Looking Ahead: Pacioretty a Short-Term Dice Roll; Colton Parayk-No & Others
Andrew Santillo
2024-01-05
Welcome back everyone! I hope that everyone had a fantastic New Year's and wishing everyone all the best in 2024.
Let's talk schedule here, mainly on what the outlook is for this week into next. If you play fantasy hockey, and since you're here I'm sure you do, you'll notice that the NHL is back on their 16-game slate, followed by a two gamer, then we hit another 16 games, so on and so forth. Next week will be similar to this so I just want to make mention if you are looking to add someone for the "off" days next week, I definitely think that's always a good play. Someday when they make me the NHL Schedule Czar (not sure why I'd be a czar but I'm just going with that), we'll make the schedule make sense but for now this is the hand we're dealt.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Max Pacioretty, LW, Washington Capitals (Rostered in 11% of ESPN leagues, 59% Fantrax, 34% Yahoo) – I forgot Max Pacioretty was on the Capitals until about 14 hours ago but here we are and here he is as this week Immediate Fix. Maybe not so much an Immediate Fix, but an Immediate let's roll the dice?
Two seasons ago I had Max Pacioretty in my main league and loved it. His shot rates were great, contributed on most of the Vegas scoring chances, and for DFS was fantastic as most of the time the Vegas second line would be higher rostered leaving Pacioretty free for weak matchups on home ice. What happened since then? Well, two very major injuries which has me cautious here, but I keep going back to the player that he was and can maybe see a roadmap here for production offensively. I kicked the tires on him when he was in Carolina and in the very limited time, he was on the ice I thought that he looked good before injuries struck again.
I know I always say that sometimes name value alone can be something to avoid but here I just want to throw Pacioretty's name out there on everyone's radar for a potential add. Maybe an Immediate Fix with Washington on the schedule more this week, but in the next couple of weeks he might be a good player to flag for a potential add if his stock begins to rise. I can expect that he'll be shuffled along the Capitals line and worst case he helps out some of the struggling players on this Washington club. For DFS, it's Washington and Pittsburgh that are stay aways for me, unless it's Alex Ovechkin on a Sunday. I don't have a fancy stat to back that up other than I feel like Marty McFly, "Hey I've seen this one!", in watching him score two goals against New Jersey/Philadelphia/the Islanders on a Sunday right around the time the 3 o'clock Central football games start.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Gustav Nyquist, RW, Nashville Predators (Rostered in 13% of ESPN leagues, 39% Fantrax, 21% Yahoo) – People who play fantasy baseball out there will get this analogy, but it feels like we hit a point in the MLB season where you circle back to a player that you've had before on your roster that becomes part of your club for a second/third time. Like come August you're adding back C.J. Cron to the lineup after rostering him for a weekend series back in May. We have sort of hit that point in the NHL season and for our Building Block I give you all Gustav Nyquist.
Let's start with the bad here then hopefully I can land this plane here with the good. Okay bad news, his ice time can take some hits every now and again but if you can be alright with that there's lots of good here. He currently has 10 points in his last seven games played and is skating along a fully correlated Nashville top line if you have another Nashville skater or roster them in DFS. I think he's sort of a surprise here as I assumed the Predators would mix and match their lines a fair bit, but for the most part Nyquist has skating along the Predator top line with Ryan O'Reilly and Filip Forsberg.
At this point in the fantasy season, my guess is the names that you're scrolling by on waivers have been for the most part the same since American Thanksgiving, and maybe Nyquist is still available. I think it's a good addition if you're in need of a forward in any size league and can say unless you're rostering O'Reilly, Forsberg, and I'll throw Roman Josi on there as well, that your club wouldn't be too overloaded with Nashville skaters if you're looking to add Nyquist to your club.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Colton Parayko, D, St. Louis Blues (Rostered in 70% of ESPN leagues, 33% Fantrax, 16% Yahoo) – As I write this, Justin Faulk has gone from "DTD" to "Out", to "IR". This just furthers my case here that Colton Parayko could be in an Odd-Man out situation here in St. Louis.
Why an Odd-Man out? With Justin Faulk out that would mean that Parayko should see power play time with St. Louis, right? Well, sort of? The Blues are going to run a mix of defensemen at least on their second unit out, which if you're like me, you're scratching your head as well. Marco Scandella will probably get time on the power play, along with maybe one of the top-ten least favorite Hawks ever Nick Leddy. Just stand straight when a shot is coming in at you next time and maybe we go to another Cup! But I digress, Nick Leddy is also not the answer here for you on the power play.
The roster numbers on Parayko are a little higher than I expected, and he can absolutely have short-term value here but I'm just curious how the Blues roll out their special teams. I think there's a chance here you could be in a good spot if you're rostering him, but I would just keep track of the lines rushes to see if he'll get that extra bump in ice time.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Logan Cooley, C, Arizona Coyotes (Rostered in 53% of ESPN leagues, 68%, Fantrax, 17% Yahoo) – Hand up here, I really overlooked Logan Cooley in his draft year and I think part of that had to do with COVID (even though I remember him on USA Juniors), and sort of chuckled at the pick. Not because of the number he was drafted at but that was the draft that all the Coyotes brass wore matching suits on stage looking like the "most diverse frat on campus". NHL, please keep the draft in a central location, it's one of the best hockey nights of the year.
I know I've written it here before, but I tend to avoid rookies in fantasy but do admit I had Cooley circled earlier in the season watching him play. The Coyotes played a game in New York and was really impressed with the way he was able to skate in the offensive zone and was available in my main league as I'm sure that was the case in a bulk of non-Dynasty leagues out there. Cooley was moved up to the Arizona top line and things started to slide south a bit, as defensively he was a liability and the offensive game started to dwindle. In the first 21 games of his career, he had 35 SOG, 13 points, and was seeing around 3:30 on the power play. The last 15 games haven't gone as well, with 19 SOG, five points, power play time down almost a full minute, and is now skating on the Arizona fourth line.
I think the play here is simple. If you're in dynasty or a keeper league, then Cooley is a lock on your roster. For everyone else out there I think it may be time to look elsewhere. I get it, talent is tantalizing and for a little bit there it looked as though once the goals started for him it wouldn't slow down, but for the time being it looks as though it has. He's a name to keep on your radar come next season's draft but for now he might be a replacement player for fantasy.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through January 5th – January 16th
Winnipeg – Second week in a row here for the Jets as a Love 'Em with a nice upcoming schedule. They see the Ducks and Coyotes on the road before coming home to face Columbus and Chicago. If you have the Jets in a Points Pool, you have to be smiling right now.
Boston – Four games next week for the B's shoots them right up the rankings to a Love 'Em. There are a couple tougher matchups for them on the road, but it's a perfect spot for those who roster any Boston skater in fantasy.
Philadelphia – Philadelphia is coming up more and more on the analyzer and I think there's a lot to that, they've got a decent penalty kill and good defensive forwards up top that have put them in the spot that they're currently in. They see Montreal and a beat-up Minnesota club next week.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
New Jersey – A two game week upcoming for the Devils gets them on the Leave 'Em side of things for the time being. This could be a great time for a break for this club who will be in action more in the coming weeks.
Carolina – Even with the Ducks on the horizon, the schedule is on the lighter side for Carolina. They're a Leave 'Em this week.
Columbus – Not sure if anyone out there is rushing out to play the Jackets, but for now they're a Leave 'Em with two games on the schedule next week.
Friday, January 5th to Thursday, January 11th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.50 – Away ANA ARI – Home CBJ CHI |
Calgary 4.43 – Away PHI CHI ARI – Home OTT |
Chicago 4.04 – Away NJD WPG – Home CGY EDM |
Boston 3.84 – Away COL ARI VGK – Home TBL |
Anaheim 3.82 – Away NSH CAR – Home WPG DET |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 1.90 – Away WPG – Home MIN |
Nashville 2.01 – Away DAL – Home ANA |
Seattle 2.04 – Away BUF WSH |
Detroit 2.10 – Away ANA – Home EDM |
Vegas 2.89 – Away COL – Home NYI BOS |
Saturday, January 6th to Thursday, January 12th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Calgary 4.43 – Away PHI CHI ARI – Home OTT |
Philadelphia 4.16 – Away MIN – Home CGY PIT MTL |
Minnesota 4.01 – Away CBJ DAL -Home DAL PHI |
Boston 3.84 – Away COL ARI VGK |
Dallas 3.80 – Away MIN – Home NSH MIN NSH |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey 1.80 – Away TBL – Home VAN |
Columbus 1.90 – Away WPG – Home MIN |
Seattle 2.04 – Away BUF WSH |
Detroit 2.10 – Away ANA – Home EDM |
Washington 2.10 – Home LAK SEA |
Sunday, January 7th to Saturday, January 13th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.66 – Away ARI – Home CBJ CHI PHI |
Calgary 4.29 – Away CHI ARI VGK – Home OTT |
Minnesota 4.22 – Away DAL – Home DAL PHI ARI |
Philadelphia 4.14 – Away MIN WPG – Home PIT MTL |
Chicago 3.94 – Away WPG – Home CGY EDM DAL |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey 1.76 – Away TBL FLA |
Columbus 2.11 – Away WPG – Home SEA |
Carolina 2.21 – Home ANA PIT |
Pittsburgh 2.80 – Away PHI CAR – Home VAN |
Vegas 2.80 – Away COL – Home BOS CGY |
Monday, January 8th to Sunday, January 14th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Minnesota 4.22 – Away DAL – Home DAL PHI ARI |
Toronto 4.12 – Away NYI – Home SJS COL DET |
Philadelphia 4.12 – Away MIN WPG – Home PIT MTL |
NY Rangers 3.95 – Away STL WSH – Home VAN WSH |
Dallas 3.94 – Away MIN CHI – Home NSH |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey 1.76 – Away TBL FLA |
Columbus 2.11 – Away WPG – Home SEA |
Carolina 2.21 – Home ANA PIT |
Anaheim 2.52 – Away NSH CAR TBL |
Los Angeles 2.76 – Away TBL FLA DET |
Tuesday, January 9th to Monday, January 15th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Buffalo 4.46 – Home SEA OTT VAN SJS |
Montreal 4.35 – Away PHI – Home SJS EDM COL |
Minnesota 4.16 – Away DAL – Home PHI ARI NYI |
Florida 4.16 – Away STL – Home LAK NJD ANA |
San Jose 4.13 – Away TOR MTL OTT BUF |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey 2.61 – Away TBL FLA BOS |
Arizona 2.80 – Away MIN – Home BOS CGY |
Pittsburgh 2.86 – Away CAR – Home VAN SEA |
Chicago 2.95 – Away WPG – Home EDM DAL |
Detroit 2.95 – Away TOR – Home EDM LAK |
Wednesday, January 10th to Tuesday, January 16th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Montreal 4.35 – Away PHI – Home SJS EDM COL |
San Jose 4.32 – Away MTL OTT BUF CHI |
Minnesota 4.16 – Away DAL – Home PHI ARI NYI |
NY Rangers 4.16 – Away STL WSH – Home WSH SEA |
Colorado 4.14 – Away TOR MTL OTT – Home VGK |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 2.10 – Home SEA VAN |
Tampa Bay 2.31 – Home NJD ANA |
New Jersey 2.61 – Away TBL FLA BOS |
Nashville 2.70 – Away DAL VGK – Home NYI |
Arizona 2.76 – Away MIN CGY – Home CGY |
Thursday, January 11th to Wednesday, January 16th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Buffalo 4.57 – Home OTT VAN SJS CHI |
Florida 4.36 – Home LAK NJD ANA DET |
San Jose 4.32 – Away MTL OTT BUF CHI |
Montreal 4.30 – Away NJD – Home SJS EDM COL |
Chicago 4.20 – Away WPG BUF – Home DAL SJS |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 2.10 – Home SEA VAN |
Tampa Bay 2.31 – Home NJD ANA |
Nashville 2.70 – Away DAL VGK – Home NYI |
Philadelphia 2.71 – Away MIN WPG STL |
Arizona 2.76 – Away MIN CGY – Home CGY |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.