Wild West: Deep Dive into Even-Strength Lines and Defensive Pairings in the West

Grant Campbell

2023-12-04

This week, using Frozen Tools Report Generator 3 and a report titled EV Line Production (which is available to Patreon Members), we are going to look at lines at regular strength and see what lines have played the most together, had the best and worst goal differential, and had the best and worst shots for percentage.

Here are some forward lines who should stick together based on great success in a small sample:

Edmonton – Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (39.2 minutes together)

This line has dominated when put together. They have six goals for and none against, with 33 shots for and just 16 against in 39.2 minutes of playing together. Extrapolating, if this line played for 60 minutes, they would outshoot the other team 51 to 25. That's a pretty wide-open style.

Winnipeg – Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor (27.8 minutes)

Vilardi has just returned from injury, so we can expect this line to continue with tempered success. They have dominated at ES, with 69.6% of the shot share. This line has outshot the opposition 35 to 15 over 60 minutes.

Vancouver – Pius Suter, Conor Garland and Dakota Joshua (73.7 minutes)

Once Suter returns from injury, this line should be put back together. They have dominated at ES with 69.6% of the shot share. If current metrics are prorated over 60 minutes, they would outshoot the opposition 32 to 14.

Forward Lines – Top Time Spent Together

  1. Los Angeles – Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe and Quinton Byfield – 231 minutes
  2. Anaheim – Frank Vatrano, Mason McTavish and Ryan Strome – 223
  3. Winnipeg – Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Alex Iafallo – 217.2
  4. Vegas – Jonathan Marchessault, Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev – 215.4
  5. Vancouver – J.T. Miller, Phillip Di Giuseppe and Brock Boeser – 206.9

Coaches tend to put forward lines into the blender much more often than defensive pairings. As a result, the above lines for Winnipeg, Vegas, Vancouver and Anaheim were not together in games over the weekend.

Kopitar, Kempe and Byfield were instrumental in the Kings' victory over Colorado on Sunday night.

Defensive Pairings – Top Time Spent Together

  1. Seattle – Adam Larsson and Vince Dunn – 405.1 minutes
  2. St. Louis – Nick Leddy and Colton Parayko – 381.4
  3. St. Louis – Torey Krug and Justin Faulk – 362.1
  4. Winnipeg – Dylan DeMelo and Josh Morrissey – 354.7
  5. Vancouver – Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek – 349.2

Outside of Hughes and Hronek, the pairings above have been together for most of last year as well as this season.

In 2022-2023, Larsson and Dunn were together a league-leading 1,415 minutes together (83.5%). Parayko and Leddy were together for 1,012 minutes (62.6%), Krug and Faulk for 622 (62.7%) and DeMelo and Morrissey for 735 minutes (46.6%).

Forward Lines – Most Goals For at ES (while on the ice)

  1. Anaheim – Vatrano, McTavish and Strome – 17 goals
  2. Dallas – Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene – 17
  3. Colorado – Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin and Nathan MacKinnon – 16
  4. Los Angeles – Kopitar, Kempe and Byfield – 16
  5. Dallas – Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski – 14
  6. Winnipeg – Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton – 14

I was a little surprised to see Vatrano, McTavish and Strome leading the West in goals for ES, but going into Sunday games, this line had played the most together. I don't think they can sustain this position as Dallas has two lines clicking and the Kings have their line of Kopitar, Kempe and Byfield hitting their stride.

The line of Hintz, Robertson and Pavelski led the NHL in ES goals with 58 in 2022-2023.

Defensive Pairings – Most Goals For at ES

  1. Vancouver – Hughes and Hronek – 24
  2. Winnipeg – DeMelo and Morrissey – 21
  3. Colorado – Devon Toews and Cale Makar – 20
  4. Arizona – J.J. Moser and Sean Durzi – 19
  5. Minnesota – Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin – 18

Last season, Vince Dunn and Adam Larsson from the Kraken led the NHL with 88 goals. No one else had more than 66.

This list is the who’s-who of top defenders in the West when you look at Hughes, Makar, Toews, Morrissey and Hronek. When players like DeMelo, Moser, Durzi, Faber and Brodin are on the list it makes you take notice.

Forward Lines – Most Goals Against at ES

  1. Anaheim – Vatrano, McTavish and Strome – 16
  2. Dallas – Hintz, Robertson and Pavelski – 12
  3. Vancouver – Elias Pettersson, Ilya Mikheyev and Andrei Kuzmenko – 11
  4. Minnesota – Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov – 11
  5. Seattle – Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle and Matty Beniers – 10

It's ok for the lines of Anaheim and Dallas to be here as they are also on the list for most goals for.

It's disappointing to see the lines from Vancouver, Minnesota and Seattle here as those lines have Elias Pettersson, Kirill Kaprizov and Matty Beniers on them.

It's especially disappointing in Seattle as the line of McCann, Eberle and Beniers outscored the opposition 41 to 21 at ES in 2022-2023 and have had just five goals for in 2023-2024.

Defensive Pairings – Most Goals Against at ES

  1. St. Louis – Parayko and Leddy – 18
  2. St. Louis – Krug and Faulk – 17
  3. Edmonton – Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm – 17
  4. Anaheim – Cam Fowler and Jackson LaCombe – 17
  5. Seattle – Larsson and Dunn – 16

The Kraken pairing of Larsson and Dunn gave up the most ES goals in 2022-2023 with 67 to lead the NHL, but they also had 88 GF to offset that. This year they are even at 16/16.

The two pairings from St. Louis are no strangers to being on the ice for goals against. In 2022-2023, Parayko and Leddy gave up 50 and Krug and Faulk gave up 37.

Fowler and LaCombe have only had two goals scored while giving up 17. This pairing might not be together long if ever again.

Forward Lines – Best Goal Differential at ES

  1. Dallas – Seguin, Marchment and Duchene – 12
  2. Colorado – Rantanen, Nichushkin and MacKinnon – 11
  3. Los Angeles – Kopitar, Kempe and Byfield – 11
  4. Winnipeg – Niederreiter, Lowry and Appleton – 8
  5. Nashville – Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist and Ryan O'Reilly – 8

Not on this list from 2022-2023 is the other Dallas line of Hintz, Robertson and Pavelski who led the NHL at plus 34.

Kopitar, Kempe and Byfield only played together for 479 minutes in 2022-2023 but they were plus 21. This has become a dominant line in the NHL.

Defensive Pairings – Best Goal Differential at ES

  1. Vancouver – Hughes and Hronek – 10
  2. Colorado – Toews and Makar – 10
  3. Arizona – Moser and Durzi – 10
  4. Vegas – Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb – 9
  5. Winnipeg – DeMelo and Morrissey – 8

Jonas Seigenthaler and Dougie Hamilton led the NHL in 2022-2023 at plus 28. Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez led the West at plus-22 while Makar and Toews were plus-20.

J.J. Moser and Sean Durzi are an unexpected pairing on this list.

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Forward Lines – Worst Goal Differential at ES

  1. Seattle – McCann, Eberle and Beniers – minus five
  2. St. Louis – Oskar Sundqvist, Jake Neighbours and Sammy Blais – minus five
  3. Chicago – Lukas Reichel, Philipp Kurashev and Connor Bedard – minus five
  4. Minnesota – Hartman, Zuccarello and Kaprizov – minus four
  5. Arizona – Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller and Barrett Hayton – minus three
  6. St. Louis – Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou – minus three
  7. Vegas – Paul Cotter, Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson – minus three
  8. Minnesota – Vinni Lettieri, Brandon Duhaime and Connor Dewar – minus three
  9. San Jose – Anthony Duclair, Fabian Zetterlund and Tomas Hertle – minus three
  10. Minnesota – Pat Maroon, Brandon Duhaime and Connor Dewar – minus three

Because coaches put forward lines into the blender, the chances of a coach sticking with a line combination that just doesn't work is much less likely, which is reflected in the conservative negative numbers above.

McCann, Eberle and Beniers were one of the best forward lines in 2022-2023, when they were a plus-20, but they have struggled this year. Some lines that I wouldn't expect to be here are the top line in Minnesota with Kaprizov, the line with Buchnevich, Thomas and Kyrou in St. Louis and the line in Vegas.

I would expect lines that play a lot in Chicago, Arizona and San Jose to struggle a little.

Connor Dewar and Brandon Duhaime are on two lines on this list, which is never a good sign.

Defensive Pairings – Worst Goal Differential at ES

  1. Anaheim – Fowler and LaCombe – minus 15
  2. Chicago – Connor Murphy and Kevin Korchinski – minus nine
  3. Edmonton – Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais – minus seven
  4. Chicago – Seth Jones and Kevin Korchinski – minus seven
  5. Seattle – Justin Schultz and Brian Dumoulin – minus five
  6. San Jose – Kyle Burroughs and Mario Ferraro – minus five
  7. Nashville – Tyson Barrie and Roman Josi – minus five
  8. San Jose – Calen Addison and Mario Ferraro – minus five

Last season, the worst goal differential for a pairing was minus 13 by Kevin Shattenkirk and Simon Benoit in Anaheim. We are only 20 games into this season and Fowler and LaCombe have already gone below that.

Tyson Barrie and Roman Josi, just look like a bad pairing in Nashville and probably won't be used together that often if possible. San Jose and Chicago are expected to see some struggles keeping the puck out of the net, so this list is more an indication of the team than their players.

Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais having issues in Edmonton is more a case of the Oilers needing to upgrade their 5th, 6th and 7th defenders on their roster.

Forward Lines – Top Shots For Percentage (over 100 min)

  1. Colorado – Miles Wood, Logan O'Connor and Andrew Cogliano – 59.8%
  2. Winnipeg – Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov and Nikolaj Ehlers – 58.5
  3. Seattle – McCann, Eberle and Beniers – 58.0
  4. Colorado – Rantanen, Nichushkin and MacKinnon – 56.7
  5. Los Angeles – Trevor Moore, Arthur Kaliyev and Phillip Danault – 55.6

This stat is a representation of the number of shots on goal for compared to shots on goal against while at even strength when the line is on the ice. Putting the minimum of 100 minutes together keeps the percentage from skewing as this is a difficult percentage to exceed 60 over a longer period of time.

Andrew Cogliano was replaced by Ross Colton on the Colorado line with Miles Wood and Logan O'Connor.

The Jets have mixed their lines up in recent games and Perfetti, Namestnikov and Ehlers were not together on Saturday.

Eberle, McCann and Beniers were together in the Kraken's 2-0 loss to Ottawa on Sunday and outshot the Senators six to three with no goals scored either way.

Rantanen, Nichushkin and MacKinnon were together in Sunday's 4-1 loss to Los Angeles. The line scored once and was scored against at ES.

With the Kings, Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault have been skating with Kevin Fiala, while Arthur Kaliyev has been moved down.

Defensive Pairings – Top Shots For Percentage (over 100 min)

  1. Los Angeles – Vladislav Gavrikov and Matt Roy – 59.6
  2. Colorado – Josh Manson and Jack Johnson – 59.6
  3. Edmonton – Bouchard and Ekholm – 59.0
  4. Minnesota – Jared Spurgeon and Jake Middleton – 58.1
  5. Calgary – Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin – 56.5

Keeping this category as shots on goal rather than chances for, reflects well for some of these defenders who are adept at blocking shots.

Skaters like Gavrikov, Roy, Manson, Johnson, Ekholm, Spurgeon, Middleton and Tanev are all pretty good in that regard.

Forward Lines – Worst Shots for Percentage (over 100 min)

  1. Chicago – Nick Foligno, Philipp Kurashev and Connor Bedard – 40.5%
  2. Minnesota – Hartman, Zuccarello and Kaprizov – 45.1
  3. Dallas – Wyatt Johnston, Evgenii Dadonov and Jamie Benn – 46.6
  4. Vancouver – J.T. Miller, Phillip Di Giuseppe and Brock Boeser – 48.0
  5. Dallas – Hintz, Robertson and Pavelski – 48.1

Keeping the limit to 100 minutes excludes some of the defensive lines who are below 30-40 percent in offensive zone starts and are behind the eight-ball in terms of scoring a better Corsi or shot ratio because of that.

This highlights some of the lines in the West, who are either struggling or playing above their weight. In the case of the two lines from Dallas, one would think that those numbers should improve for both.

In Minnesota, the Wild need that line to drive play and be difference-makers, but they haven't done that at even strength and it's a little worrisome for owners of Kaprizov and Zuccarello.

Di Giuseppe was just a healthy scratch on Saturday night and the line was not producing much at ES.

Fortunately for Bedard, he might not see that line combination again much in Chicago after the team traded for Anthony Beauvillier.

Defensive Pairings – Worst Shots for Percentage (over 100 min)

  1. St. Louis – Marco Scandella and Tyler Tucker – 36.5%
  2. Vancouver – Tyler Myers and Ian Cole – 40.0
  3. Nashville – Jeremy Lauzon and Alexandre Carrier – 41.0
  4. Arizona – Troy Stecher and Juuso Valimaki – 41.4
  5. Chicago – Alex Vlasic and Seth Jones – 41.5

Because defensive pairings stick together a little longer, there will be some pairings here who have zone starts less than 40 percent in the offensive end. Rather than see these types of percentages and assume these pairings are bad, know that it is very hard to show well with limited offensive zone starts.

Having said that, these aren't ideal pairings long-term as the team is giving up more shots than they are taking when these players are on the ice.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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