Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. With the NHL on their break, and the World Junior tournament getting underway, I wanted to look ahead to the unofficial second half of the season and things I’m keeping an eye on. It could be teams, players, situations, call-ups, or whatever else comes to mind. (At time of writing):

Montreal’s Top-Six Forwards

The high-ankle sprain that Alex Newhook suffered is going to keep him out until after the All-Star break, in all likelihood. Add that to Kirby Dach being done for the year and Rafael Harvey-Pinard also out of the lineup, and the team basically has their entire second line missing. It has been great to see the top line thriving with Juraj Slafkovsky there, but this has been a one-line team for a couple years now. That is largely due to injury, but not completely.

Harvey-Pinard is out until sometime in January, so he’ll be back well before Newhook. With that said, when they are both in the lineup, I’m really interested to see what their top-6 forward mix looks like. If the new top line keeps playing as they are, the coaches would be hard-pressed to break them up, but there is also the consideration of a second scoring line here. I would love to see a Slaf-Suzuki-RHP top line with Newhook and Cole Caufield down on the second line. It probably won’t happen, but I am much less opposed to breaking up Caufield and Suzuki than I was three months ago. When Newhook and RHP are healthy, and once the trade deadline passes and some of the veterans are on new teams, it will be interesting to see what their top-6 forward group looks like. There could be some sneaky fantasy value down the stretch as the younger players get more ice time in March. (dec26)

2. Buffalo’s Blue Line

Now that Buffalo’s forward group is pretty much healthy, the focus now turns to the defencemen. Henri Jokiharju has quietly had an excellent season, and Owen Power has been better of late, but this is a group that has really struggled this season. That includes Rasmus Dahlin. His point and peripheral production has been great for fantasy, there’s no doubt about that, but Evolving Hockey has his defensive rating taking a huge dive from his breakout 2022-23 season. If the number-one defenceman on the team is putting up poor defensive numbers, it’s something that really hurts the goaltenders as they face higher-quality shots than the netminders in, say, Boston, Vancouver, or Dallas would face. The goaltenders need to be better, but so does over half their blue line, and whether they can improve will go a long way to helping Devon Levi regain (or just attain) fantasy value, not to mention push for a playoff spot.

One note on Power: his defence has also fallen off but he has genuinely been better of late. Off the top of my head, I think he’s improved his Wins Above Replacement four-fold over the last couple of weeks, and while he can’t keep doing that, just improving over his first 25 games will be key for the team (and his fantasy value). (dec26)

3. Thomas Harley’s Usage

Keeping an eye on defencemen excelling with lower usage is something that has helped me identify rearguards that can break out in seasons to come. Over the last decade, guys like Torey Krug, Noah Dobson, and Rasmus Andersson all had good seasons with low usage and then great fantasy seasons with more usage in the years to come (Dobson being the most recent example). Harley stuck out to me during last year’s playoffs and he’s been great again this year: he's among the goal-scoring leaders for defencemen while averaging around 1.8 blocks per game. He was down all the way to 16:25 per game in November of this season but has seen a lot of games over the 20-minute mark in December.

His shooting percentage is unsustainable, but AllThreeZones has his zone entry/exit numbers as great-to-elite so far this season. Harley helps the team in transition but still plays a high-risk game that can lead to a disproportionate number of chances against. How he finds the balance to tighten his game up will be interesting to see. He won’t be the top guy as long as Miro Heiskanen is around, but it's worth following how he handles heavier minutes. (dec26)

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4. With no games scheduled on Christmas Eve, I thought I’d review each team’s most valuable and most disappointing player so far this season. Those valuable players have been a gift to your fantasy roster, while those disappointing players have you begging Santa for a turnaround. (At time of writing):

Anaheim Ducks

Gift: Mason McTavish

The 20-year-old forward possesses the best point-per-game rate in Anaheim this season, on pace for 66 in 82. He’s been great overall, but it’s worth noting that since tallying 21 points in his first 20 appearances, he’s pointless in his last six. That includes four games without a point, followed by a seven-game absence due to injury, and now two more games without a point. He may need time to find his form again.  

Wishing for More: Trevor Zegras

After scoring above a 65-point pace in each of the last two years, Zegras is pacing for just 19 points this season. Now, that number is skewed because he’s missed 20 games due to injury this year, recently returning to the lineup this weekend. Zegras is a talented player who enjoys good deployment. He suffered from some bad luck over a small sample, but I expect him to have a strong second half. (dec25)

5. Calgary Flames

Gift: Connor Zary

The 22-year-old rookie’s 58-point pace leads all Flames at the Christmas break. Although Zary is seeing a prominent role with the man advantage, it hasn’t helped his point total much. Calgary sits near the bottom of the league with an abysmal 11.8% success rate on the power play.

Wishing for More: Jonathan Huberdeau

The player with the 10^th-highest cap hit in the league currently ranks 236^th in points. After pacing for 118 points two seasons ago, Huberdeau is scoring at a 36-point pace. Calgary doesn’t score a whole lot and Huberdeau’s style doesn’t seem like a great fit for the team’s system. His confidence is clearly at an all-time low and I don’t have a lot of faith in him turning things around this year. (dec25)

6. Tampa Bay Lightning 

Gift: Nikita Kucherov

As we enter the holiday break, Kucherov leads the league in points and power-play points, sitting second in shots and third in goals. Connor McDavid may have been the consensus first overall pick in fantasy leagues, but Kucherov has been more worthy of that title so far.

Wishing for More: Mikhail Sergachev

Last year, Sergachev racked up a career-high 64 points. 27 of those points came with the man advantage as he enjoyed long stretches on Tampa’s top power-play unit. Although it seemed like a changing of the guard was underway, with Victor Hedman passing the torch, that hasn’t been the case so far this year. Hedman is the one seeing prominent power-play time, with Sergachev stuck in a secondary role. While Hedman is thriving, Sergachev’s production is much lower than last year’s – in large part due to this reduced role with the man advantage. (dec25)

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7. Nico Daws‘ first game since the 2021-22 season was a success. On Friday, Daws made 25 saves in the Devils’ 6-2 win over Ottawa. Daws was recalled earlier this week when Akira Schmid was sent to the AHL. Although Vitek Vanecek has played a little better recently, Daws could easily push him for starts in Jersey with some strong play. Feel free to take a flier on him if you need a goalie next week.

By the way, Daws had played only three AHL games this season because he underwent hip surgery in June and needed six months to recover. He posted a solid 2.39 GAA and .929 SV% over those three games. (dec30)

8. I could have added Johnny Gaudreau on one of my teams and didn’t. Why? Because I’ve already got him on two other teams. If you have multiple teams, do you avoid adding a player because you already have enough stock in that player in your portfolio? I know that it would be ideal to have Connor McDavid on every one of your teams, but a common piece of advice from investment advisors is to never put all of your eggs in one basket. I think the same goes for fantasy hockey to some extent.

Gaudreau scored the overtime winner and added two assists in the Blue Jackets’ 6-5 win over Toronto.

If you’ve cast Johnny Hockey to your league’s waiver wire (down to 54% in Yahoo and 79% in Fantrax at time of writing), you should know that he has found his way back onto the scoresheet with nine points in his last eight games. With all the injuries in Columbus, the Russian line (Dmitri Voronkov – Kirill Marchenko – Yegor Chinakhov) might be considered the new first line. So Gaudreau’s line now consists of Adam Fantilli and Justin Danforth. We know that Fantilli has promise, and he has delivered recently with seven points in his last seven games. 

Not sure you needed me to tell you that, but just so we’re clear. Gaudreau isn't going to put up the kind of numbers in Columbus that he did in Calgary, but he has enough upside to be rostered in far more leagues than he is. (dec30)

9. According to Capitals coach Spencer Carbery, Charlie Lindgren will be out for the “foreseeable future” after leaving Friday’s game in the first period with an upper-body injury. Lindgren has been one of the better waiver-wire pickups in net this season, pushing Darcy Kuemper for starts. Carbery used the same words to describe Martin Fehervary. He doesn’t score that often, but Fehervary is a great category filler for hits and blocked shots. (dec30)

10. It’s taken a bit of time, but Jonathan Drouin‘s career might be rebounding in Colorado. With an assist on Friday, Drouin now has eight points in eight games. Prior to that, Drouin had registered just eight points in his first 26 games with the Avalanche. Perhaps due to injuries, Drouin has also been receiving time on the first-unit power play for over a month. He’s rostered in only 5 percent of Yahoo leagues and 34 percent of Fantrax leagues if you feel inclined to add him. (dec30)

11. Joey Daccord should be on your safe starter list. He has picked up quality starts in seven of his last eight games with wins in five of them. Over that span (since taking over for the injured Philipp Grubauer), Daccord has a sparkling 1.61 GAA and .946 SV%. He’s available in just over half of both Yahoo and Fantrax leagues. I added him on one team where I went total Zero G and finally got around to starting him today against a Flyers team playing the second of back-to-backs on the road. I think he has a legit shot at keeping the Kraken starting job even when Grubauer returns. (dec30)

12. Speaking of Zero G, Connor Ingram posted another shutout on Friday. He is now the league’s co-leader in shutouts (with Tristan Jarry) with four clean sheets. Only five goalies have more quality starts than Ingram (14). Every season, at least one goalie appears out of nowhere to carry fantasy teams, and this season’s version has been Ingram. It’s just a matter of being in the right place at the right time when adding these goalies, and not thinking that they won’t help your team if they’re not name brand or don’t play for what is believed to be a strong team. By the way, Arizona currently holds a wild card spot in the Western Conference. (dec30)

13. Kris Letang‘s game last Wednesday was really something. Six assists in a game by a defenseman? Hadn’t been done since 1986. Letang has really caught fire recently. Just like Elan’s long-time keeper has been Karlsson, mine has been Letang through good times and bad. I have to give Letang props whenever I can.

We’ve mentioned on here that Letang has lost power-play time with the offseason addition of Erik Karlsson, and that has affected his power-play production (still just 2 PPP at time of writing) and his overall scoring. His shot total has also suffered, dipping below 2.0 SOG/GP for the first time since his sophomore season of 2008-09. Letang was only receiving 33% of the Penguins’ available power-play minutes, and there’s a big gap talent-wise between the Pens’ first and second units.

Letang’s recent scoring spree shows that he’s still capable of putting up big numbers, so I’m not ready to recommend dropping him. He had only one multiple-point game prior to the recent run, so getting to two points in a game – let alone six – will be enough of a challenge. (dec29)

14. Zach Werenski is listed as week-to-week after colliding with Ondrej Palat during Wednesday’s game. This is another blow to the Blue Jackets, as Werenski was leading the team in scoring at time of writing. With Werenski out of the lineup, expect Ivan Provorov to take over the first-unit power-play minutes. Provorov logged 61% of the Jackets’ available power-play minutes in that Wednesday outing, even though his power-play minutes are usually below 50%. However, the Blue Jackets were at the bottom-third of the league in power-play effectiveness (14.9%), so temper your expectations. (dec29)

15. Goal scorers can be hot and cold. Josh Anderson was held without a goal in his first 24 games of the season. Yet with another goal on Thursday, Anderson had five goals in his six games entering Saturday action. Anderson is still catching up a bit from his early-season dry spell, so he is a possible pickup in deeper leagues. (dec29)

16. If Seth Jones misses each game of the Blackhawks' current road trip, he’ll be out until January 7^th at the earliest. Kevin Korchinski may carry some fantasy value as he’s back on the top PP unit since he returned, but let’s be honest, Chicago’s power play has not been good this year with Jones or without. Power play time is still power play time, though. (dec28)

17. Filip Zadina on the Sharks' top line. That is where he needs to be if he’s going to thrive on this team because there’s just not enough talent – anywhere near enough talent – for him to find success (fantasy or otherwise) on the third and fourth lines. (dec28)

18. Rick Roos is always taking questions for his monthly mailbag column. He does the most in-depth dives you are going to get for an answer, so take advantage. There are two ways to send in questions (1) private messaging "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.

19. I took a few reader questions, and while I may give shorter answers than Rick, I like to think they’re still the right answers.

@WallyWest1978 asked: Points only keeper. Can only keep 1 of the following 3: Hischier, Fantilli or Byfield. Which do you keep?

We’re not starting it off easy eh?

Dobber’s Guide from this summer has them listed in terms of upside as:
Adam Fantilli, Quinton Byfield, Nico Hischier

However, sorting them by their three-year-peak (3YP – Reasonably expected output over their three peak NHL seasons), we get this:
Nico Hischier, Quinton Byfield, Adam Fantilli

All that to say, is that before the season, Fantilli was viewed to have the highest ceiling, while Hischier had the highest floor. Since then, Byfield has put up 23 points in 29 games, Fantilli has 19 in 34, and Hischier has 15 in 21. Keep in mind, Fantilli is still in his rookie season, and Byfield is still only 21 himself, while Nico is about to turn 25.

The here and the now certainly matter, but what we have seen from Byfield this year with the overall production and the flashes of the elite player he can be, I think he is the best combination of production now, ultimate high floor, and possible superstar production as a ceiling. It’s tough to only be able to keep one, but Byfield is my pick of this litter. (dec27)

20. Reader Jeff asked: I’m running Devon Levi as one of my three goalies right now, but Jonathan Quick, Jacob Markstrom, and Pyotr Kochetkov are all available to be added. Which is the best option for the rest of the season for a league with W, GAA, Sv%, and SO?

I love Devon Levi, but he’s too young and Buffalo’s team defence isn’t organized enough in front of him to be able to keep him at the level he would need to be to be considered the best option here. With the stats you have listed, and assuming it’s a H2H league and not Roto, the average stats are more important than the volume ones. Quick has been fantastic all season, Kochetkov has been hot of late when given the reins, and Markstrom is the only volume starter of the group.

The first question you need to ask with these categories is whether you need a third goalie at all. With two good goalies you should be able to do well in the average categories, and hopefully still keep pace with wins and shutouts. If you need to make the swap to add a third goalie, and volume is a must, then it has to be Markstrom despite the iffy average stats as a result of the volume he is guaranteed versus the other two. If you don’t necessarily need volume, I think I would run with Kochetkov for now, understanding that he may end up back in the AHL at some point if both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta make their way back. His peripheral numbers in addition to the higher volume than Quick makes him more valuable to you moving forward.

There is a situation where Quick would be the play though, and that’s if moves are limited, and you don’t want to have to make another goalie swap later in the season. There’s less risk with him. (dec27)

21. And finally,I’m going to keep tracking Jakub Vrana for you whether you like it or not. At time of writing, he had two goals and two assists in his first four AHL games. He’s keeping the door open to be promoted back to the NHL level this season. (dec27)

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Have a good week, folks!

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