Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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Today's article is inspired by Edmonton prospect Xavier Bourgault, whose scoring has completely fallen off a cliff this year as he continues his transition from junior to pro hockey in the American Hockey League. As I wrote last week, he has taken a serious step back so far in 2023-24 after posting a decent AHL rookie campaign the year before (34 points in 62 games) and piling up 56 goals in his final 72 QMJHL games before that.

Bourgault is no longer an AHL rookie, however, and this week we are going to focus only on first-year players. While everyone transitions differently to the pro game—some excel immediately (i.e. Logan Stankoven), others take a year or two to get going (i.e. Rory Kerins), and some never fully translate their junior success or make the final push to the NHL (i.e. Mark Jankowski)—if you own a prospect on this list, consider this a heads up to check in on their value and make sure you are still confident in them moving forward.

At the end, I will also highlight a few surprise names near the top of the AHL rookie scoring lead.

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The Red Wings Trio

The Red Wings' AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins, are sitting in the bottom third of the league standings in 2023-24. While the Griffins boast some high-end, NHL-ready pieces like Jonatan Berggren and Simon Edvinsson, they also have several rookies on the roster, namely Amadeus Lombardi, Marco Kasper, and William Wallinder.

Let's start with Lombardi, 20, the least well-known of the three. I featured him in an article last summer that highlighted standouts from Mitch Brown's CHL & USHL tracking data because he was one of the best playmakers in the entire data set. He finished 2nd in Offense Rating (to Connor Bedard), 2nd in Offensive Zone Passer Rating, and 4th in Expected Primary Points. These metrics were from his 2022-23 OHL season in which he finished third in scoring league-wide with 102 points in only 67 games—one of only three players to crack the century mark that year.

The tracking data assures us that he wasn't riding anyone's coattails and coasting on a boatload of secondary assists. He was a high-end play-driving playmaker, and his success as an overaged former 4th round pick prompted a series of articles and videos about the Red Wings' hidden gem. He also had no problem finishing: his 45 goals were good for 6th in the league, right behind Winnipeg's Colby Barlow.

As you might expect, however, stat-driven prospect models have never been high on Lombardi because they so heavily consider a player's age. Because he was yet another casualty of the lost OHL Covid season and was thus drafted a year late, he does not have very many historical comparables: Jimmy Vesey and Nic Dowd are the only players that look like him in terms of career trajectory who have exceeded 200 games in the NHL.

His rookie season in the AHL to date further clouds the picture: he currently has 12 points in 33 games, 14th on the team. Of course, he is playing down the line-up instead of being featured in a top-line role like he was in junior. But regardless of role, not much stands out here in a positive way—except maybe that his +1 plus/minus rating is in the upper half of the team, which speaks to the Griffins' rough season.

Most concerning is that he is not really shooting the puck. He has only taken 36 shots in 33 games so far. Even if his primary skill is playmaking, he needs his shot to be a respectable threat in order to create space for his teammates. Hopefully his stats will pick up as his role increases. He is seeing some power play time (four PPP) but is not consistently featured on the top unit. Lombardi is a wait-and-see situation for now, but his NHL future is more likely in the bottom-six at this point than in a scoring role, which would make him tough to roster in fantasy.

Moving over to Lombardi's higher-profile teammate, Marco Kasper, 19, was not taken eighth overall by the Wings in 2022 for his high-octane offense. He projects as a super-physical, utility-knife type who can play the bumper slot on the PP and create chaos in the opposing crease. He crossed over to the AHL this year after playing in the SHL for his D0 and D+1 campaigns (34 points in 98 games). One advantage he has over Lombardi, on top of being younger and having a better pedigree, is that he now has three years of professional experience under his belt—pretty damn impressive for a teenager.

Still, looking into the future, he is going to need to score at least 50 points in the NHL to make him rosterable in most fantasy formats, even if he hits everything that moves and racks up penalty minutes. His 16 points in 35 AHL games so far does not inspire a ton of confidence. Historical comparables for Kasper that have forged NHL careers include Rickard Rakell, Joonas Donskoi, Travis Zajac, R.J. Umberger—all middle-sixers who could play on the top line when needed.

Rakell would be the most exciting outcome were Kasper to emulate his career trajectory. Rakell steadily improved his point-per-game pace over his first five NHL seasons, which is an excellent sign, peaking at a 73-point pace with Anaheim in 2017-18. Since then, however, he has regressed and plateaued, evening out as a 50-point player who takes a lot of shots (+2.5/game) and adds a pleasing number of hits (+1.3/game). In my eyes, that would be a best-case scenario for Kasper.

Finally, the third Griffins' rookie who has statistically underwhelmed in 2023-24: William Wallinder. While I am less concerned about a 21-year-old defender putting up points right away, his six points in 33 games this year has to be considered a step back after he put up a Nils Lundkvist-like 26 points in 50 SHL games last year. For reference, future teammate Mo Seider put up 28 points in 41 games in that same league—though he was younger at the time.

Wallinder is a huge (6-4) guy who can skate better than most. Elite Prospects gave his skating a very impressive 7.5 rating back in 2020 when he was drafted, and that remains his stand-out skill a few years later. His progression is reminiscent of Gustav Forsling, who has become a core piece of Florida's back end, and I feel that Wallinder's NHL future is all but assured.

His eventual offensive upside and fantasy value remain open questions, however. Given that he likely qualifies for a 400-game breakout threshold as a larger player, I would recommend exploring trade options for him. If you can find another manager who is hot and heavy for the Yzerplan, it might be best to let them sit on Wallinder for the next 5+ years while you pursue more NHL-ready assets.

The Matthews

Matthew Maggio (NYI) and Matthew Seminoff (DAL) both graduated to the AHL this year after impressive junior careers. As somewhat undersized (both 5-11) former 5th- and 6th-round picks respectively, both also have to be considered long shots to make and excel in the NHL. And their AHL careers have certainly not kicked off with a bang, which is not helping matters.

Maggio is fresh off an OHL-leading 111 points in 66-games season. That included a whopping 54 goals, which also led the league. Most NHL equivalency models agree that the OHL has the highest quality of competition in the CHL, so I usually give a slight value boost to prospects like Maggio who excel in the OHL. However, his production came as an overager, which is a pretty hefty grain of salt to take that with.

Back in February, Dobber Prospects' Graham Montgomery wrote "If his scoring can translate to the pros, he may be a guy to keep an eye on," but unfortunately that hasn't happened yet. Eight points in 29 games is simply not going to cut it. He is playing for Bridgeport, of course, the second-worst team in the AHL this year, and even higher-profile prospects like William Dufour are struggling to score on this team.

But whichever way you slice it, Maggio's value has taken a pretty serious dip this year. Time will tell if it will be able to recover.

As for Seminoff, I can't help but wonder if his big D+1 campaign with Kamloops was less about his individual skill and more about playing beside one of the most dynamic prospects in the game, Logan Stankoven (DAL). If he makes the NHL, Seminoff is likely destined for a bottom- or maybe middle-six role. A best-case scenario would probably be a player like J.G. Pageau, who can put up 40+ points with a solid number of shots and hits while playing a key defensive role for his team.

The small amount of tracking data we have from Seminoff's draft year (via Mitch Brown) suggests that he has the hockey sense and defensive capability to support that projection.

There looks to be an NHL player here, but I have serious doubts that he will be that fantasy-worthy—at least not for a good while.

Other Struggling AHL Rookies

Jacob Melanson (SEA), RW

10 points in 35 AHL games after scoring 99 points in 59 QMJHL games last year.

Matvei Petrov (EDM), RW

3 points in 21 AHL games after scoring 93 points in 65 OHL games last year.

Carson Lambos (MIN), D

8 points in 35 AHL games after scoring 48 in 61 WHL games last year.

Corson Ceulemens (CBJ), D

5 points in 25 AHL games after scoring 23 in 33 NCAA games last year.

Aidan McDonagh (VAN), LW

9 points in 28 AHL games after scoring 38 in 34 NCAA games last year.

Chase Wheatcroft (DAL), C

7 points in 22 AHL games after scoring 107 in 68 WHL games last year.

Under-the-Radar AHL Rookies Who Are Excelling

Xavier Parent (NJD), C/LW

28 points in 35 AHL games after scoring 51 points in 50 ECHL games last year and 106 in 65 QMJHL games the year before. Former Sherbrooke captain.

John Farinacci (BOS), C

27 points in 40 AHL games after scoring 20 in 19 NCAA games last year as Harvard's captain.

Logan Morrison (SEA), C

25 points in 37 AHL games after scoring 94 in 66 OHL games last year. This guy just continues to score

Rory Kerins (CGY), C

22 points in 28 AHL games after scoring 37 in 38 ECHL games last year and 118 in 67 OHL games the year before. He is currently tied with Shane Wright (SEA) for 15th overall amongst AHL rookies in points-per-game.

Chaz Lucius (WPG), C

13 points in 17 AHL games after scoring 15 in 6 WHL games last year. Injuries continue to hamper his high-end skill/projection.

Ryan Tverberg (TOR), C/RW

18 points in 18 AHL games after 30 in 35 NCAA games last year.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.