Looking Ahead: A Star-Studded Week
Andrew Santillo
2023-12-22
Welcome back everyone! Ah yes, the week before Christmas. If you're like me you're not only scrolling up and down Microsoft Teams looking at all the names with an OOO next to them, but also scanning the waiver looking for value. Probably more the latter, but that's most days for me. Let's see what we got cookin' for this week's Looking Ahead!
Note: Stats do not include Thursday’s games.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars (Rostered in 48% of ESPN leagues, 80% Fantrax, 56% Yahoo) – Never did I think Duchene would be an Immediate Fix, but here we are. He was at one time a Building Block back when the Nashville top line became the greatest line on the planet for about two months, and although we're not living in January 2021 anymore, he has immediate value.
The Dallas Stars are a weird team. There's no other way I can put it. Their third line carried them at points, their power play comes and goes, and now with an injury to Jake Oettinger they're starting Scott Wedgewood which has a last name of a golf course. We only point out hard facts here at DobberHockey. Still, this club is still loaded with talent and although it looked like they just flat outran out of steam last playoffs, I like where this club is right now, and I think Matt Duchene is a perfect fantasy addition.
I really liked Duchene earlier in the week as an addition and while it looks like the word has somewhat gotten out, I'd imagine there's still plenty of leagues where he is available. He has seven points in his last four games and as far as the Dallas second line goes, they have been their best line for the past three games as far as scoring goes. If your fantasy lineup is set before the Christmas Break that's A-OK, because I think Duchene's value really comes into play next week. Why next week? They play the Chicago Blackhawks twice. I don't think I need to dive any deeper there.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Thomas Harley, D, Dallas Stars (Rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, 44% Fantrax, 8% Yahoo) – Another Dallas Star! Ya know what, it's Dallas Sars appreciation week here on Looking Ahead. They did give me a free ticket to a pre-season game at their pro shop when I was in Frisco, TX one time and never got a chance to truly thank them. I do think though for fantasy this is a player I've had circled for a while now and I think now is the time to make that addition if your club is in need of defense.
I'm pretty high on Harley and believe I wrote about him in a Dallas Stars preseason article here a season or two ago back when he was a prospect for them. Two seasons ago there were times during games where the Stars would throw him out there on powerplay one instead of Miro Heiskanen and while was mostly later in the season trying things out before playoffs, I do think there was something to that. Right now, he has three points in three games to go along with the eight goals and five assists he has so far on the season, I could see maybe a world where he ends the season at the 35-point mark? I don't think that's unreasonable to imagine and playing on the Dallas second power play helps.
I'm in a league on each prominent fantasy site, with two over on ESPN. Just scrolling up and down waivers, I think that there are some names that stand out on defense but going to Harley now might be a play to make, especially if Dallas starts to go on a run in the near future. If you're set at defense right now maybe just throw a notification next to his name in fantasy but for those out there dealing with injuries, he could be an addition to make for a week or two and then circle back and see where you are health-wise.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Jared Spurgeon, D, Minnesota Wild (Rostered in 50% of ESPN leagues, 40% Fantrax, 19% Yahoo) – The past two seasons, maybe even three, in my primary league I don't think there's been a player added and dropped more than Jared Spurgeon. He's ultimately dropped sometimes by production but this season it has everything to do with health.
The Minnesota Wild are last in the NHL right now in scoring and I think not having Spurgeon in their lineup is a big contributor to that. Kirill Kaprizov being snake-bit right now also doesn't help but this club at all strengths misses what Spurgeon brought to the lineup. Right now, he's listed as "Out" in fantasy, and it can be difficult this time of the year to really keep an ear to fantasy and morning skates to know if a player is in or out.
I think the roster numbers are higher here because when Spurgeon plays, he's usually pretty productive be it by offensive ability or hits/blocked shots and still has fantasy value for those attributes. If you're in a league where you don't mind rotating your IR then I think holding on to Spurgeon makes sense, but in leagues where that's not the case you may need to make a decision sooner rather than later.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Timo Meier, LW/RW, New Jersey Devils (Rostered in 88% of ESPN leagues, 89%, Fantrax, 80% Yahoo) – Timo. Buddy. Pal. What happened? If New Jersey isn't playing the way that they are currently, then this trade looks not so great in hindsight. This is a player I still do really like for fantasy but maybe this season just isn't the one to roster him.
So, let's start out with the good here, he is eligible to play at both wing positions in most leagues and is still shooting the puck a fair bit. Yay good. Now the not-so-good…ice time is way down as he's now on the New Jersey bottom six and he hasn't registered a point in the last 30 days. Admittedly I don't get to catch a ton of New Jersey but am really curious here why the falloff right now? Last season as well following the trade I thought maybe this was just a sense that he wasn't acclimating to the way New Jersey plays as fast as we would have hoped?
I have had Timo circled in my main league now for about a week as he is now on our waivers but just can't pull the trigger right now on him. It stinks because we know exactly what he can bring to a fantasy lineup and if you're league is like mine right now, the upside potential has to be there. For now, I think if he's on your waivers that's just where he needs to remain and if he's on your roster I think you have a choice to make here. If your lineups are larger and don't necessarily need to start him most nights than maybe holding onto him is fine, but that's only the case if there's nobody else on waivers that you have in mind to add to your roster.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through December 22nd – January 3rd
NY Rangers – It's time to roster the Rangers second line in DFS my friends! The Rangers are a Love Em with three out of their next five games at home with their only road games coming with both Florida clubs. Easy travel and they stay in their own time zone, the Rangers are a team to target for now.
Dallas – As listed above, the Stars play the Blackhawks next week twice. We're just going to keep moving right on down the list.
Los Angeles – I had trouble coming up with a third club that stood out but ultimately landed on Los Angeles. Their schedule travel-wise has really started to even out and with this club in action frequently upcoming they're a club that I don't mind targeting.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Vancouver – The Canucks play once next week which is going to be a roster nightmare for all those out there with Canucks in their lineup.
Vegas – Not to the severity of Vancouver, but this is a club that's higher rostered in fantasy and almost always higher rostered in DFS. With only two games next week, they are a Leave 'Em for the time being.
Arizona – Had to really search for one here but ultimately, we're going to throw the Yotes on the Leave 'Em side of things. They'll play the Avalanche twice which can be a matchup headache and won't be in action much upcoming.
Friday, December 22nd to Thursday, December 28th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers 3.31 – Home EDM BUF WSH |
Chicago 3.21 – Away STL – Home MTL WPG |
Los Angeles 3.21 – Away VGK – Home CGY SJS |
Detroit 3.11 – Away NJD MIN – Home PHI |
Carolina 3.06 – Away NSH – Home NYI MTL |
Steer Clear |
Nashville 1.79 – Home DAL CAR |
Buffalo 1.80 – Away NYR – Home BOS |
Arizona 1.80 – Away COL – Home COL |
Washington 1.80 – Away NYR – Home TBL |
Dallas 1.81 – Away NSH STL |
Saturday, December 23rd to Thursday, December 29th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Anaheim 3.41 – Home SEA VGK ARI |
Los Angeles 3.21 – Away VGK – Home CGY SJS |
New Jersey 3.20 – Away OTT – Home DET CBJ |
Colorado 3.20 – Away ARI STL – Home ARI |
NY Rangers 3.16 – Away FLA – Home BUF WSH |
Steer Clear |
Montreal .76 – Away CAR |
Edmonton 1.14 – Away SJS |
Winnipeg 1.14 – Away CHI |
Buffalo 1.80 – Away NYR – Home BOS |
Pittsburgh 1.81 – Away OTT NYI |
Sunday, December 24th to Saturday, December 30th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Los Angeles 3.26 – Away VGK – Home SJS EDM |
Columbus 3.14 – Away NJD BUF – Home TOR |
Calgary 3.11 – Away NSH TOR – Home MTL |
Florida 3.06 – Away TBL – Home NYR MTL |
New Jersey 2.96 – Away OTT BOS – Home CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Calgary 1.16 – Home SEA |
Vancouver 1.21 – Home PHI |
Montreal 1.66 – Away CAR FLA |
Pittsburgh 1.81 – Away NYI – Home STL |
Detroit 1.85 – Away MIN – Home NSH |
Monday, December 25th to Sunday, December 31st, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Dallas 3.42 – Away STL – Home CHI CHI |
Anaheim 3.31 – Home VGK ARI EDM |
Ottawa 3.26 – Away TOR – Home NJD BUF |
Los Angeles 3.26 – Away VGK – Home SJS EDM |
Colorado 3.26 – Away ARI STL – Home SJS |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 1.21 – Home PHI |
Arizona 1.99 – Away ARI – Home COL |
Vegas 1.99 – Away ANA – Home LAK |
Seattle 2.11 – Away CGY – Home PHI |
Calgary 2.36 – Home SEA PHI |
Tuesday, December 26th to Monday, January 1st, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Dallas 3.42 – Away STL – Home CHI CHI |
Anaheim 3.31 – Home VGK ARI EDM |
Ottawa 3.26 – Away TOR – Home NJD BUF |
Los Angeles 3.26 – Away VGK – Home SJS EDM |
Colorado 3.26 – Away ARI STL – Home SJS |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 1.21 – Home PHI |
Arizona 1.99 – Away ANA – Home COL |
Calgary 2.36 – Home SEA PHI |
Montreal 2.52 – Away CAR FLA TBL |
Washington 2.66 – Away NYR NYI – Home NSH |
Wednesday, December 27th to Tuesday, January 2nd, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Dallas 4.68 – Away STL – Home CHI CHI MTL |
Los Angeles 4.31 – Away VGK – Home SJS EDM TOR |
Edmonton 4.25 – Away SJS LAK ANA – Home PHI |
Boston 4.20 – Away BUF DET CBJ – Home NJD |
Tampa Bay 4.15 – Away WPG – Home FLA NYR MTL |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 2.31 – Home PHI OTT |
St. Louis 2.84 – Away PIT – Home DAL COL |
New Jersey 2.96 – Away OTT BOS – Home CBJ |
Arizona 2.99 – Away ANA – Home COL FLA |
Vegas 3.04 – Away ANA SEA – Home LAK |
Thursday, December 28th to Wednesday, January 3rd, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.25 – Away SJS LAK ANA – Home PHI |
Washington 3.91 – Away NYI PIT – Home NSH NJD |
Dallas 3.78 – Home CHI CHI MTL |
Philadelphia 3.75 – Away VAN SEA CGY EDM |
Toronto 3.74 – Away CBJ LAK ANA – Home CAR |
Steer Clear |
St. Louis 1.90 – Away PIT – Home COL |
Vegas 1.99 – Away SEA – Home LAK |
Arizona 2.04 – Away ANA – Home FLA |
Calgary 2.06 – Away MIN – Home PHI |
Buffalo 2.10 – Away OTT – Home CBJ |
Wishing everyone out there a happy and safe Christmas season!
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.