Ilya Samsonov shut out the Nashville Predators on December 9.  Why does this make the news today? Because there's at least a shred of evidence that he is an NHL-caliber goalie. However, since that effort he's been caught in a nightmare – both for himself and for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Samsonov, in his last four starts has surrendered 21 goals and has a save percentage of 0.798.  In 12 December games, the Leafs have averaged four goals and yet have won fewer than half (5-3-4).  Martin Jones, thought to be trade bait before the season started back in October, has emerged from the AHL to become the #1 option. The only option, unless they find a trading partner, and soon!  For now Toronto is in a playoff position – and as the Florida Panthers proved again last year, that's all that matters until mid-April.

Speaking of those Panthers, they now have consecutive wins against Vegas, Tampa, and the Rangers. Carter Verhaeghe ($6300) scored two of the game-winners, Sam Reinhart ($7300) had five goals, and Aleksander Barkov ($7500) eight assists in these wins. 

Most casual hockey fans understand when a regular season NHL game has playoff implications, but for those of us who wager on single-game results, these aren't usually the best bets. Tight checking, lower scores, maybe a goalkeeper to favor, but you're more likely to see that wide-open style when the individual stats aren't suddenly secondary. Tonight, it's the majority of contests that have been circled as the most important matchup for the rest of the year (okay, I mean 2023). But Rangers at Lightning, Devils at Bruins, and Blues at Penguins are all "take the under" opportunities. I'd have included the Oilers at Kings in here too, but one of those squads tends to play as though outscoring their errors… yeah. It's certainly a statement game for these teams, but I'll pass on their lineups. 

Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers – An overachieving young team whose second line – Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, and Rafael Harvey-Pinard are all on injured reserve, against a Florida team truly breaking out into the offensive monster that they've hidden too well. Yes, I'll be rostering (finally) Matthew Tkachuk ($6400). When he starts to find the net and improves his 4.6% shooting percentage, watch out. Their power-play quarterback – who? Brandon Montour ($5000) thus far has only three points on the man advantage, and Aaron Ekblad ($3700) has disappeared altogether from offensive statistics. This leaves Gustav Forsling ($3800) or even Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3900).  If you're truly on board with the Cats putting up five goals, it's still a good play only if you guess the D-man correctly.  Pass. Evan Rodrigues ($4300) is a better option.

Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals – I've put out Alexander Ovechkin ($6500) three times already this season, and have been burned – scorched – each week, as his stats for my wagers are no goals and one assist. I'd like to be loyal, but no –  what can I say?  I still feel that Ovi gets on the board against the rookie Yaroslav Askarov ($7300). John Carlson ($5900) feeds him for power play shots, and Anthony Mantha ($3400) is a less expensive option. But maybe not enough, as the Preds ride Filip Forsberg ($7400), Gustav Nyquist (3900), Ryan O'Reilly ($5500) and Roman Josi ($7000 – highest priced defenseman on the DraftKings site). I'll put a few bucks on Nashville to win for Askarov's season debut. (Check GoaliePost for the latest starting goalie information.)

Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs – Until the Leafs stop the bleeding, they're the "over" play every game. Especially this one. Sebastian Aho ($7200) has four points in successive contests, and the Canes have scored five times in each of those. Brent Burns ($4200) has figured onto those scoresheets five times as well.  For value, consider Jack Drury ($2600), who has nine points in December and nine shots on goal in his last three games.  Wait – don't discount Toronto's firepower either / remember the four-goal average! The "big four" of Auston Matthews ($10,000), William Nylander ($8500), Mitchell Marner ($6800), and John Tavares ($6900) have all lived up to their billing, though they cost the most too. Consider Jake McCabe ($3300) with nine points and 16 blocks in December. 

My lineup:

No, the players I've highlighted aren't going to fit. I tried, and I was only $16,000 over the DraftKings limit – not close.  So looking for diamonds in the hay, I've settled upon:

Centers – Aho, Barkov

Wings – M. Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Nyquist

Defensemen – Carlson, McCabe

Goalie – Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8000), with one of those playoff-type 2-1 scores.

Utility skater – Drury

Last week, I hit on offensive stats with 15 points, and watched my goaltender (Jordan Binnington) give up five goals to the Blackhawks.  Even winning the game, he was worth no points – not recoverable with a DFS lineup. 

Happy New Year!  Please, please be careful driving tomorrow. Somewhere, there's a trauma surgeon on call who just wants to sleep!