Ramblings: Christmas Gifts & Wishes for Each Team (Dec 25)
Brennan Des
2023-12-25
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! With no games scheduled on Christmas Eve, I thought I'd review each team's most valuable and most disappointing player so far this season. Those valuable players have been a gift to your fantasy roster, while those disappointing players have you begging Santa for a turnaround.
Anaheim Ducks
Gift: Mason McTavish
The 20-year-old forward possesses the best point-per-game rate in Anaheim this season, on pace for 66 in 82. He's been great overall, but it's worth noting that since tallying 21 points in his first 20 appearances, he's pointless in his last six. That includes four games without a point, followed by a seven-game absence due to injury, and now two more games without a point. He may need time to find his form again.
Wishing for More: Trevor Zegras
After scoring above a 65-point pace in each of the last two years, Zegras is pacing for just 19 points this season. Now, that number is skewed because he's missed 20 games due to injury this year, recently returning to the lineup this weekend. Zegras is a talented player who enjoys good deployment. He suffered from some bad luck over a small sample, but I expect him to have a strong second half.
Arizona Coyotes
Gift: Connor Ingram
If you tell me Connor Ingram was on your fantasy radar heading into this season, you're either a liar or a genius. I'm betting on the former but hoping for the latter. As a backup netminder, with limited NHL experience, on a team that wasn't highly regarded, Ingram probably didn't get drafted in your fantasy pool. For him to have a 12-7-0 record, 2.62 GAA and .916 save percentage right now – better numbers than Linus Ullmark – is nothing short of a Christmas miracle.
Wishing for More: Barrett Hayton
Hayton posted 18 points in his final 20 games last year, skating over 19 minutes a night and enjoying prominent power-play time. Fantasy managers expecting that momentum to carry into this year were left disappointed as Hayton posted just four points in 16 outings. Although his overall numbers don't look great, he seemed to be turning a corner as those four points came in his last five appearances. Unfortunately, he's been injured since mid-November and isn't expected back until early-February. I expect him to provide some sneaky value when he returns.
Boston Bruins
Gift: Jeremy Swayman
Among goalies with at least 10 starts, Swayman ranks third in both save percentage (.928) and GAA (2.25). He's outplayed counterpart Linus Ullmark so far, which could earn him more starts down the stretch.
Wishing for More: Jake DeBrusk
After posting a 64-point pace last year, DeBrusk is on track for just 29 this season. This drop in production is largely due to a drop in power-play opportunity. After enjoying a 53% share of Boston's power-play time last year, he's down to 32% this year.
Buffalo Sabres
Gift: JJ Peterka
The 21-year-old sophomore has been excellent this year. He took a few games to get going but has 23 points in his last 28 games, which translates to 67 points over 82 games. He's been trusted with a bigger role because of his strong play. After skating less than 14 minutes and seeing 27% of Buffalo's total power-play time last year, he's now up to over 16 minutes a night, with a 41% share of PP time.
Wishing for More: Dylan Cozens
After breaking out with 68 points last year, Cozens is scoring at an underwhelming 47-point pace this season. I'm slightly concerned because he hasn't been seeing as much power-play opportunity as he had been earlier in the campaign. However, current power-play configurations aren't set in stone as Buffalo has been struggling with the man advantage. It's worth noting that Cozens had to wear a face shield for a few games this year, so his vision, play and production were understandably affected during that stretch. Free from injury and blinders, I think we'll see more offense from Cozens in the second half.
Calgary Flames
Gift: Connor Zary
The 22-year-old rookie's 58-point pace leads all Flames at the Christmas break. Although Zary is seeing a prominent role with the man advantage, it hasn't helped his point total much. Calgary sits near the bottom of the league with an abysmal 11.8% success rate on the power play.
Wishing for More: Jonathan Huberdeau
The player with the 10th-highest cap hit in the league currently ranks 236th in points. After pacing for 118 points two seasons ago, Huberdeau is scoring at a 36-point pace. Calgary doesn't score a whole lot and Huberdeau's style doesn't seem like a great fit for the team's system. His confidence is clearly at an all-time low and I don't have a lot of faith in him turning things around this year.
Carolina Hurricanes
Gift: Seth Jarvis
After an underwhelming sophomore season that saw him tally 39 points, Jarvis is pacing for 58 points in year three. He's benefitted from an expanded role as his ice time is up from 16 minutes last year to 19 minutes this year, and his share of power-play time has increased from 40% to 60%. He's solidified himself in Carolina's top six and should continue producing at a strong rate in the second half.
Wishing for More: Brent Burns
After posting 61 points last year, Burns is pacing for just 34 this season. There isn't much in his underlying numbers to suggest a significant rebound is imminent. Given the fact that he's 38 years old, I'm inclined to believe that this season's struggles are the product of age-related decline. His 2.3 shots per game are lower than last year's average of 3.1. In addition, his share of the team's power-play is down from 58% to 45%.
Chicago Blackhawks
Gift: Connor Bedard
The lone bright spot in Chicago, Bedard's brilliance has been highlighted frequently this season. Rather than repeating those highlights, why don't we enjoy this highlight.
Wishing for More: Seth Jones
With Bedard joining the Blackhawks this year, there was hope Jones would be able to find more offense. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case as his current 33-point pace is even lower than last year's 42. Jones is currently injured but has just one power-play point through 27 appearances this season.
Colorado Avalanche
Gift: Valeri Nichushkin
After posting a 73-point pace last year, Nichushkin is currently on pace for 85. He started out relatively slow, posting seven points in 11 games. During that stretch, he skated 17:22 a night and saw a measly 24% share of Colorado's total power-play time. Since then, he has 26 points in 21 games. He's seeing a whopping 23:47 of ice time and a 81% share of PP time.
Wishing for More: Alexandar Georgiev
From a .919 save percentage last season to a .900 this year, Georgiev leaves us wanting more. It's worth noting that his numbers are somewhat inflated by a strong start to the season. If you remove his first four games (from October 11th to 19th), he has a 3.29 GAA and .889 save percentage in his last 23 games. Sure, Colorado is a good team, but I think that's a large enough sample of struggle to be concerned.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Gift: Zach Werenski
With 25 points in 33 games, Werenski leads the Blue Jackets in scoring. According to my calculations, he and Vince Dunn in Seattle are the only defenseman that can claim that feat right now. Among blueliners, Werenski ranks 11th in total points, fifth in shots, and third in even-strength points. We can only imagine the value he'd provide if Columbus was able to roll out a competent power play.
Wishing for More: Patrik Laine
The 25-year-old forward scored at roughly a point-per-game pace over his last two seasons with Columbus but has seen his production drop to half that rate this year. Laine is averaging roughly 15 minutes of action per game, down from the 19 minutes he saw in previous seasons. I'm wary because current coach Pascal Vincent doesn't seem like the type to keep throwing a high volume of minutes at Laine even while he's struggling, so he probably won't be able to play his way out of this. With other players stepping up in Columbus, Laine might not get enough opportunity to produce at a high rate during the second half. He's expected to miss five more weeks of action due to a fractured clavicle.
Dallas Stars
Gift: Matt Duchene
After posting a 65-point pace with Nashville last year, Duchene is on pace for 77 this year – his first with Dallas. Most of his points have come at even-strength, where he skates beside Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment. He only plays a minor role with the man advantage, seeing 43% of the team's total power-play time. Although I think he can have a strong year, I don't expect him to maintain this pace all season, so sell high if you can.
Wishing for More: Jake Oettinger
Oettinger hasn't been horrendous this year, but his .901 save percentage and 2.93 GAA represent significant declines from the .919 save percentage and 2.35 GAA he posted last year. The Stars have played well defensively this season, which makes me optimistic that Oettinger will bounce back eventually. He's a talented goalie, so it'll be easier for him to escape this funk, especially because the team in front of him is playing well. He's currently out week-to-week with an injury, and I don't think you'll have a better opportunity than now to buy low.
Detroit Red Wings
Gift: Shayne Gostisbehere
Heading into the holiday season, Gostisbehere sits 11th in points among defensemen as he's posted 25 through 33 games. Roughly half of those points have come with the man advantage as he's enjoyed a 64% share of Detroit's total power-play time.
Wishing for More: Ville Husso
Although he's currently injured, his play so far this year leaves a lot to be desired. Despite a winning 9-5-2 record, he holds a hideous 3.53 GAA and .893 save percentage. He could lose the starting gig to Alex Lyon, who has thoroughly outplayed him so far and is expected to return from injury soon.
Edmonton Oilers
Gift: Evan Bouchard
Among all defenseman, Bouchard's improvement has been most astronomical. From a 40-point pace last year to an 85-point pace this year. Astronomical. This step forward was made possible by an expanded power-play role. After seeing 46% of Edmonton's PP time last year and posting 0.16 power-play points per game, he's seeing 76% this year, tallying 0.52 PPP/game.
Wishing for More: Stuart Skinner
Through 50 appearances last year, Skinner posted an impressive .914 save percentage. Through 23 games this year, he holds a save percentage of .886. Although his overall numbers are bad, he's been better since Kris Knoblauch took over as head coach. In 14 games under Knoblauch, Skinner is 10-4-0 with a 2.73 GAA and .901 save percentage.
Florida Panthers
Gift: Sam Reinhart
After posting 31 goals and 67 points last year, Reinhart is currently on pace for 47 goals and 99 points. Even if this lofty pace isn't actualized, there's enough to like about Reinhart's deployment that I wouldn't be rushing to sell high. If you can, then great. But if you can't, you should still have a great asset for the rest of the year.
Wishing for More: Brandon Montour
The 29-year-old defenseman had a late start to the campaign due to offseason shoulder surgery. Although he has just six points in 17 games since returning to the lineup, four of those points came in his last four games. Players often need some time to return to speed after a long absence, so don't be surprised if Montour is turning the corner now, finally returning to the version of himself that posted 73 points last year.
Los Angeles Kings
Gift: Cam Talbot
After posting a 2.93 GAA and .898 save percentage through 36 games with Ottawa last year, expectations weren't high for Talbot this season. However, behind an incredibly strong Kings' team, Talbot has been one of the league's best goalies this season, sporting a 14-6-2 record, 2.06 GAA and .925 save percentage.
Wishing for More: Pierre-Luc Dubois
13 points in 30 games is far below the level of offense you'd expect from a player who just signed an eight-year deal at an $8.5-million cap hit. Still, I find it hard to be too critical of Dubois when his deployment hasn't been ideal. His third line, second power-play unit role isn't conducive to offense. With the Kings off to a strong start this year, there hasn't been much reason to shake up the lines and move Dubois up. If they keep playing well, he may be stuck in this suboptimal role.
Minnesota Wild
Gift: Brock Faber
The 21-year-old rookie's strong play has been observable all season, but it's become even more obvious since John Hynes took over as head coach. Under Hynes, Faber has eight points in 13 games. The 27 minutes of action he's seeing represents the second-highest average ice time in the league during this stretch.
Wishing for More: Jared Spurgeon
Spurgeon's place here isn't so much an indictment of his play, as it is of the circumstances he's faced this year. Injuries have limited Minnesota's captain to just 13 games this season. Although he saw prominent power-play time while in the lineup, his numerous absences have opened the door for Brock Faber. Prominent power-play opportunity may no longer be available to Spurgeon once he returns from this injury.
Montreal Canadiens
Gift: Mike Matheson
As one of the most experienced members of Montreal's blueline, Matheson has been trusted with a high volume of opportunity. That opportunity has translated to high levels of production. His 25:20 of ice time represents the sixth-highest average in the league this year. Among defenseman, he ranks sixth in power-play points, eighth in shots, and 13th in total points.
Wishing for More: Cole Caufield
Heading into this season, Caufield was considered one of the league's most promising goal-scoring threats. Between February 2022 – when Martin St. Louis took over as head coach – and the end of last season, Caufield racked up 48 goals over 83 games. With that in mind, it's a little disappointing to see him with just eight goals after 33 appearances this year. The numbers suggest he's suffered from a bit of bad luck, so I'm expecting him to light the lamp more often in the second half. With young Juraj Slafkovsky developing into a strong forechecker, complementing the elite IQ of Nick Suzuki and the excellent shot of Caufield, Montreal's top line is emerging as a force to be reckoned with.
Nashville Predators
Gift: Filip Forsberg
Last season, Forsberg posted a 69-point pace. He was limited to just 50 games, as a concussion kept him sidelined down the stretch. He's been outstanding this year, scoring at a 92-point pace and racking up more shots than he ever has before.
Wishing for More: Tyson Barrie
After tallying 55 points last season, it's disappointing to see Barrie score at a 30-point pace this year. The reality is, he won't see the offensive opportunity needed to put up big numbers while in Nashville, where Roman Josi is the undisputed top dog.
New Jersey Devils
Gift: Jesper Bratt
After posting a 73-point pace last year, Bratt is pacing for a remarkable 97 points this season. This new offense is partially fuelled by career-best output with the man advantage. Keep in mind, his power-play production is inflated by a hot start that saw him rack up 13 points with the man advantage in his first nine games. That leaves him with just five power-play points in 23 games since. After posting 0.27 power-play points per game last year, he has 0.56 this year. There are some players in the league who can maintain such a rate all season, but New Jersey's power play hasn't been consistently good enough for me to believe Bratt is one of those players – not yet at least.
Wishing for More: Vitek Vanecek
From a 2.45 GAA and .911 save percentage last year, to a 3.28 GAA and .884 save percentage this year. Vanecek's only saving grace is that his counterpart Akira Schmid is also struggling, buying him more time to find his game.
New York Islanders
Gift: Noah Dobson
A 52-point pace last year to an 84-point pace this year. Dobson has been an incredible gift to fantasy managers. A large part of his ascension is due to improved production with the man advantage. He has 0.39 power-play points per game after tallying 0.23 last year. New York's power-play is clicking at 25% – a big jump from last season's abysmal 16% success rate.
Wishing for More: Anders Lee
In the past seven seasons, Lee hasn't fallen below a 50-point pace, sometimes even flirting with the 60-point mark. This year, he's pacing for just 37 points. He's suffered from a reduced role as his ice time is down from 17 minutes to 15, and his share of power-play time has fallen from 66% to 41%. Despite seeing less opportunity, he's been pretty productive lately, tallying 13 points in his last 18 appearances. He benefits from skating beside Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal at even strength. High quality linemates could help offset the reduced role he's facing.
New York Rangers
Gift: Jonathan Quick
After registering a 3.41 GAA and .882 save percentage through 41 games last year, Quick has been a revelation this season, sporting a 2.27 GAA and .921 save percentage through 12 appearances. Sticking with the theme of Christmas gifts, Quick has been like a box of chocolates, in the sense that you never know which one you're gonna get. His save percentage has been .900 or lower in half of his games, and .947 or greater in the other half.
Wishing for More: Kaapo Kakko
Many were expecting the 22-year-old forward to take a step forward this year, pencilled in for New York's top line beside Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Unfortunately, he didn't capitalize on that opportunity and eventually fell down the lineup. He posted just three points in 20 appearances before suffering an injury that's kept him out for the past month.
Ottawa Senators
Gift: Jakob Chychrun
Heading into this season, we knew one of three players could be Ottawa's top fantasy defenseman. I don't think many expected Chychrun to be that guy at this point in the year, but here we are. Thomas Chabot has been injured for most of the campaign and Jake Sanderson hasn't been as productive as most expected. Not only does Chychrun lead Ottawa's blueline in scoring, but his 0.83 points per game rank 11th among all blueliners.
Wishing for More: Joonas Korpisalo
6-11-0, with a .891 save percentage and 3.62 GAA. That's not what the Senators had in mind when they signed Korpisalo to a five-year deal this summer. Let's see if new coach Jacques Martin can get Ottawa to play better defense. That seems like the only way to save Korpisalo's stats because he hasn't displayed the individual talent needed to steal games by himself.
Philadelphia Flyers
Gift: Travis Sanheim
Through 81 games last year, Sanheim posted 23 points. Through just 32 this year, he already has 24. It's slightly concerning that he's relinquished power-play time to Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen lately. However, it's not the end of the world considering only four of his 24 points have come with the man advantage.
Wishing for More: Morgan Frost
Frost closed out last season with an impressive 17 points in 20 games, raising his fantasy stock as managers thought he'd carry that momentum into a new campaign. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case so far as Frost has just 10 points through 25 appearances, missing numerous games as a healthy scratch. Coach John Tortorella said Frost has been improving lately. Hopefully that leads to better deployment on a more consistent basis going forward.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Gift: Bryan Rust
From a 47-point pace last year to a 75-point pace this year, it's been an incredible bounce-back campaign for Rust. Unfortunately, an upper-body injury landed him on long-term injured reserve, and he's now out on a week-to-week basis. Recently, Rickard Rakell has been filling Rust's spot beside superstars Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel.
Wishing for More: Erik Karlsson
After leading all defensemen with 101 points last year, Karlsson currently sits 20th in scoring among blueliners, pacing for 56 points. To some extent, Karlsson's point totals have been limited by the Penguins' struggles with the man advantage. Despite the team's star-studded top unit, Pittsburgh currently sits 27th in the league with a 13.7% power-play success rate. Karlsson is averaging 0.22 power-play points per game after posting 0.33 last year – on a much less talented team in San Jose. I know 32 games seems like a large sample, but I could see this being a situation where Karlsson just needs time to adapt to playing with so many stars. If you have the opportunity to buy low right now, I suggest you take it.
San Jose Sharks
Gift: Mikael Granlund
A player who started the season on the waiver wire in almost every fantasy league is the same player that leads his team in points per game as we enter the holiday break. Over the past 30 days, Granlund has 19 points through 14 appearances. Only five players in the league have more points during that span.
Wishing for More: Logan Couture
It's hard to be too critical of anyone in San Jose as expectations weren't particularly high for the team this year. After posting 67 points last year, Logan Couture was one of the few Sharks expected to have fantasy value this season. Sadly, he hasn't played yet this year due to an injury that wasn't initially expected to keep him out this long. Fortunately, he's been practicing recently and could make his debut soon.
Seattle Kraken
Gift: Joey Daccord
Although this is Daccord's fifth season in the NHL, it's the first time he's seeing a high volume of action. The 27-year-old netminder has been quietly solid this year, sporting a 2.53 GAA and .913 save percentage. He benefits from playing behind a good defensive team in Seattle, but probably won't rack up a lot of wins as the Kraken struggle to score.
Wishing for More: Jared McCann
From 40 goals and 70 points last year, to a 33-goal/51-point pace this year. McCann has spent most of his minutes this season beside Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle – the same duo he thrived beside last year. The advanced stats suggest this trio has been playing well again this year, but a lack of actual production may be due to some bad luck. Newly acquired Tomas Tatar has taken McCann's spot on that line, dropping McCann to a unit with Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev. That linemate downgrade may delay improvement in McCann's production.
St. Louis Blues
Gift: Robert Thomas
Thomas leads the Blues in scoring with 37 points through 33 games this year. That point total ranks 20th in the league. He's pacing for 92 points this season after posting a 73-point pace last year. That's one of many signs that the 24-year-old is taking his game to a new level. Another sign is the praise he's received from interim head coach Drew Bannister.
Wishing for More: Jordan Kyrou
This answer would have been a lot more convincing 10 days ago, when Kyrou had 17 points in 28 games, a 50-point pace. However, it seems like Santa granted this wish early as Kyrou has eight points in his last five outings, with a whopping 26 shots during that stretch.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Gift: Nikita Kucherov
As we enter the holiday break, Kucherov leads the league in points and power-play points, sitting second in shots and third in goals. Connor McDavid may have been the consensus first overall pick in fantasy leagues, but Kucherov has been more worthy of that title so far.
Wishing for More: Mikhail Sergachev
Last year, Sergachev racked up a career-high 64 points. 27 of those points came with the man advantage as he enjoyed long stretches on Tampa's top power-play unit. Although it seemed like a changing of the guard was underway, with Victor Hedman passing the torch, that hasn't been the case so far this year. Hedman is the one seeing prominent power-play time, with Sergachev stuck in a secondary role. While Hedman is thriving, Sergachev's production is much lower than last year's – in large part due to this reduced role with the man advantage.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Gift: William Nylander
Nylander has registered a point in 28 of the 31 games he's played this year. Three players have more points than him this season, but none of them can claim the same level of consistency. After that 17-game point streak to open the year, he's now riding an 11-game streak.
Wishing for More: Ilya Samsonov
After posting a 2.33 GAA and .919 save percentage last year, Samsonov currently holds a 3.79 GAA and .871 save percentage. Although he's certainly struggled, the team in front of him isn't playing as well defensively as it did last year.
Vancouver Canucks
Gift: Quinn Hughes
As we enter the holiday break, no defenseman has more goals, assists, points, or power-play points than Quinn Hughes, He also leads the league with an incredible plus-28 rating. Hughes was already so good last year; I don't think anyone expected him to take such a massive step forward this season. After posting an 80-point pace last year, the 24-year-old Canuck captain is currently on pace for 103.
Wishing for More: Andrei Kuzmenko
Kuzmenko had an incredible rookie campaign last year, posting 38 goals and 74 points. His goals came with a suspiciously high shooting percentage of 26.8, so not many expected him to repeat the feat this year. Still, his current 21-goal, 52-point pace represents a pretty drastic drop from last year. He's been a healthy scratch a few times this season and will need to improve his play away from the puck if he's wants to gain favour with coach Rick Tocchet.
Vegas Golden Knights
Gift: William Karlsson
After a couple of underwhelming seasons in which he paced for 53 and 43, points, Karlsson is finally putting up a strong level of offense, on pace for 70 points. A lot of this success has been fuelled by more opportunity and production on the power play.
Wishing for More: Alex Pietrangelo
Many had high hopes for Pietrangelo after he scored at a 61-point pace last year. He's fallen short of expectations, currently pacing for 38 points. His underwhelming offense was excused early in the year as he'd lost his power-play spot to Shea Theodore. However, with Theodore suffering an injury in late-November, Pietrangelo has been quarterbacking Vegas' top unit this past month. He has just five points through 15 games in this expanded role.
Washington Capitals
Gift: Charlie Lindgren
Coming into the season, Lindgren wasn't expected to see much action. He was the clear-cut backup to number-one netminder Darcy Kuemper. As we enter the Christmas break, not only has Lindgren outplayed Kuemper, but he's also outplayed most goalies in the league. Among goaltenders with at least 10 appearances, Lindgren ranks second in save percentage (.928) and fifth in GAA (2.29).
Wishing for More: Alex Ovechkin
Ovechkin's goal-scoring struggles this season have been well documented. With six goals in 31 games, the 38-year-old winger is on pace for a career-worst 15-goal campaign. Advanced stats suggest he's still creating a decent amount of offense, and while he may be suffering from age-related regression, he's also been a victim of bad luck. I don't think bad luck can hinder him forever, so I expect more goals going forward.
Winnipeg Jets
Gift: Mark Scheifele
After posting a 69-point pace last season, Scheifele has shattered expectations this year, currently pacing for 92 points. Winnipeg's top line has been incredible in December. Through 10 games this month, Scheifele has 12 points, Gabriel Vilardi has 14, and Nikolaj Ehlers has 15.
Wishing for More: Alex Iafallo
Winnipeg has been one of the best teams this month, sporting a sparkling record of 8-1-1. This run was made possible by strong play from their top players, so it's hard to find a fantasy-relevant Jet that's underperformed this season. Iafallo might not be relevant in all leagues, but it's disappointing to see him score at a 38-point pace despite skating in the top six and seeing a lot of power-play time early on.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!