Happy New Year everyone! It's a time of rejuvenation and hope and an excellent time for a fresh start. In today's Top 10 article, I will be discussing 10 players who will be better in 2024 than they were in 2023. These players are all due for a bounce back in my estimation so without further ado, let's get into it. Please reach out to me on Twitter/X @BlakeCreamerAG if you have any fantasy hockey related questions at all. I would be happy to help you out. 

10) Owen Tippett

It was only a few short weeks ago when Flyers bench boss John Tortorella mentioned that he should probably be giving Owen Tippett some more ice time. Yes John, I think you should. Tippett has been a shot-monster this season in limited minutes as evidenced by his career-high 13.35 SOG/60 (good for 6th best in the entire league). Unfortunately, he hasn't seen the ice as much through the first 39 games of the campaign and he is averaging 15:40, down from 17:26 in 2022. His point production is down as well as he is currently cooking up a 46-point pace.

The good news is that Torts has stayed true to his word and has rewarded Tippett with an increase in TOI and more offensive opportunities by putting him on the top power play unit. While it hasn’t equaled more production as of yet, Tippett is doing all the right things under the hood and I believe, if his TOI holds, he could play at a 60-65-point pace for the remainder of the season.

9) Rickard Rakell

Rakell has had a rough start to the season to say the least. He struggled mightily to find his shooting touch and was only able to muster a measly four assists through the first 17 games while still getting top-6 deployment. Then the injury bug hit and he was sidelined for the next 12 games with an upper-body injury. This is a player coming off of a very successful first full season with the Pens where he accumulated 60 points in 82 games.

Fast forward to his return from the IR and he now has nine points in nine games and he appears to have locked down his role on the top power-play unit. His ice time is trending upwards as well now that he is skating on the top line with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. It didn't hurt that Bryan Rust was injured when Rakell made his return as Rust is the main competition for power play time, but now that Rust is back, we are still seeing Rakell on the top unit. That bodes well for him moving forward and definitely raises the ceiling on this player.

Rakell is currently pacing for 41 points but that is with a laughable 5.8 shooting percentage. That is not sustainable and will likely bump up closer to career numbers. If the last five games are any indication of what Rakell is capable of, we could have a fantasy gem on our hands who might still be available on your waiver wires. A 60-point pace for the rest of the season is in the wheelhouse for Rakell. Book it. 

8) Andrei Vasilevskiy

Would it surprise you to know that the Lightning have had some of the worst goaltending in the league this year? Obviously, that is not all on former Conn Smythe winner Vasilevsky, but it is an unexpected trend no question. Career backup Jonas Johansson has been no help in that department despite putting together a winning record in 21 games (9-6-5). In 18 games since returning, Vasi has gone 9-9 with an .895 save percentage and a goals-against average of 3.01. Even more concerning, has been his GSAA (Goals saved above average), which sits at -3.82.

Vasi is coming off of a significant injury to his back and he returned to the ice quicker than his injury timeline suggested. What we are seeing is a player who is still trying to find his rhythm. Tampa as a team is performing similarly to last season in terms of their shot and scoring chance suppression and their special teams have been good as well. Vasi just has not been performing to his potential.

This is an opportune time to go out and try to acquire this player. Vasi is one of the last true workhorse goalies left in the league and when you are the caliber of player that he clearly is, you don't just forget how to play hockey. He will get the bulk of starts moving forward and the Lightning's offense should be able to carry him to a few victories while he is still working out the kinks. I have absolutely no concerns about Vasilevsky and his numbers will bounce back sooner rather than later. 

7) John Carlson

The Capitals former All-Star defenseman has shown signs of life over the last few games after a lackluster start to the year. Over the last five games, Carlson has put together a nice little stretch with four points (2G, 2A), including a game-winning goal in the final minute against the LA Kings on January 7. He is still having issues converting and is shooting a career-worst 3.8% on the season. Some of this is likely due to the general decline of a lot of the Capitals best players including Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom. Plus, the Caps have a new coach in Spencer Carbery so there has been some growing pains as well.

That said, this man still chugs minutes and is currently on a career-high ATOI pace (25:34) including all the top power-play deployment. He is on a 50-point pace currently but I believe he can pace around 60-65 for the remainder of the year, as long as "The Great Eight" holds up his side of the bargain.

6) Brandon Montour

I've been fielding a lot of questions regarding Montour and his outlook for the rest of the year and I keep coming up with the same responses. I am not at all concerned about his lack of output since returning from injury. He is on pace for 25 points after breaking out last season to the tune of 73 points including 16 goals. I refuse to believe that the 2023-2024 version of Montour is what we should expect moving forward. Do you think that he will continue to shoot a lowly 1.9% on just 2.3 SOG/G? Me neither. His deployment is strong with an ATOI of 23:08 and he is heading up the top power-play unit and I believe that spot is his until further notice. He's just been unlucky with his conversion rate, but there is still a lot of season left.

It is well within the range of possibilities for Montour to finish the year on a 65-point pace and to be honest, I expect it. This man had shoulder surgery in the offseason after a long run in the playoffs. I am always cautious of players who miss training camp due to injuries and we need to manage our expectations when this happens. The Panthers are rounding into form with eight wins in their last ten games and that gives Montour some breathing room to work his way out of this slump and will help to take the pressure off. This is an amazing buy-low opportunity and I would be throwing out offers while the window is still open because it will eventually slam shut and all that value will go with it. 

5) Cole Caufield

Let's talk about the curious case of Cole Caufield. One of, if not the main difference between Caufield's performance this season compared to the last, is his inability to convert at 5 on 5.  As you can see, there has been a sharp downturn in SH% even though the SOG/60 has maintained. Expect this to bump up significantly as the season progresses as Caufield's chance generation has also held strong and is even higher than last year at 9.43.

Lots of shots plus lots of individual scoring chances equals more production. It's as simple as that. This won't continue season-long and while he may not reach the heights that some fantasy analysts predicted, he is much better than the 57-point pace that he has been on so far not to mention his shooting percentage overall (7.9%) is not sustainable and Caulfield is a much more efficient player than he has shown so far. Trust the metrics and the deployment in this case. 

4) Alex Ovechkin

The decline in play for this first-ballot Hall of Famer has been well documented, but Ovechkin still has some gas left in the tank. There are definitely some concerning trends for Ovie and it starts with his SOG/60 which are a career-worst 10.88 at all strengths. This number is still good for 36th highest in the entire league, but it is not what we've come to expect from this player. His shooting percentage is also at an all-time worst 6% and it resulted in a 14-game goalless stretch (the longest of his career).

While it is hard to put a finger on what the exact issue is with Ovechkin, the underlying metrics are still more than enough for him to put up a bunch of points. The last five games have seen Ovie put up six points including two goals and this could be just the beginning. While some regression in his overall play is to be expected at age 38, he is still doing more than enough to provide fantasy managers with a ton of value and he is still a buy-low.

We may need to manage expectations here, but a 35-goal, 65-70-point pace is absolutely reasonable to me. Plus, he stays on for almost the entire power play and has for a long time. That is a major value in and of itself and with the return of Max Pacioretty and the improved play of players like Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson, Ovechkin should have enough to work with. Expect a bounce back from this legend. Gretzky's record might be beaten yet. 

3) Jordan Kyrou

Kyrou saw his lowest moments this year after a comment he made about former head coach Craig Berube. The St. Louis fans booed him mercilessly and it clearly affected the young star. Since then, however, he has gone off for 10 points in his last 10 games with increased TOI under new head coach Drew Bannister. Kyrou is a player who always shows out in the metrics I am interested in. On the season, he is 33rd overall in SOG/60, 23rd in iCF/60 and 36th in iSCF/60 and in his last five games, his ice time has increased from his season average of 18:21 to almost 21 minutes a night.

Coach Bannister has also loaded up the top line in St. Louis and reunited Kyrou with Robert Thomas (Matchbox 20) and Pavel Buchnevich. Kyrou's spot on the top power-play unit looks secure as well where he was being moved around a lot under Berube. It's arrows up for Kyrou at this point and even though he is currently pacing for 58 points, I could see a world where he is a point-per-game player for the remainder of the year. This is a player I am excited about and you should be too. 

2) Tim Stützle

Things have not gone to plan for the Senators this year. Their head coach was fired after an atrocious start, their goalies have fought the puck in almost every start this season and players like Stützle have underachieved massively after breaking out in 2022. Now, under new defensive-minded head coach Jacques Martin, the Senators appear to be struggling to acclimate to the new systems and they have gone 3-4 during that time.

There is hope however. After shooting 17.1% last year and popping for 39 goals, he has gone ice cold shooting a mere 6.8% including ZERO power play goals. That makes no sense and will not continue. Sometimes a coaching change mid-season can equal a boost in team production but it appears to have had the opposite effect on the Senators but I do believe it is coming. Even with all of these negative trends for Stützle, he is still pacing for 80 points and his ceiling is higher than that in my opinion. If nothing else changes besides his shooting percentage bumping up a few points, we are looking at a 30-goal player with 90-point upside.

It could be painful for a little bit while they figure things out, but the deployment and offensive acumen this man has will be enough to get him through. Basically, everything he has achieved so far this year has been done at his lowest point. This is the definition of a buy-low. Maybe last season was the outlier and we can't expect a 90-point player moving forward, but all signs point to Stützle regaining his scoring touch and converting more on the power play. Plus, he has a beautiful head of hair, so there's that. 

1) Matthew Tkachuk

Can we start to get a little bit excited about Matt Tkachuk? Were those two 100-point seasons for real? Was he worth the first-round draft pick you spent on him this year? You're damn skippy. While there are still some concerns with Tkachuk's goal scoring, we have to delight in his recent production. After pacing for 55 points at times during the early season, he now has 11 points in his last five games to right the ship.

One might wonder if the broken sternum he suffered in last year's playoffs has hampered him to start the year. The emergence of Sam Reinhart has softened the blow when it comes to Tkachuk's offensive output. Reinhart has become the trigger man on the top power play and Tkachuk has become more of a facilitator. Still, he only has one goal on the season with the man advantage. That is shocking honestly after back-to-back 40-goal seasons and I don't believe that it is what we will be looking at by the end of the year. Tkachuk's shooting percentage (5.8%) has been absurd to say the least and there is no way that holds throughout the year. I would expect goals in bunches and a 90-point pace moving forward. 

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That is it for this week's article. Thank you so much for reading. If you are interested in chatting with me one-on-one, you can reach me on a fantasy sports app called Didit. Click this link to download the app: https://t.co/eJSrN8Xlzp The first call is FREE for everyone so you have nothing to lose. Give me a call and we can talk about all things fantasy hockey. I can analyze your roster, answer any questions you have or just talk strategy.  

Please follow me on Twitter/X @BlakeCreamerAG and come and check out my fantasy hockey musings on the Apples and Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast. Celebrate your day. Bye for now.