Looking Ahead: Perfetti’s Production; Hagel’s (Lack) of Power Play Role; Florida’s Upcoming Schedule
Andrew Santillo
2024-01-12
Welcome back everyone! There are decent NHL schedules for most clubs this week and next as we get closer and closer to the All-Star break as we're right in the thick of things now. Let's look to close out the week strong here.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Cole Perfetti, C/LW, Winnipeg Jets (Rostered in 11% of ESPN leagues, 59% Fantrax, 34% Yahoo) – One of problems that I run into here with this running on Fridays is I often have a player targeted earlier in the week that has roster numbers rise and rise throughout the week. In this case that is what is happening right now with Cole Perfetti.
When a club is on a heater like the Jets are right now, often times players on that roster get taken off of waivers quicker and that makes sense. Trends are your friends, but outside of the players on Winnipeg with higher roster numbers, Perfetti is someone I've had circled for about a week now. He has five goals in three games and is yet another player I liked in his draft year, only for Winnipeg to swipe him up and not the Hawks. Sigh…same with Brad Lambert.
For Perfetti right now there's a lot here to like, starting with him as a possible hitting the 30-goal scorer this season. I don't think that's out of reach here and that's even with lower TOI at times for him and his line. As far as power play, he's on the Winnipeg second unit but this is a Winnipeg club that has a pretty fair split in power play time at 47.3% for the top grouping and 39.3% for the second. I think that Perfetti could be an Immediate Fix as well as a Building Block but I'm writing him up as an Immediate Fix because I do think that this is an add to make sooner rather than later. For DFS, I've been playing a lot of Winnipeg lately which has been great. You should too, 10/10 would recommend…just make better decisions than I have with filler lines. Thanks, Pittsburgh Two, thanks a lot.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Pittsburgh Penguins (Rostered in 13% of ESPN leagues, 39% Fantrax, 21% Yahoo) – So I had this whole Building Block already set and ready to go here, but then the other night in my main league Tristian Jarry put up another Jarry-like performance in net, getting pulled on just three goals on seven shots on the 3rd against Washington. It's time we shed some light on Alex Nedeljkovic as a potential fantasy target.
Through drafts going sideways here recently, I've been saddled with Jarry as a back-up goaltender the past couple seasons and haven't exactly had a great time. I really felt like as far back as last season, that the Penguins were trying to get more reps in with Casey DeSmith down the stretch than they were with Jarry and that's worrisome. Jarry started the season with a couple strong outings but as of late he has fallen into the zone where most goaltenders are this season. And by that I mean, am I the only one who seems to think that every night most fantasy/DFS goaltenders are four goals on 24 shots, regardless of win/loss outcome?
For Nedeljkovic he has seen his fifth start in Pittsburgh's last six games and allowed just one goal in three of his last five starts, this all coming with an 8-3-2 record with a 2.66 GAA, and .916 Sv%. I think there's Building Block potential here because if the writing is on the wall here that Nedeljkovic could be Pitt's primary stater moving forward, then I want those starts in net. It won't be before long where the Pens will need to stack wins to stay in the Playoff hunt, and if Nedeljkovic gives them a better chance, then I can't see them going in a different direction.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Brandon Hagel, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning (Rostered in 70% of ESPN leagues, 33% Fantrax, 16% Yahoo) – Brandon Hagel? An Odd-Man Out, but how? We've had all sorts of Odd-Man out situations that have come up this season, but this is more a case of who is and is not on the Tampa Bay's first power play.
Let's chat Tampa Bay really quick. Tampa is one of the smart organizations in the league so when they do something or make a roster move, I tend to just lean that it will all work out. Right now, Brandon Hagel has flip-flopped between the Tampa top two lines, which is alright at even strength, but it's the power play time that I wish he got more of for fantasy. I don't think it’s crazy to think that he wouldn't be a point-per-game player if that were the case?
It’s a little tricky to work back on just who has been on the ice on the mad advantage for the Bolts but for Hagel, I was looking in particular at instances where he is on the ice with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point and that is only 10% of the time. Don't get me wrong here, this is still a player that I love for fantasy and am in no way suggesting you make a roster change if you have Hagel on your club right now, just think the offensive production would be even better if Tampa moved him up on the power play.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Tomas Hertl, C, San Jose Sharks (Rostered in 53% of ESPN leagues, 68%, Fantrax, 17% Yahoo) – Tomas Hertl. Buddy. Pal. I feel for ya my guy, and I think he's this week's Anchor just for the situation that he finds himself in right now on this Sharks team.
To be fair here, I watch a lot of San Jose. Not by choice or anything, they're just usually the last game on most given nights, and I have to say I don't think things are maybe as grim as they seem? Club just isn't scoring, and I want to say scoring is fairly important in the NHL. Just a little bit. For Hertl, I've rostered him in the past and thought that he was a decent fantasy player, but two things aren't occurring this season for him that have for him in prior seasons. First is what we touched on with the Sharks not really scoring and it shows for Hertl with just two points in his last 10 games played. Sure, that's sort of a product of the club that surrounds him, but the other is a little more surprising and that's his decline in hits/blocked shots. Even if in the past his point production slowed up, he was at least able to provide his physical game to help your fantasy club and with that missing, he may be more of an Anchor now than before.
As far as the off chance that he ultimately gets traded to a contender, I almost can't see it because of his current contract. I say almost because no contract is immovable, but I do think it's very unlikely that he's moved at the deadline this season. That unfortunately means that I don't think this is a player that could wind up in a much better situation come March, and for fantasy that's tough but my guess is if Hertl is on your roster now, he was probably a later pick for depth.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through January12th – January 24th
NY Rangers – Love the Rangers this going forward here as they will have a home-and-home this weekend against the Caps followed by a four-game schedule next week.
Florida – I mean, who doesn't love Florida right now as it is? Their top-six has been playing fantastic and next week they'll have home games against Anaheim, Minnesota (with their multitude of injuries), and Detroit, who have issues defensively.
Anaheim – I'm only putting the Ducks here as a Love 'Em because of their schedule oddity that they have next week. Anaheim will have games on Monday-Tuesday, then on Saturday-Sunday. I'm sure that could give you a way to get different with your fantasy lineup.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Columbus – Next week the Jackets will welcome in Vancouver who has the highest goals per game in the NHL, then New Jersey who has given them issues in the past. I can't say Columbus is a Love 'Em with their upcoming schedule.
Winnipeg – Make no mistake, I really like Winnipeg as a club, but for their upcoming schedule it’s lacking one thing – games. Winnipeg is in action only twice next week and that could either mean a great time to rest or a cooling off period so-to-speak.
Pittsburgh – With only two games next week for the Penguins it will mean finding spots to fill for fantasy for those rostering Penguins next week,
Friday, January 12th to Thursday, January 18th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers 4.21 – Away WSH VGK – Home WSH SEA |
Dallas 4.18 – Away CHI PHI – Home NSH LAK |
Minnesota 4.16 – TBL – Home PHI ARI NYI |
Montreal 4.04 – Away NJD OTT – Home EDM COL |
Washington 3.95 – Away NYR – Home NYR ANA STL |
Steer Clear |
Washington 1.92 – Away CAR – Home SEA |
Carolina 2 – Home PIT LAK |
Columbus 2.10 – Home SEA VAN |
Tampa Bay 2.10 – Home ANA MIN |
Winnipeg 2.10 – Home PHI NYI |
Saturday, January 13th to Thursday, January 19th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.36 – Home NJD ANA DET MIN |
NY Rangers 4.21 – Away WSH VGK – Home WSH SEA |
Chicago 4.14 – Away BUF – Home DAL SJS NYI |
Montreal 4.04 – Away NJD OTT – Home EDM COL |
New Jersey 4.02 – Away FLA BOS CBJ – Home MTL |
Steer Clear |
Pittsburgh 1.92 – Away CAR – Home SEA |
Tampa Bay 2.10 – Home ANA MIN |
Winnipeg 2.10 – Home PHI NYI |
Arizona 2.61 – Away MIN CGY VAN |
Nashville 2.70 – Away VGK LAK – Home NYI |
Sunday, January 14th to Saturday, January 20th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.09 – Away MTL OTT BOS PHI |
NY Rangers 4.06 – Away VGK LAK – Home WSH SEA |
New Jersey 4.06 – Away BOS CBJ – Home MTL DAL |
Washington 3.91 – Away NYR STL – Home ANA STL |
Montreal 3.84 – Away NJD OTT BOS – Home COL |
Steer Clear |
Winnipeg 1.89 – Away OTT – Home NYI |
Tampa Bay 1.99 – Away BUF – Home MIN |
Carolina 2.05 – Home LAK DET |
Columbus 2.10 – Home VAN NJD |
Pittsburgh 2.11 -Away VGK – Home SEA |
Monday, January 15th to Sunday, January 21st, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.35 – Away PHI – Home COL MTL WPG |
Colorado 4.09 – Away MTL OTT BOS PHI |
New Jersey 4.06 – Away BOS CBJ – Home MTL DAL |
NY Rangers 4.01 – Away VGK LAK ANA – Home SEA |
Anaheim 3.99 – Away FLA WSH SJS – Home NYR |
Steer Clear |
Winnipeg 1.89 – Away OTT – Home NYI |
Columbus 2.10 – Home VAN NJD |
Pittsburgh 2.11 – Away VGK – Home SEA |
Detroit 2.61 – Away FLA CAR – Home TBL |
Arizona 2.76 – Away CGY VAN – Home NSH |
Tuesday, January 16th to Monday, January 22nd, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.35 – Away PHI – Home COL MTL WPG |
New Jersey 4.25 – Away CBJ – Home MTL DAL VGK |
Los Angeles 4.06 – Away DAL – Home NSH NYR SJS |
Chicago 4.05 – Away BUF VAN – Home SJS NYI |
NY Rangers 4.01 – Away VGK LAK ANA – Home SEA |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 1.16 – Home NJD |
Pittsburgh 2.04 – Away VGK ARI |
Carolina 2.05 – Home DET MIN |
St. Louis 2.10 – Away NSH – Home WSH |
Buffalo 2.21 – Home CHI TBL |
Wednesday, January 17th to Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.54 – Away PHI MTL – Home MTL WPG |
New Jersey 4.25 – Away CBJ – Home MTL DAL VGK |
Tampa Bay 4.08 – Away BUF DET PHI – Home MIN |
Montreal 4 – Away NJD OTT BOS – Home OTT |
NY Rangers 3.99 – Away VGK LAK ANA SJS |
Steer Clear |
Winnipeg 1.85 – Away OTT BOS |
Colorado 1.95 – Away BOS PHI |
Seattle 2 – Away EDM – Home TOR |
Pittsburgh 2.04 – Away VGK ARI |
Carolina 2.05 – Home DET MIN |
Thursday, January 18th to Wednesday, January 24th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.54 – Away PHI MTL – Home MTL WPG |
Vancouver 4.52 – Home ARI TOR CHI STL |
Los Angeles 4.36 – Home NSH NYR SJS BUF |
Boston 4.10 – Home COL MTL WPG CAR |
Tampa Bay 4.08 – Away BUF DET PHI – Home MIN |
Steer Clear |
Pittsburgh 2.04 – Away VGK ARI |
Columbus 2.11 – Away EDM – NJD |
Detroit 2.65 – Away CAR – Home TBL DAL |
Chicago 2.79 – Away VAN SEA – Home NYI |
Winnipeg 2.80 – Away OTT BOS TOR |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.