’s a shame that Joseph is only owned in 91% of Yahoo pools (as of Sunday night). His 16 points in 18 games put him on pace for 69. His plus-11 is easily tops on the team. He’s up to almost 17 minutes per night, almost three minutes per contest better than his previous career high. He’s playing a top-six role on a line with Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle. He’s only 14 points away from matching his career high. The Sens played twice on the weekend, and still have 13 more games in December. Thanks to a weird schedule to start the year, the Sens have only played 19 games (the next lowest is Los Angeles at 21 games, and five teams have already hit 25 games). This makes all the Sens sneaky good picks for the rest of the season, but Joseph is readily available in the vast majority of leagues.
For those in deep-keeper leagues, keep an eye on Carcone. He could be the next Carter Verhaeghe. After demolishing the AHL last year (in 65 games, he finished with 31 goals, 85 points, 127 PIM, 273 shots and 33 power-play points), Arizona decided to keep him on the pro roster this year. It seems to have been a wise choice, as he has 11 goals and 14 points in 22 games, a 52-point pace. This despite averaging only 11 minutes per night. He has six points in his last five games and is slowly getting more ice time as the season goes along. He played fewer than 10 minutes in four of his first five games. However, he hasn’t been below 10:26 in any of his last 10 games and is routinely hitting the 12-minute mark.
His rebound season from last year is going better than expected. While he still has a losing record, he’s cut his goals against average down by more than a goal per game to 3.04. He’s also upped his save percentage from .876 to .911. His 19 games started is tied for the league lead, and his 519 saves is third highest. Sure, wins are an important goalie stat in fantasy hockey, but most leagues also include these other categories where Merzlikins is shining. He’s made at least 35 saves in six of his last contests.
It took a while, but Lafreniere is finally starting to show life as a fantasy-relevant producer. Despite having only four points in his last nine games, he has 15 points in 23 games this year, a 53-point pace. He’s averaging more than two shots per contest for the first time in his career, and he’s at almost 17 minutes of action per game (a significant uptick from his previous career high of 15:13). He’s getting a consistent top-six role this year, playing mostly with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck at five-on-five. Although he remains stuck on the second power-play unit, he should easily demolish his previous career high of 39 points if this usage keeps up.
1. Evander Kane
With all the drama with Edmonton, it’s surprising that Kane’s name doesn’t come up more often. He’s been excellent this season and is bouncing back to the fantasy asset we all thought he would be with the Oilers. In 22 games, Kane has 11 goals and 20 points to go along with 46 PIM, 70 shots, 86 hits and four power-play points. To show how much he’s improved this year, it’s more suitable to compare his stats on a per-game basis.
2022-23: 0.39 goals, 0.68 points, 1.29 PIM, 3.56 shots, 0.05 power-play points, 3.02 hits
2023-24: 0.50 goals, 0.91 points, 2.09 PIM, 3.18 shots, 0.18 power-play points, 3.91 hits
Aside from shots, he’s producing much better in many fantasy-related categories. Maybe last year’s struggles could be chalked up to his injury when a skate blade cut his wrist which caused him to miss a significant chunk of games. When he returned to the lineup, he wasn’t as productive as before the injury. Now he’s had an offseason to recover, and he’s back to the Evander Kane from this first season in Edmonton.