The 2024 Dobber Hockey Midseason Fantasy Guide is out now! It has second-half projections, prospect updates, prospects that could make an appearance down the stretch, players on the trading block, and a whole lot more. Help support what we do by pre-ordering a copy right here.

If what you're looking for isn't in the midseason guide, then maybe it can be a new feature on FrozenTools. We're adding new pieces all the time!

🚨NEW REPORT🚨

A supporter approached us asking if there is an alternative available for an NHL website goalie report that no longer works. We decided to build it ourselves.

Goalie Game Stats report 👇https://t.co/1ouxmonoPq

— Frozen Tools (@FrozenTools) January 16, 2024

*

I have been working on updating my Salary Cap Keeper League Rankings for the month of January should be out on the 25^th as usual), and I wanted to go over a bunch of players who I am revisiting from pre-season projections, and what they have done to this point.

Let's start with Josh Morrissey, whose bandwagon I did not get on at all last season. Well he just kept trucking along, and finished the 2022-2023 campaign with 76 points in 78 games. He has followed it up with a 62-point-pace thus far, and the underlying numbers all look super smooth. He should be able to continue clicking in the 60- to 70-point range for a few more seasons. Especially if Winnipeg continues to score like the top-seeded team in the standings that they currently are.

Two other interesting names high up the cap rankings list are Alex Tuch and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who are both on long-term, extremely team-friendly deals. Tuch seems to be settling into that same points range as Morrissey, which isn't as spectacular for a right winger, especially considering the shot and hit rates are pretty similar too. Solid, but unspectacular at this point, though still someone you should be very comfortable owning assuming you didn't spend a top-50 asset acquiring him.

A top-50 asset like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for example, who may be turning 31 this year, but is picking up close to where he left off from last year's 100-point season. His shooting percentage and PPIPP have normalized, so this 80-point range seems to be more in line with what we should expect moving forward. Still excellent, but hopefully you sold-high in the offseason.

Brayden Point is another player who has dropped similarly to RNH, from the 100-point range to a point-per-game pace. Point has previous history of putting up a 95-point-season, but that appears to be his ultimate upside, when he has everything fall his way, and shoots at 22% on the season. This year he's back down to his much more consistent 17% shooting percentage, and around his usual 80-point-pace. That's likely what we can expect for the next few years, because you can't bank on those big years popping up every five seasons, you just have to ride them when they come.

Also of note, teammate Steven Stamkos is not going to be traded before the deadline this year, as GM Julien BriseBois ruled it out yesterday – and we have never had an NHL GM break a promise before. In all seriousness, it was always unlikely he was dealt, and will probably sign a reasonable deal with the Bolts before he hits free agency.

Speaking of teammates, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and now Erik Karlsson are all providing solid value. Crosby especially is having one of his best scoring seasons in recent memory, despite this being his age-36 season. Letang and Karlsson are both running on hot streaks right now which have brought them to about their expected value around the 60-point threshold, which falls within their norms and should continue. It was unlikely we were going to get anywhere close to 100 points from Karlsson again, but at least his plus-minus is miles better than last year, and the other peripherals really haven't fallen off.

It's Evgeni Malkin on the Pens that we might have to worry about. The 37-year-old is on pace for his lowest production since the shortened 2021 season (which was also the lowest of his career), even though all of his underlying numbers look normal. This is likely the start of the decline for one of the biggest stars of the game over the last two decades, and while there may be some peaks and valleys as opposed to a gentle curve, we can't expect point-per-game production from Malkin any longer.

Other top players in their late 30s have kept themselves relevant with good deployment and young linemates like Claude Giroux and Joe Pavelski. Crosby certainly has the skills and intelligence to keep himself afloat like them. As for when Pavelski and Giroux will drop off… I'm not sure that they ever will completely. They can keep a fantasy relevant 60+ point-pace almost indefinitely, which means it's just the impending retirement that will stop them.

Two other Dallas Stars that I wanted to mention are Mason Marchment and Wyatt Johnston. Johnston was an OHL sensation in his D+1 year, and has transferred well to the NHL, but doesn't have the same fanfare around him anymore. He's only on pace for a 50-point season, and still a full year away from his breakout threshold. Draft him next fall and hold onto him through the season. That strong second half after he passes his BT is going to be a league-winner in some cases, especially if the recent run alongside Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson continues (he had two points and four shots while lining up with them last night.

Meanwhile, Mason Marchment might be flying even more under the radar than Johnston, with his 63-point-pace while playing second-line minutes with the rejuvenated pair of Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin. He's also fitting in well in Dallas, though I'm more worried about him than Johnston, as his underlying numbers are due for a bit of regression. He should be closer to a 50-point-pace in the second half rather than 60.

Quick note on Jakub Vrana – Bah! He got sent down again. Hopefully he gets a coach in October that wants to play him with someone better than Johnny Stonehands and Jimmy Lunchpail.

There were also a whole ton of rookies to re-evaluate, and while the mid-season guide gets into a lot of them here, I think there are four main groups to sort most of them into, based on whether they met expectations in the first half, and whether they will then meet expectations in the second half.

Now, the top-tier guys like Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, Luke Hughes, and Brock Faber all met and exceeded expectations for what they could do so early in their careers. Fantilli has been playing a top-line centre role in many games, and has a 47-point pace to show for it. He has upped his rate from his Q1 numbers of 10 in 23 to 15 in 21 for Q2. Carlsson has been similarly successful, albeit in a limited number of games due to injury and load management. He is playing over 18 minutes per game with top scorers though, but his on ice shooting percentage is half of what it should be. The numbers should tick up in the second half.

On defence, Luke Hughes was the big name at the start of the season, and has been putting up similar fantasy numbers to Miro Heiskanen – if Heiskanen has a ton of value in your league (and he should), then Hughes is right up there as well. The flavour of the month though has to be Brock Faber, who has taken over a lot of Calder discourse, and he may even get a couple of Norris mentions when the season is through. He has been spectacular in all corners of the ice, and in Q2 has been getting some heavy power play usage as well which really makes him fantasy relevant. Once Minnesota is healthy on the back end that may recede, but Faber and Hughes will both be solid owns all year.

The rest of the group can be sorted into three quick headings:

Surprised early on and should continue to succeed:

Connor Zary, Dmitry Voronkov, Pavel Minyukov

Strong in the first half but may tail off to some degree (or already have):

Logan Cooley, Tyson Foerster, Bobby Brink

Struggled in the first half but should do better to close out the year:

Devon Levi (assuming he isn't demoted again), Matthew Knies, Luke Evangelista, Simon Nemec (only here because he was called up late)

Overall, lots of fun rookies this year. The next few years should be no different.

*

In the Darcy Kuemper vs John Gibson goalie battle, Kuemper earned the shutout win on 24 saves, while Gibson allowed one goal on 27 shots. Both are very volatile game to game, and broke cold streaks with last night's game. Could be a decent time to buy in on either one if you are in need of some volume.  

*

Last night's tilt of Colorado vs Ottawa went about how you would expect for a game where the combined NHL experience for the goalies was 25 games, with 23-year-olds Mads Sogaard and Justus Annunen making their season debuts. While the futures are bright for the pair, especially the six-foot-seven Sogaard, they allowed a combined 10 goals in the game. For now they are just players to stream in the right opportunity – and your first game of the season against Colorado? That's not it.

Tough to blame all of it on the goalie though.

Senators are allowing an NHL-worst 4.46 goals per game since Jacques Martin took over as head coach

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) January 17, 2024

Mikko Rantanen scored twice, Nathan MacKinnon added two assists, while Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux recorded three assists each. Tkachuk is notably about to hit his breakout threshold, and someday will end up with a season where his shooting percentage jumps above its current 10% ceiling, and when it does he's going to be the most valuable player to own in fantasy that season.

Great to see Sam Girard succeeding too. I picked him up in one league a few days ago, and have gotten four assists through two games thus far, to go with some solid peripherals. He's 31% owned on Fantrax, and only six percent on Yahoo.

*

As with Girard, it was also nice to see a goal from Kaapo Kakko last night – his first point since returning from a knee injury on Sunday. Everything just seems to be going smoothly for the Rangers lately. Enjoy that while it lasts.

*

Back to the goalies, Jacob Markstrom has a minor injury, and so Dan Vladar got his 14^th start of the season. He has been less than inspiring this season though, so we may get a few more Wolf sightings before Markstrom returns.

The team was also without Jonathan Huberdeau (illness), and we'll see how that affects his recent hot streak of six points in five games.

*

Anthony Duclair #SJSharks

Contrary to a previous report, Duclair's absence from the lineup Tuesday against Chicago is not injury-related, Max Miller of The Hockey News reports.https://t.co/s1CrCNvF6i

— Dobber Sports News (@DobberNews) January 17, 2024

Let the rumours on Anthony Duclair begin… He could see a big stock jump with a move. Especially if it's somewhere with some high-octane forwards like Colorado or Vegas as fill-ins for Valeri Nichushkin or Jack Eichel.

Mikael Granlund also left the game favouring his shoulder, so the Sharks are getting even thinner up front than they have been already this year.

*

As a fan, some of the best things about retirement ceremonies are the stories and personalities that come out as part of it.

Erik Cole has a story for every occasion 😂 pic.twitter.com/6HWuVmNHlk

— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) January 16, 2024

*

See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.