Ramblings: Shesterkin’s Struggles; Korpisalo; Crouse; Waiver Fill-Ins & More (Dec 13)

Alexander MacLean

2023-12-13

Halfway through the Leafs/Rangers game I had one of my league-mates ask me what was wrong with Igor Shesterkin. Coincidentally I own Shesterkin in that league. Or perhaps it wasn't and he was fishing to try and buy-low. Regardless, goalies are the epitome of small sample sizes, and we expect those to normalize faster than they do. Especially in H2H leagues or when you're watching your goalie get blown up for four goals against in a period.

Last night I think the Rangers were really missing Miller for one. He may be one of the most under-appreciated players in the main-stream media. Look up some highlight packages, they're fun to watch even for the casual fan.

Back to Shesterkin though, he has had bad stretches like this before, even as recent as last season when his Q3 numbers had him at a GAA of 3.33 and a save percentage of .883 across twelve games. Only a quarter of those games were quality starts, and his GSAA over that span was -7.13. This may go on for two more games, or twelve, but eventually the best goalies like Shesterkin do figure things out, and they figure it out faster when they have a better team in front of him. I would happily wager now that he still finishes the season over a .910 save percentage.

May not be a bad time to check in with the owner in your league as well.

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Another Ranger that has grossly underperformed this year is Blake Wheeler, he had two goals last night, but that still only brought him up to eight points in 27 games. He seems to be cooked at this point, so I hope you're not holding out hope for a return to form here.   

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A few of my fantasy teams lost Adam Fantilli and K'Andre Miller who are both away from their teams for personal reasons – wishing them the best.

In the meantime, here are a few players I looked into as short-term fillers that were available in these leagues:

Gus Forsling – It's always tough picking up a player after a big game because the odds are they just used up all of their luck for the next little while on those few points.

Jake McCabe – McCabe may only have five points on the season, but they have all come recently, along with some higher ice time numbers. His only game under 19:50 recently was because he was sitting in the box for a fair bit of the game. He has at least one hit and one block in each of his last six games, peaking with two games of seven hits. If your league has peripherals McCabe is worth a look.

Ryan Hartman – New coach John Hynes has been playing Hartman down in the lineup, but that seems to just be motivating him, with points in two straight, to go with five hits and four shots over those same two games. Not a long-term solution, but a decent bet to plug in for the six games in nine days he has coming up from the 14th to the 23rd.

Jake Neighbours – He recently put together a seven-game streak in November where he notched eight points, and he's now listed to be lining up with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. Deployment doesn't get better than that in St. Louis.

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Michael Carcone was one of the breakout one-way contract players that I profiled in this year's fantasy guide, but he's surpassing even the lofty expectations I had for him in the middle of last summer – I thought he could score 30+ points on Arizona's third line and be the next late-blooming Michael Bunting that they would bring up that would add some scoring and peripherals. Well, he's on pace for 52 points, has 1.5 shots per game, and two hits every three games… and he has some of the most "sell-high" looking numbers I have ever seen. His shooting percentage is three times above what would be considered normal, his team's shooting percentage with him on the ice is also 1.5 times what it should be. He's playing 10 minutes per game, and starting less than half of his shifts in the offensive zone.

If he had a more reasonable five goals and four assists in 27 games, then he would be pretty much on pace for the 30-point season I was hoping for. Expect that pace the rest of the way, to see him finish around the 40-point mark.

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Tage Thompson received RW designation in Yahoo a few days ago, so you can make of that what you will. Tage has been playing on a line with Casey Mittelstadt, who may have been one of the most underrated scorers in the last calendar year, with 58 points in 65 games since last year's all-star break.

The team overall looks to be turning things around, with Devon Levi finally getting some defence in front of him, and even the fourth line – with new addition Eric Robinson – adding some scoring as well.

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Lawson Crouse hit his 400-game breakout threshold around the all-star break last season, and put up a very solid stretch from there to the end of the season. He has further built upon that this year with his 19 points and 65 shots through 27 games. Though, as it happens when players start scoring more, the hits go down. This is Crouse's first season under two hits per game. Like with Brady Tkachuk and plenty of others before, they still give you good volume, but it's unlikely to be excellent Hit volume again.

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Two of my dynasty prospects in Henry Thrun and Jonatan Berggren are getting the yo-yo treatment right now, being called up and sent down a few times this year, and even a few more times over the last few days. Neither are likely to make any kind of fantasy impact this year (though Berggren did score last night while playing on the fourth line again), but both should win a full-time lineup spot next year, and should be fantasy relevant soon after. Worth a dynasty stash if you're already looking ahead.

Jakub Vrana cleared waivers this afternoon, and though there is offensively something there, he has to be given a real shot to make it happen. We'll see if that happens after news of Berube’s firing, or maybe next fall.

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Jumping to another Red Wings winger who was on the bubble with St. Louis for years, Jake Walman scored against his former team last night which had to feel good. Despite the recent cold streak, he's still on a 40-point-pace, and has settled in very well in a second-pairing role with the Red Wings.

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I had mentioned Sebastian Aho and his quietly excellent season last week, so he went on a four-game pointless streak just to break out again last night with three points, and bring himself right into his usual point-per-game pace. His shooting percentage is still a little low, but overall it's sometimes just nice to have a consistent producer on your fantasy squad that you don't have to worry about.

His three points were part of Carolina's four goals against Joonas Korpisalo, who can't seem to string two good starts together. It's always tough when a goalie changes teams, most of them need a while to get used to the new defencemen and new systems. It's even tougher when the goalie has a history of poor numbers like Korpisalo.

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If you need some off-night games, the Anaheim Ducks (surprise, surprise) have a Wed/Fri/Sun slate coming up. Though it is against the New York area trio, so I wouldn't go streaming their goalies.

After that we get into the holiday schedule with a few quirks. From Dec 18th to 24th, every team plays three games, except for the Wild and Red Wings, who play four games each.

Then, from Dec 25th to Jan 1st, every team plays three games except a few Western teams who play two (ARZ, CGY, SEA, VGK) and the Canucks who play one game. Filter those Canucks out now for someone who is going to help you a little more before the New Year.

Wouldn't surprise me if the Canucks come out the first week in January a little rusty as well, having only one game during the holiday break, and presumably a few good meals in there as well.

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This is how you grow the game. Input from the big stars, a focus on them, and incentive to have them show-off their best. I might tune into the festivities for the first time in over a decade to be able to watch it. If the league is working with stars on events like this moving forward, the league is going to be in a good place.

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The Blues fired head coach Craig Berube, which I will have something up on later today. If Vrana stays in the organization, maybe he gets another shot. In the meantime, this should be good news for Scott Perunovich, and Pavel Buchnevich, whom fantasy owners had higher hopes for coming into this year.

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In the battle of the Connors, Connor Bedard scored first, but that was the Blackhawks’ only offence on the day. As much as you need stars to win, in hockey they can’t do it all themselves. Connor McDavid recorded two assists on the night, and seems to be back to his expected supernova production.

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BUF Players
20.3 JJ PETERKA PEYTON KREBS DYLAN COZENS
20.2 SAM LAFFERTY JIRI KULICH ZACH BENSON
19.1 JASON ZUCKER ALEX TUCH TAGE THOMPSON

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