Ramblings: Updates on Tuch, Larkin, Drysdale, and Svechnikov; Eye-Opening Play from Raymond, Morrissey, Vatrano, Marchenko, and More

Michael Clifford

2023-12-12

Isak Rosen was sent back to the AHL by Buffalo ahead of Monday night's game against Arizona with Brett Murray coming back the other way. Rosen was held pointless in seven games with the Sabres though he played in the bottom-6 virtually the entire time and skated under nine minutes per night.

It is a reminder that while Buffalo has a lot of good, young talent, the team still needs time for this talent to develop further. New Jersey drafted Jesper Bratt in 2016, Nico Hischier in 2017, Jack Hughes in 2019, and Alex Holtz in 2020. The team's record from 2019-2022 was 74-105-28, or a .425 points percentage. That works out to 70 points every 82 games for three years with three of these players on the roster. In other words, even with a lot of top, young talent in the organization, it took a few years for it all to come together. That seems likely for Buffalo, too.

I am as excited about the fantasy upside for players like Jiri Kulich, Zach Benson, Matthew Savoie, and Noah Ostlund as the next fantasy owner, but it just may take some time for it all to come together. Perhaps a good buy-low opportunity in dynasty for some of the younger players?

In other Sabres news, Alex Tuch skated with the team in a normal sweater at their morning skate. He was held out of Monday night’s contest but it seems a return for Wednesday is probable.

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Both JT Compher and Dylan Larkin were sent to the injured reserve ahead of their game on Monday night. Larkin took that brutal hit to the head/neck area over the weekend and his history of neck injuries is well-documented. Hopefully it's nothing too serious but we will keep everyone updated when we know more.

Detroit said that Larkin could theoretically be back in a week or so, but:

Compher could be back as early as Thursday.

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St. Louis was expected to put Jakub Vrana on waivers but something changed at the last minute. He had often been a healthy scratch for the team this year and has just two goals in 19 games. His defensive play certainly is lacking but despite the two goals, his offensive play still looks very good.

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Anaheim got some good news regarding Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, and Mason McTavish:

Getting all three players back in short order would be a big boost to this lineup offensively.

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An important update on Andrei Svechnikov:

That it's not related to his knee surgery is a silver lining here, but Svech needing an MRI for an upper-body issue is never a great sign. We will pass along updates as they're provided but it's more bad news for the team and the winger, health-wise.

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John Tavares reached 1000 points for his career with a pair of assists on Monday night, including the primary helper on Morgan Rielly's game-tying goal with seven seconds left in the third period against the New York Islanders. An overtime goal from Bo Horvat got the Islanders their two points.

That makes 1000 points in 1054 career regular season games for Tavares who should reach 500 goals a couple years from now. It sure seems as if the Hall of Fame is a near-lock now.

Nelson and Kyle Palmieri each had a goal and an assist in the win. Noah Dobson had three helpers, one shot, one block, and one hit in a very good multi-cat effort.

Auston Matthews also scored for Toronto, totaling 11 shots and a block. William Nylander had two assists and two shots.

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Buffalo's depth did almost all the damage in their 5-2 win over Arizona. Kyle Okposo and Eric Robinson each had a goal and two assists with Okposo having two total shots, one block, and three hits.

Peyton Krebs and JJ Peterka also scored. Peterka now has 12 goals in 29 games this season, matching his total across 77 games last season. His breakout year continues unabated.

Rasmus Dahlin had a goal and an assist with four shots, a block, and a pair of hits in a great across-the-board outing. Dahlin now has seven goals in 28 games and is easily on pace to set a new career-high after he posted 15 in 78 games a year ago.

Michael Carcone scored again, giving him 14 goals in 26 games. He is also shooting 35.9%, which is simply hilarious for being two weeks into the season.

Devon Levi stopped 21 of 23 in the win. He is 2-0-1 with a .942 save percentage in three games since returning from the AHL.

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Roope Hintz was back in the lineup for Dallas as they took a 6-3 win over Detroit. Miro Heiskanen had two goals and an assist on three shots, adding a pair of blocks to his stat line. Esa Lindell and Jason Robertson both had a goal and an assist while Joe Pavelski and Matt Duchene also tallied. Pavelski is now up to 12 goals and 14 assists in 27 games this season.

Shayne Gostisbehere had two assists, three shots, and a block in the loss. He has 21 points in 26 games this season as he's been a tremendous fantasy performer in Detroit.

Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 30 shots in the win.

In news off the ice, David Perron was suspended for six games for his cross-check in Detroit's game against Ottawa on the weekend.

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Colorado took a 6-5 win over Calgary in Colorado on Monday night thanks to three third-period goals. Mikko Rantanen (1+2), Nathan MacKinnon (1+1), Ross Colton (1+1), Cale Makar (1+1), and Valeri Nichushkin all had multi-point nights. Makar finished the game with five shots, a block, and a hit. He now has 36 points in 26 games with 69 shots and 43 blocks.

Nazem Kadri and Blake Coleman each had a goal and an assist in the loss. Kadri wound up with five shots, two PIMs, and a hit in defeat. Kadri is now on a four-game point streak and is now up to 20 points in 28 games on the season.

MacKenzie Weegar had an assist with six blocks and four hits in a great multi-cat performance.

Dan Vladar was in net for all six goals, facing 37 shots in total. He now has an .871 save percentage on the season.

Chris Tanev was injured early in the game on a hit from Colton and did not return.

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In any fantasy hockey endeavour, it is important to update what you think you know about certain players. Every fantasy owner has opinions on key players, and it'll lead us to overvaluing or undervaluing these options. I thought it would be worth going through some players that I wasn't high on personally but whose play through the first third of the season has opened my eyes a bit.

Lucas Raymond

Raymond was actually the genesis behind this idea because I wrote about him at a different publication and the improvements he made. Without cribbing from that article, Raymond's playmaking and transition numbers, as tracked by AllThreeZones, have skyrocketed this year so there is a good reason why his play-driving numbers, and subsequent production, have all improved.

Whenever I watch Detroit and I see a winger make a play that makes me rewind the game, it's almost always Raymond. This is no slight to Alex DeBrincat – a guy I was very high on this season – but Raymond just constantly stands out in the offensive zone. There should be concerns about Raymond's production given his usage will be an ongoing concern with Patrick Kane on the roster, but dynasty owners should certainly be heartened by the improvements Raymond has made.

Josh Morrissey

It is one thing to see a player make improvements and have a good season. For Morrissey – by my eye anyway – his skating improved drastically over the last few seasons and that helped push him to a career-best 76 points (his first with at least 40 points, which is an incredible jump). To feel secure about the improvements, it's necessary to see the same thing again, and Morrissey has 24 points in 26 games to start the season, pacing for 76 points. The repetition we want to see has been there.

Morrissey has seen his assist rate decline a bit as he's less involved in the goals this season (registering a point on 51% of Winnipeg's goals scored with him on the ice) compared to last year (58%), but his pace still has him pushing the 60-assist mark. Evolving Hockey has him easily as the team's top expected goal driver from the back-end as his stellar offensive work continues.

The 2023 fantasy draft season saw me largely stay away from Morrissey and I may come to regret that. He looks great on most nights and though he turns 29 years old in the spring, it still leaves a few more good seasons ahead as long as the team stays competitive.  

Juraj Slafkovský

With the emergence of Alexis Lafrenière and especially Quinton Byfield, my hope is that we, as a society, will stop giving up on top picks after a couple seasons. WhetherSlafkovský becomes a high-end winger remains to be seen, but just focusing on his point totals misses the progress he's made.

Again at Evolving Hockey, they had Slaf with an expected goals-for driving rate in the 9th percentile as a rookie, which was truly awful. That has completely reversed itself so far this season as that rate has jumped to the 75th percentile, or a borderline first-line rate. It hasn't led to a lot of actual goals for the Habs, but the team is also bottom-5 in the league by even strength scoring. He has largely been kept off the top line until recently and with their injuries, there isn't a lot to play with outside that top line.

It must be said that I am a Habs fan and maybe there are rose-coloured glasses here. However, there are a handful of times every game where Slaf wins a board battle to regain/retain possession, makes a great cross-ice pass, or disrupts the opponent's breakout and those are things he did not do often last season. All the pieces are starting to come together, and he may be on the Lafrenière/Byfield trajectory of being a very productive top-6 winger in a couple years.

Sean Durzi

Full disclosure: I was higher on Juuso Välimäki than I was on Durzi until late in the draft season. That is clearly burning me as has five points in 20 games and Durzi has 13 in 25 outings. Not only has Durzi helped the team offensively, but he's been good in the defensive zone as well. Maybe not a big deal for fantasy, but it's something that'll keep his role, and ice time, secure in the eyes of the coaches.

It doesn't happen every shift, but it often seems as if whenever something good happens on offense for the Coyotes, it's Durzi that is involved somehow. From that tracking data I referenced earlier, Durzi is way above average in assisting on teammate scoring chances, and is even well clear of Morrissey and we went through how well he's playing this season. If he can do this all year, the Coyotes may have gotten a long-term piece to their blue line as Durzi just turned 25 years old in October.

Kirill Marchenko

It isn't that I was low on Marchenko, in particular, but rather I was just low on the Blue Jackets (it appears I was right on that front, at least). The thing is this: in the handful of Columbus games I've watched, the guys that constantly stand out are him and Adam Fantilli. It isn't (or wasn't) Johnny Gaudreau or Patrik Laine, and it wasn't anyone on the blue line. He has been one of their top producers by both points and shots per minute at 5-on-5, and just watching him on the ice, he always forces something. Not in a bad way, either, as he's constantly trying to make plays that aren't readily apparent, and that's very valuable on a roster that is struggling.

Columbus has an awful power play and Marchenko is skating 16-17 minutes a night. Those things are not conducive to high-end fantasy success. However, he has looked great basically since stepping into the league and can score goals in a variety of ways. His long-term future looks bright even if his short-term one does not.

Frank Vatrano

Vatrano is a guy I've really enjoyed watching for years. He was often productive in the fantasy game given his ability to rack up shots and hits on a strong per-minute basis. This year has been different, though.

Vatrano is not known for his playmaking; he has never had 20 assists in any single season and his scoring chance assist rates are usually poor. However, this year, that chance assist rate is actually above the league average and about six times higher than his mark from 2022-23. That jives with what I've seen in my viewings of the Ducks, as he and Mason McTavish have looked phenomenal together. That is why he's on pace for 27 assists, a mark that would be nearly 45% higher than his prior career-best.

Whether this lasts, we'll see, but it's certainly a good sign for him in the fantasy game. He legitimately has the potential to be a 35-goal/25-assist player this year with over three shots and 1.5 hits per game. That would be a tremendous multi-cat season.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jun 18 - 20:06 FLA vs EDM

Starting Goalies

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MARTIN NECAS CAR
PATRIK LAINE CBJ
EVANDER KANE EDM
JOHNNY GAUDREAU CBJ
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM

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LINUS ULLMARK BOS
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
DAMIAN CLARA ANA

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22.7 ANZE KOPITAR ADRIAN KEMPE QUINTON BYFIELD
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10.5 ALEX LAFERRIERE KEVIN FIALA PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS

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