Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Rick)

I'm in a ten team, 25 player rosters (+3 IR), Roto league with skater categories of G, A, Pts, Special Team Pts, SOG, Hits, Blks. My current roster is:

C: Auston Matthews, Vincent Trocheck, Ryan O'Reilly

LW: J.T. Miller, Zach Hyman, Kevin Fiala, Dubois

RW: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, Gabe Vilardi, Eeli Tolvanen

UT: Pavel Zacha

D: Moritz Seider, Rasmus Dahlin, Filip Hronek, Seth Jones, Erik Gustafsson

IR: Barrett Hayton, Lehkonen, Jamie Drysdale

G: Jeremy Swayman, Connor Ingram, Pyotr Kochetkov, Vitek Vanecek, Akira Schmid, Semyon Varlamov

I’m willing to be patient with players if I believe they have potential for 70-pt pace with PPPts and decent peripherals, since I have some talent to use while I wait for a guy to be at a level to make my starting lineup. The concerning thing with PLD though is he’s on the third line (although I realize that can change if he starts playing better), but more alarming is he’s not hitting this year, which was a big factor in me drafting him.

Free agents forwards available as I write this (note: now several weeks ago) include Trevor Zegras, Wyatt Johnston, Cole Perfetti, Casey Mittelstadt, Sean Couturier. It's a thinner crop at D, with the two notable names being Cam York and Jake Walman. I might drop Gustafsson for one of them.

Would you "hold and hope" with PLD, and what about dropping Gus for one of the two FA d-men?

There probably are a lot of frustrated PLD owners out there. Case in point – I actually received a question from another reader asking also what I'd do if I owned him.

To me, LA was among the worst landing spots for PLD. The Kings plays three scoring lines and have no big stars, as even Anze Kopitar is not logging the major minutes he had in in glory days. Yes, PLD's IPP on the PP is unsustainably low, but his overall IPP isn’t far from his norm at 58.3%, and it's been under 60% in two of the last three seasons. Simply put, he isn’t a points magnet, instead scoring in the past by being on a powerhouse line, like last season with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor and in the past alongside Artemi Panarin.

The good news is he’s being paid too much to be removed from the equation entirely; but LA is not going to depart from it’s team dynamic to try and jumpstart him, not when things are working well overall. I think this will be a lost season for him, and I’m not sure how he will fare long term, or at least until Anze Kopitar is out of the picture and Dubois gets a shot to be the top line center.

Big picture, I do wonder also if PLD will ever be able to truly deliver. Given where he was picked and how he's fared, I worry he might be following a Kyle Turris trajectory, never quite making the leap into elite territory. The justification that was used to preach patience with PLD had been that, as a larger frame player, he hadn't reached his 400 game breakout threshold. Well he reached it last season and did much better, but has failed to parlay that into success for 2023-24, again raising concern that he needs to be alongside talent to produce.

In short, I think that with the forward talent available on the waiver wire, PLD is a pretty easy drop. I'd swap in Mittelstadt, who has found a way to produce no matter where he's slotted in the Buffalo lineup.

In terms of Gustafsson, he's scoreless in ten of his past 12 games, although he did net four points in the two games where he did hit the score sheet. But if we look at his TOI, it's up and – mostly – down. Yes, the Rangers are a high scoring team and Gus will be deployed favorably when on the ice; however, he's not poised for success and in fact might be one step removed from healthy scratch territory. I'd take either York or Walman over him, probably Walman as his peripherals are slightly better and York hasn't been able to grab the PP1 reins like many felt he would and probably still is probably another season or two away from being impactful. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Alexandre)

I've been offered Dougie Hamilton for Zach Werenski in a keeper league where goals are worth 2pts and assists 1pt. I'm reluctant because of Hamilton wasn't running PP1 this season before getting hurt and Werenski is a good bit younger and seems to be thriving despite being on Columbus. Would you accept the deal?

First off, this question came before Werenski got hurt. But with both players now on the shelf, that actually might make it easier to assess the situation.

The main difference between now and 2023-24 is the presence of Luke Hughes, who, as you noted, was deployed on PP1 even before Hamilton was hurt. And Hughes has done well in the role, sitting tied for 12th in PPPts among d-men while receiving the 17th most PP minutes. But Hamilton, despite having now played 14 fewer games and seeing well less than a minute of man advantage time when he was in the line-up, still has eight PPPts, which is just two fewer than Hughes.

In a way though, I wonder if Hamilton's PP production actually hurts him. How can that be? Well if you're the Devils and see how well Hamilton is faring on PP2, you love it and likely want to keep him there to help boost man advantage scoring from both units. Plus, this way you get to give the young Hughes more favorable deployment to ease him into the NHL.

Yes, Hamilton is paid a lot and has a proven track record; however, Hughes has a pedigree and is doing pretty darn well, such that New Jersey might just opt to keep things the way they'd been even when Hamilton returns to the line-up. Of course they could revert back to Hamilton being the top dog, and we can't ignore that possibility.

Given what stands to happen to Hamilton, is he worth obtaining when the price is Werenski? The strange thing is so far Werenski had just one goal. This from a player who, in each of his ages 19-22 seasons, had double digit goal totals, which would be huge in your league.

But Werenski is still managing to pace for what would be his most productive season. Digging deeper though reveals a couple of causes for concern First is his PP usage is now under 60%, after being 72.4% just two seasons ago. His overall TOI is off by about a 1:30 from 2021-22 as well. Plus, of his 24 assists, 15 – or 62.5% – have been secondary, after only once previously finishing a full season with over a 43% secondary assist rate. Not only are his goals down, but he's likely lucked into a number of assists. On top of those factors, he's shooting less overall, and below the rate of Hamilton.

As for their four-year difference in age, I wouldn't be too hung up on that, as Hamilton's type of game is one where I could see him doing well into his mid-30s. Still, all things being otherwise equal that would be a tiebreaker.  We also can't ignore Werenski starting to have a propensity for getting injured though.

In the end, I can't look past the goal-scoring prowess Werenski demonstrated in his early seasons, and the fact that occurred when he wasn't shooting more than he is now. Yes Hamilton scores goals at a very nice rate too, but Luke Hughes does loom somewhat large. My philosophy is not to make a trade unless I feel I'd emerge the clear winner, and I can't say that would happen here, so I'd be inclined to stick with Werenski. Good luck!

Question #3 (from John)

While I am fond of my goalies (10 team – H2H league), it turns out that as I write this (note: a few weeks ago) I’m the worst in a few goaltending categories. With 20 player rosters, I choose to roster 4 goalies and for now they are: Ilya Sorokin, Vitek Vanecek, Stuart Skinner and Joonas Korpisalo. Guys who are available to be picked up are Pyotr Kotchetkov, Jacob Markstrom, and Marc-Andre Fleury. Would you stand pat, or make any move(s)?

First off, Kotchetkov might've been snagged by this time. But even if he was, the latest word is Frederick Andersen should be returning within weeks, and when that happens my guess is Kotchetkov will be at best the back-up and perhaps returned to the AHL. It's not that he's underserving of a spot, just that the Canes likely want him to play every day in order to position him to succeed as the full time back-up next season (Antti Raanta is a UFA this coming summer) and then the starter in 2025-26 (Andersen will be a UFA in 2025). Still, Kotchetkov could be a decent plug in, allowing you to get some present term benefit. The risk, of course, is the goalie waiver wire runs dry; however, that might be a chance worth taking in order to benefit from Kotchetkov for the time being.

As for who I'd drop, for me it's Korpisalo. He is a very bad goalie, period. There's no sugarcoating it. If we go back to 2018-19 and look at some key stats for other 37 goalies who, like Korpisalo, have played 150+ games during the time frame. Korpisalo is fourth worst in Quality Start percentage, plus just two goalies have played fewer games but have more Really Bad Starts, and his GSAA is third worst. Yes, he might improve with the defensive-minded Jacques Martin at the helm now; however, he also could be pushed aside by Anton Forsberg or even Mads Sogaard. Dump Korpisalo for Kotchetkov. As for the others, Sorokin must be held, as he's too good not to right his ship. Skinner and Vanacek have not played up to expectations for sure.

Don't look now, but Markstrom has been superb of late, and his contract will give him every chance to keep the #1 role. But which of Skinner or Vanecek to drop? If it was me, it'd be Vanecek. His 2023-24 season was not as good as it seemed at the time, and Skinner has looked strong recently. In the end I'd be fine also with letting Vanecek go and replacing him with Markstrom. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Serge)

My question is about Erik Karlsson. No one was predicting a repeat of last season; however, on the stacked Pens some – myself included – figured he'd be in for a very, very good season. And although he's been decent, his production lags behind other d-men before whom he was taken in drafts. Should we expect more of the same for the rest of the season?

Karlsson is going to be rightfully remembered as one of the best offensive defensemen of his era. But let's not forget that prior to his explosion last season he hadn't scored at even a 60-point rate in three campaigns, and two of those saw him score at a rate of 57 and 59, or right near the 55 rate he's at as of when I wrote this.

What gives? For starters, let's cut Karlsson's goal total last season basically in half due to his SH% being nearly double his career rate. Also, as I've said previously, bad teams can have top tier scorers, as the best players feel they have to put the team on their shoulders. That's what happened last season in San Jose with Karlsson, and the result was career highs in both overall and PP IPP. In short, he was the player who generated offense and found a way to factor into the scoring.

Something else we can't forget is he had motivation to induce a trade out of San Jose. Many a UFA to be has played above his normal level to try and pad his wallet, and I suspect that Karlsson's desire to be elsewhere did lead to him upping his effort, and scoring, quite a bit. Now with the Pens, and being surrounded by so much other talent though, he's seemingly eased off the gas pedal.

That brings up a key point – Karlsson is on a team where, not since his early days with the Sens, has several very talented forwards, not to mention another talented d-man in Kris Letang. So yes, the Pens will score lots more goals this season than the Sharks in 2022-23; however, points will be harder to come by, as they will have to be distributed among more players. Nowhere is this more evident for 2023-24 than on the PP, where Karlsson has managed to maintain the PP1 QB reins despite the presence of Kris Letang; but Karlsson's PP IPP is under 60%. What's interesting is that it has been 70%+ for nine of his first ten seasons before dipping to below that mark in his three most recent campaigns; yet this would be a first for him if he ends up below 60% at season's end.

His overall IPP for 2023-24 thus far is comparatively even worse, at 44.0%. This from a player who's overall IPP was 57% or higher in eight of his first ten seasons and last season was 67.9%, so it's pronouncedly low. This is an area where I do feel he can and should improve given his style. Yes, the same factors are at play in terms of players who will syphon away points; however, under 50% for Karlsson just seems too low.

My take is if Karlsson maintains his spot on PP1, plus high OZ% (which is currently 57.2%) then I can see him scoring at closer to a 60-65 point pace over the rest of the season. So he might be a buy low if his GM is frustrated over the extent to which is production has fallen. Good question!

Question #5 (from Greg)

I enjoyed the poll that you ran last week about players who could do best if given a fresh start on a new team. The name that intrigued me most was Brady Skjei. He put up decent numbers the past two seasons, and is on pace to do even better for 2023-24, all basically without any PP Time. Is this the best we can hope for from him, and is it even sustainable?

If you look in the thread, I voted for Skjei as one of my five players. For a while the question in Carolina was whether Jaccob Slavin could fare better if only given a better chance to make an impact, and to some extent that still applies; however, Skjei is more intriguing because in his first full season he had 40 points for the Rangers, so there's always been this inkling that he was capable of more.

The interesting thing about Skjei in particular is going back to last season he has 12 total PPPts, which puts him in a tie for 44th among all defensemen. But his total PP minutes ranks him 76th. So he's making the most with the minutes he's getting, begging the question why he doesn't receive more. He is also a consistent 2+ SOG per game d-man and already gets a nice percentage of offensive zone starts, plus Tony DeAngelo appears to be on the outs and Brent Burns has just two more PPPt than Skjei despite logging two minutes more than Skjei per game on the PP.

Here's the thing we all have to remember: real hockey is concerned with real results, not with what seems like is best/deserved with regard to fantasy. Case in point: Carolina is a team that has the very talented Sebastian Aho on it, but has not given him 20 minutes per game of ice time in this season or in any of the past four.

The other thing that should be noted is Skjei has 15 assists as I write this, of which 11 are secondary, and that's a lot even for a defenseman. On top of that, his overall IPP is over 55%, and is 100% on the PP. Yes, that could be a testament to his skill; however, his IPP had been steady at 46.3% and 47.0% over the past two seasons, so that seems more in his range. That, in turn, suggests his higher point total for the 2023-24 season thus far might be unsustainable.

So yes, if Skjei someone were given a fair shot at running PP1 he might stand to benefit. But Carolina seems content having him deployed the way he is, at least for now. Let's also not forget that he's set to be a UFA after this season, and might be given a better chance on a new team, so grabbing him in a keeper could be a risk worth taking. Good question!

Question #6 (from Frank)

I'm in a 16 team keep 7, non-H2H league with cash payouts for the top three finishers and skater scoring of 1 point for a goal or assist and 0.05 points for a Hit or SOG. I was stuck in 7th for all of December, but 3rd place is only 50 points ahead of me, and first place is 108 points ahead. My question is how do you know when/if it is time to pull the plug on the season and start prepping for the next campaign?

I realize you need to focus on the top three teams since that is what it will take to get into the money. But keep in mind there are three other teams ahead of you as well. You need to leapfrog four teams to get into the money. The good news is we're not yet at the halfway point in the season, so there is time to improve.

Not only will your team need to improve, but the others ahead of you will need to be comparatively worse. And that can be a tall order, since don't forget that when your players do well, those on other teams will too, unless somehow you own/stack several players on the same squad. A good example might be where you have Jake Guentzel; if he does better but someone ahead of you has Sidney Crosby, then you might not have a net improvement. Am I saying you need to have your roster full of team stacks? Not necessarily; however, you need to find a way to improve where others above your don't at the same time.

The ways to try and do so are to find players who do well on teams where their linemates aren't necessarily owned or aren't faring as well. Examples are Mathew Barzal, Robert Thomas, Jack Eichel, Tim Stutzle, and Sebastian Aho. Another option is defensemen who produce well but on teams where not a lot of forwards put up big numbers, like Roman Josi, Noah Dobson, and Vince Dunn.

With all those things in mind, I'd give it through January, seeing how your scoring looks as compared to how it did in the prior three months. If you're not trending up enough nor the other teams down enough, then you should focus solely on getting the best seven keepers for next season, with the goal being to have very little in the way of talent beyond those seven, since they'll do you no good if you're not in the running for a money spot. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Francois)

I’m in a points only keeper, very much in the race for a championship this season and am not planning on keeping any defensemen. My dilemma though is which d-man to drop, if any, for the soon to return Thomas Chabot? The options are Filip Hronek, Cam Fowler, K’André Miller, Brent Burns, Aaron Ekblad and Rasmus Andersson. Who would you be most inclined to drop?

This is a tough one, as all seven have "warts." Chabot wasn't playing amazingly before he got hurt, and there is a three-headed monster in Ottawa, with Chabot being the one most often on the outside looking in when it came to PP time. Burns seems like he's cooked. His SOG rate is down, and of his 13 assists ten are secondary. But is there really anyone else who poses a viable threat to his "spot" given how disfavored Tony DeAngelo is and Carolina's reluctance to use either Brady Skjei or Jaccob Slavin on the PP? Ekblad has been the invisible man since his return; and unlike last season Florida is not using a two d-men PP1, leaving Ekblad with PP2 scraps. Hronek has come back to earth in a major way both in terms of SOG and scoring. Best not to factor in his huge Q1 numbers into the equation. Fowler is a steady eddie, but his team scoring isn't great and he has youngsters nipping at his heels. Miller started slow but has looked better of late; however, his PP time and OZ% is the worst of the bunch.

I think Fowler, Andersson, Chabot and Hronek are not the drop. At worst they're going to give you point per every other game output, with a chance for more. Ekblad and Burns both look lousy, but Ekblad might just be getting up to speed and, as I noted, Burns' spot seems safe such that points will come. So I'd say the drop is Miller. His real-life value just doesn't translate to points only pools as yet. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Boyd)

I'm in a dynasty cap (NHL cap) league that has 20 teams. Each weekly H2H matchup has categories including G, A, Pts, HIT, PIM, SOG, Takeaways and 5 goalie categories).

I'm currently in 2nd place and have acquired 4 first rounders (one potential lottery and 3 playoff contenders) in the upcoming draft. What do you think Tyler Toffoli's new contract will be next year? Is it worth trading him for a player such as Nikolaj Ehlers? Or what about Toffoli and a 1st rounder for Evander Kane since Kane also covers a lot of categories and Hits and PIM are my weaknesses. I also have Rasmus Dahlin; and while I can make his extension work under the cap it would be tough. I was offered Mikhail Sergachev and a potential late 2024 1st rounder for Dahlin. I turned it down as Dahlin fills more categories than Sergachev, especially if Hedman continues to loom large. Is it worth keeping Dahlin at his upcoming cap hit? What if it was Charlie McAvoy instead of Sergachev?

Toffoli was firing on all cylinders to start 2023-24, with 23 points (7PPPts) in his first 21 games while tallying 68 SOG. Since then, he's scored a mere four points in 12 games with zero PPPts and 28 SOG. As it so happens, Jack Hughes has also slowed during this time frame, with "only" 11 points in 11 games. Given the proven production that Hughes had last season without Toffoli, the takeaway is Toffoli's fantasy fate is largely tied to that of Hughes. The issue is New Jersey might see Toffoli now as an anchor on the Hughes line. Already Toffoli's ice time is shrinking, albeit not yet on the PP; however, that might be a casualty too if he keeps failing to produce there as well. And New Jersey has no shortage of capable wingers, such that Toffoli's spot is not set in stone.

Still Toffoli managed to score at a 73 point pace for a terrible Calgary team last season, and at a 69 point pace for a bad Montreal squad in 2021-22. This bodes well for him post-UFA, since either he goes to a team that needs to rely upon him, as Calgary and Montreal did, or to a squad where he'll be a top line winger, hopefully playing alongside someone of Hughes' caliber.

As for his Toffoli's contract amount, unless they re-sign, this will be a pretty impressive UFA winger class, with William Nylander, Jake Guentzel, Sam Reinhart, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Teuvo Teravainen. In terms of how much he'll get paid, let's use last season as a barometer. It was a much shallower UFA winger class, "highlighted" by Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Killorn, Jason Zucker, and Bertuzzi, each of whom got in the $5-6M range. One has to think Toffoli will get more, although at age 32 he'll be older than any of those four. I'm guessing something like four years, $27M, or just under $7M per season. But I'm far from an expert in guessing cap hits.

Would I deal Toffoli for Ehlers? If Ehlers had the same opportunities as Toffoli has had over his career he likely could've put up much better numbers. But the reality is Ehlers has been pigeonholed into a role that sees him not as a focal point. And if that didn't change this season I'm not sure it will until he's a UFA after 2024-25. But that brings up a good point in that getting Ehlers now might be a shrewd move in that he will be able to dictate his landing spot in 2025 and still will be in the prime of his career at only age 29. But that also likely will lead to Ehlers' new deal being more than Toffoli's, as I think Ehlers will sign somewhere for north of $7M.

As for Kane, he looked great for a while, but of late has pulled a disappearing act. His hits are superb, but I worry that Edmonton will grow weary of his inconsistency and it may cost him a spot in the top six. The fact that it would require you to part with a first rounder is a tough pill to swallow too.

If it was me, I'd not do the Kane trade, as the cost and risks are too much in my view. The Ehlers deal is a very close one. Normally when that's the case I choose to not do the deal, as I usually only try to make trades where I know I will emerge as the beneficiary. But if you believe in Ehlers enough to think that he can thrive once on a new team in 2025-26, then you should pull the trigger.

I'm a big fan of Dahlin. He shoots a lot, has great IPPs, and is the QB of a high octane PP1. Yes, his new deal is pricey; however, it's not like Sergachev is cheap, plus, as you said, he comes with more question marks. Once Victor Hedman fades, who's to say Tampa will be as high scoring as they are now? I also think that the pick you'd get being a late first rounder is a factor. McAvoy is someone I see as being a Drew Doughty type, who'll usually be good but likely never superb. I'm not trading Dahlin for him, even if the first rounder is better than the one you'd getting if you were to do the Sergachev deal. Long story short, I'm definitely in favor of you holding Dahlin if, as you said, you can make his cap hit work, as he's just too special of a player. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.