Wild West: Revisiting Pre-Season Sleeper Picks

Grant Campbell

2024-01-15

Inspired by the Mid-Season Guide that just came out, I wanted to see how my pre-season sleeper picks from Dobber's Pool Guide are doing.

I'm curious to see what went right and what went wrong.

These are in alphabetical order, as they were in the guide.

Ivan Barbashev – Vegas

I stated that I thought that because of Barbashev’s playoff production, there was no reason he couldn't get back to challenging his career highs of 26 goals and 34 points with St. Louis in 2021-22.

In his first 43 games, he had nine goals and 10 assists, on pace for 36 points. This was a miss.  Barbashev benefitted from playing with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault for 66.9% of his minutes in the playoffs, but that's down to just 41.7% this season.

Connor Brown – Edmonton

I did issue a warning about Brown as injuries and a lack of power play time were expected concerns. I certainly didn't think that Brown would play 32 games for the Oilers and have just three assists to show for it. It wasn't for lack of linemates either, as he got a fairly long run playing with Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane early on.

Jonathan Drouin – Colorado

I had classified him as a boom-or-bust sleeper pick but with 24 points in his first 41 games, Drouin has been a solid addition, raising his points per game from 0.5 to 0.59. I had envisioned him being 0.8 or 0.3. He has 18 points in his past 22 games (0.82/g), so perhaps a boom is still in the cards.  

Anthony Duclair – San Jose

I thought that Duclair would get an opportunity to play in the top six and get some power play time. He has averaged 15:59 per game while being on the power play 45.6 percent of the time. He's had eight goals and eight assists in 39 games (0.41/g), but at least he's been healthy after only playing 20 games last year.

Cody Glass – Nashville

After putting up 22 points in his last 40 games of 2022-23, and finishing with 35 points in 75 games, I thought Glass would take the next step this year. He has, but unfortunately, those steps have been backwards. He has battled some injuries and has been unable to take advantage of some pretty good opportunities. Through 17 games, he has just one goal and one assist – a healthy scratch a few times in recent games. One would think he needs a fresh start.

Taylor Hall – Chicago

We will never know how Hall would have fared this year as his season was over after just 10 games. He had two goals and two assists in that span. He did play with Bedard 53.5 percent of the time at ES but not get enough games to see if there was any chemistry.

Thomas Harley – Dallas

My only caveat for Harley was that he would need to supplant Ryan Suter for ice time, which I wasn't sure would happen this year. Harley has taken off, with nine goals and 11 assists in 39 games (0.51/g), averaging 19:31. In his past 22 games, he has 15 points while averaging 21:05. He's had to elevate even more over the past five games, moving up to PP1 with Miro Heiskanen out of the lineup.

Barrett Hayton – Arizona

Hayton has been out of the Coyotes lineup since November 16th and has played just 16 games this year. With just two goals and two assists, it was a very disappointing start to the campaign. He's not expected back from his injury until sometime in February.

Nils Hoglander – Vancouver

I thought that Hoglander had the potential for 20 goals. Since he needed waivers to be sent to the AHL, I thought he was sure to see opportunity this year, be it in Vancouver or somewhere else. He's stuck with the Canucks and has 12 goals and 17 points in 41 games (0.41/g). His shooting percentage (22.2) is a little higher than you would like to see for sustainability from a bottom-six winger, so 20 goals might be a lofty goal. He's been good.

Alex Iafallo – Winnipeg

This was looking great after his first 15 games in Winnipeg, where he had 13 points. However, it has taken a turn since. He went 13 games without a point after that and now has 17 points in 42 games (0.4/g). I was hoping for some more chemistry but that fizzled out very early. Perhaps he gets some of that back in the second half.

Tyler Johnson – Chicago

Reading these now, it looks like I was throwing darts at any forward who might get a chance to play with Connor Bedard. Johnson has seen the ice with Bedard 2.7% at ES, so he didn't get the opportunity I hoped he would. He was injured on December 31st during his 35th game. He's produced nine goals and four assists and should be back in the lineup in the next week or so.

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Arthur Kaliyev – Los Angeles

I was hoping to see Kaliyev continue his goal-scoring progression this year. He had gone from 14 goals in 80 games as a rookie to 13 in 56 last year. In 34 games, he has six goals and eight assists (0.41/g). His point production has dipped a little from last year (0.5/g). The good news is that he is playing 13:35 per night compared to about 11 or 12 minutes in his first two seasons. He has just two goals and two assists in his past 17 games.

Mason Marchment – Dallas

I thought Marchment was more than capable of 20 goals and 30 assists after his disappointing first year with Dallas, where he had just 31 points in 68 games. He hasn't disappointed, posting 14 goals and 19 assists in 42 games, benefitting from the arrival of Matt Duchene. He has 22 points in his last 22 games.

Trevor Moore – Los Angeles

I was hoping that Moore could get back to the 17 goals and 32 assists that he had in 2021-22. He's surpassed that with 18 goals and 11 assists in 39 games (0.74/g). He has already set his career-high in goals at the age of 28 and is on pace for 61 points. He has faded a little after putting up 19 points in 19 games, posting 10 points in his past 20 games.

Cole Perfetti – Winnipeg

Perfetti was only a sleeper because he missed 31 games last year and ended up with 30 points in 51 games (0.59/g). In a keeper format, he was on 99% of radars but in seasonal pools, he might have slid down some lists. He's been good this year with 14 goals and 15 assists in 42 games (0.69/g) and just needs to stay healthy for 75 games or more.

Scott Perunovich – St. Louis

Sometimes we see a player and think, if they were just given the opportunity, they would run with it. I've thought about Perunovich for the past few years, but he's never been able to overcome some of his defensive deficiencies to play more than 12-14 minutes and stay in the NHL. This year, he has been given the opportunity. Through 26 games he has put up eight points (0.31/g). Since Craig Berube was let go, Perunovich has played nine games and has six points.

Taylor Raddysh – Chicago

Another dart was thrown to see if he would play with Connor Bedard and surprisingly, Raddysh was never even tried with Bedard at ES. After scoring an impressive 20 goals and 17 assists last year, Raddysh has had a very disappointing first 38 games, with just five goals and five assists. No sleeper here.

Yegor Sharangovich – Calgary

After looking at Sharangovich and his time in New Jersey, I thought he was fairly reliant on Jack Hughes to produce, and I assumed that he would need a player in Calgary to do the same. The opposite has been the case as Sharangovich has an IPP of 76.9 in Calgary, compared to around 65 in New Jersey. He has been driving play at ES for the Flames. He has 17 goals and 13 assists in 43 games (0.70/g) and has 12 goals and 20 points in his past 21 games.

Eeli Tolvanen – Seattle

Tolvanen has found a home with the Kraken and has been one of their better forwards after 42 games, posting 11 goals and 17 assists (0.67/g). His career-highs are 18 goals and 31 points, which he posted in 61 games last year.

Jakub Vrana – St. Louis

10 goals in his final 20 games of last season was a false advertisement for Vrana going forward. He has gone without a point in his last nine games with the Blues, has been a healthy scratch, and has even been sent to the AHL – which is where he is now. In 21 NHL games this year, he has just two goals and four assists.

As we can see, I had a mixed bag of success, with Sharangovich, Tolvanen, Perfetti, Moore, Marchment, Hoglander, Harley and Drouin.

Injuries cost us a true reckoning with Hall, Glass and Hayton.

I'm prepared to say that Brown, Iafallo, Johnson, Raddysh and Vrana were flops. The others not mentioned might need a full season before drawing a conclusion.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions, or players you'd like me to look at, please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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