Ramblings: Ovi’s Goal Drought; Comeback Sharks; Goalie Talk; Streaming Options for the Week (Dec 11)

Brennan Des

2023-12-11

One of my favourites from Dobber's Frozen Tools is the Schedule Planner, which shows you which teams are playing during any given timeframe. One thing this reveals is who's playing on 'light nights', when there aren't many games scheduled. With fewer games on tap, you should have more open slots on your fantasy roster. So, a free agent that plays multiple 'light nights' in a given week will have more chances to contribute to your team.

Another useful bit of information the Schedule Planner shows is how many goals a team's opposition is scoring and conceding. If you need offense from the waiver wire, it makes sense to target players facing teams that are giving up lots of goals. If you need a goalie for the week, you'd prefer if they're up against teams that aren't scoring a lot. Based on this info, here are a few players that provide some value for the upcoming fantasy week (Monday December 11th – Sunday December 17th). I tend to prioritize a light-night schedule when discussing free agents because they're meant to fill holes in your lineup, and those holes are more likely to exist on light nights.

Jonathan Drouin (Yahoo: 3% Rostered; Fantrax: 31% Rostered)

The Colorado Avalanche are one of 10 teams that play four games this week. Only half of those teams – Avalanche included – have three games on light nights. What makes Colorado even more appealing is that their opponents have given up 3.21 goals per game. Based on goals against, no team is facing a weaker combination of defenses this week.

With eight points in 25 games, Drouin hasn't exactly been lighting up fantasy leagues. However, he's currently skating on Colorado's star-studded top power-play, with exposure to Nathan MacKinnon at even strength. Now, it's worth noting that Drouin hasn't done a whole lot with this role so far, so it's entirely possible he gets demoted within the week. However, given Colorado's schedule and his current deployment, there's potential for some offense.

Anders Lee (Yahoo: 25% Rostered; Fantrax: 28% Rostered)

Like Colorado, the Islanders have a favourable four-game/three-light-night schedule this week. Lee's overall numbers don't look great, but he has a respectable eight points in his last 11 outings. More importantly, he's riding shotgun on New York's top line with Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, who have been on fire recently. If you need a few hits and shots, with potential for some offense, Lee could be your guy this week.

Casey Mittelstadt (Yahoo: 25% Rostered; Fantrax: 64% Rostered)

Based on quality of opposition, Buffalo has a tough schedule this week, set to play Colorado, Vegas and Arizona (twice). However, based on maximizing games played for your fantasy roster, their schedule is actually quite favourable.The Sabres play four times, with three of those games scheduled on light nights. If he's available in your league, Casey Mittelstadt could be a great add this week. Not only is he skating on Buffalo's top power-play unit, but he's also skating on the top line between Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner. Coach Don Granato has been leaning on Mittelstadt heavily in recent games. Over his last six outings, the 25-year-old center has seen 23 minutes of action a night.

Alex Kerfoot (Yahoo: 12% Rostered; Fantrax: 17% Rostered)

Arizona has a solid schedule this week. They play four times, with two light-night contests. More importantly, they're up against a couple of weak defenses this week, playing San Jose once and Buffalo twice. Kerfoot's in a good situation right now, skating on Arizona's top power-play unit. That may not have been big news in the past, but Arizona has been quietly effective with the man advantage this year, ranking seventh in the league with a 24.4% success rate. Kerfoot started seeing more power-play opportunity on November 18th. Since then, he has 11 points in 10 games, averaging 19 and a half minutes of action a night. Good situation, good schedule, and on the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues. This might be the week I develop a Kerfoot fetish.

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Sam Reinhart tallied four assists in Florida's 5-2 victory over Columbus on Sunday, giving him 37 points through 27 appearances. We often see players take their game to new levels when in the final year of a contract – motivated to maximize their market value before signing a new deal. Such a description seems appropriate for Reinhart, who's an unrestricted free agent after this year. What he's done so far has been very impressive, but I don't expect him to keep up this pace. Although he's been an efficient shooter in the past, his current 26% success rate is unlikely to last all season.

With an assist on Sunday, Sam Bennett now has five points in his last seven appearances. This is after posting just one point in his first eight contests. It's good to see him bounce back as he'd been hindered by injuries during that early stretch. Bennett has a solid situation in Florida. He skates beside Matthew Tkachuk on the team's second line and has been seeing top power-play minutes recently. He's a multicategory beast, racking up a strong number of hits, shots and faceoff wins. Injuries might have slowed him down to start the year, but I expect he'll provide more value going forward.

Zach Werenski registered an assist against the Panthers, giving him 21 points in 28 games this year – a 62-point pace. Over the past month, Werenski has 15 points in 17 games. During that timeframe, only two defensemen have more points than Werenski. One of them is Cale Makar, the other is Evan Bouchard.

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Speaking of Bouchard, he extended his point streak to 11 games with a goal on Sunday. The 24-year-old defenseman is putting together an incredible breakout campaign, already with 28 points through 25 games. He's benefitted from seeing premier power-play opportunity this season, a trend which began late last year. Considering he's part of Edmonton's star-studded top unit, it makes sense that half of Bouchard's points have come with the man advantage.

Connor McDavid posted a goal and assist against the Devils. While most of his goals belong in an art gallery, Sunday's tally looked like something I could've painted. Sunday marked McDavid's sixth multi-point effort in his last seven outings. A month ago, concern was mounting as he had a pedestrian 10 points in 11 games. To quiet the critics, McDavid went ahead and racked up 26 points in his next 12 games. One month and 12 games. That's all it took for him to rocket from a 74-point pace to a 128-point pace.

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Although he tallied an assist as Washington beat Chicago 4-2, Alex Ovechkin failed to score a goal on Sunday, marking his tenth-straight game without a goal. According to Tom Gulitti of NHL.com, this matches the longest goal-drought of Ovi's career. He also went 10 games without a goal in 2017.

Through 25 appearances this season, Ovi has lit the lamp just five times. That's 0.20 goals per game. To provide some perspective, his worst season from a goal-scoring perspective was back in 2016-2017, when he scored 0.40 goals per game. That's his worst. In recent years, he's hovered around a 0.60 goal per game rate. Given that he's 38 years old, there's an argument that age is catching up to him, but I'm not ready to accept that explanation just yet. I'd say he's been plagued by some bad luck thus far as only 5.6% of his shots have resulted in goals. In recent years, he'd scored on roughly 15% of his shots. To that you might argue that his shot isn't as good as it used to be, or that the shots he's taking now aren't of the same quality they've been in the past. My response would be that Ovi's individual expected goals (ixG) sits at 10 (via NaturalStatTrick). So, when shot quality is considered, advanced stats suggest Ovi has done enough to have twice as many goals as he has right now. That reinforces the idea that he's been hindered by bad luck.

Despite his underwhelming output, Ovechkin somehow leads the Capitals in scoring with 16 points in 25 games. His 0.64 points per game represents the lowest rate of any team's leading scorer (Nazem Kadri is close behind at 0.67 for Calgary). This highlights a potential problem. With Ovechkin struggling, it doesn't seem like there's anyone on the Caps' roster who can pull him out of this slump. If he's going to get out of this rut, he needs to pull himself out of it. This is where your belief in the individual comes into play. If you think Father Time has caught up to Ovi, then there's no need to make an offer for him in your fantasy league. However, if you, like me, believe his goal-scoring ability couldn't have fallen so drastically so quickly, then perhaps its worth trying to buy low. Although I think he bounces back and scores more for the rest of the season, I'm tempering my expectations for the magnitude of that bounceback.

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With two points on Sunday, Philipp Kurashev improved his point total to 16 through 21 appearances – a 62-point pace. There was lots of chatter about who'd benefit from playing with Connor Bedard this year. Taylor Hall was at the top of that list, but he's out for the season following ACL surgery. Instead, Kurashev has been the primary beneficiary, having spent 83% of his total minutes beside Bedard (via NaturalStatTrick). Considering Kurashev has been the most productive of Bedard's linemates, I imagine that pair will persist as the season progresses. Kurashev enjoyed a secondary assist on Sunday thanks to this beautiful play by Bedard.

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Juuse Saros was excellent in Sunday's 2-1 win over the Canadiens, stopping 37 of the 38 shots he faced. He started the season with a 4-9 record, posting a 3.23 GAA and .892 SV% in the process. Since then, he's 8-1, with a 2.26 GAA and .929 SV%. Fantasy managers that were patient with Saros have been rewarded recently.

Colton Sissons scored two goals and provided Nashville with all the offense they needed to beat the Habs. He has nine points in his last 13 games, providing sneaky offense to supplement a fair number of hits, shots and faceoff wins.

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Pheonix Copley gave up four goals on 27 shots as the Kings fell 4-1 to the Rangers on Sunday. Considering how well LA has played defensively this year, it's surprising that Copley holds a 3.16 GAA and .870 SV% through eight games. He's only played well in two of those eight appearances. In stark contrast, LA's top netminder Cam Talbot holds a 1.91 GAA and .931 SV% through 18 games. I guess the takeaway here is that although the Kings are a strong team, Copley's individual struggles may still sink you on any given night. If you need a spot start in your fantasy league, there might be better options than Copley.  

Jonathan Quick had a strong showing against the team he spent 16 seasons with, stopping 25 of the 26 shots LA threw his way. Quick boasts an impressive 8-0-1 record this year, with a 2.20 GAA and .922 SV%. I think his overall numbers paint a bit of a misleading picture as he's been quite hit or miss this season. In five of his starts, he's allowed three or more goals, posting a save percentage of .900 or lower. In his other four starts, he's allowed one goal or fewer, posting a save percentage of .947 or higher.

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Connor Hellebuyck posted his eighth-straight quality start on Sunday as the Jets defeated the Ducks 4-2. It's been a tale of two seasons for Helleybuyck. He struggled during the first month (Oct. 11 – Nov. 11) of the campaign, posting a 2.98 GAA and .892 SV% over 11 games. However, he's been incredible in month two, registering a 1.78 GAA and .941 SV% over nine appearances.

Kyle Connor left Sunday's game against the Ducks after taking a knee-on-knee hit from Ryan Strome. It's unfortunate for Connor, who currently sits fourth in league scoring with 17 goals in 26 games. There were no updates on his status after the game.

Filip Gustavsson posted a 24-save shutout as Minnesota defeated Seattle by a score of 3-0 on Sunday. Gustavsson has now started five games since John Hynes took over as head coach on November 28th. Remarkably, he hasn't allowed more than two goals in any of those games. Despite this recent run, Gustavsson's overall numbers leave a lot to be desired. As a result, it might be worth checking to see if a buy low window still exists in your fantasy league.  

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Last tilt of the night. It's 4-2 Vegas with less than five minutes left. Surely that's all she wrote. Surely, that's all I have to write tonight, right? Top team in the league with a two-goal lead against the cellar dwellers. Surely, everyone (most importantly me) can call it a night now, right? Goal. Calen Addison. 4-3 Vegas. Haha, that's okay, I said to myself, nestling into bed. Less than a minute left, Mike Hoffman. 4-4. Dear goodness, they've done it again. The comeback kids have done it again. After overcoming a three-goal deficit to beat the Islanders on Tuesday, and a four-goal deficit to defeat Detroit on Thursday, the Sharks clawed their way back to force overtime against Vegas on Sunday. Three-straight games of incredible comebacks. Although San Jose ultimately fell in a shootout, they've proven with this recent run that they shouldn't be taken lightly. I don't know if opponents have been underestimating them due to their awful start, or if they've developed camaraderie as underdogs, but boy is it making for a great story. San Jose has now scored four or more goals in each of their last five games.

If you're upset San Jose couldn't complete the comeback on Sunday, take it up with Jonathan Marchessault. He picked up the shootout winner to go along with two goals in regulation. After struggling to produce for most of November, Marchessault has six points in five December outings.

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I don't know if I'm more surprised that I wrote all of that, or that you read all of it. Either way, I'm grateful that you waded through another week of my word vomit. If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency FLA Players
14.7 CARTER VERHAEGHE SAM REINHART ALEKSANDER BARKOV
14.6 MATTHEW TKACHUK EVAN RODRIGUES SAM BENNETT
12.7 TOMAS NOSEK A.J. GREER RASMUS ASPLUND

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