The 2024 Dobber Hockey Midseason Fantasy Guide is set to release later this week! It has second-half projections, prospect updates, prospects that could make an appearance down the stretch, players on the trading block, and a whole lot more. Help support what we do by pre-ordering a copy right here.

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Toronto locked up one of its core pieces that was set to become a free agent this summer as William Nylander signed an eight-year extension:

Hearing Toronto and William Nylander closing 8x$11.5M extension. Full NMC all the way through.

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) January 8, 2024

Over the last three seasons, Nylander is among the top-10 wingers in the league by total points and he's currently pacing for his first 100-point effort this season. For cap league fantasy players, there is a decision to make. If Nylander is a 40-goal, 85-point winger, it's a tough cap hit to endure. If what he's done in 2023-24 (assuming similar production the rest of the way) is the new norm, at least for the next few seasons, it's palatable. At least a decision doesn't have to be made right now and we can wait to see what the Leafs do to the roster this summer.

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Philadelphia and Anaheim made a trade that seemed to come out of nowhere as the Flyers traded prospect Cutter Gauthier to Anaheim for Jamie Drysdale and a second-round pick:

TRADE ALERT: We have acquired defenseman Jamie Drysdale and a second-round selection in the 2025 NHL Draft from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for forward Cutter Gauthier. https://t.co/sxQDDJRVtD

— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) January 9, 2024

Frank Seravalli reported Gauthier did not want to play for Philadelphia. If he didn't want to be there, then this makes a lot more sense.

I will have a lot more on the trade with a full breakdown in the morning. At first blush, considering the circumstance they were thrust into, this seems like a good trade for the Flyers. It certainly open up avenues for Pavel Mintyukov to get prime minutes sometime soon and gives the Flyers a guy who could run their power play and play on the top pair.

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Jesper Fast was in a non-contact jersey at Carolina's practice, so it looks like he'll be returning soon enough. It'll be interesting to see how his return impacts the lineup because the team has been on a roll lately.

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Tampa Bay's blue line looks like it's starting to get healthy as Erik Cernak was on the ice for practice in a normal jersey on Monday. Still no Mikhail Sergachev, but a step in the right direction.

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For additional good news on the injury front, Colorado's Artturi Lehkonen was skating in a normal jersey for their morning skate yesterday. He didn't suit up for the game last night against Boston, but it does appear he's nearing a return. The team's next game is Wednesday night against Vegas, and then they're off until the weekend.

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The reunited Lotto line got another two points for the Canucks as Elias Pettersson had two goals and two assists, Brock Boeser had a goal and two assists, and JT Miller added a goal of his own in a 6-3 win over the New York Rangers. That makes 16 points in two games between the three of them. Not a bad swing through the East so far.

Nils Hoglander also scored twice while Filip Hronek had a pair of assists. Thatcher Demko stopped 39 of 42 shots in the win.

Vincent Trocheck (two goals), Artemi Panarin (one goal, one assists), and Alexis Lafrenière (two assists) all had multi-point games in the loss. They continue to be one of the best lines in the league; the rest of the lineup, not so much.

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Alex Nedeljkovic had another great game in net for Pittsburgh in their 4-1 win over Philadelphia. He stopped 36 of 37 shots faced, the fifth time in 12 starts he's faced at least 36 shots and he's yet to allow more than three goals in any of those games. His overall save percentage is up to .921 and he has eight wins in those 12 starts.

Drew O'Connor moved up to play with Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust and DOC had an assist, four shots, and a pair of hits. Malkin had a goal and an assist on four shots, two PIMs, and a hit. Malkin now has five goals, six assists, and 36 shots in his last 10 games.

Owen Tippett scored once on three shots, and his 13^th goal of the year keeps him on pace for his second straight 25-goal season with excellent peripherals. He has certainly turned into a fine offensive winger.

Carter Hart allowed four goals on 39 shots in the loss.

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Last week, one of my Ramblings discussed improvements in 5-on-5 scoring chance assists/60 minutes among forwards. It is a stat tracked over at AllThreeZones, and it measures which players are providing teammates with scoring chances. It is something that can project year to year and lead to more team goals. That seems important to the fantasy game.

For posterity, some important benchmarks:

• In 2022-23, the average SCA/60 rate of all defencemen with at least 100 tracked minutes (223 rearguards in the sample) was 1.24. A rate of at least 1.75 SCA/60 was necessary to be one standard deviation above average, or roughly the rate necessary to be a number-1 blue liner by this measure.
• So far in 2023-24, the average SCA/60 rate of all defencemen with at least 100 tracked minutes (181 in the sample) is 1.27. A rate over 1.95 SCA/60 was necessary to be one standard deviation above average, or roughly the rate of a number-1 blue liner.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in. Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise indicated.

The Top Five

It is an eclectic mix, of sorts, at the top:

The highest SCA/60 rate, by a country mile, belongs to Cale Makar. It isn't a surprise that he leads the NHL, but that no one else is really that close to him demonstrates his unbelievable offensive skill and helps contextualize his incredible production. There is also John Klingberg, who is now injured. Erik Karlsson seems to be making the transition to Pittsburgh just fine, too. It sucks that Shea Theodore is still injured as he was off to an incredible start but hasn't played since American Thanksgiving.

Of course, the name that really stands out is Pavel Mintyukov. Anaheim is much more dangerous with him on the ice than on the bench, both by this measure and by expected goals-for, and the power play is better with him on the ice, too. It has been a great half-season for the rookie and between him, Jamie Drysdale, and Olen Zellweger, this Ducks roster could have a plethora of high-end blue liners in 3-4 years.

The Next Five

After the top of the board, there are five more defencemen that are bunched together before a sizable drop between the 10^th and 11^th names on our list. The next five include two long-time elite fantasy defencemen, one budding superstar, one developing player, and one guy that I'm really struggling to understand how he got here:

Okay, we have to talk about Jamie Oleksiak. When I was looking at some of his recent seasons, this is a progression from him. His first year in Seattle saw him a little below average by SCA/60, his second season saw him in the 64^th percentile by this measure, or a high-end second-pair rate, and now he's one of the best in the league. Funny enough, Seattle's 5-on-5 goals/60 rate with Oleksiak on the ice is 3.0, and no other blue liner is over 2.8. Oleksiak is registering a point on just 26.7% of 5-on-5 goals scored with him on the ice, which is why his production isn't very high, but that could regress positively and lead to a good second half, especially in multi-cat formats. Something to ponder.

The guy that stands out here, after Oleksiak, is Jordan Harris. We need to see a lot more of this from him because his rookie year really didn't stand out in any way, but the same tracking site has him with good controlled zone entry rates/percentages this season as well. Montreal is even generating the second-highest rate of scoring chances off his entry of any of their blue liners (Mike Matheson is first). There are positive signs, but he needs to replicate something close to this in the second half, and then again next year, before getting too excited.

High-End But Not Elite

As mentioned, there's a sizable drop after the top-10 names, and the quartet that follows is interesting in its own right:

We have to start with Oliver Ekman-Larsson. After tailing off in his final few years in Arizona, and then never getting started in Vancouver, it has been a resurgence for a guy that looked Hall Of Fame-bound after nearly a decade of excellent play for the Coyotes. Lower ice time levels have seen his raw production falling off since the returns of Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad, but his points/60 rate is identical in the two splits, and he's even seen a rise in his points/60 at 5-on-5 alone. Whether he's finally healthy after so many injured seasons, is playing a system/style that fits him better, or likely a mixture of both, he has been a very pleasant fantasy surprise.

Up until his injury, Justin Faulk was pacing for roughly 40 points and doing so with almost no power play production. When he returns, if he can get a rebound in his shooting percentage as well more points with the man advantage, he could have a very good second-half in multi-cat formats.

Shout out to both Sean Durzi and Alex Pietrangelo. They are performing admirably while the former tries to replace Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun while the latter is trying to ease the team's offensive burden as they have a Theodore-sized hole on defence.

Montreal

Yes, I am a Montreal fan, but there is a reason for including a section just for them. There are 31 defencemen in the sample with at least 100 tracked minutes and an SCA/60 rate of at least 1.95 in 2023-24. Of those 31 defencemen, three of them are from the Canadiens: Harris, Justin Barron (2.08), and Arber Xhekaj (1.95). Only Montreal and Vegas (Theodore, Pietrangelo, Nicolas Hague) have at least three blue liners on that list. Coach Martin St. Louis is clearly encouraging the blue line to get very involved offensively. Something to keep in mind if (when) both Lane Huston and David Reinbacher show up.

The Risers

Ok, let's get to the guys who've added some more playmaking to their profile thus far.

Some of the top risers are guys we've already discussed – Harris, Theodore, Oleksiak, Durzi, Klingberg – while many others are guys who did very little in 2022-23 so any meaningful jump in 2023-24 have them near the top of the list: Brandon Carlo, Tyler Myers, Jonas Brodin, and Martin Fehervary, for example. There are two names worth discussing, though:

MacKenzie Weegar is interesting to see because he had a rough first season in Calgary, but this season has looked much closer to the peak of his Florida tenure. The reason he has a three-year high in points per game is a career-high shooting percentage and a career-high in power play points (in just 40 games played, mind you). All the same, it's good news for a bubble playoff team and great news for his fantasy managers.

Noah Hanifin, meanwhile, will see four straight seasons of improved SCA/60 if he keeps this up. It feels as though he's been around forever, but he doesn't turn 27 years old until later this month. He is a free agent after this season, and that makes him a trade deadline candidate. His points/game rate is similar to last year, but what could he do if he's traded to New Jersey or Dallas as they load up for a Cup run? Power play minutes remain an obstacle, but he's been a good offensive blue liner for Calgary, and they have a decision to make. Fantasy owners wait with bated breath.

The Decliners

The 10 defencemen in the sample with the largest declines from 2022-23 are also an eclectic mix:

It really hasn't been a good year for Shayne Gostisbehere; Detroit's lowest goals-for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 come with Gostisbehere on the ice. It's not all his fault, but when we see how much less often he's setting up teammates, that his assists/60 at 5-on-5 is a five-season low (minimum of 50 games played in the previous four campaigns) makes sense. Maybe there's good reason he's been losing ice time of late, and a tenuous top power play role (which he doesn't have right now) puts him on the edge of fantasy relevance.

Noah Dobson illustrates why this measure isn't an end-all, be-all for production. He is having the best offensive 5-on-5 season of his career, even when adjusting for minutes played, and good top-6 scoring his helping his fantasy value. Not much to worry about here.

One name that does raise some eyebrows is Bowen Byram. Not that a stumble from a young player isn't unheard of – Quinn Hughes didn't have a good 2022-23 season by many of these tracked measures and look at him now – but this is his worst season in three years, and he was healthy all year until very recently. It isn't something for dynasty owners to get up in arms about, though. Byram has skated more with Ryan Johansen and Miles Wood than he has Nathan MacKinnon, and Byram's numbers suffer when he's not on the ice with the superstar. I am willing to bet that a lack of depth scoring from Colorado is affecting Byram's game, as it did last year, and that is partially to blame. It'll be interesting to check back at the end of the season, though.