The Journey: Hot Streaks for Gritsyuk, Ritchie; Ranking Zeev Buium; Zellweger’s NHL Debut
Ben Gehrels
2024-01-27
Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.
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For Bubble Keeper Week back in July, with the news of the Devils' Arseni Gritsyuk signing a two-year contract extension in the KHL, I recommended him as a drop. Two years is a long time in fantasy, and the Devils' top-six was feeling incredibly crowded. He then came out of the gates relatively slowly, scoring 14 points in his first 26 games and missing several games here and there as a healthy scratch—not an overly inspiring situation.
But after scoring an astounding 20 points in his last 12 games, Gritsyuk is out to make me eat my words. SKA-St. Petersburg is led in scoring by Canes mega-prospect Alexander Nikishin with 45 points in 56 games, but Gritsyuk has now eclipsed even him with a point-per-game mark of 0.89. For reference, Kirill Kaprizov scored 62 points in 57 games (1.09 ppg) at the same age in his last KHL campaign before crossing over and becoming an immediate NHL superstar. Gritsyuk is not at Kaprizov's level, but this level of production from a 22-year-old player should not be ignored.
Gritsyuk has always had a high-end release and above-average puck handling skills. He knows how to drift out of coverage and can unleash hard, accurate shots without a lot of time or space to work with—crucial skills at the highest level.
He is still signed in Russia until the end of the 2024-25 campaign, so the earliest he could make his Devils debut is March 2025, assuming he skips the AHL entirely. A year and a half is still a long time to wait, and he will be in tough to earn minutes alongside Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. Much of his competition in Jersey is elite or high-end and signed long-term: Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer, Tyler Toffoli, and Alexander Holtz.
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In case you haven't heard, one development to keep an eye on with NHL-drafted prospects playing in the KHL is new legislation that seems to be in the works that would keep young players in Russia for at least five years. This would not affect the timeline described above for Gritsyuk because by the end of 2024-25 he will have reached that mark, but other players of interest like Nikishin (CAR), Matvei Michkov (PHI), Daniila Yurov (MIN), and Ivan Demidov (2024) could all be impacted moving forward.
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The main knock on Calum Ritchie (COL) last year was his lack of blue-chip-level offence. He finished at 22nd overall in my rankings last year and was difficult to assess because he finished with a significantly lower point-per-game mark than many of his peers but possessed an intriguing high-IQ skill set that should have been capable of more. This year, however, he has taken a clear step forward on the scoresheet while playing for a mid-standings Oshawa team without any other notable NHL talent to speak of on the roster.
Richie has been absolutely on fire lately with 24 points in his last 9 games. On a team that has scored by committee this year, he stands head and shoulders above his teammates and is (re-)asserting his position as a high-level prospect who should likely not have been available for the Avalanche at the end of the first round.
Although he currently sits outside our Top 200 Prospect Forwards rankings, behind fellow Avs prospects Nikolai Kovalenko, Jean-Luc Foudy, Oskar Olausson, and Ben Meyers, I expect that to change in short order. Aside from Kovalenko, who is more of an overage import, Ritchie is easily Colorado's top forward prospect and has been playing like it this year.
Development-wise, he is still probably one step short of a true blue-chipper. You would want to see an NHL equivalency of 40+ in his D+1 year but he is currently at around a 34. That has negatively impacted his star percentage for now, but things could change in a hurry if he is able to sustain this hot streak for the remainder of the OHL campaign.
At the moment, top-six talents like Matias Maccelli, Martin Necas, and Shane Pinto seem like best-case scenarios for the Avs prospect.
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Bob MacKenzie's midterm rankings for the 2024 draft dropped about a week ago.
This particular ranking always creates a buzz because it is closely informed by scouts and industry executives and tends to fairly closely mirror what will actually happen in June. One of the most interesting observations that jumped out to me is that MacKenzie has Zeev Buium outside the top ten at 13 despite the fact that what Buium has accomplished on paper this year for the University of Denver has smashed all historical comparisons. Buium has eight points in his last four games as a rookie defenceman and 33 in 23 on the year.
Interestingly, he is even lower in the Dobber Prospect team's rankings from back in November than he is on MacKenzie's list. Our team has him at 21st overall at the moment, though I would expect that to change given his 18 points in 14 NCAA games since then.
While dominating offensively, he continues to grow his game and make strides on the defensive end of things. As DP's USA Regional Scout David Saad noted, "He has become much better at anticipating play, and become a rather proficient stick-checker as well. When he is being beaten, it's usually a matter of pure athleticism." His 5-11, 165 lb frame is likely a big reason why scouts have been lower on him than one might expect.
He will be one of the more intriguing names to watch come draft day.
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Awesome to see Olen Zellweger finally make his NHL debut for the Ducks.
2021 was around when I first took over this column from Hadi, so that was also the first draft I developed a personal ranking for. I had him as my sixth-best defender in the draft behind (in order) Owen Power (BUF), Brandt Clarke (LAK), Luke Hughes (NJD), Simon Edvinsson (DET), and Scott Morrow (CAR). Although it has only been a couple years since then, it has felt like a long wait because his upside is so damn tantalizing. Anaheim has been patient with the young defender, letting him absolutely dominate the WHL for two more years (158 points in 110 games) before graduating him to the AHL.
His 25 points in 34 games with the Gulls in 2023-24 represents a very successful transition to pro hockey, and his underlying stats are just as shiny. His even-strength Individual Points Percentage (IPP) of 57 is really solid for a rookie and shows that offence flows through him regularly, especially on the power play where his IPP jumps up to 77.
For reference, Quinn Hughes is currently rocking IPPs of 54.6 (5v5) and 65.6 (PP) during his Norris-level season for Vancouver.
Most exciting for me, though, are his 3.1 shots/game in the minors this year. That is a ton of shots for a rookie defender and speaks to the level of confidence he plays with. Zellweger is a dynamic-looking player who consistently stands out in a positive way. That was as true in his Ducks' debut as it has been at every other level, including back-to-back World Juniors.
In the following play, for instance, he was clearly looking to join the rush from his own zone but immediately retreated when his teammate lost possession—showing a great balance of offensive and defensive awareness. He then intercepts a pass, skillfully tips it to the boards, then retrieves it and calmly makes a safe play to get the puck out of the zone. I likes what I sees.
Zellweger picked up an assist in his first game with the Ducks and has looked poised, confident, and responsible in his own end. Between him and Pavel Mintyukov, no wonder Anaheim felt confident pulling the trigger on that Drysdale-Gauthier trade. Those two could easily develop impressive synergy off the rush like we're seeing right now from Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley for the Stars:
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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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