Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from A.J.)

I'm in a 14 team 25 player roster with 3 IR and 15 minor roster capped (10% over) dynasty keeper league, rostering 15 active spots 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/2G. Categories are G A Pts +- Sog Pim GWG PPPts SHP OTP HB FO% TOI W GAA SV% SO. There is a minimum of two goalie starts per week.

I have a dilemma, as once minors players reach 60 games they must be promoted to the active roster. As well I still might need to make room for Frederick Andersen at some point. So there will be 4 players in total I need to make a decision on fairly soon. I only have 100K in cap space. So one player that is moved to make room for Andersen has to have at least a $3.2M cap hit.

C – Nathan Mackinnon, Brayden Point, Vincent Trocheck, Connor McMicheal

LW – Brandon Hagel, Carter Verhaeghe

RW – Patrick Kane, Alexander Holtz

LW/ RW eligible – Valeri Nichushkin, Trevor Moore, Lawson Crouse, Jonathan Berggren, Pavel Buchnevich, Yegor, Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko

C/LW – Steven Stamkos, Mason McTavish

C/LW/RW – Philipp Kurashev

D – Adam Fox, Martin Fehervary, Rasmus Sandin, Jani Hakanpaa, Kyle Burroughs

G – Pyotr Kotchetkov, Martin Jones

IR – Andersen, Filip Chytil

Minors but soon reaching 60 games – Pavel Mintyukov, Scott Perunovich, Dmitri Voronkov

I took a gamble around the end of October and traded a 3rd round pick (4 rounds in total) for Berggren hoping that Detroit would solve their 3 goalie mess but that never materialized. I try and grab players that have multi position eligibility to max out their usefulness.

The players who stick out to me to move are Crouse, Moore, and Burroughs but two are good for banger categories. I definitely want to keep Mintyukov now that Jamie Drysdale is out of the picture. The other two minors I do like but I'm not sure if I should trade them away or keep and try and move a player on main roster to make room for them.

If this was a month ago, I'd have pushed back regarding your view of Mintyukov; however, the trade of Jamie Drysdale signifies Anaheim's faith in him, and at worst he'll be a #2 guy if/when Olen Zellweger becomes the top blueliner for the Ducks. As for the other two prospects, I think both are well above average, and, as such, should be promoted. Perunovich has only aging blueliners between his path and becoming a top four, PP1 guy, while Voronkov, despite his size, is already making an impact. As such, you will need to find room for all three. In terms of Andersen, his future is less certain by the day. Yes, you likely can't afford to drop him; but it's a far from ideal situation.

You might need to find four spots before this season is over. I think Fehervary is expendable, as he's the most expensive "banger" on your team, and you have those bases amply covered. I'd also be looking to trade Trocheck while his value is sky high, as he's yet to put together two solid seasons in a row plus he's hitting and shooting less. Chances are you can find someone who sees what Trocheck is doing and, wrongly thinking this is sustainable beyond this season, will pay in the form of a one or more picks.

I also think one of Moore and Crouse would indeed have to go. Moore has really stepped up, and he's on a Kings team where being in the top nine is basically tantamount to being in the top six for most any other squad given how balanced LA's lines are at even strength. Crouse is doing well, but I think this is the best we're going to get from him, although another GM might feel otherwise. I'd opt to keep Moore over Crouse.

The last cut probably is one of the two Blue Jacket forwards. I don't think that team is poised to do much better any time soon, so owning three of their forwards might be ill advised. I like what I'm seeing from Marchenko, who's shown a balanced game this season while also shooting more. As for Chinakhov, although his numbers are comparable to Marchenko's, I don't like that it's come via what appears to be an unsustainably high SH%. I'd opt for Marchenko of the two.

You want to trade Trocheck and Crouse, plus, if you can, Fehervary and Chinakhov, getting picks in return, since otherwise you'd need to still drop players. Another option would be to try and package any of them with Jones, who is, simply put, a bad goalie (four of the last five seasons with double digits negative GSAA and a 22%+ really bad start percentage, and all five with under a 50% quality start percentage). Good luck!

Question #2 (from Jeff)

I’m in rebuilding mode in my points-only keeper league. Which of these players do you think can reach top line/top PP within the next two seasons: Brandon Hagel, Wyatt Johnston, Alexis Lafreniere, Kappo Kakko, Dylan Guenther, Marco Rossi, Matty Beniers, Scott Perunovich?

For starters, I think Kakko, between injuries and poor play, is the longest shot to meet your criteria. Heck, he might be out of the league within two years, as he's been that much of a disappointment. Lafreniere has taken major strides this season; however, no one who's on PP1 for the Rangers is going anywhere in the next two seasons, such that unless one of them falters and/or Laffy explodes, a path to PP1 for him is not looking likely.

Beniers' situation is interesting in that he's likely going to meet the top line, PP1 criteria; but Seattle is one of those teams which rolls with three legit forward lines, and doesn't heap PP1 on its top unit. So although he should qualify based on your criteria, I'm not sure he'll have the output that would normally come with it.

As for Hagel, I'd like to think he could become the next Carter Verhaeghe and do so well at ES that he eventually gets installed on PP1; however, the Bolts seem to like to have a big body out there as the fourth forward with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos. Yes, Stamkos is a UFA, but I can't see a universe where he doesn't re-sign. Although never say never, I think Hagel – as well as his fantasy owners – will have to be content with him getting great ES deployment, but no chance at being on PP1.

Johnston has been used on the top line in Dallas quite a bit, and is not looking at all out of place. And a path to PP1 might be realistic, as Joe Pavelski could retire after this season, and Jamie Benn might after 2024-25. Yes, there's also Tyler Seguin in the mix too. All things considered I'd say there's at least a 50% chance of Johnston being on PP1 within the next two seasons. Also, even if somehow Johnston does not last on the top line, Dallas is yet another squad where the top line is not played into the ground, making the second line center gig a lot better of a proposition than it would be for a player on most teams. In short, Johnston is the "pick of the litter" for the forwards.

Guenther's future remains bright; however, if he plays all possible games between now and 2025-26, he'd only be hitting his breakout threshold that campaign. His time should come, but it would be a long shot to occur within the next two seasons.

Rossi has delivered this season, such that he's been the #1 center for the Wild more often than not. And with the team in cap hell for one more season, there should be no threat to that changing, as if Minny wanted to plays Joel Eriksson-Ek with Kirill Kaprizov they'd have done so already, but instead have opted to try and spread talent across two lines. Rossi is still not on PP1 though, as the top unit has remained Kaprizov, Eriiksson-Ek, Mats Zuccarello, and Matt Boldy. I don't see that likely to change in the next two seasons. In fact, come 2025-26 the Wild likely will spend big time to try and finally snag a top tier center for Kaprizov (more on this below). Rossi is not in a situation that would assuredly see him being on both the top line and PP1 in the next two seasons.

Perunovich is a highly regarded young defenseman, and finally entrenched in the line-up after some early season scratches. And he's even seeing time on PP1, which, frankly is not a surprise given the other options of a decreasingly effective Torey Krug and Justin Faulk, who's never really run a PP1. Perunovich should meet your criteria as well, and I have high hopes for him. Good question!

Question #3 (from Logan)

I'm old enough to remember the success of Ben Bishop and Devan Dubnyk, both of whom were 6'6'' or taller, plus Pekka Rinne was pretty great and he was 6'5''. And in the NHL today there's Adin Hill and Jakob Markstrom, both of whom are 6'6''. Do you think it makes sense to try and grab guys like Akira Schmid, Joel Hofer, Mads Sogaard, Sebastian Cossa, and Erik Portillo, each of whom is 6'5'' or taller? Or am I trying to find a correlation where there isn't one?

Interesting observation, as indeed the tallest goalies to play in the NHL have been quite successful. And yes, some of the current crop of goalie prospects are at least 6'5'' or above. What are my thoughts?

I like Sogaard, as he's taken nice strides at the AHL level this season, and, more importantly, Ottawa's netminders are not playing so well as to prevent him from getting a chance to shine. He could do for the Sens what Jake Oettinger did for Dallas a couple of seasons ago, where they entered the season thinking they would be good to go with the duo of Braden Holtby and Anton Khudobin, but by the end of the campaign it was Oettinger who'd become the starter.

Cossa's AHL results thus far haven't been as good as those of Sogaard; however, he is only 21, versus Sogaard's 23. The fact he's already seeing action in a second AHL campaign is promising. And the Red Wings, like the Sens, don't have a stud netminder who should stand in the way should Cossa shine next season. I like stashing him in a keeper.

Schmid is iffy to me. Much was made of the fact that he had two shutouts amid the pressure-packed atmosphere of the Stanley Cup playoffs; however, he also had three really bad starts. He was in prime position to grab the starting reins this season, yet played very poorly, with a quality start % that was barely higher than his really bad start %, leading to him being demoted to the AHL, where he's fared no better. In fact, his poor play, plus that of Vitek Vanecek, left the door open for either Nico Dawes to insert himself into the equation, or, more likely, for the Devils to trade for a dependable starter, as no netminder on the team earns even $4M. It is still possible for Schmid to right his ship; however, I think it is more likely that he becomes a playoff footnote.

Hofer was supposed to push for starts this season, with Jordan Binnington seemingly having used at least eight of his nine lives. Sure enough, Hofer has stuck as the back-up, and played pretty well, better, in fact, than Binnington. But Binnington is inked to a deal through 2026-27 paying him $6M per season, which means all things being otherwise equal, or even if Hofer might be slightly outplaying Binnington, Hofer likely stays the back-up. But I'd say Hofer is nevertheless worth a grab in hopes he does get a true chance to shine.

Lastly there's Portillo, who, although already 23, only appeared in his first AHL game this season, as he had opted to play college hockey, where somehow his stats worsened each campaign. But with the situation in net for LA being very much up in the air, Portillo, like Sogaard and Cossa, might be able to insert himself in the mix. If only he'd been father along in his development he could even try to make waves as soon as next season. We'll see what LA does in the offseason though, as it will go a long way in determining Portillo's likely fate.

In sum, I think all of the five, with the exception of Schmid, have a chance to make an NHL impact. If I had to hitch my wagon to just one it'd likely be Sogaard, although Cossa, Hofer and Portillo might be able to find NHL success too. Good question!

Question #4 (from JC)

I'm in a points only keeper league. I'm struggling with two options at four different positions (we use Yahoo), namely, at RW, either Mathew Barzal or Travis Konecny, at LW, either Tim Stutzle or Jake Guentzel, at D, either Mikhail Sergachev or Shea Theodore, and at G, either Igor Shesterkin or Stuart Skinner. Who would you opt to keep at each spot? In case it matters, the kept players would only be keepable for next season, and then would go back into the draft pool.

Let's start with the goalies. You didn't list what stats count; however, I don't think it matters because there isn't a universe where Shesterkin isn't the pick. Yes, Skinner is playing amazing and is now the true #1 in Edmonton. He's going to rack up wins, and chances are those matter most. Yes, Igor is set to see his stats drop substantially for the second straight season. This was a goalie who had two campaigns of 21+ GSAA and even this season is still logging a comparable percentage of quality starts as he did in 2022-23. He is having more bad games; but Skinner isn't immune from those either. I think that Skinner has a chance to be for the Oilers what Marc-Andre Fleury was for the Pens, namely a solid goalie who gets lots of wins but is never really in the conversation when it comes to the best of the best. But given what we've already seen from Shesterkin, he has to still be the pick. Yes, Igor has come back to earth and is several years older than Skinner, but he's tried and tested. Skinner, for all we know, might just be on a sun run, plus we don't even know how he'll fare over the rigors of being the true starter day in and day out. Don't be blinded by recency bias to choose Skinner, as Shesterkin is the keep.

Sergachev versus Theodore is interesting, as Theodore has had injury issues while Sergachev hasn't been able to completely push aside Victor Hedman. My concern with Sergachev is once he gets his chance to shine, Tampa will be past its prime. But Theodore's band-aid boy status has held him back and its cumulative effect could be diminished skill in the long term. This is close. I think I'd narrowly choose Theodore because when he plays he produces, while despite how well he played for most of 2022-23, we can't be certain that Sergachev has it in him to play that well consistently, especially since he isn't a high-volume shooter and, as I noted, the concern about Tampa starting to lose its offensive firepower.

I think the easiest choice is between Guentzel and Stutzle, with Stutzle being my pick. He's considerably younger, and is over a point per game this season despite a SH% that is less than half what it was in the 2022-23 season. At 22, his future is incredibly bright. Guentzel is seven years older than Stutzle, and while I do think he'll re-sign with the Pens rather than becoming a UFA, that isn't as impactful as it was a few seasons ago, due to Sidney Crosby still producing quite well but not being the offensive dynamo he once was. Give me Stutzle here for sure.

When it comes to Barzal and Konecny, you have the two most offensively potent players on teams not known for their offense. But Barzal has been unshackled this season and looks great. Most of us felt he always had this in him, as his rookie output of 85 points is among the three highest of all centers in the past 20 seasons, with two guys named Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby being the others. Barzal had to live through years in defense-first systems, and is playing like he has a new lease on life, because he kind of does. Nothing against Konecny, who has clearly shown he's a top line talent, but he's not a point per game lock like Barzal looks like he is now, with even the potential for me. Give me Barzal. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Edward)

In a points only keeper, who would you rather own – Jason Robertson or Kirill Kaprizov? From where I sit, both are underperforming due to circumstances beyond their control, namely ice time for JRob and lack of a top tier center for Kaprizov. If you could own either one, who would you prefer?

I'm in full agreement that both JRob and Kaprizov are indeed capable of much more than we're seeing from them now, not just because we've already witnessed it from both but also because, as you noted, they are each playing under suboptimal conditions. The question is what does the future hold for both?

Conventional wisdom would suggest that eventually JRob will get more ice time. But is that the case? Dallas is thriving by running three lines and playing Robertson well less than players who have his level of skill and production. Look no further than Sebastian Aho to see that ice times can stay lower than would be ideal, in turn throttling the player's production. Yes, we saw that Jrob could still put up monster numbers even in the face of lower than ideal ice time; however, not only is he failing to see more TOI, but his OZ% is shrinking, and, with that, his SOG rate. The Stars seem to want him to be a more complete player, which is good for them and real-life hockey, but bad for his fantasy output.

As for Kaprizov, he's getting far more ice time than the season he exploded, but isn't producing as well. Of some concern is his IPP on track to fall for the second straight season. Is if he does eventually get centered by a top tier linemate in 2025-26 once the Wild are past their cap hell, will he be enough of a points magnet to see a net benefit? My take is a better center would lead to far more goals, such that a lower IPP still would not prevent his production from rising. Also, Kaprizov's secondary assist rate has, always been very low, which is indicative of him needing to have a direct hand in nearly all the points he gets. A top tier center should allow him to tally more points via secondary assists he's not getting now.

Yes, Kaprizov is more than two years older than Robertson; however, both are still young enough to not have that be a deciding factor. I think the Kaprizov that lies in store for poolies come 2025-26 could be better than even what we saw in 2021-22, whereas Dallas – much like Carolina – won't fix what isn't broken, limiting Robertson's upside. If forced to choose between the two, I'm taking Kaprizov and the pot of gold that awaits at the end of the rainbow, or in this case in 2025-26. Good question!

Question #6 (from Lon)

In the Forums, I recently found this thread, where it was revealed that Hits are down 24% from last season. Let's say this becomes the new normal. How does this affect strategy for banger leagues?

I noticed that as well, and would not have guessed it was occurring. I just figured my players were not hitting as much. But it's indeed a leaguewide situation, and, with that, likely an edict from the NHL, as there is no way they'd be down this much year over year. Will it be the new normal? Unclear; however, probably it makes sense to treat it as such.

Certainly this elevates the value of those who've not seen their hit totals drop. But the strategy of filling ones roster – especially in cap leagues – with defensemen who do little more than provide hits and blocks might need to be rethought. Or, if not that, then more emphasis might need to be place on guys who block tons of shots, as unlike Hits that is not a subjective stat and numbers in that area are slightly up from last season.

Also, forwards who block shots become a more valuable commodity. Among those who block at, near, or even above the one shot per game mark are Auston Matthews, Tomas Hertl, Vincent Trocheck, Nathan MacKinnon, Alex Touch, Joe Pavelski, Sam Reinhart, Boone Jenner, Alex Iafallo, Joel Farabee and Anze Kopitar.

Also, forwards who remain hitters should be considered more valuable than normal. Examples, other than obvious ones, include J.T. Miller, Eeli Tolvanen, Brayden Schenn, Joel Eriksson Ek, Filip Forsberg, Matthew Knies, and Frank Vatrano.

If you haven't done so already, take a long look at your players and their hit totals, to see which ones are lagging behind expectations. It might be necessary to try and swap them for those who can contribute in other areas, such as +/-, which, although a tough stat to predict, is something that varies more season to season rather than within the same season. Beyond that, it will be difficult to find players who offer very good numbers in key categories yet who likely aren't already rostered by another team. For example, you won't find many d-men who fire tons of shots and also aren't offensive producers, meaning they're already owned in all likelihood.

Another key to knowing this trend is to judge where your team realistically stands in roto leagues. If you are pretty far back in hits, chances are less likely – versus prior seasons – that you will be able to make up that gap. On the other hand, if you're way ahead, then you might be able to trade from strength, and, when doing so, you should be sure to point out how the player(s) you're looking to deal have all the more value than prior seasons due to hits being down so pronouncedly. Good question!

Question #7 (from Ted)

If you could pick one stat to which everyone should pay more attention, what is it and why?

This is tough. Readers know I'm a big believer in overall IPP; however, I feel that most poolies are indeed focusing on that as they should. Same with offensive zone starting percentage as well as secondary assist rate. My "hidden gem" pick would be percentage of games with at least one point, which can be found on Frozen Tools under the "Most Consistent" tab in the report generator.

If I see a player who is a high scorer but who lags behind others near him in scoring when it comes to percentage of games with at least one point, I worry that his output might have been bolstered by a few huge games, which of course is something we can't count on recurring. Examples are Auston Matthews, who, as I write this, ranks 11th in scoring among forwards but barely in the top 50 in percentage of games with at least one point. Brayden Point is another, as he's in the top 20 among scorers but outside the top 75 in percentage of games with at least a point. Then there's Brock Boeser, whose total for multipoint games is nearly half his total of games with at least one point. I'd be leery of all three in the second half.

In contrast, players who've been "steady eddies" but not had as many multi-point games include Mark Stone (32 games with a point, but just ten multipoint games), Sidney Crosby (33 games with at least one point, 11 multipoint games), plus Crosby's linemate Jake Guentzel (33 games with at least one point, ten multipoint games). While it is entirely possible they remain steady producers without many big games; I'd bank on them being more likely to produce comparatively better – versus their current rates – over the rest of the season than Matthews, Point, or Boeser.

For defensemen, Rasmus Dahlin is off his expected pace, probably due to the fact he's had 30 games with at least a point, but only seven of those featuring him tallying 2+ points. But looking at the others who don't have many multi-point games but are within the top 30 in rearguard scoring, we see names like Devon Toews, Rasmus Andersson, Kris Letang, and MacKenzie Weegar. In their cases, due to age and/or deployment, I see them as less likely to see a boost, as they probably are not due to have more multipoint games. Good question!

Question #8 (from Matt)

I'm in a 12-team limited keeper league (multi-cat). I'm currently in 1st place with a 13-1 record with two other teams right on my tail. I'm wondering what I should do to prepare for the playoffs. Those two managers made some huge moves via trades that really changed the outlook of our season. Most notably is now one of their rosters features Matthews, Pastrnak, Kucherov, Point, Brady Tkachuk, Reinhart, JT Miller, and Nylander. The other team that I probably go head-to-head with has Rantanen, Crosby, Thomas, Verhaeghe, Kempe, Stone, Suzuki, Theodore, Morrissey, and the "three headed beast" of McDavid, Hyman, and RNH. 

The notables on my roster look like this: MacKinnon, Eichel, Forsberg, Guentzel, Svechnikov, Quinn Hughes, Bouchard, Heiskanen, Durzi, Guentzel, Jenner, DeBrincat, P. Kane, Tippett, and Marchessault. In net I have Demko, Daccord, and Woll. It's a very well-rounded team but compared to the teams that made their recent moves it feels like I'm lacking an elite player or two. Do I try and "keep up with the Joneses?" I own the first overall pick next season, which has garnered a lot of interest. With that pick, I can draft Matthews, Makar, or Pastrnak (they all can no longer be kept). I also have the 12th overall pick, a 2^nd rounder, two 3rds, and a 4th. But after that, I don't pick again till the 12th round! So my picks are limited. 

One GM has offered Matthew Tkachuk and a 1-year contract (so I can sign him). He is hot right now and Florida has three favorable matchups during our finals in which they play Columbus, Ottawa, and Buffalo. The same GM also offered Kaprizov for my 4th round pick. Kaprizov can also be signed for (up to) one more year. 

Do I made one or more of these deals and hope to keep pace with the other top teams? Or do I hold and hope for the best and make tiny tweaks instead? 

One key thing to keep in mind is it's not just one team that made itself better, but two. Why in that key? Because it means one of the three of your squads won't even make the finals. I like that you're thinking ahead in terms of the Matthew Tkachuk deal; however, my guess is the price is higher than for Kaprizov, and Tkachuk's lure is mainly if you do make the finals. The Kaprizov trade also is not ideal in that you'd be having to let him go right before 2025-26, when the Wild will be out of cap hell and able to bring in a center to help make Kaprizov better. I'm sure his current owner realizes that, and so should you.

You didn't mention the goalies on the other teams. That would've been good to know. But I'll assume they're not much better than you in that area, and it will likely indeed come down to how your skaters perform. I do worry that the first team is so incredibly stacked as to not be beatable. Then again, how much better would you be next season if you held onto the picks? I think it comes down to deciding to make both moves, or neither, as I think just one is kind of a middle ground approach that likely won't help you enough now and still costs you in terms of the future.

Also, it sounds like to win you would indeed have to beat both of these two teams, one in the semis and the other in the finals.  As such, if it was me I'd make both deals and hope that gives me enough to top the first team.

Also, do make sure you realize that your playoff finals will coincide with the last week of the regular season, which means some stars will be rested, especially if their playoff spot and seeding is already secure. Take a look at that carefully before making your decision, as it might be a factor that could tilt the scales. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.