Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Greg)

I’m in a 16 Team Keep 8, H2H league with a farm that allows up to 7 players on it, who can be farmed until they hit 3 seasons of 26+ games (31+ for goalies). Categories are G, A, SOG, PPP, GWG, SHG, +/-, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO and rosters are 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4 F, 4D, 1G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA.

After going all in and losing the finals by a hair two seasons ago, I went into rebuild mode. Last year was a write-off, and I lucked into drafting Connor Bedard, who will be farm keepable for the next two offseasons. I came into this year planning for it to be another rebuild year, to try and lock up the best keeper core I could before going for it again. But lo and behold I'm sitting in third as I write this, yet I worry about my goalies, who are Joonas Korpisalo and Karel Vejmelka.

The team with the arguably strongest keeper list in the league has sent me the following offer: My Jason Robertson for their Mitch Marner, Joseph Woll and Mavrik Bourque. Woll would be farmable for two more seasons.

Currently my keeper list is projected to be:

Robertson, Quinton Byfield, Kevin Fiala, Travis Konecny, Josh Norris, Elias Lindholm, Brock Boeser and either a goalie or one of Zach Werenski or Bowen Byram. My farm players are: Connor Bedard, Bobby Brink, Jake Sanderson, Frank Nazar, Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Prosvetov, Magnus Hellberg.

Is trading Robertson’s potential as a high volume shooter, scorer and overall point-getter worth it for the reliability of Marner and a potential starter in Toronto?

Here's a fun fact – Robertson has played not even half as many games in his career as Marner, yet he's less than two years younger than the Toronto star. That matters since Robertson, although just above his breakout threshold, might not be in line for the kind of improvement we'd normally expect from a player with his comparative lack of experience. If you're still contemplating a rebuild, I don't see Robertson as an upgrade based on the small age difference. Plus, while Robertson might have a higher ceiling than Marner, especially if Dallas ever adopts a system that heaps ice time on its stars, who's to say that will happen? After all, look at Sebastian Aho, who has never really fulfilled lofty expectations due in large part of Carolina throttling ice times for its stars. With Marner, however, that is not an issue. But on the other hand, Marner can't really get much better, yet also clearly has the higher floor.

Here's what I'd suggest. Trade for Marner. At worst I see it as a lateral move. But then don't be afraid to try and flip Marner in the offseason or later this year, when teams looking to win might be inclined to part with assets to help you rebuild, since I do indeed think you need to continue down the rebuild path, as your keepers are good but not great and you have Bedard. Another player I'd not be afraid to move is Fiala, as he is what he is so there's no risk of him exploding, but he'd net you a nice return. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Sam)

What do you make of Jake Oettinger? Like last season he started great; however, looking at his final numbers from 2022-23 they weren't so superb as to seemingly justify him being taken, on average, as the third goalie overall in Yahoo leagues. Yes, he plays for a very good team, boosting his value. But do you get a sense that he can become a great goalie or will he be more like a solid but unspectacular goalie who gets 30+ wins a season with a GAA around 2.50 and a SV% of .915?

Last season Otter topped the 30-win mark for the second time by age 24. In doing so, he became just the seventh goalie to meet those criteria in the past 30 seasons. Who were the others? Studs like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Martin Brodeur, and Henrik Lundqvist, two very good but not elite goalies in Marc-Andre Fleury and Felix Potvin, a goalie who had a long career but didn't deliver on early promise in Cam Ward, and one who went downhill fast in Tim Chevaldae. Still, that's nearly 50% elite goalies, and five out of seven who were very good or better.

Can we tell where the chips might fall for Otter? Chevaldae and Ward had a SV% less than 0.905 in both their 30+ win seasons, making it easier – in hindsight – to be able to guess that they might not be great long term. Beyond that, Fleury and Potvin had at least one season of their two 30+ early win campaigns with a SV% under .910. All the rest, including Otter, had a SV% of .910+ in both seasons.

Does that make it an open and shut case? Not quite; but further analysis only paints an even better picture. Looking at quality start percentage, Otter's for his two 30+ win seasons are akin to those of Vas and King Henrik, but also Fleury. Yet Otter was tops among them all in lowest percentage of Really Bad Starts, which is a huge positive.

I don't see a reason to belabor the analysis, as on paper Otter is in line to be as good a goalie as three of the best of the past 30 seasons. And he plays for a team that looks to have a bright future as well. I think he should be looked at as a top five, if not top three, netminder in fantasy, especially in keepers, where a team would be poised to reap his benefits for years to come. Good question!

Question #3 (from Chet)

In a points only one-year league, would you trade your Moritz Seider for Miro Heiskanen? Right now they seem pretty even but I feel like Heiskanen is underachieving while Seider is kind of where he should be, making me inclined to do the deal.

Here's what it boils down to for me. There's no Shayne Gostisbehere looming for Heiskanen like there is for Seider. Yes, Ghost has been periodically deemphasized; however, he seems like he has nine fantasy lives, making it a cloudier picture for Seider than Heiskanen. This is especially the case since Seider is so reliant upon PP scoring, with well more than half his points thus far coming on the man advantage. With Ghost being most useful on the PP, that hits Seider at the heart of his production and probably has cost him at least a couple of points thus far and will likely continue to hurt Seider.

Another factor pointing away from Seider is that his offensive zone starting percentage is 37.9%, which is really, really low, so much so it's a wonder he's doing as well as he is. If it was nearly 15 percentage points higher like Heinskanen's, my guess is Seider would have up to a handful more points, with or without Ghost in the picture.

As for Heiskanen, he didn't exactly start 2022-23 on fire either. His SOG rate is down, which is a source of concern. Still, his IPP would mark a career low if it stays where it is now, and chances are it won't. But Hieskanen's IPP on the PP has remained healthy, and thus he was hurt by the team's struggles early in that area. Heiskanen also not only starts far more shifts in the offensive zone, but he sees more ice time in general – quite a bit more. With Dallas at least Detroit's equal in terms of its ability to produce as a team, that extra ice time will pay dividends over the long haul. Also, Heiskanen's SH% is under 50% of his usual rate, whereas Seider's is high for him.

When it comes to points only one-year leagues, I'm going with Heiskanen. Seider should do fine, but fall short of Heiskanen probably by 5-10 points when all is said and done for 2023-24. Good question!

Question #4 (from DobberHockey Forums)

What do you make of Nick Suzuki? I feel like he should be better. Is it just a matter of time, or will he ultimately not live up to early expectations?

For what it's worth, Suzuki's scoring pace has risen every season he's been in the NHL, although the gains have been pretty low the last two campaigns. What hasn't risen, however, is his SOG rate, and until/unless it does it might be difficult for him to excel, especially since he's going to need to rely on getting goals more so if, as has occurred thus far this season, he's been apart from Cole Caufield more so than next to him.

Where there are signs of encouragement though is on the PP, as Suzuki had never previously posted one PPPt per even every four games. That was less so a sign of him doing poorly as it was of the team's struggles in the area. But for 2023-24, both him and the team are faring better. Also, Suzuki is on pace this season for IPPs both overall and on the PP to exceed the all-important 70% threshold that I link with a player having the potential to be elite. The issue is although he's getting a major share of points fewer goals are being scored due to him mainly centering Alex Newhook and Josh Anderson rather than Caufield. No offense to those two, but they're not the offensive catalysts that Caufield is. While Suzuki clearly has enough talent to factor into scoring, he's not is the same echelon as top-tier centers who can succeed regardless of who their linemates are.

Still, Suzuki is only 24 and the Habs are just now starting to look better than the woeful team they were in recent seasons. Plus, this is happening without Kirby Dach, who was starting to look like he'd figured things out. What I also like about Suzuki is he's doing what he's doing while seeing barely 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone and just a third of his assists being secondary.

What picture does this paint? Probably one where Suzuki can be a point per game player left to his own devices, but perhaps a 90+ point player if he gets re-tethered to Caufield and/or the Habs improve as a team on the whole. But the chances of him becoming a major star are slim unless he shoots more, which doesn't look like it's in the cards.

Question #5 (from Tyler)

I own William Nylander in a non-cap, keep 8 league. Every fiber of my being is telling me to sell high; but his trends over the past three seasons suggest he's markedly better and he is still at a point in his career where improvement makes sense. But I worry gains this large are unrealistic. I have an offer to get, ironically, Mitch Marner for him, or Elias Pettersson? Would you take either deal?

Indeed, Nylander has made strides over the past few seasons, both in terms of scoring rate and SOG. He has also morphed into a top PP producer and as a result has seen his share of his team's PP minutes rise as well. Yet we can't ignore this occurring in the season after which he's set to be a UFA. And there are far more instances of players overachieving on the cusp of unrestricted free agency as there are of those who were giving us a preview of their new normal.

The big question is whether Toronto can afford him, and the answer more and more seems like no, as his stats are putting him in "the guy" territory, such that a team with cap space and top tier talent needs might make him a huge offer. Could he find himself alongside Connor Bedard next season? Who's to say that can't happen. Or if not the Blackhawks, then why not a half-dozen teams looking to improve and with the money to wow Nylander? Still, it's not clear Nylander can be a player around whom a team's offense is centered, as for his entire career he's not had to deal with that level of expectation nor the pressure that comes with it.

Some have speculated that the Leafs could try to keep Nylander for a shorter term. The issue with that is it would require Nylander foregoing UFA years. Thus, if anything it would mean he'd only take an even more expensive deal, making it all the less likely Toronto could keep him. Long story short, I don't see him in a Leafs uniform after 2023-24.

What to make of Nylander's performance, and how it bodes for the future? I think what's occurred is slowly over the past three seasons the power balance on his line has shifted farther and farther away from the still skilled but definitely aging John Tavares, and gone more and more to Nylander. The result is Nylander upping his rates in all key areas, not to mention his IPPs, which are definitely high by comparison this season, but perhaps only so high as to mean he instead lands in the 100-point range versus where he is now, which, as I write this, has him on pace for 109 points.

Would I consider Marner for him? Marner is a full year younger and has a higher floor, and thus is the safer choice for a league with eight keepers. I'd probably take that deal, but see if you could seize upon just how hot Nylander has been and get a draft pick sweetener. I'd also likely take the Pettersson deal, as EP40 looks like he is just starting to scratch the surface and once he puts all the pieces of the puzzle together he could be the next Nikita Kucherov, or at least has a better chance of that than Nylander, who likely would have had to have been better sooner for that to be realistic. So yes, I'd sell high on Nylander for either of those deals, probably the Pettersson one over the Marner one. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Brett)

Do you see Vitek Vanecek's struggles continuing, or can turn it around? He's been hurting my team lately with his poor performances and I feel like I either need to sit him for a while or drop him. My other two goalies are Thatcher Demko and Cam Talbot. I can rely on both of them but then VV comes in and blows up my GAA and SV% for the week with one or two games.

I was among those who felt that Vanecek's struggles in the second half of last season were as a result of hitting a wall. But looking more closely now, he had previously played 35-45 games in a season three separate times in the past, and only played ten fewer NHL games in 2021-22 than 2022-23. Plus, he had better stats in Q4 than in Q3. If we dig a bit more, we see he had cumulatively fewer than 50% quality starts from the second quarter onward. He also had ten really bad starts in 52 games, which is a pretty dismal rate all things considered.

Something else to chew on is he had the fifth worst even strength SV% of any goalie who appeared in over 50 games last season and the worst SV% of any 50+ game goalie while their team was shorthanded. Those were warning signs of what was to come, or at least it sure seems so now.

Whereas many thought Akira Schmid would be the go to guy if Vanecek faltered, Schmid has not fared much better. Do I see a universe where someone a new goalie is brought in this season? Never say never, but the crop of UFA to be goalies doesn't exactly scream rental upgrades, and in fact the only one I could envision perhaps somehow landing in New Jersey would be Marc-Andre Fleury. As such, I think the team will hitch its wagon to Vanecek and Schmid for better or worse.

Given this, I think you have no choice but to hold and hope when it comes to Vanecek. New Jersey is just too good a team and Vanecek has shown he can play well, such that he isn't droppable when all you're concerned about is this season. Or at least I can't see how you'd be able to drop him in all but the shallowest of leagues for a player that makes more sense, on paper, for you to own. In other words, if you own three goalies and two of them are Vanecek and Talbot, chances are the waiver wire isn't bursting at the seams with upgrades. Cross your fingers for Vanecek – it's the right approach for you to take under the circumstances. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Richard)

I'm in a H2H points only league with 24 teams. The quirk is the players are doubled (2 McDavids, 2 Bedards, etc.) so it's more like 12 teams, as each player can be owned twice. Goalies get 2 points for a win and 3 extra for a shutouts, as well as a point for any goal or assist they tally. Weekly we dress 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D and 1G. There's no cap and once you own a player you can keep him indefinitely. Last year I determined my team would never win as presently built; so I decided to rebuild, trading for the 1st, 6th and 21st picks overall for 2023-24. Here are my players as I write this:

LW – Jason Robertson, Jeff Skinner, Zach Benson, Lukas Reichel

C – Joel Eriksson Ek, Connor Bedard, Logan Cooley, Jordan Kyrou

RW – Pavel Buchnevich, Reilly Smith, Luke Evangelista, Dylan Guenther

D – Vince Dunn, Travis Sanheim, Luke Hughes, Neal Pionk, Kevin Korchinski, Nick Perbix, Simon Edvinsson, Brandt Clarke

G – Ilya Samsonov, Pyotr Kochetkov, Akira Schmid, Connor Ingram

I want to continue the rebuild, and to that end I see only the following 11 players as my "core" around which to build, such that I'd look to trade everyone else for picks or other assets. Do you agree with my list? If not, what would you change?

LW – Robertson, Reichel

C – Bedard, Cooley

RW – Evangelista, Guenther

D – Dunn, Hughes, Korchinski, Clarke

G – Schmid

Let's start with goalie, where for certain Kochetkov has to be on the list. After all, the way things are shaping up he should be the back-up for 2024-25 and unquestioned starter for 2025-26. I have him ranked far above Schmid, who hasn't exactly impressed this season. If you want to hold Schmid though, it's not entirely unreasonable to do so. Just know that I wouldn't.

For defense, I find no fault with the four you listed, but I think if they make the cut so does Edvinsson. After all, like Hughes, Korchinski and Clarke, he's ranked in the top ten for fantasy prospect defensemen according to DobberHockey. Will all of them likely pan out? Highly unlikely; however, for a rebuilding team it makes sense to keep the four right now. As for Dunn, I realize he's essentially legitimizing his breakout 2022-23 season right before our eyes; however, how much better can he get, especially given his low SOG volume? And let's not forget that he's 27 years old, meaning he might be starting to see his stats curtail around the time this team is gearing up to contend. It's called selling high for a reason, and I think the time to sell on Dunn is this season.

For your RWs, I'm not too keen on Evangelista. He's not a high-volume shooter and his IPPs leave a lot to be desired. Yes, he's still quite young and could blossom, so I'd be okay with you keeping him; but I think you should give it further consideration. In his place, I might hold Buchnevich. Yes, I realize he's even older than Dunn; however, Buchnevich – literally – just keeps getting better and better with each passing season and likely can continue producing at this pace of better for a good number of years. I like him as a hold.

At center, you'll of course get no argument from me on Connor Bedard or Logan Cooley, but here too I'd keep the Blue, as Kyrou's metrics, including IPP and SOG rate, are very, very good. He's also not even turning 26 until after the end of the regular season. Plus, if you keep both Kyrou and Buchnevich, you might be able to package them if they thrive together, giving a team a chance to trade for a stack, as the Blues usually do end up slotting them together for the most part. That possibility should not be disregarded.

Lastly there's LW, and here too I think you've omitted someone you should keep in Benson. Yes, it's a forward logjam in Buffalo; however, once the team improves some of them will be moved to get better in other areas. Either that, or the team will just have a stacked top nine. He too ranks very high on the DobberHockey list of top prospects. A rebuilding team does not toss someone like that back into the pool to be snagged by another team, especially since you can keep these guys forever.

What should your rebuild exit strategy be? I think you should aim to start improving in roughly three years and contending in five. That would allow time to continue to build and learn more about the fates of the young players you already have. It's never fun to know you won't be competing for the near term but it's more than worth it if it leads to you being a perennial powerhouse. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Boyd)

I'm in a H2H league with rosters of 2C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4D, 2G, 7 bench spots, IR+. Each team gets four waiver picks per week. Categories are G=3, A=2, PPP=1, Hits=0.45, Blocks=0.3, Win=5, GA=-2, Save=0.25, SO=3.

I'm hoping you can help me with a team overhaul? I'm currently 4-3, 3rd most points for but every week is tight matchups, and I easily could be 2-5.

As I write this, my current team consists of Steven Stamkos, Robert Thomas, Tim Stutzle, Auston Matthews, Travis Konecny, Johnny Gaudreau, Kyle Connor, Brady Tkachuk, Matt Duchene, Bryan Rust, Andrei Svechnikov, Travis Sanheim, Victor Hedman, Kris Letang, Erik Gustafsson, Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Lyon, UPL, Pyotr Kochetkov, Thatcher Demko. For your reference, the top guys available on the waiver wire are Charlie Coyle, Mathew Barzal, Jaden Schwartz, Brenden Dillon, Brayden Schenn, Adam Lowry, Tyler Myers.

Seeing this, two things jump out. First, with names like that on the waiver wire this likely is not a very deep league, meaning you'd need to be pretty stacked to win. Sure enough, your team is at worst decent and I'd even go so far as to say above average. You also have a decent mix of ages, although you do skew perhaps a bit older than most teams I'd imagine.

Do I think you're misguided to be thinking about a rebuild? Yes and no. I think you have the makings of a very good team for the here and now and the near term. But I do worry where things would stand in three years or so if you stood pat. So what do you do?

I think a full rebuild is unwarranted and, as such, you set a plan to divest yourself of assets each season, with the ones to do so for this campaign being Sanheim (you don't get this good out of the blue), Letang (I think he's at risk of breaking down any moment), and Stamkos (he's started to level off). See what you can get for them. If need be, don't be afraid to package guys like Rust (I don't trust him after what I saw last season) or Duchene (being propped up by Wyatt Johnston) if need be. And get rid of Gustafsson ASAP before the bottom drops out on him with the return of Adam Fox.

Hear me out on this – I believe Svechnikov and Tkachuk could be used to get great assets in trades. That's because people see hits as a category and immediately assign huge value to both. But without PIM and SOG, they're several notches below their perceived value. Put them out there to see what you can fetch in return. You might be blown away by what you're offered.

Next season I'd probably be poised to trade Hedman and, assuming he bounces back, Gaudreau, plus Duchene or Rust if you didn't already move them. At that point, you might be already back in the thick of things. And to that end, I'd grab Barzal, since he's too talented to be on the waiver wire even though his skill is largely wasted in Long Island. Someday that team will focus more on offense and when they do the big winner will be Barzal, who'll feel as though he just got paroled. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.