Ramblings: Thompson Returns; Hughes Cubed; Stephenson; Vrana; Fabbri & More (Dec 6)

Alexander MacLean

2023-12-06

The NHL currently has the Board of Governor meetings ongoing, and this is where often the agenda looks dry, but sometimes there are some juicy nuggets dropped. Thus far there hasn't been anything exceptional like the out-of-nowhere announcement a few years ago that the NHL was crowdsourcing interest in ticket sales in Las Vegas, but in the meantime, we did get an updated projection on what next year's cap may look like. Right now it sounds as though $87.7 million has been penciled in, though as we know it's always subject to change based on the rest of the season. In other words, if the Cup final is Arizona versus Columbus, we likely see the cap drop. If it's Toronto versus Los Angeles, then the cap likely goes up. Plan accordingly – unlike NHL GMs.

In the meantime, and with no fantasy relevance, we also got an announcement on the NHL draft format. If you ever wanted to go to an NHL draft, this is your last chance to see all the teams on the floor squished together at adjacent tables.

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Tage Thompson is back! Without Tage, Buffalo just hasn't looked like the offensive force that we know they can be. Hopefully both the Sabres and Tage can get back to their peaks now, as the production for Thompson was also disappointing to start the year. The first half of yesterday's game was forgettable for the Sabres, but they did pick it up in the second half where Thompson added a power play assist. Some correction in the underlying percentages should mean a finish closer to the point-per-game mark than the 60-point-pace he's on now.

Luckily it also sounds like Alex Tuch's injury (likely a strained hamstring) is going to be the best-case-scenario, and he's only going to need a week or two off.

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In one of my leagues I own both Jakub Vrana and Chandler Stephenson. Both are slumping right now, though I remain confident that both have many productive years remaining. I wanted to dive into how realistic that feeling is for both of the upcoming UFAs.

For this year, there's a lot more to like with Stephenson, as he is on the better team, has the better track record, lower cap hit, and isn't a healthy scratch like Vrana. However, I feel that Vrana's ultimate upside may be higher, if he could just land in the right situation – that's why I have hope for next year is he can pick the spot that will hopefully suit him best.

Stephenson's most common linemate is Mark Stone (both this season and years previous), and during the recent slump, he has been playing away from Stone. Once the two are back together again, I expect the offensive production to continue. Vegas has seemed to like to shake up the lines, and after losing to Arizona, Edmonton, St. Louis, and Calgary over the last two weeks, I think we may see some further shake ups.

Overall, his team's shooting percentage with him on the ice is extremely low, and coupled with a few other percentages, should mean that he's in line for a rebound up closer to his usual 60-point-pace the rest of the way.

For Vrana, he's going to have to get back into the lineup before he can start to correct his poor start, and at this point that might take an injury or two. He has always had decent IPPs but with less ice time, and had some of the best shot production rates in the league back in his time with the Capitals/Red Wings.

However, this year the ice time has been down even further, and he has been snake-bitten to a shooting percentage at a quarter of what he was averaging the previous three seasons. If the pucks were going in at a normal rate he instead has eight goals and 12 points in 17 games, despite playing only 12:30 per game. Playing with Kevin Hayes, Alexey Toropchenko, and Sammy Blais probably hasn't helped either.

Still excited to see what he can do next year on a cheaper contract and anywhere but under Craig Berube. He's going to be one of my favourite late sleepers in drafts next season.

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Robby Fabbri missed quite a few games early-on, but since mid-November he has really gotten his legs back under him. He now has nine points in his last seven games (six of them goals), and this is all while only playing 13 minutes a night, with limited power play exposure. He was always a scorer back in junior, but has battled so many injuries since then that he just hasn't had a chance to show what a healthy Fabbri can do for a long stretch in the NHL. Well, it looks as though we're finally seeing it.

He may not be a heavy shooter, and without two shots per game or more, his shooting percentage may cause his production to fall back to earth a bit, but lining up with David Perron who has a knack for getting Fabbri the puck in the right places just seems to be the magic ingredient for Fabbri at the moment. Ride the hot streak while you can, and keep your fingers crossed he stays healthy.

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After Saturday's shutout win, Anton Forsberg got his second-straight start. This was only the second time this season he has seen consecutive games, and the first came around the strange travel and scheduling with the team's trip to Sweden, so I'm not sure it even really counts. He picked up a solid win last night with 33 saves on 35 shots.

Meanwhile, with two points last night Claude Giroux just keeps chugging along. The soon-to-be 36–year-old is basically on a point-per-game pace once again, and is really loving life in Ottawa. All of his underlying numbers check out, and if anything, he should have a bit more production on the power play than there has been to date.

Drake Batherson and Vladimir Tarasenko each added three points as well, while their centre Tim Stutzle was held to just one in Ottawa's offensive outburst. Brady Tkachuk, Erik Brannstrom, and Artem Zub also each pitched in two points. The team doesn't look like it's missing Thomas Chabot, who suffered a leg injury over the weekend, and was having an MRI yesterday night. Hopefully there is some more info out in time for tomorrow's Injury Ward article.  

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In case you were thinking about streaming Dustin Wolf while Jacob Markstrom is out:

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Sebastian Aho is quietly on pace for a career season, and he's doing so despite a shooting percentage of 11% compared to the consistent 16% he has put up in each of the past three seasons. Add the three-goal difference that a normal shooting percentage would make, and he's nearly a 100-point player this year. I know we have been waiting forever for the Aho explosion that just never seemed to materialize, and I'm not saying that he does hit the 100-point mark, but if he is ever going to hit 90 points, it will be this year.

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The World Juniors are back, which means the Dobber Hockey forum pool, morning hockey to watch through the holidays, and a super fun condensed product that always manages to produce at least classic game a year.

This is also the time to see which of the best of these players are available in your prospect pools so you can ride the wave of over-hyped value that always comes out of the World Juniors.

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Anytime Kirill Marchenko is an option in the Tim's Picks, I end up taking him for group two or three. He's a top-six option in Columbus now, with over 2.5 shots per game, and a solid career shooting percentage. At the moment, the Blue Jackets are really missing Patrik Laine's ability to shoot the puck, and they have a lot of puck-retrievers and passers – especially with Johnny Gaudreau showing some more flashes lately, and eight points in his last eight games. 

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My horrible ex that I just can't quit in Mike Reilly picked up two special teams points for the Islanders last night – don't let me get sucked back in there. Mat Barzal returned to the lineup after dealing with an illness, but it was the centres Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau who all got in on the scoring instead.

Still, four goals from the Isles wasn't enough to take down the Sharks who are… an offensive juggernaut apparently. Tomas Hertl recorded a hat-trick on seven shots to get back to a normal scoring pace in the high-60s. William Eklund recorded three points as well with three shots and over 21 minutes of ice time in the overtime win, and he's looking a lot more comfortable of late as well.

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The Hughes brothers played in the first NHL game with all three of them on the ice, and we'll just say it wasn't a goalie battle. I don't need to tell you how great they all are already. It's not going to be easy to acquire any of them, but it will be worthwhile. Even Luke as a rookie is still making me second-guess trading him for Miro Heiskanen straight up. Not many NHLers can do that.

My favourite play from the game had to be this one though:

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 08 - 19:04 BUF vs CAR
Apr 08 - 19:04 CBJ vs OTT
Apr 08 - 19:04 N.J vs BOS
Apr 08 - 19:04 MTL vs DET
Apr 08 - 19:04 FLA vs TOR
Apr 08 - 19:04 PIT vs CHI
Apr 08 - 20:04 DAL vs VAN
Apr 08 - 20:04 NSH vs NYI
Apr 08 - 21:04 UTA vs SEA
Apr 08 - 21:04 COL vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS WSH
ROBERT THOMAS STL
LANE HUTSON MTL
MARCO KASPER DET
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
DARCY KUEMPER L.A
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY T.B
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JOSEPH WOLL TOR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency L.A Players
23.7 ALEX LAFERRIERE KEVIN FIALA QUINTON BYFIELD
20.8 TREVOR MOORE WARREN FOEGELE PHILLIP DANAULT
12.1 ANDREI KUZMENKO ANZE KOPITAR ADRIAN KEMPE

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