Ramblings: Imminent Injury Returns for Quinn, Couture & Pacioretty; Minnesota’s Injury Fallout; Players Whose Season Won’t Get Better & More (Dec 20)

Alexander MacLean

2023-12-20

Jack Quinn made his return to the Buffalo lineup, and though it was a tough game for the team and Quinn was minus two, he did also add a shot and a hit in 15 minutes of ice time. He's a big overall addition to help lengthen this already deep offensive lineup, and worth checking out in most fantasy leagues for the rest of the season.

The rest of the Sabres didn't fare very well, getting blown out 9-4 by Columbus – including a Kirill Marchenko hat-trick.

One has to wonder how much more rope Buffalo Head Coach Don Granato has left. It can't be much, and that could bring some interesting changes to the team, though maybe most notably in fantasy would be sorting out how to get Dylan Cozens back on track.

Jumping back to Achilles injuries, the other player on his way back from an Achilles tear is Max Pacioretty, who is back in a regular sweater. He could be back in the lineup anytime now. The last time he returned from an Achilles injury he put up three goals in four games, so he's someone you can plug back in immediately this time around with some confidence as well.

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Both Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev left the game after blocking shots. Cernak returned, but unfortunately Sergachev didn't. He has played to nearly a 50-point pace this year, putting up some reduced, but still solid peripherals. If he misses anytime then it gives Victor Hedman a further stranglehold on the offensive minutes, and it may give Darren Raddysh a short-term boost on the second-unit power play. In deeper points-only formats there could be some value.

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With initial word out that Mats Zuccarello is out on a week-to-week basis, figuring out his replacement could give you a bit of a medium-term boost. Unfortunately, it's not that easy. Zucc was playing on a great line with Marco Rossi and Kirill Kaprizov, but last night's lines saw Kaprizov lined up beside Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek, while Marco Rossi was flanked by Marcus Foligno and Ryan Hartman.

Those two wingers could see a boost, but the biggest value could be in the ever-under-appreciated Eriksson Ek. He's already a monster cross-category performer, but if he lines up (and finds chemistry) with Kaprizov, then he could be a league-winner. He's at over 3.5 shots per game, one PIM per game, nearly two hits per game, and almost a full block per game as well which is high for a forward. For the last three seasons JEE has been a 60-point-player, and playing with Kaprizov regularly the upside is there for a point-per-game pace. His assist on Kaprizov's game winner is just the start.

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A quick note on something more important than hockey:

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Jacob Markstrom had a nice bounce-back game upon his return from injury. I'm rostering him in a few leagues, but with Calgary on the whole struggling as much as they are, even if he bounces back to top form, there's only so much help that he is going to bring your fantasy team this season. Meanwhile, Johnny Gaudreau put up three points last night, bringing him to a round 50-point-pace and that was despite playing just 14 minutes in the blowout. He takes himself off this list as well as he should be able to pace for at least 65-points the rest of the way, but the upside is capped just by virtue of being a Blue Jacket.

I wanted to sprint through a few players who I think that we're getting to that point in the season where regardless of previous expectations, we just have to assume there won't be any bounce-back from them this year.

One of the main culprits has been Timo Meier, but it sounds like he has been dealing with an injury. Once his explosive skating is back to its usual level, then we can judge. In the meantime, I'll leave him in the buy-low pile.

Alex Ovechkin will ultimately bust his slump, and will have a few excellent games to get back on track and score at least the 20-goal plateau (if not 25 or 30). His hit and shot rates ae down, but if you want the details on exactly what kind of decline he's going through, there are a lot of in-depth articles out there to find.

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Who I am more worried about is John Carlson. Who is pacing for his worst season in seven years, and the team around him isn't helping. The soon-to-be 34–year-old is shooting less this season than he has the entire past decade. The underlying numbers do point towards some positive regression, but there's only so much upside that he has at this point.

Andrei Svechnikov with his injuries, Vladimir Tarasenko with his inconsistency and a new coach, and especially Andrei Kuzmenko and his current all-around situation are all players I'm avoiding the rest of the season. Tyler Bertuzzi, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Tony DeAngelo are others that I have sold on in fantasy leagues this year as I don't believe their fantasy value will catch up to the name value. Aside from them, most fantasy-relevant players that went in the top-200 in your drafts shoul have some kind of bounce back if they're struggling mightily.

Brandon Montour will get his feet back under him, Rickard Rakell is still able to keep up with the Penguins' stars, Matty Beniers had two points last game while looking dominant, and should bust his Sophomore slump soon. Jeff Skinner, P.L. Dubois, and Jordan Kyrou, all decent buy-lows, while Igor Shesterkin, Tage Thompson, and Jason Robertson are guys you should be doing anything to get your hands on.

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Logan Couture also was back at practice and took a regular part in the skills portion. It sounds like he's still a bit of time away from contact, but the team really does need him back. Don't get your hopes up too high though, as Couture is a 34–year-old 60-point-player, who will be playing for a team worse than any he has ever been on.

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Join the DobberHockey Forums today and you could enter the World Junior Championship pool that some of our awesome members are running for the 16th year. You can find the specific post for it linked here.

I won't dive into my exact picks for it, but I will say that I maxed out my five entries for the CAN, USA, and SWE teams. A total of 20 skaters and two goalies are selected. My two goalies were ones where I was more certain of the starting goalie role, and not wasting high-octane offensive picks to make them (i.e. the trade off of owning a forward from Canada versus a goalie from a smaller European nation instead of a more variable goalie from Canada and a forward from a lower-scoring team).

The "Captains" are included so that the top few players aren't owned by every team, and it makes the strategy a bit more interesting. If you select Will Smith or Matt Savoie as your forward captain, you have one less other slot from either USA or CAN. Generally, to win in these kinds of pools where a lot of entries are picking from a smaller sub-section of players, you have to be different somewhere. I tried to do that with how I stacked my lineup around my captain selection, and then with how I selected my leftover few players spread out down to the second tier of teams who could all win quarter-final games. Having those extra couple of games in the medal rounds are big for extra points.

At this point my bets would be on a Final between Sweden and the USA. Canada doesn't have the star power to keep up with those two in my opinion, while Finland looks ripe to be upset, and the Czechs and Slovaks look like they could be primed to surprise a few teams in a chase for Bronze.

It's some of the best hockey of the year. Enjoy, and Happy Holidays to all in advance.

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
25.8 NICK SCHMALTZ ALEXANDER KERFOOT CLAYTON KELLER
17.5 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
17.2 AKU RATY JACK MCBAIN MATIAS MACCELLI

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