Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

The calendar may have flipped to 2024, but it's business as usual here at Goldipucks, as this edition looks at three d-men (Vince Dunn, Moritz Seider, and Jakob Chychrun), identifying which one is too hot, which is too cold, and who's performing at the level he should be. Here's your chance to start the new year on a high note by seeing if you can guess which falls into each category. All stats are through games played on Friday January 5th.

Vince Dunn (39 GP, 7 G, 26 A, 75 SOG, 23:20 TOI, 12 PPPts, 2:55 PP, 58.7% PP%)

Picked 56th overall in 2015, Dunn progressed well, with another year in juniors followed by one in the AHL, and then landing in the NHL to stay by age 21. As a rookie, he had 26 points but nine of those were PPPts. Then he dodged a sophomore slump by tallying 35 points in 78 games. From there he stalled, not reaching the point per every other game mark in his next two seasons with the Blues, nor in his first with the Kraken. For 2022-23 though, Dunn made good on the 400-game defenseman breakout threshold to the tune of 64 points. He hasn't eased off the gas pedal for 2023-24, and in fact posted the second best point total among all NHL defensemen in calendar year 2023. But is he for real, or just enjoying an extended hot streak? He's actually poised to do even better.

Among the first things that stands out when looking at Dunn's stats is he has yet to average two SOG per game in any campaign, even including this season and last. If this was a few years ago I'd have had serious concerns because, from 2000-01 to 2018-19, there were a total of 93 instances of a defenseman scoring at a 0.75 points per game rate (i.e., roughly 60 point pace) in 40+ games, and only 11 failed to average 2+ SOG per game, with all 11 being at least age 27+. But then Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox arrived on the scene, with Hughes posting 60+ point paces in his first two full seasons despite not firing an average of two SOG per game, while Fox has scored at a 70+ point pace twice despite not hitting the 2+ SOG rate, and is on pace to do so yet again this season. Although what Dunn is doing is still atypical, it's far less inherently suspect in view of what we've seen from the likes of Hughes and Fox.

Beyond that, things are very comparable to 2022-23, with Dunn's TOIs both overall and on the PP being nearly identical. But a major difference is Dunn already has 12 PPPts when last season his total was 15 in 81 games, which was a career best. On top of that, his IPPs are on track to well surpass his 2023-24 rates, with his overall IPP being 66.0% (versus 46.0% last season) and his IPP on the PP being 75.0% (versus 62.5% last season). It seems like something isn't adding up, as why isn't he scoring a lot more? The answer lies in the team's 5×5 scoring rate while Dunn is on the ice, which was an elevated 12.4% last season but for the 2023-24 campaign thus far is an unsustainably low 7.3%. The takeaway from all this data is Dunn is rock solid on the PP, and a points magnet despite being a defenseman. While his 5×5 team SH% was high last season, it's low enough for 2023-24 such that even if his IPPs drop – which they might not – he should still have a net gain in scoring.

That brings up a key point. Dunn is a productive defenseman on a team without a surplus of forward talent. Whereas other defensemen might play for teams which score more goals than the Kraken, they also have forwards that syphon away most of those points. Dunn falls into the same camp as a Roman Josi or 2022-23 Erik Karlsson in that they are unquestioned top scoring options from the blueline and don't/didn't have an excess of forwards to factor more into the scoring. The net result is Dunn should be able to continue to pile on points.

Dunn's other metrics also are positive. Just ten of his 26 assists (i.e., 38.5%) are secondary, which is the lowest percentage among any rearguard within the top 30 defensemen in assists. He should be getting even more assists in the normal course. Plus, his OZ% is actually a tad lower than it was in 2022-23, so there is no issue in that department.

Dunn also is scoring as well as he is despite only seven multi-point games. That might seem like a decent amount; however, the average number of multipoint games of those who are ahead of him in scoring is 11. So Dunn already is showing consistency, and it's likely only a matter of time before he piles on more multipoint games, especially given that he's the leading scorer for his team.

While no one is going to compare the Dunn of 2023-24 to the Erik Karlsson of 2022-23, the two are similar in that they carried a major offensive load for their teams. As a result, Dunn has IPPs which seem high but are likely sustainable. On top of that, his team 5×5 SH% is very low, and he should have more multipoint games by now. This all adds up to Dunn's 2023-24 thus far being TOO COLD, and a rating of 3.5, suggesting he could score at or near at 75 point pace over the rest of the season.

Moritz Seider (39 GP, 5 G, 17 A, 69 SOG, 22:13 TOI, 12 PPPts, 2:48 PP, 45.2% PP%)

Picked sixth overall in 2019, Seider was in the NHL by 2021 despite not exactly posting great numbers in his lone AHL campaign. He then made an instant NHL impact, with 50 points and winning the Calder. For 2022-23, he took a step back, with only 42 points. For 2023-24 thus far, although the Wings are vastly improved, a rising tide hasn't – at least as yet – lifted Seider's boat, as he's only managed score at a 46-point-pace, or between what he did as a rookie and last season. Did Seider peak early, or might we expect to see him ignite in the second half? Neither, as for now he likely will continue to score at or near his current rate.

There are a few downward trends when it comes to Seider. For one, his ice time is lower by nearly a minute from when he was a rookie, while his percentage of PK duty has risen with each season. His share of PP time has dropped from 61.8% as a rookie, to under 50% this season. Fortunate for him that hasn't meant a loss of overall PP time because the Wings are drawing more penalties; however, he's not on PP1, which is suboptimal. Or is it?

Seider still has 12 PPPts, tying him for 10th among d-men despite his PP TOI ranking him 18th. We have to remember real life hockey matters to teams, so Detroit sees Seider succeeding on PP2 and figure that balances their PP lines, and, as a result, Seider is a victim of his own PP success. Also, there's Shayne Gostisbehere, who's as one-dimensional as they come and is going to continue to run PP1, as Ghost ranks tied for 6th in PPPts among all rearguards due to having received the 5th most minutes. It's akin to what's happened in New Jersey with Luke Hughes pushing Dougie Hamilton to PP2. So Seider is still finding a way to succeed in this area, but is unlikely to improve.

The other reality is Detroit sees themselves as a team on the rise, with a chance to compete for a playoff spot. With Seider by far their best rearguard, and Ghost there to supply offense, that means Seider's deployment will suffer in terms of fantasy. Case in point – he has an OZ% of 39.0%, which is well down from the 45.1% it was when he was a rookie and even the 42.0% it was last season. To help put that in perspective, among 199 defensemen who've played 20+ games so far this season, his OZ ranks 14th lowest. Of those with an OZ% lower than his, only Jake Walman (39 point pace) is producing at a 30+ point pace. But here too Seider is bucking the odds because he's just that special of a player.

Seider's overall IPP is trending down for the second season in a row, standing at only 36.7% after being 45.0% as a rookie and 40.0% last season. The only reasonable conclusion one can draw is as Detroit has improved, Seider has taken on a more defensive-focused role plus is less likely to get points, what with more capable forwards on the roster. It's essentially a 180 as compared to Dunn's situation, and that is not good for Seider's near term fantasy fate. But with Detroit scoring more, it's likely a wash overall.

Seider's secondary assist percentage is again between 50 and 55% as it was his first two seasons. That is certainly not a high number for a d-man, but it's also not one that is likely to lead to more points in the normal course. On top of that, he's on pace to fail to average two SOG per game for the second straight season. But as noted above with respect to Dunn, that in and of itself doesn't prevent a d-man in this day and age from scoring, especially at the rate of Seider, since the data presented for Dunn was those scoring at a 60+ point pace. So Seider's SOG rate, while not ideal, is about the best he can do given his deployment.

Also, despite all this, Seider's 5×5 team shooting percentage is 10.5%. If this was another rearguard with similar metrics, I'd be concerned. Instead, to me this is proof of how great Seider is, as despite all these factors weighing against him, potent offense is happening while he's on the ice.

Long story short, Seider's numbers are not great and his deployment is not doing him – or his fantasy owners – any favors. But despite this he's still producing, in part because Detroit is better as a team but mostly due to his elite talent. Someday, Seider should become a 70 point d-man; but for now, his scoring rate is JUST RIGHT, because he truly is doing the best he possibly can given the cards he's being dealt, and thus he gets a rating of 5.5.

Jakob Chychrun (34 GP, 7 G, 18A, 80 SOG, 22:49 TOI, 10 PPPts, 2:49 PP, 43.6% PP%)

Unlike Dunn and Seider, Chychrun was in the NHL to stay the same season he was drafted as the 16th overall pick by Arizona. But early on what was notable were his inability to stay in the line-up, in his first four seasons topping at 63 games played and a scoring pace of 34. Since then, his health has remained an issue; but he scored at a 60-point pace in 2020-21 and a 56-point-pace in 2022-23. For 2023-24, he's at the 60-point level again. But can he succeed to the same extent with now, for nearly the first time all season, Ottawa's other top two d-men (Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson) also in the line-up? In a word, no.

Chychrun has thrived this season; but much of that was without Thomas Chabot in the line-up. Last season Chychrun had five points in the 11 games when he, Chabot, and Sanderson were in the line-up. This season in the games all three have played Chchrun's overall scoring is up but his PP usage has never even hit 40%, and that will take a toll in the long run.

Sticking with the PP, Chychrun, much like Seider, is making the most of his minutes, tied the 13th most PPPts among blueliners despite only the 26th highest PP TOI. But while Seider's PP IPP was 66.7%, or right at where it was his rookie season, Chychrun's is 90.9%, meaning he's nabbed a PPPt on ten of the 11 PPGs scored while he was on the ice. That is of course too high, especially since Ottawa has a very capable second unit, generally featuring Vladimir Tarasenko and Claude Giroux. Thus, while Chychrun twice has had a PP IPP over 70%, it's been 50.0% or less in all his other seasons, so clearly he's lucked into at least a few PPPts he shouldn't have tallied.

Beyond that, Chychrun, who's averaged at least three SOG in each of the past three seasons, is only at 2.4 for 2023-24. That's not a major drop, and might explain in part why his SH% is a bit elevated; however, considering the only times he's scored anywhere near the rate he's at now his SOG rate was 3+ per game, to see him doing so despite not being at or above that threshold does cast further doubt on his production rate being sustainable.

While I realize this might sound crazy considering Chuchrun is in his eighth full season, but let's not forget he's never topped 63 games in any of his prior seven. Who's to say how he will fare if somehow he plays all 82 games? Would it be crazy to think he'd slow due to a full season grind he's never previously experienced? It might be a stretch to factor that in, but I do think it's worth considering.

Also, when looking at Chychrun's TOIs, they don't reflect a downward trend, from 24:11 per game in Q1, to 21:25 in Q2, and 3:06 on the PP in Q1 versus 2:30 in Q2. And with Thomas Chabot back in the fold, we might not see Chychrun return to his Q1 heights. Yes, he was able to maintain his scoring rate in Q2 despite the reductions, but again that was without Chabot, who will likely eat into Chychrun's production.

Then, looking at the OZ% of Chabot, it's over 60%, while Chychrun's is under 50%, which is not very low, especially as compared to Seider, but which also is not so high as to do him added favors in terms of scoring boosts. On top of that, Chychrun's secondary assist percentage is 66.7%, and it was over 70% last season. Seeing that be the case in two of his most productive seasons is further cause for concern, as is the team's 10.8% team shooting percentage at 5×5 while Chychrun is on the ice, as that would be a career best, inasmuch as he's never previously surpassed the 10.0% mark.

It would be a great story just if Chychrun stayed healthy all season. But the chances of that might actually be higher than of him continuing to score at his current pace, what with a very elevated PP IPP, lower SOG total, and much of his productive scoring having occurred without Thomas Chabot in the line-up. Make no mistake, Chychrun is a very talented rearguard; however, given the situation he's in, he likely should be topping out at 50-55 points, meaning his 2023-24 thus far has been TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 8.25.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.