Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

As we enter the second full month of the 2023-24 season, much of the eyebrow-raising early stats – both good and bad – have begun to renormalize. Or have they? That's what we're here to find out, at least about the three players (Noah Dobson, Auston Matthews and Tim Stutzle) being covered today. Think you know which one of the three has been too hot, which too cold, and who's "just right?" Lock in your guesses and keep reading to see if you scored a hat trick. All stats are through games played on December 8th.

Noah Dobson (25 GP, 5 G, 18 A, 66 SOG, 25:01 TOI, 11 PPPts, 2:49 PP, 71.2% PP%)

Grabbed 12th overall by New York in 2018, Dobson went directly from juniors in 2018-19 to the NHL in 2019-20. His first two seasons with the Isles were nothing special; however, he only played a combined 80 games, so it may have just been a case of growing pains, as for 2021-22 he equaled his cumulative 80 game total, posting 51 points, or more than double his total from his firs two seasons. But he didn't keep pace with expectations, as the next season he stayed in neutral, again scoring at a 52-point full season pace. For the 2023-24 campaign thus far, however, Dobson is red hot, sitting just below a point per game. Is this his new normal, or merely an unsustainable stretch of scorching play? For Dobson owners reading this, signs point to the latter but don't fear the bottom dropping out.

Looking at Dobson's numbers, things do stick out. His shooting percentage would be easily a career high, plus he's scoring more without shooting more. Yes, in some ways the lack of higher SOG rate makes his higher SH% less glaringly concerning; however, there still likely has been some unsustainable benefit in this area.

It also took Dobson only until game 21 on the season to equal his PPPt total amassed in 78 games in 2023-24. This despite Dobson taking the ice for slightly less PPTOI per contest. In looking at PP efficiency, it is true that the Isles were third worst in the NHL in 2023-24, yet this season thus far stand seventh. But in 2022-23, when Dobson had 22 PPPts in 80 games playing only slightly fewer PP minutes per game than he is thus far this season, the team stood a decent 12th in PP conversion percentage. For Dobson to be on pace for nearly a PPPt per every other game, it doesn't take rocket science to realize something is amiss.

Still, Dobson's IPP on the PP is 73.3%, which isn't that far above his norm, as last season it was a very healthy 66.7% while in 2021-22 it was a slightly higher 75.9%. The issue is how can we expect their PP to keep converting at the rate it has been this season when so little is different as compared to the players who logged man advantage minutes in 2022-23? Yes, Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal are both healthy and Horvat has had his adjustment period. But even if we resign ourselves to Dobson's PP IPP not being likely to drop, the team itself is bound to convert on a lower percent of power plays over the course of the rest of 2023-24, as you don't go from third worst to a top ten unit without more widespread differences being at play.

While I believe those factors alone justify my view that Dobson is overachieving, I don't want to imply that he'll be unable to improve upon his 52-point pace that he posted in each of the past two seasons. For one, he's skating nearly five more minutes per game than he did in 2022-23 and four more than 2021-22. Though that has led to a 50.3% OZ%, let's keep in mind that his OZ%, was a nearly identical 50.7% in the 2021- 22 campaign, with a crest up to 63.5% last season. Even if his OZ% isn't superb, skating that much more per night will get him more points in the normal course. In fact, he had 31 ESP in 78 games last season and 29 in 80 in 2021-22. Together that's 60 in 160 contests, or 1 every 2.25 games. With him now playing between 20 and 25% more non-PP minutes each game, if we were to up that rate by 22.5%, that would've been about seven or eight more points each season. Even if he sees his PPPts normalize, he should have gains in ESP to offset some of that loss.

It's worth also noting that Dobson is below the 400-game breakout threshold that normally applies to defensemen, meaning it's fair to say we've yet to see his best. Part of what is at play here is likely indeed improvement in the normal course.

Moreover, despite being a rearguard, Dobson has only a 35.3% secondary assist percentage, which would put him on track for that percentage to drop for a third straight season. On the one hand a percentage that low for a rearguard has only way to go and that's up; however, his demonstrated low rate in this area suggests that we shouldn't expect him to necessarily improve automatically. Still, to give you an idea how low his rate is, the highest scoring rate of any defenseman who currently has a lower OZ% rate than his is not even a point per every other game. Lastly, there's his IPP overall, which is right in line with where it's been the past two seasons.

Make no mistake – Dobson is unsustainably overachieving. But those waiting for the bottom to drop out from under him in terms of scoring might be waiting a while, or in fact waiting for something that won't occur. Yes, Dobson's SH% is high and he won't be able to sustain his PPPts pace; however, he's playing "the guy" type minutes now, such that he will get more points in the normal course even if his OZ% is lower. He's not one to get a lot of secondary assists for whatever reason, but at least we know things won't get worse. In all, I do think Dobson's scoring rate will drop, such that his 2023-24 thus far has been TOO HOT; but I'd expect him to be able to finish at 60- to 65-point-pace, making his rating a not so high 8.0. I don't see him as a sell high, since chances are poolies will not give you true value for what he's done to date, meaning you might as well hold and reap what will still be some pretty good benefits that see him coast to a career high in points.

Auston Matthews (23 GP, 16 G, 9 A, 95 SOG, 21:30 TOI, 8 PPPts, 3:25 PP, 74.8% PP%)

After being selected first overall in 2016, Matthews made an instant impact, tallying 69 points for the Leafs that same season. From there things only got better….. literally, as Matthews saw his SOG and scoring rates increase in each of the next five campaigns, culminating in him posting 106 points in just 73 games in 2021-22. Last season though he saw his scoring drop to a still solid but definitely disappointing 94 point rate, with many thinking pressure of his impending unrestricted free agency was perhaps weighing heavily on him and negatively affecting his performance. Well he inked a new deal and yet here we are with him faring even worse for 2023-24 thus far. Can we bank on an improvement, or might he fall back to a level not seen since his third season in the league? Let's just say those counting on a return of the Matthews of old should prepare to be disappointed.

Looking first at Matthews' SOG rate, at 4.1 per game it's still exceptional; but for him it would mark a four season low. It also would be identical to his rate from 2019-20, which he ended at a 94-point scoring rate, or right where he sits now. Coincidence? Maybe not. Also, last season one could blame some of his scoring woes on a SH% that was a career low. But for 2023-24 his SH% sits above his career average, so if anything he should have a goal or even two less than he does not. So far, not so good.

It doesn't get better if we focus on PP SOG, where Mathews sits at 20 after 24 games. The good news is he isn't too far below his rate of 77 in 74 games from last season, but then again that was his worst season, so it's not ideal to see him even below that pace. Still, in his career best season he had 76 in 73 games, so seeing him right around one per game is not an alarming sign. Where there is concern, however, is he has 5 PPG on those 20 PPSOG, for a rate of one PPG per every four PP SOG, or a 25% success rate. Compare that to last season, when his success rate was 17.6% and his best season when it was only 21%. So that means perhaps another goal or two he's tallied that he shouldn't have.

Sticking with the PP, it used to be Matthews' bread and butter, as he peaked at a PP IPP of 85.7% as a sophomore. What's happened to his rate since then? It's fallen every single season and currently sits at a meager 50%. Do I think it will stay at 50%? Highly unlikely. But one can't ignore a trend that has seen his PP IPP go from 85.7% to 74.1% to 71.4% to 68.4% to 63.0% to 56.0%. So even if he does normalize, who's to say his "normal" is even above 60% at this point?

The situation with his IPP in general is no better. It was 70.8% or higher in each of his first six seasons, averaging 76.1%. But last season it dipped to 62.0% while for 2023-24 thus far it's a slightly better 65.8%. Still, it looks like a switch was flipped last season, turning the once explosive and superb Matthews into someone who's merely very good. What's more, if he wasn't playing for the high octane Leafs, and he had IPPs like he does now, he probably wouldn't be even be a point per game player.

In terms of other metrics, Matthews' offensive zone starting percentage is below 60%, which would be only the second time for that to occur in the past five seasons. So that's not doing him any favors, but it also likely won't fall further. On the plus side, he has a mere two secondary assists out of his total of nine, with his norm being closer to 40%. So that right there might be able to offset the goals he shouldn't have tallied.

Is there precedent for a player who did so well so early, as Matthews did, suddenly faring this much worse? Let's look at player comparables. Matthews had four seasons of 4.0+ SOG per game and 1.1+ point per game between the ages of 22 and 25. Just two other players also met those same criteria four times during that age span – Wayne Gtetzky and Paul Kariya. No offense to Matthews, but we can toss aside the Gtetzky comparison. And whereas Kariya was a wing, it is interesting to see his name pop up, as his stats started to worsen after age 25. Still, he had injury issues and, as noted, didn't play center. But him being a comparable can't be ignored.

If you're worried about Matthews, I'm afraid you should be. The good news is I don't see things getting worse; however, he's not showing signs of being on the cusp of righting his ship. I'd expect him to stay at or near this pace for the rest of 2023-24, so his scoring has been JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.0.

Tim Stutzle (20 GP, 5 G, 19A, 62 SOG, 22:08 TOI, 5 PPPts, 4:23 PP, 61.5% PP%)

Still only 21, Stutzle was grabbed third overall by the Sens in 2020-21 after he'd impressed overseas. He was thrust into the NHL that same season and managed a good but not great 29 points in 53 games. Rather than enduring a sophomore slump, Stutzle saw his scoring rate rise to 60 points in 2021-22, although he was overshadowed somewhat by his fellow center Josh Norris. But in 2022-23, with Norris injured for most of the season Stutzle stepped up big time, posting a scoring rate of 95, with a rate over 100 during the second half of the campaign. For 2023-24 thus far he's been in neutral. Should poolies accept this as his scoring pace at least until perhaps he hits his prime and finds another gear? The answer is no, as Stutzle should be able to improve his output over the rest of 2023-24.

All of Stutzle's metrics are trending in the right direction, from his SOG rate, which is set to increase again as it has ever season of his career thus far. The same is true for his TOI and his PP TOI. What's more – even as Stutzle is seeing nearly 30 seconds more PP time per game and about a minute more ice time overall, his PK minutes are actually trending a bit lower. In other words, his ice time gains are all minutes that are conducive to scoring, which is exactly what poolies want to see.

Not all is going superbly though, as Stutzle's OZ% is set to decline for the second straight campaign, from 59.6% last season to 55.2% for 2023-24 thus far. Still, that is not a big drop and I feel that his other increasing trends, especially in the face of this OZ%, bode well. And his OZ%, if anything, would be likely to rise rather than fall given his deployment.

Let's shift to the PP though, as Stutzle's PP TOI per game puts him in the top ten among all NHL forwards. Yet he has a mere five PPPts to show for it. What is the average number of PPTs of those forwards who've averaged more man advantage minutes per contest? It's 7.5, or 50% more than Stutzle's total. What's more, Stutzle has fired 14 PP SOG, without a single PPG to show for it.

Speaking of SH%, Stutzle's is unsustainably low given his past data. It too had grown with each passing season; so to see it stand now not even half of what it was in 2023-24, that is a glaring sign of unsustainable bad luck. And just to confirm that, his SOG from 0-15 feet stands at 15, from 16-30 feet at 23 and from 31+ feet at 19, which is pretty well in line with his numbers from 2022-23, which were, respectively, 66, 73, 65. Yes, maybe he's taking a few less shots up close and a few more from afar, but barely, and the difference is not even close to enough to account for his SH% being cut in half.

In terms of player comparables, by tallying ten PPGs and 90 points last season at age 21, Stutzle joined a club which, dating back to 2000-01, consists of only four other centers, namely Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and Eric Staal. That's some pretty solid company in which to find oneself, although as we know Staal never become a year in year out star.

Is Stutzle more like Staal than the others though? Crosby and Stamkos did meet the criteria before age 21, whereas that was the age for Staal and Malkin. But unlike Stutzle, Staal and Malkin were 21 in their second season. Should we be concerned that it has taken Stutzle longer in terms of age or seasons to do this versus these other centers? I'd say not, although it might make the comparison a bit less of a true fit.

Focusing on metrics, Stutzle's PP struggles are further illuminated by his PP IPP of only 50%. Yes, that's the same rate as Matthews; however, the takeaways are different, as for Stutzle he was at 71.1% two seasons ago and 66.7% last season. So a drop all the way to 50% seems like it's a temporary aberration more so than for Matthews. On the other hand, Stutzle's overall IPP has only once been above 70%, which was last season. Still, it's at 68.6% for 2023-24 thus far, and that's despite his lowly SH%. I see no way it stay below that key 70% threshold much longer. In short, these metrics don't suggest that Stutzle is doing better than he should in any area, and have realistic room to improve.

Sometimes these analyses are difficult, whereas in other instances – like this one – they're pretty straightforward. Looking at Stutzle's SH%, PP production, and PP IPP, it's clear that even though he's just under a 100-point-pace, that is too low to be sustained. Given that there are no other areas of concern, those support the proposition that his 2023-24 thus far has been TOO COLD and he gets a rating of 2.25, suggesting he should be in the 105-110 point range by the time the dust settles on the 2023-24 campaign.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.