There were some notes from Columbus that fantasy owners may want to keep an eye on.

First, Jack Roslovic worked his way to the top line with Adam Fantilli and Johnny Gaudreau at practice on Wednesday. With the injuries up front, Roslovic has a chance to gain some fantasy value if he can stick there, but that's a giant 'if'.

Secondly, an update on Adam Boqvist:

#CBJ defenseman Adam Boqvist is on the ice for practice today. Pascal Vincent said Boqvist had started skating on his own but this will be his first full-team skate as he rehabs a shoulder injury.

— Jeff Svoboda (@JacketsInsider) January 3, 2024

With Zach Werenski currently injured, the team needs puck movers and getting Boqvist back at practice is a step in the right direction. We'll see when he's ready, but there may be a decent offensive opportunity for him.

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The big news from Wednesday was Los Angeles Kings prospect Brandt Clarke getting the call:

LA Kings Roster Move

Brandt Clarke will be recalled and join the team for practice today

— The Mayor | Team MM (@mayorNHL) January 3, 2024

Clarke leads the AHL in points from a defenceman and is tied for third in the league among all skaters. He is arguably the top defence prospect not to reach the NHL this season and comes on the heels of the Kings getting shutout by the Leafs. They have been on a big 5-on-5 scoring skid despite still generating a lot of shots, so maybe this is the shot in the arm they need to get some goals on the board. It is hard to see him skating a top-4 role by ice time, so we'll have to see how he's used, but this is a big development for fantasy managers and the team.  

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New Jersey prospect forward, and brother of Brandt, Graeme Clarke was called up, and in the lineup, for Wednesday's game against Washington. Clarke has 11 goals in 27 games in the AHL this season, averaging three shots per game. (Edit: He didn’t actually end up in the lineup, but good for him anyway.)

Nico Hischier had two goals and an assist while Dawson Mercer had a pair of tallies in in New Jersey's 6-3 win over Washington last night. Max Pacioretty made his season debut for the Capitals and skated under 12 minutes while being off the power play entirely.

Michael McLeod also chipped in with a pair of goals and a pair of hits in a very good fantasy night. He is on pace to reach 20 goals and 30 points for the first time in his career while threatening 150 hits. While this is his best fantasy season he's also having a great real-life season at both ends of the ice and seems like he should be the team's third centre for now.

Evgeny Kuznetsov had a goal and an assist in the loss, his first multi-point game in nearly two months. Connor McMichael and John Carlson also got on the scoreboard.

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Lukas Dostal had one of the best goaltending performances we'll see all season, but still lost as Toronto beat Anaheim 2-1 in overtime. Dostal made 55 saves on 57 shots and that pushed his season's save percentage back over .900.

John Tavares scored (PP) late in the third period to tie the game 1-1 and Auston Matthews finished things off in overtime. Frank Vatrano (SH) scored his 18^th goal of the season while posting five shots, two penalty minutes, and a pair of hits in a great fantasy night.

Martin Jones saved 27 of 28 for his second win in as many nights. He now has a .930 (!!!) save percentage in 10 appearances (eight starts) for the Leafs.

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Part of fantasy hockey is assembling data from many various sources. One I have come to rely on over the last half-decade is from AllThreeZones, a Patreon that tracks hundreds of games every year by hand to see which players succeed (or fail) in a lot of measures that aren't covered by other publications.

One rate stat I use frequently is scoring chance assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (SCA/60). The two reasons for that are that it demonstrates a playmaking skill that can project from year to year, as well as which players are helping their line mates create chances (and, hopefully, goals). Not all assists are created equal, but parsing small samples even further doesn't help.

Let's look at which forwards are seeing growth or decline in SCA/60 when compared to last year. They can help identify players that may be getting (un)lucky points-wise, which can help point us to which players may or may not see a turnaround in their production over the second half of the season. Aside from A3Z, other data will be from Natural Stat Trick.

(Note: Sample sizes are always an issue so the two parameters will be at least 500 total even-strength minutes in 2022-23 and at least 125 tracked minutes in 2023-24.)

To start with, here are the top-5 biggest improvements:

There are many fantasy owners frustrated with Jordan Kyrou's performance, largely thanks to his 7.3% shooting and 26 points in 36 games. He does have nine points in his last eight games, so maybe his luck is starting to turn a bit. It is very notable that he improved his playmaking numbers significantly in the first half, so maybe he was focused more on other areas of his game than just finishing his shots. Whatever the cause, Kyrou is averaging over 20 minutes a game across his last five games and the offense is coming around. The buy-low window may be closed, but he's showing glimpses of being a high-end dual-threat offensive star.

It took Kirill Marchenko a grand total of nine games to equal his 59-game assist total from 2022-23 and it seems the large rise in scoring chance assists is part of it. Goals and ice time have dried up a bit for him of late, but Marchenko doesn't need to be an elite playmaker to have fantasy value. Just demonstrating the ability to get to 30 assists eventually is important, and he looks like he'll be a big part of Columbus's offensive attack for years to come. Whether the second half is kind to him is less certain because of the team's struggles.

Fantasy hockey wouldn't be a frustrating endeavour if Clayton Keller, who had been a great even-strength producer for years but struggled on the power play, didn't have a season where he improved his 5-on-5 playmaking, was getting a lot more PP production, and yet his 5-on-5 production cratered. The injury to Barrett Hayton has hurt the top line's scoring a lot more than I thought it would, and with Hayton out until after the All-Star break, the turnaround may be a little while yet (if at all).

Just a little ways down the largest improvements is a very interesting name:

This is fascinating for a couple reasons. First, he was shipped out by Toronto in favour of David Kampf, who has been a healthy scratch at times this season like Engvall. Secondly, over the last two seasons, New York's second line has been better in every regard – shots, goals, and expected goals for as well as shots, goals, and expected goals against – with Engvall on the line than without him:

The 27-year-old winger is not a good fantasy asset in and of himself, but he's certainly helping the other two forwards on his line be better fantasy options, and that's worth noting.

Rounding out the 15 largest improvements is a trio of veteran wingers that are all having excellent seasons:

As he stands right now, Sam Reinhart has the second-highest assists/60 of his career at 5-on-5, trailing only his first year in Florida. He is on pace for 47 total assists, which would also be the second-highest rate of his career. If his power-play helpers can increase, he has a shot at cracking 50 assists for the first time ever. As a pending free agent, it's not a bad time for this kind of production.  

Like Reinhart, Travis Konecny has the second-highest assists/60 of his career at 5-on-5. He is having a good season where he could push for 40 goals and 70 points, but he has one (1) power play assist and three power play points total. Philadelphia's complete inability to create on the man advantage is really hurting what could have been an outstanding fantasy season from him. Otherwise, he has turned into one of the most underrated offensive wingers in the league (though a large drop in hits will hurt his multi-cat fantasy value regardless).

Matthew Tkachuk and Pierre-Luc Dubois

To round out the improvements, two veterans having down years among the 39 forwards to add at least 1.25 SCA/60 to their total from last year are Tkachuk and Dubois.

As for Tkachuk, his assist rate at 5-on-5 is less than half of either of his prior two seasons so it's not just his goal-scoring that has taken a dive. Florida is shooting 7.5% with him on the ice at 5-on-5, which would be his lowest mark in six years. With his shot rate declining over the last month and his expected goals rate also a six-year low, there are a lot of red flags here.

Dubois is having a year where his boxcar stats look a lot worse than they should. His 5-on-5 points/60 is a four-year high, his primary assist rate is the highest of his career, but a minimized role on a deep Los Angeles roster is killing his fantasy value. Until he gets regular top-6 minutes, it's hard to say his fantasy value will improve significantly.

Alright, time to look at the declines, starting with the biggest drops:

That there are two Leafs on this list probably explains the frustrations with players not named Auston Matthews or William Nylander. The one that interests me is Mitch Marner. Late in October, I wrote about how some of his shooting and skating metrics had taken a dive when compared to recent seasons. Looking at this SCA/60 data, he's seen a big playmaking drop as well. He currently has a six-year low in assists per minute at 5-on-5 and his overall assists per game is also a six-year low. There is genuine cause for concern in the second half.

Be careful about Wyatt Johnston as well. His SCA/60 has cratered and though his assist rates are all higher than his rookie season, that's because he's figuring in on nearly 87% of goals scored with him on the ice. That is an unsustainable number and if his (and his line mates') play doesn't improve, there could be a second-half downturn. (Also, for posterity, Evgenii Dadonov isn't far behind Johnston in SCA/60 drop so his entire line is having problems.)

Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt, and JJ Peterka

There are 21 forwards on the list that have all seen drops of at least 2.0 SCA/60 when compared to 2022-23. Of those 21 forwards, three of them are the Buffalo Sabres named above. I am sure that Mittelstadt fantasy owners are not upset with his production, but it's worth pointing out his primary assist rate at 5-on-5 is down nearly 10% from last season so the improvements in his overall production are a function of shooting percentage, secondary assists, and ice time. It isn't a bad tradeoff, but something to keep an eye on.  

Peterka has a similar issue. He is averaging an extra 1:49 per game at 5-on-5, has seen his shooting percentage rise nearly 2%, and has more than doubled his secondary assist rate. However, his primary assist rate has declined. There isn't something to worry over here long-term, but if his shooting percentage, ice time, and secondary assists dry up without improvements elsewhere, so will the points in the second half.

Whatever is going on with Thompson, the team needs to figure it out. He is too talented to see both his goals and assists per minute completely crater. He is generating lower-quality shots than his three-year Buffalo average by 16% and his chance assists have fallen off considerably. It is concerning when hoping for a second-half turnaround, though he has enough skill to make it happen.