Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. The Blackhawks might be the worst team in the NHL right now. Remember when we said the Sharks were in a league of their own in that category? Well, if I had my own team power rankings (which I don’t), I’m sure the Sharks would no longer be dead last after their recent run of six wins in their last nine games. For the Blackhawks, it's now Connor Bedard and a whole bunch of players I needed a program (or the new feature on scoreboards that matches players on the ice with their numbers) to look up.

Bedard didn't seem to have his best stuff on Thursday in Seattle, where I watched the Hawks-Kraken play before returning home from a field trip. I begin to wonder if the lack of depth is going to eat away at his production for the rest of the season. After all, it’s not like the Blackhawks will be loading up at the trade deadline. He's going to need to be surrounded by better players in order to reach his potential, and a major part of that will be from players the Hawks haven’t drafted yet. (dec16) 

2. With Justin Schultz out, Ryker Evans has posted four points over his last three games. Evans has also played on the Kraken’s second-unit power play, one that seems to get solid minutes compared to other teams. Dave Hakstol even made Schultz a healthy scratch so that Evans could make his NHL debut back on December 7. That means Evans may not necessarily be returned to the AHL once Schultz is out. At time of writing, Evans was rostered in just 16 percent of Fantrax leagues, and he possesses solid keeper value (44 PTS in 73 GP in the AHL last season) as well as a bit of near-term potential. (dec16)

3. Other news regarding the Kraken, as they acquired Tomas Tatar from the Avalanche for a fifth-round pick. The Kraken have never seemed to have a shortage of middle-six-type forwards during their existence, so at first glance this trade might seem like a head-scratcher. However, both Andre Burakovsky and Jaden Schwartz are expected to be on IR for a while, and both are left wingers. (Jordan Eberle, lower body, also missed Saturday's game). Tatar can play at that position or allow another Seattle forward to be shifted there. He has not been productive this season (9 PTS in 27 GP when acquired), but the acquisition cost and cap hit ($1.5 million) are both very inexpensive. The Kraken have also recalled Shane Wright. (dec16)

4. Kevin Shattenkirk might seem obsolete in fantasy leagues by now. Yet because Charlie McAvoy is on IR with an upper-body injury, Shattenkirk is making some noise again. In the three games that McAvoy has been out of the lineup (entering Saturday action), Shattenkirk has three points – all on the power play. Included in that are two power-play assists from Friday’s game against the Islanders. This could turn out very similarly to Erik Gustafsson‘s value improving with Adam Fox out of the lineup earlier this season. The Bruins have a top-10 power play in the league, so the potential for more points is there while McAvoy is out. (dec16) 

5. We might have to rethink Bo Horvat‘s fantasy value taking a hit after being traded to the Islanders. Entering Saturday, Horvat had a nine-game point streak in which he had 15 points (6 G, 9 A),, pushing over the point-per-game mark this season (29 points in 28 games). With Horvat, Mathew Barzal, and Noah Dobson all at or over the point-per-game mark this season, the Islanders might be better offensively than you’ve been led to believe. (dec16) 

6. Patrik Laine is expected to miss the next six weeks with a fractured clavicle from Thursday’s game against Toronto. Laine has had almost no luck this season, recording nine points (6 G, 3 A) in 18 games while also missing time to illness and even a healthy scratch. I would think Laine will be elevated to full Band-Aid Boy status this offseason, as he has played in just 56 and 55 games over the previous two seasons. He is rostered in just 38% of Yahoo leagues and could be droppable in even more, which is a far cry from when he seemed like a star in the making over his first few seasons in Winnipeg. Maybe he gets it going in Columbus again, but this seems more and more like a lost season for Laine. (dec16) 

7. Jonathan Quick might be the most ideal spot starter in fantasy leagues. Quick has a 9-0-1 record with a 2.09 GAA and .927 SV%. The 37-year-old appeared to be on the decline after posting subpar numbers last season, but he has reversed that trend. Maybe a well-rested Quick is the best Quick? He is at least in the conversation for more playing time, as he is outperforming starter Igor Shesterkin (11-7-0, 2.91 GAA, 0.904 SV%). In one league where I have gone total Zero G, I added Quick recently. (dec16) 

8. It seemed really unfortunate that it wasn’t long after Detroit got Patrick Kane in their lineup that Dylan Larkin took the cross-check and was injured. Detroit has been one of the better stories in the NHL over the first two months and seeing this team at full strength was something fantasy owners were looking forward to. In the Good News Department, Larkin was in a non-contact jersey during Detroit’s Thursday morning skate.

Coach Lalonde said after the skate that there’s hope Larkin is back in the lineup before the Christmas break. The Red Wings have a four-game week next week including a home game against Anaheim on Monday so getting him back by then would be a boon for fantasy owners, though there’s no official timeline for his return. (sep15)

9. Max Pacioretty was back on the ice for Washington this week. He will need weeks to get up to speed, but things could line up for Pacioretty to easily be activated to the roster in a few weeks. (sep15)

10. Yesterday’s Ramblings handed out unique fantasy awards so far this year, focusing solely on forwards. Today’s Ramblings will focus on both defensemen and goalies. Ready? Good.

The Johnny Boychuk Award

The nature of the position lends to a lot of defensemen being proficient in multi-cat formats. Not all of them are productive, though, and there was a time when Boychuk could be relied upon for 25-35 points while putting up over 300 hits+blocks and two shots per game. More goals in this era of the NHL leads to more points, but who is bringing the multi-cat value despite not having a top PP role? We’ll factor in preseason draft slotting.

And the winner is… MacKenzie Weegar.

Heading into Thursday’s games, there were three defensemen to manage at least two shots per game, 50 hits, and 50 blocks this season while posting at least 10 points. We could have Jacob Trouba here but having under two shots per game eliminated him.

Despite Calgary’s struggles, Weegar is on pace for 48 points, 336 hits+blocks, and 209 shots. That is an unreal multi-cat season from a guy that was often taken outside the top-25 defensemen in multi-cat drafts. (sep15)

11. The Kevin Shattenkirk Award

Once upon a time, Shattenkirk was the second fiddle to Alex Pietrangelo in St. Louis. Despite that, they often both managed 40-point seasons at the same time. Which defenseman has been the best second fiddle this season?

And the winner is… Filip Hronek.

There really isn’t a second choice here. We maybe could have gone with Jake Walman from Detroit but Hronek is a legitimate 70-point threat while posting over two shots and one block per game. He has been the biggest beneficiary (well, maybe Brock Boeser) of Vancouver’s surge this season. It’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain it over the next four months. (sep15)

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12. On a related note, some of my other entries of late have been looking back on things like preseason predictions and over/undervalued players that are under/overperforming my expectations. So, let's hand out some awards, starting with the forwards. These awards won’t be the typical fake MVP or Top Goal Scorer trophies, but hopefully something a bit more unique.  

The David Backes Award

Backes was always one of my favourite fantasy players because his ability to produce across the board year after year was the kind of consistency fantasy owners dream of. While a lot of what constitutes a ‘multi-category’ player depends on the specific settings of an individual league, here I’ll count goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits, and blocks. We are also going to factor in preseason draft position as it took a few years for Backes’s production to really impact his draft slotting, so we’ll apply that to this award.

And the winner is… Filip Forsberg

It’s true that JT Miller has generally been more valuable overall, but Forsberg was routinely outside the top-100 picks in a lot of drafts for 2023-24. It is very plausible he went outside the first 10 rounds of 12-team drafts and was nowhere near a cornerstone of fantasy rosters. Conversely, Miller was often a top-50 pick in fantasy drafts, sometimes being drafted in the third rounds of 12-teamers. That is enormous value for Forsberg, so he gets the nod.

Andrew Brunette has the Predators skating well offensively and Forsberg has been great on the top line with Ryan O’Reilly as his center. There is nothing about his profile that screams regression so he could just be in line for a tremendous fantasy season. I’m sure that Miller fantasy owners are extremely happy with their selection (I know I am in the leagues I have him in), but Forsberg’s surge on a team that was not expected to do anything this year should be highlighted. (dec14)

13.The Jakub Vrana Award

Whatever people think of Vrana now (I still think he’s a darn good offensive player), it wasn’t long ago he was one of the most efficient 5-on-5 scorers in the league. It was something he did for several years, too, but rarely got big minutes to build off that. With that in mind, who has been a great producer this year at 5-on-5 but isn’t getting commensurate minutes?

And the winner is… Nils Hoglander

Ok this is cheating a bit. We could have used Michael Carcone here, but he’s stuck behind the team’s stars and a really good second line. Alex Holtz kind of has the same issue in New Jersey. However, as of Wednesday afternoon, Hoglander was fourth in the league in goals per minute at 5-on-5, but 300^th in 5-on-5 ice time on a team that had Phil DiGiuseppe in the top-6 for like seven weeks. That has changed with Hoglander’s recent move up the lineup, but that had been a big problem for him this season.

Hoglander is a guy that typically did a lot of the little things well – zone entries, playmaking – but couldn’t put it all together consistently. If he has, and he can stay in the top-6, he could have very good value in banger leagues over the next 50-some games. (dec14)

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14. St. Louis fired coach Craig Berube early Wednesday morning. The team has struggled in most areas this year but what sticks out is the power play: 31^st in goals per minute with the man advantage (at time of writing). In an era where power play production is more important than it’s been in at least a decade, if not longer, being that bad on special teams will not help fantasy value. I have often written over the last year and a half about the loss of David Perron and how that hurt their PP production, and that’s certainly continued.

While Blues fans would like to see more wins on the board, if the team can’t improve their PP goal scoring dramatically, it’s hard to say there’ll be a sharp increase in fantasy value. Their PP goals per minute are less than half the league average; there is a long way to go to respectability. With so much money tied up in a lot of players for at least two more seasons (if not longer), bringing in outside help is going to be tough. They have to make-do with what they have, and we’ll find out shortly if it was just a coaching issue.

The team did announce the hiring of Brad Richards to help out with the power play, so a step in the right direction at least. (dec14)

You can read Alex's take on Berube's firing here.

15. I had one of my league-mates ask me what was wrong with Igor Shesterkin. Coincidentally I own Shesterkin in that league. Or perhaps it wasn’t and he was fishing to try and buy-low. Regardless, goalies are the epitome of small sample sizes, and we expect those to normalize faster than they do. Especially in H2H leagues or when you’re watching your goalie get blown up for four goals against in a period.

Shesterkin has had bad stretches like this before, even as recent as last season when his Q3 numbers had him at a GAA of 3.33 and a save percentage of 0.883 across 12 games. Only a quarter of those games were quality starts, and his GSAA over that span was -7.13. This may go on for two more games, or 12, but eventually the best goalies like Shesterkin do figure things out, and they figure it out faster when they have a better team in front of him. I would happily wager now that he still finishes the season over a 0.910 save percentage.

May not be a bad time to check in with the owner in your league as well. (dec13)

16. Michael Carcone was one of the breakout one-way contract players that I profiled in this year’s Fantasy Guide, but he’s surpassing even the lofty expectations I had for him in the middle of last summer – I thought he could score 30+ points on Arizona’s third line and be the next late-blooming Michael Bunting that they would bring up that would add some scoring and peripherals. Well, at time of writing, he was on pace for 52 points, had 1.5 shots per game, and two hits every three games… and some of the most “sell-high” looking numbers I have ever seen. His shooting percentage is three times above what would be considered normal, his team’s shooting percentage with him on the ice is also 1.5 times what it should be. He’s playing 10 minutes per game, and starting less than half of his shifts in the offensive zone. (dec13)

17. Isak Rosen was sent back to the AHL by Buffalo ahead of Monday night’s game against Arizona with Brett Murray coming back the other way. Rosen was held pointless in seven games with the Sabres though he played in the bottom-6 virtually the entire time and skated under nine minutes per night.

It is a reminder that while Buffalo has a lot of good, young talent, the team still needs time for this talent to develop further. New Jersey drafted Jesper Bratt in 2016, Nico Hischier in 2017, Jack Hughes in 2019, and Alex Holtz in 2020. The team’s record from 2019-2022 was 74-105-28, or a .425 points percentage. That works out to 70 points every 82 games for three years with three of these players on the roster. In other words, even with a lot of top, young talent in the organization, it took a few years for it all to come together. That seems likely for Buffalo, too.

I am as excited about the fantasy upside for players like Jiri Kulich, Zach Benson, Matthew Savoie, and Noah Ostlund as the next fantasy owner, but it just may take some time for it all to come together. Perhaps a good buy-low opportunity in dynasty for some of the younger players? (dec12)

18. In any fantasy hockey endeavour, it is important to update what you think you know about certain players. Every fantasy owner has opinions on key players, and it’ll lead us to overvaluing or undervaluing these options. I thought it would be worth going through some players that I wasn’t high on personally but whose play through the first third of the season has opened my eyes a bit.

Lucas Raymond

Raymond was actually the genesis behind this idea because I wrote about him at a different publication and the improvements he made. Without cribbing from that article, Raymond’s playmaking and transition numbers, as tracked by AllThreeZones, have skyrocketed this year so there is a good reason why his play-driving numbers, and subsequent production, have all improved.

Whenever I watch Detroit and I see a winger make a play that makes me rewind the game, it’s almost always Raymond. This is no slight to Alex DeBrincat – a guy I was very high on this season – but Raymond just constantly stands out in the offensive zone. There should be concerns about Raymond’s production given his usage will be an ongoing concern with Patrick Kane on the roster, but dynasty owners should certainly be heartened by the improvements Raymond has made. (dec12)

19. Juraj Slafkovský

With the emergence of Alexis Lafrenière and especially Quinton Byfield, my hope is that we, as a society, will stop giving up on top picks after a couple seasons. Whether Slafkovský becomes a high-end winger remains to be seen, but just focusing on his point totals misses the progress he’s made.

Again at Evolving Hockey, they had Slaf with an expected goals-for driving rate in the 9^th percentile as a rookie, which was truly awful. That has completely reversed itself so far this season as that rate has jumped to the 75^th percentile, or a borderline first-line rate. It hasn’t led to a lot of actual goals for the Habs, but the team is also bottom-5 in the league by even strength scoring. He has largely been kept off the top line until recently and with their injuries, there isn’t a lot to play with outside that top line.

It must be said that I am a Habs fan and maybe there are rose-coloured glasses here. However, there are a handful of times every game where Slaf wins a board battle to regain/retain possession, makes a great cross-ice pass, or disrupts the opponent’s breakout and those are things he did not do often last season. All the pieces are starting to come together, and he may be on the Lafrenière/Byfield trajectory of being a very productive top-6 winger in a couple years. (dec12)

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20. We often see players take their game to new levels when in the final year of a contract – motivated to maximize their market value before signing a new deal. Such a description seems appropriate for Sam Reinhart , who’s an unrestricted free agent after this year. What he’s done so far has been very impressive, but I don’t expect him to keep up this pace. (dec11)

21. One of my favourites from Dobber’s Frozen Tools is the Schedule Planner, which shows you which teams are playing during any given timeframe. One thing this reveals is who’s playing on ‘light nights’, when there aren’t many games scheduled. With fewer games on tap, you should have more open slots on your fantasy roster. So, a free agent that plays multiple ‘light nights’ in a given week will have more chances to contribute to your team.

Another useful bit of information the Schedule Planner shows is how many goals a team’s opposition is scoring and conceding. If you need offense from the waiver wire, it makes sense to target players facing teams that are giving up lots of goals. If you need a goalie for the week, you’d prefer if they’re up against teams that aren’t scoring a lot. I tend to prioritize a light-night schedule when discussing free agents because they’re meant to fill holes in your lineup, and those holes are more likely to exist on light nights. (dec11)

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Have a good week, folks!
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