Frozen Tool Forensics: Peripheral Category Producers in Dahlin, Seider, Letang, Weegar, and More

Chris Kane

2024-01-26

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics we are shifting gears a bit and digging into peripheral categories, specifically for defense. We did this back in November so are going to be taking a look at anything that has changed since then. For the purposes of this article, we are going to mainly focus on hits, blocks, and shots (not penalty minutes or plus/minus).

In my leagues that count peripheral categories I like my bottom defense to be strong peripheral contributors. It isn't too difficult to find a free agent defenseman who contributes hits, or blocks throughout the season or to boost production in any given week with an add who can focus on one of those categories, but finding someone who consistently contributes across the board can be a challenge.

In order to review this, I am pulling data from the Multi-Cat report. This report is great because it offers both total and per game stats as well as some combined stat categories. More specifically I pulled a custom date range from the Muli-Cat report because I am looking at just the data since November 16 (but as per usual given the writing time the data will not include games that were played on Thursday evening).

The first group we are going to look at is players who are top contributors across the board. I am not looking for folks to excel in one category, but who are excellent in multiple. My standard for this is usually two or more stats per game in each category. We also will be looking at hits and blocks, but what really seals the deal for this group is the fact that they also shoot. I find adding that third category really sets apart players who are likely a season hold from those who can often be cycled out. It is usually a small group of defensemen who can meet this standard. Over the first time period that list contained exactly two names Darnell Nurse, and Jacob Trouba.

Since November 16th that list has dropped to just one. Rasmus Dahlin

NamePosTeamGPSOGHitsBlocks
RASMUS DAHLINDBUF303.421.93

He is hitting, blocking, and shooting at MVP levels, plus has a 74-point pace over that time period. Dahlin did not make any of our lists for the first part of the year so this is certainly a development that bears watching. His shot rates are usually solid, but he doesn't really have a career history of hitting or blocking more than one and a half times per game. It is hard to pin-point from the reports and game logs what might be different for him. His overall deployment is essentially the same as 22-23, but he is hitting, blocking, and shooting more than he has ever done in his career. For blocks at least there is sort of a steady progression, so perhaps he is just better at being in position and getting into shooting lanes, but his hit number bounces around a bit so doesn't provide too much additional information about why we are seeing a jump now.

As far as our previous champions are concerned, Nurse's hit rate has fallen off quite a bit and is now essentially the lowest of his career. That coincides with a drop in shot rates and a drop in overall time on ice. His block rate is up though so there is still some value there. Trouba has been taking fewer shots, but as we will see in the next table, Trouba is certainly still quite close to hitting this elite mark.

My next group is the pretty great but not-quite-elite category. Instead of putting up two plus stats in each category, our filter is set to 1.5. In November our list was Adam Larsson, Charlie McAvoy, Matt Roy, and Moritz Seider. As you can see there has been a little changing of the guard over the last couple of months.

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NamePosTeamGPSOGHitsBlocks
MACKENZIE WEEGARDCGY312.391.872.48
JOSH MANSONDCOL291.722.691.59
MORITZ SEIDERDDET311.711.682.39
ALEXANDER ROMANOVDNYI311.521.552.39
RADKO GUDASDANA251.62.922.16
KRIS LETANGDPIT292.071.861.69
JACOB TROUBADNYR331.72.152.79

There are some familiar names here with Trouba and Seider from earlier lists, plus preseason highlight Kris Letang (who had a bit of a slow start). Radko Gudas and MacKenzie Weegar were noted in the last article as well.

Let's start off this discussion Weegar. During his last two years in Florida, Weegar sort of burst onto the scene with increased offensive production and peripheral contributions. Forty-five- and 55-point paces, and in the case of 21-22, quite the peripheral backdrop. He managed 1.95 blocks per game, 2.25 hits, and 2.54 hits per game. Peripherals in 22-23 were just ok, as he dropped both his shot and his block counts. Through November of this season, he was back up in shots and blocks, but still a bit lower in hits. The points have rebounded too, up to a 40-point pace, and even occasionally seeing some power-play time. Weegar was kind of disappointing in 22-23 with points and peripherals falling, but thus far in 23-24 he is most certainly back to the kind of cross category coverage we had been seeing in his Florida days.

Seider is a bit of an interesting case. He had an incredible rookie season, not just with a 50-point pace, but 2.28 shots per game, 1.84 hits per game, and 1.96 blocks. His path the past two seasons has been a little less consistent. He is still certainly valuable, but drops in point, shot, and hit rates have certainly cooled the hype somewhat. Part of it is certainly the increases on the back end. With Shayne Gostisbehere, Seider isn't seeing as much of the power-play, plus Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry added to the fold to take some minutes as well. He is still on these lists so clearly provides value even if he isn't getting points, plus he is still young, so the future still looks good for him.

Letang was on a bunch of my early season draft boards because I was hoping even if he didn't get top power-play he likely would still provide some volume across several categories. Plus, there was always the hope that he might share duties with Erik Karlsson. Back in November he wasn't really showing that cross category contribution. His shot rates were below two per game, though still reasonable, but his hit and block rates were quite low comparably. The good news is that each of those categories has risen over the second chunk of time here. His shot rates are now above two per game, and he has increased his blocks per game, and jumped up more than half a hit per game. The downside obviously is that lack of power-play time, but the peripherals at least give him a solid floor for folks looking for cross category contributions.

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