Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to take a deep dive into goalies for category leagues. I'll be reviewing their true value so far this season using Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks and I'll compare this value to the value perceived through Yahoo's rankings.

If you want a refresher on these valuable stats, you can check out my preseason article on the matter here: https://dobberhockey.com/2023/09/17/geek-of-the-week-frozen-tools-new-quality-goalie-stats/

Top 20 Goalies in True Value

These True Value Rankings are simple. You want a consistent goalie that will provide you a Quality Week most weeks and not have Really Bad Weeks. Star Weeks will also boost their rankings as those can help you lock down those categories. Goalies that are more inconsistent who crush it some weeks, but kill you in the goalie categories in other weeks are not actually very valuable for category leagues. I'll review three goalies and compare how their perceived value differs from their True Value here.

Connor Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck is the 7^th ranked goalie on Yahoo right now in standard category leagues. Though his numbers haven't been flashy, he's arguably been the most valuable goalie to own in head-to-head category leagues. He's been consistent, rocking a quality week 63% of the time and a star week 36% of the time. He has only one shutout so far this season. With a strong defensive team in front of him, and his consistent play, he should get a few more. I would expect him to finish the season with four or five shutouts. Hellebuyck's consistency should continue and he should continue to provide top-5 value in categories leagues. If the current owner wants a flashier inconsistent goalie, I would target Helleybuck as a sneaky buy-low.

Logan Thompson and Adin Hill

Thompson was the poster boy of these True Value Goalie Rankings last year as he was always consistent, yet not putting up flashy numbers. Last year he finished with zero Really Bad Weeks and only one Really Bad Start all season. This year he has lost a bit of consistency, already having three Really Bad Starts, but is still among the top 5 in these True Value Rankings. Those Really Bad Starts haven't resulted in any Really Bad Weeks as he has been able to rebound each time. He has put up a Quality Week a whopping 80% of the time. This isn't new for him as he did this 89% of the time last year. Thompson is ranked way down at 34^th on Yahoo right now. The injury landscape in Vegas makes things a little cloudy, but even in a timeshare, Thompson can provide some great value on a strong Vegas team. I would be checking in on the price of Thompson and buying right now.

On the other side of things, after a stellar playoff run last year, Hill was given the "starting job" and he's been great. He is leading the league in save percentage at .933 and in Goals Against Average at 1.93. Injuries have limited his starts of late but Yahoo still ranks him as the 2^nd most valuable goalie so far. I would have to disagree. He is way down at rank 21 in the True Value Rankings. Even with his league-leading stats, he hasn't necessarily been consistent. In his nine active weeks, he's only provided a quality week in five of them and he has had a stinker of a Really Bad Week as well. Last season he had the exact same Quality Week percentage at 55%. He might just be an inconsistent goalie who can go on flashy runs. If you can time the run correctly, great, but that is hard to do. I would much prefer a more consistent goalie on my fantasy team. If you are a Hill owner, I would see if you can sell high (as the second-best goalie so far!).

Ilya Sorokin

Last year, Sorokin was my example of the overvalued flashy but inconsistent goalie. This year, he has turned into the opposite. He has only one Really Bad Start all season, resulting in zero Really Bad Weeks. He has had a Quality Week 73% of the time. His Quality Start % is lower at 57%, meaning that he is able to rebound any time he doesn't have a great start, resulting in a quality week when he has 2-3 starts in a week. He has just one Star Week so far, but he has shown an ability to pile up Star Weeks in the past. His cumulative numbers are slightly down this season, but he has been consistent and a top 5 goalie in categories leagues. He is ranked way down at 17^th in Yahoo due to his less-than-stellar cumulative stats. He is another great buy-low candidate based on this discrepancy.

Honourable Mentions

Perceived too high – Jeremy Swayman, Jonathan Quick, Connor Ingram, Charlie Lindgren

Perceived too low – Linus Ullmark, Igor Shesterkin, Joseph Woll, Joey Daccord

Hope you enjoyed. Follow me on X @fantasycheddar, where I will answer any questions you may have.