This week on Frozen Tool Forensics we are going to try a new way to look at goalies. Essentially we are going to be tracking down some goalie start numbers and see if we can find a way to run a report or a series of reports to give us an idea of who is taking over or losing out on the top job in their respective crease. For fantasy purposes a goalie who plays is usually better than a goalie who doesn't. Keeping an eye on which goalies are gaining/losing time in the crease then is a valuable piece of information.

The idea here, similar to last week's article about time on ice and deployment, is to compare two periods of time and see if we can see a difference in usage. In some ways goalies are a lot more clear-cut. A goalie either plays or doesn't. It isn't like with skaters who might play, but for less time, or on a worse line. The challenge with goalies is that we don't have a clean data set that will tell us something like games played as a percent of the total team games for the league. It is pretty easy to spot check in a game log view, but we don't yet have it as a report.

For today, we are going to look at a few specific time periods and compare the total number of games played in each set by goalie. This won't be perfect as the teams might have had different numbers of games during that time period, so we will be using player profiles and game log pages specifically to get further details on the highlighted goalies.

In terms of specifics, we are looking at goalies over the last three weeks (so end of December through January), and then the first three weeks of December. The data was pulled mid-week so there may be some slight variations in overall numbers, but the trends and patterns should be pretty consistent.

Looking at the table below we have basic player and team information and then a set of stats from January. From left to right we have the total number of games played, goals against average, save percentage, quality start number, and quality start percentage. We then move into the December time frame where we have December games played and quality start percentage. Finally we have just the raw difference in games played.

Name	Team	GP	GAA	SV%	QS	QS%	Dec GP	DEC QS%	Δ GP
MARC-ANDRE FLEURY	MIN	9	2.66	0.904	2	22.2	3	66.7	6
JEREMY SWAYMAN	BOS	8	2.68	0.908	4	50	3	66.7	5
ILYA SOROKIN	NYI	11	3.38	0.9	6	54.5	6	50	5
NICO DAWS	NJ	5	2.63	0.922	3	60	0	NA	5
JACOB MARKSTROM	CGY	7	2.17	0.932	6	85.7	3	66.7	4

A big part of this list has to do with a spate of injuries that has taken place over this time period. Marc-Andre Fleury and Jeremy Swayman have seen increased duties because of injuries to Filip Gustavsson and Linus Ullmark. Both are now back, so we should expect those roles to return to pre-injury status. Ilya Sorokin had been pushed for starts by the excellent play of Semyon Varlamov through some of the first stretch of this reporting, but Varlamov has been week-to-week since the end of December giving more starts to Sorokin. Sorokin should carry the volume going forward and I would be a little bit less concerned about Varlamov's return than either Gustavsson's or Ullmark's return for the value of the other goaltender. And finally, Jacob Markstrom missed a bit of time in the first reporting period because of a broken finger, so it makes sense that he saw more starts during the second portion. He is now injured again, so Dan Vladar has gotten a few starts. Given his history of inconsistency I would keep an eye on recent callup Dustin Wolf if he gets an opportunity during Markstrom's absence.

That brings us to Nico Daws. He was recalled to the team on December 27, got into a game as injury relief, briefly alternated starts before getting red hot and posting three consecutive starts from January 13 to January 17. Daws has had brief flashes of relevance before, but has never had a long and sustained run. The Devils goaltending has been in shambles for much of the season, so if he can be even close to decent, Daws has a real shot at taking over starting duties for what should be a good team if they can ever get healthy.

Name	Team	GP	GAA	SV%	QS	QS%	Dec GP	QS%	Δ GP
FILIP GUSTAVSSON	MIN	3	5.22	0.838	0	0	7	57.1	-4
PYOTR KOCHETKOV	CAR	5	2.19	0.919	3	60	8	62.5	-3
JAMES REIMER	DET	2	4.02	0.869	1	50	5	0	-3
CHARLIE LINDGREN	WSH	3	1.92	0.934	2	66.7	6	66.7	-3
JIRI PATERA	VGK	1	3	0.914	1	100	4	25	-3

This is the list of folks who have lost time between the two periods.

Gustavsson and Pyotr Kochetkov don't need a ton of ink as both lost out on games because of injuries. Kotchekov going down does mean we need to talk about Antti Raanta. Maybe this is the time where Raanta holds down the fort, but I have a hard time believing it. The early returns aren't terrible with a good game on January 13, before a bit of a dud on the 15th versus LA. He is an option for sure and might be Carolina's only option for a minute, but I would think twice before relying on him.

James Reimer's loss of games is really just giving us an opportunity to talk about Alex Lyon. The guy has just been cruising since the team went on their trip to Europe. He was briefly hurt in December, which is why Reimer's games played numbers were a little increased in December, but this is Lyon's net for sure. I suppose there might be a question when Ville Husso comes back, but it isn't like Husso was performing well at the time he got hurt, so Detroit will likely just stick with the hot hand.

Charlie Lindgren is another mirage here. After all but stealing the job in Washington from Darcy Kuemper, he got hurt at the end of December. He returned to action on January 12 to play the back-to-backs on the 12th and the 13th. He did not get the game on the 16th which was a shutout to Kuemper (but is in the net again on the 18th, which the reader will know the result of) so this situation is not entirely decided, but Lindgren has pushed Kuemper once already this season and seems in a great position to do it again.

Jiri Patera got a few games during this window because of injuries to Logan Thompson and Adin Hill. Thompson is back and Hill is supposed to be back soon so Petera's relevance has likely passed.

As a bonus I also wanted to flag a few players who didn't necessarily pop up in this split time period review.

Joey Daccord: there isn't a ton new to say, he has been on fire since Philipp Grubauer went down to injury. His last couple games haven't been quite as successful and he doesn't have a long track record at the NHL, so definitely keep an eye on him, but anyone who grabbed him early on has certainly been loving the results.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is on quite the hot run right now. After battling for the starts with Devon Levi (and Eric Comrie at points) UPL got four of five starts between January 6 and 15 with four wins and four quality starts.

Samuel Ersson appears to be stealing starts from Carter Hart, and has been doing so for a bit of time now. Ersson got a couple of extra games at the end of December because of a health issue for Carter Hart so he didn't flag with the split view here, but he has been essentially at least alternating starts since the middle of December.

Finally, given we hit on goalies in various sections above, here is a quick summary of new (ish) goalies on the up and up recently.

Joey Daccord

Alex Lyon

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Nico Daws

Charlie Lindgren

Samuel Ersson

That is all for this week.

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