Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team, keep 8, weekly H2H league with categories of G, A, PPPts,+/-, SOG, PIM, GWG, HIT, W, SV%, GAA and with starting line-ups of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G plus 5 bench, and with 55 Moves allowed for the Regular Season (reset to 8 for Playoffs), a GM has Juuse Saros, Devon Levi, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as their goalies. They're in first place but frustrated at the performance of the Buffalo goalies and wonder if it would be wise to drop one or both, but is concerned about the lack of better options as free agents, namely Casey DeSmith, John Gibson, Anthony Stolarz, Laurent Brossoit, Karel Vejmelka, and Ivan Prosvetov. The rest of their line-up consists of:

C – Hughes (C/LW), Mackinnon (C), Ek (C),
LW – Stutzle (LW), Raymond (LW/RW), Joshua (C/LW)
RW – Rantanen (RW), Giroux (C/RW). Bjorkstrand (RW), Mantha (RW)
D – Dahlin, Makar, Seider, L Hughes, Matheson, Faber

Before the season began, I predicted that Buffalo would make the playoffs despite no goalie who will both win 25+ games and have a GAA under 3.00. Well, the first part is looking iffy but the second has a chance of coming to fruition, since as I write this UPL and Levi are both below the ten-win mark and each has a GAA above 3.00. Let's just say I'm not surprised to see how things have unfolded.

But that's not a great crop of free agent netminders either. Gibson could be a wise grab, in hopes he gets traded. Or even if he doesn't, he's been playing better overall, albeit not by much as compared to the Buffalo pair. And while he's logged more starts, he doesn't have more wins, which is key since this league doesn't count SV, plus bad SV and/or GAA numbers hurt. Then there's Stolarz, who has great SV% and GAA numbers but only a half dozen wins.

Under normal circumstances I'd advocate for streaming the second goalie spot; however, there is the fact that a team can only make 55 moves before the playoffs. That's only a couple of moves per week, and it would not be wise to use them all on goalies. Even then, with the streaming choices available it might not be an upgrade.

In the end, if the team is in first place notwithstanding the performance of the Buffalo tandem, then is it wrong to just hold pat? I don't think UPL or Levi will do worse than they are now, and one could somehow catch fire and step up, although again I think that is a stretch. So I'd stand pat and hope the team's skaters will carry things and the Buffalo netminders won't do more harm than good.

Topic #2 – A GM who owns Jack Eichel and Zach Hyman has been offered Tim Stutzle and Joel Eriksson-Ek in trade. Skater categories are G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HITS. Should they accept?

For the time being, all four are entrenched within their teams' top six and PP1s. But whereas I feel that is always going to be the case with Eichel, Stutzle and Hyman, it's less certain when it comes to Eriksson-Ek, as after next season the Wild will be out of cap hell and likely will spend to bring in top line talent. Where that leaves Eriksson-Ek is unclear. In his favor, he's seen his scoring rate, SOG rate, and PPPts increase all increase in each of the past five seasons. Yet while his SOG rate and ice times have continued to rise for 2023-24, his scoring rate hasn't as yet, this despite a normal SH% and a high percentage of secondary assists, not to mention a fairly decent team shooting percentage of 10.2% at 5×5. His IPPs remain a source of concern too, as he is on pace for a fourth season where neither his overall IPP or IPP on the IPP will top 62%. That is not a good sign, such that even if he retains a spot in the top six and/or on PP1, he's not enough of a points magnet to likely see his scoring rise further.

On the other hand, Zach Hyman is showing 2022-23 was no fluke, as he's shooting even more and scoring even more, although likely due to an unsustainably high SH%. Still, that means he's likely "only" an 80-85 point player, which is still quite good. Yes, he doesn't hit nearly as much as Eriksson-Ek, who averages about two per game; however, the edges he holds in scoring and in PPPts likely more than offset that.

As for Eichel versus Stutzle, I'm not loving what I'm seeing from Stutzle this season, as he has not taken a scoring leap and he's hitting considerably less. Also, percentage-wise his share of PP minutes is down for the second season in a row. He also is stalled just below three SOG per game. Yes, his IPPs are both a bit down from their previously very solid levels, so chances are he's due to have tallied a few more points; however, I'm not as optimistic as I was after the end of last season that Stutzle will be a 100+ point player.  Still though, he's the youngest by far.

Regarding Eichel, the good news is he's very much "the guy" in Vegas, getting top billing at ES and on the PP. But he doesn't have a superb supporting cast, limiting his upside likely to 90 points if all goes well. He also barely hits, although he's the highest volume shooter of the four. He is six years older than Stutzle, which can't be ignored, nor can be the fact that Hyman is five years Eriksson-Ek's senior.

The age differences between the respective players is indeed meaningful; but in view of all the other factors this is not, in my mind, a deal worth making. This is especially the case because my rule is I don't accept a trade unless I see I'm the clear winner on paper. In this case, I'd hold Eichel and Hyman.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, keep 14 plus 4 rookies (<150 games played) and with categories of G (1), A (1), +/- (0.25), H (0.1), B(0.1), PIM (0.1), SOG (0.1), GWG (1), PPP (1), SHP (1),W (2), SO (3), GA (-0.5), OTL (1), SV (0.1), a GM has been offered their choice of Trevor Zegras or Matty Beniers for their Joseph Woll and a 1st round pick, with the other GM needing the pick because several of their previous "rookie" keepers will need to be full keepers next season and they're concerned about restocking their cupboard. The GM who owns Woll is in 4th place, and the GM offering Zegras or Beniers is in 2nd. Picks are a precious commodity in the league.

First off, after this was posted rumors began to circulate about Zegras possibly being on his way out of Anaheim. But then he got hurt again. Still, this is more a question about his long term value so we'll look at it from that perspective.

Focusing on Woll first, I like that he looked good amidst the pressure cooker environment of the playoffs, and he's been solid this season. But do you know how far back you have to go in order to find a Toronto goalie who played 50+ games and had a GAA under 2.60? Try 2002-03. And with William Nylander re-signing, that all but assures the team won't be able to upgrade its defense. As such, it likely means continued inflated GAAs for Leafs goalies. And volume-based stats are of concern due to the team's demonstrated lack of a workhorse in net, as only Frederik played 60+ games in a season since that 2002-23 campaign, albeit three times.

Although that makes me more inclined to part with Woll, a first round pick is a tough pill to swallow if indeed picks are of high value. After all, a first round pick could likely get the next Zegras or Beniers, albeit a few years behind in their development.

As for Zegras and Beniers, both are having very tough seasons. Beniers has an unsustainably low SH%; however, even if it was better he'd still be faring poorly. I don't like that he's yet to hit the 2.0+ SOG rate per game in any prior season, nor is he on pace to do so for 2023-24. Also, he won't get great ice time at ES or on the PP on Seattle no matter how well he plays, as they ice three lines with none getting true top billing. Could Beniers still shine? Of course; however, I don't like what I'm seeing or where he's stuck playing. As for Zegras, his SOG rate is fine, but he's just not getting any PPPts. That seems like unsustainable bad luck. Plus, because of injuries he's yet to be able to string together enough games to really find his groove. And if he does get traded, chances are it will be somewhere he could really thrive.

Still though, Woll plus a first round pick does seem steep. I'd be inclined to pass on the offer, unless it can be revised to swap in a less valuable pick or a player instead. Otherwise, keep Woll and hope he can step up, and use the first rounder to grab the next Zegras or Beniers.

Topic #4 – What is the outlook for Andrei Svechnikov in a points-only league? Is what we're seeing a sign of even better things to come? Can he stay healthy?

Readers of my columns know that I've felt Svech has been overhyped. And guess what – I still feel that way. Yes, as I write this he sits above a point per game and seemingly on his way to a career best and doesn't even turn 24 until March. But I'm still not buying it.

For one, he's somehow managing to score better while taking considerably fewer SOG per game and with a lower TOI. He's at nearly a PPPt per every other game despite a per game PP TOI that'd be the second lowest of his career. Also, many will point to him having recently strung together six multipoint games in a row, failing to realize he had a streak of five in 2021-22 and still finished at just a 73-point full season pace that campaign.

Sure, his SH% being a bit elevated can be justified by his lower SOG total, as it's likely he's being more selective about his shots. Also, just six of his assists are secondary, which no question is also a good sign. But his IPPs, both overall and on the PP, are above 72% (72.2% overall, 76.5% on the PP), this from someone whose career IPP averages prior to 2023-24 were 62.2% overall and 52.2% on the PP. Yes, his IPP overall had been rising the past two seasons, landing at 65.5% in 2022-23; however, it still seems like an unsustainable jump to be at 72.2%. And as for the PP, clearly he's in uncharted territory, such that he likely should have four fewer PPPts. Together these elevated IPP metrics help explain why his scoring is where it is, and why, despite his low secondary assist percentage, it likely won't be sustained.

Is it possible that Svech is only now just starting to come into his own? Never say never, but if we go back to 1990-91 and look at other wingers who, like him, had at least three instances of scoring at a rate between 0.85 and 1.0 points per game three or more times by age 22, we get four others: Jason Arnott, Patrik Laine, Patrick Kane, and Trevor Linden. Of them, Arnott and Linden never hit the point per game mark, while Laine looks like he might be in danger of having peaked early, and Kane of course became a star. But I wouldn't liken Kane to Svech, as in the case of Kane he likely only scored that low early on because the Blackhawks were not yet a very good team, whereas the Canes are already quite good. Plus, even if we factor in Kane, that's still two who never reached a point per game, and one who did but has since faltered.

Seeing that data makes me more confident that my early read on Svech is likely correct, namely that he probably won't find another gear and instead be a player who peaks with a scoring rate that's in the 70s. Given this, I'd be looking to trade him in a points only league now, while one of the other GMs might think he's just starting to blossom, when it is more likely that he's scoring at an unsustainable pace.

Topic #5 –In a 10 Team Keep 6, H2H – 1 win league with categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO and rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA, how would the following players be ranked: Tim Stutzle, Kirill Kaprizov, Mitch Marner, William Nylander? If the GM wants to try and land Cale Makar, who should he try not to trade, Stutle or Marner?

For the four forwards, Marner kind of is what he is, and that's a player who scores at a 90-100 point pace. If, however, he gets moved by Toronto, that rate could drop, as a rising tide does seem to be lifting his boat, particularly on the PP, where after having an IPP of 73.0% or higher in three of his first four seasons, his rate was between 62.5% and 66.7% in the past three, and is below 60% this season.

Kaprizov has not come close to matching his 2021-22 scoring rate; however, he's also never had anything remotely resembling a top tier talent to center his line. His IPPs and secondary assist rate are still very strong, such that once the Wild have escaped from cap hell in 2025, and they can bring in a truly talented center, Kaprizov will still be only 28 and ripe to put up some monster numbers again, perhaps even surpassing what he did in 2021-22.

Stutzle is the youngest of the four by far, but he too has taken a step back after what looked like a breakout. His IPP on the PP continues to fall, and he's actually being benefitted by a pretty high secondary assist rate. It seems more and more like he has talent but when surrounded by other talented players he has difficulty being a points magnet. Still, he's not that far removed from his 200 game breakout threshold and his SH% is roughly half his career rate, so he should be doing a good bit better.

Nylander's amazing 2023-24 has come with him sporting IPPs far and away above his norms. But even still, that would only take him down a notch or two, which might leave him comparable to Marner. The fact that he's seeing nearly two minutes more of ice time versus his career best also is a great sign and bodes well for him going forward.

My ranking for right now is Marner, Nylander, Kaprizov then Stutzle. But in two years I think Kaprizov will be first, with the other three very close, but Stutzle getting an edge due to his age.

As far as getting Makar, he's so valuable I'd let the other GM choose, as that might make them more inclined to do the deal. Rest assured you come out ahead regardless of who you trade.

Topic #6 – What is the outlook for Brock Faber for the rest of 2023-24 in a points only league?

Fun fact – Faber is on pace to average the highest TOI per game of any rookie d-man since at least 2000-01. I wouldn't have guessed that, and it's intriguing. The next question is what became of the others top rookie TOIers? Four (Toby Enstrom, Ryan Whitney, Drew Doughty, Duncan Keith) bested the 50 point mark at least once, another (Tyler Myers) nearly did as a rookie but things went downhill from there, and another (Filip Kuba) did hit the point per every other game mark, but only once, while two (Francois Beauchemin, Jonas Brodin) never really did any scoring, and the last (Owen Power) is still too young to know how he’ll pan out.

Although this is an impressive feat, it does not necessarily portend fantasy success. But we can see that Faber just seems to keep getting better, with all-important PP1 minutes being the latest feather in his cap. And despite all the minutes he's eating, his OZ% is nearly 50%, which is pretty decent, and should allow him to continue producing. His SOG per game rate is also on the rise, as he's had 2+ SOG in 12 of his past 14 games, including three with 4+ SOG.

His IPPs are a bit low, and that's of some concern considering the Wild forwards at this time are not exactly points magnets. Once the team emerges from cap hell in 2025, they will likely beef up their forward ranks with players who pile on the points. That should lead to more goals being scored but not necessarily more points for Faber unless he can find a way to factor into scoring.

I think Faber is the real deal, with the potential to be more like Doughty and Keith than not, as he seems like he has the makings of being a true #1 defenseman in every sense of the word. As for the rest of 2023-24, if he keeps seeing his minutes, SOG rate, and PP time increase, I could see him producing at a 45- to 50-point clip.

Topic #7 – In a keeper with skater categories of G(1.5), A(1.5), +/-(+1 or -1), has Quinn Hughes done enough this season to rank him above Cale Makar?

Hughes has taken things to a new level; but Makar is the closest thing to being unparalleled in fantasy in a long time. Hughes is shooting more, and still has room to up his SOG rate and even his PPPts too, as his PP IPP is on track to be below 70% for the first time since his sophomore campaign. Still, Vancouver is shooting an astronomical 15.3% at 5×5 with Hughes on the ice. I can't even use the word unsustainable to describe that, as the highest rate for any d-man in the past three seasons was 12.5%. So that number has to come down, and, in doing so, will more than offset any gains Hughes would stand to make from more SOG or his PP IPP returning to normal. Is Hughes a 100-point defenseman? Not a chance. I'd say he's a 90-point guy, tops.

Makar, however, is in a league entirely his own. He's well above a 100-point-pace despite being below his normal SH% and taking the ice for nearly two minutes less than last season. All his metrics check out as for real. He's superb, and made even better by his supporting cast, since he is a points magnet. Yes, his plus-minus has come back to earth, and that does matter in this league. But I've learned not to choose between two players on the basis of plus-minus, since it's a stat than can vary quite a bit even for elite players. Give me Makar here every day, no offense to Hughes.

Topic #8 – Who figures to tally the most points between now and the end of the regular season: Nico Hischier, Nikolaj Ehlers, or Carter Verhaeghe?

Whatever got into Hischier last season seems to have disappeared just as quickly, as he's not anywhere close to his nearly point per game of 2022-23 scoring pace despite a very inflated SH%. Yes, his IPPs are low for him; but even if they rose, that'd only perhaps offset the points lost as his SH% comes back to earth. And his SOG rate is back to the same 2.1-2.3 per game rate it had been every season until last year's now seemingly aberrational 3.1 per contest.

Ehlers has been above a point per game since his lackluster 11 points in 21 games in Q1. He even is making inroads into PP1, which for so many years had been beyond his grasp. All his metrics, from IPPs to secondary assist rate to offensive zone starting percentage, check out, plus if anything he could see his ice time improve, such that I'd expect him to score just under a point per game over the rest of 2023-24.

Verhaeghe somehow finds a way to continue to get better despite not commanding a lot of PP time. It's a combination of a high – but sustainable – SH%, and proven 70%+ overall IPP, even when alongside the best of the best on the Panthers. The issue is he still can't seem to find a way to thrive on the PP. Yes, Ehlers could be put back on PP2 at any time; however, Verhaeghe simply is not cut form a PP scoring cloth seemingly regardless of what unit on which he plays. And his ice time is stuck in neutral, such we can't realistically expect him to get additional points by taking the ice more. But then again, those who've bet against him in the past have found out that is a losing endeavor.

It's a close race between Ehlers and Verhaghe. The safer bet is Verhaeghe, but Ehlers might just break out this season, and in doing so outpoint Verhaeghe. If it was me, I'd go with Ehlers, as he seems like he's connecting all the dots this season and, just as importantly, it finally looks like Winnipeg is placing Ehlers in a true position to succeed, plus he still could get even more ice time, while Verhaeghe likely is already at his likely ceiling.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.