Fantasy Take: Sean Monahan Dealt to Winnipeg

Michael Clifford

2024-02-02

The Trade Deadline dominoes have started to fall as Elias Lindholm was traded to Vancouver a couple days ago. (Read Alex's take on that trade here.) Even though the NHL is on its All-Star break, the general managers keep working and another one of the top names on the board is on the move.

After re-establishing his value over the last couple of seasons in Montreal, Sean Monahan was traded to the Winnipeg Jets:

The condition is that the Canadiens will receive that third-round pick if Winnipeg wins the Stanley Cup. There was no salary retention, either.

What Winnipeg Gets

The first thing to clear up is that this isn't really a trade for shore up Winnipeg's second-line centre situation. Mark Scheifele's line gets way more 5-on-5 ice time than anyone else, and then Adam Lowry's line is a pseudo-second line after that. The middle-6 for the Jets play somewhat equally, so Monahan will be in the 12- to 13-minute range at 5-on-5 rather than around 14 minutes as some second-line centres like Evgeni Malkin and Anthony Cirelli. Monahan skated 12:35 per night at 5-on-5 in Montreal this season and that seems like a fair baseline for him in Winnipeg.

There will be an upgrade in line mates, though. Assuming he's between Cole Perfetti and one of Nikolaj Ehlers/Gabriel Vilardi, he will get two wingers that have produced points/60 minutes at a first-line rate over the last two seasons (Ehlers on the upper end, Perfetti on the lower). That is a drastic improvement over his most common line mates in Montreal of Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, and Tanner Pearson. That should help his production efficiency, and that's a boost to his fantasy profile. With Scheifele's top line attracting attention, and Lowry taking some shutdown minutes, Monahan won't be asked to do a lot of heavy lifting at even strength.

The real question is what happens on the power play. Monahan had been used in the bumper spot in Montreal, a spot that had been frequented in Winnipeg by Alex Iafallo. When Scheifele and Kyle Connor were healthy, the top PP unit was scoring nine goals per 60 minutes with Iafallo in the bumper. That is good, but it is not a rate that puts them among the best in the West, so they may want to use Monahan in that spot. He was already on pace for 26 power play points this season, so unless the Jets become a lot more proficient, it's hard to see Monahan improving much on that pace.

Acquiring Monahan does hurt the value of Iafallo, who very well may lose that power play role. Also, when everyone is healthy, their top three lines could look something like:

Connor – Scheifele – Vilardi

Perfetti – Monahan – Ehlers

Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton

The only guy that may get moved out is Mason Appleton, but this is to say that Vladislav Namestnikov could very well lose his top-9 role. At the least, it's in question as the Jets now have options as to how they compose Lowry's line.

In Montreal, this opens a direct line for Alex Newhook assuming the second-line centre role when he's healthy. It shouldn't be long after the All-Star break that he returns and there is now a top-6 spot for him. He had been used on the wing at times, but with Kirby Dach and Christian Dvorak out for the season, options are limited so he'll at least get a chance there. Juraj Slafkovsky was recently moved off the top line, so those two may get a lot of run together over their final 30-ish games. Newhook should also get to the top PP unit when he gets back, though how they fare without Monahan, who was excellent in that bumper role, remains to be seen.

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Who This Helps

Sean Monahan

Alex Newhook

Cole Perfetti

Who This Hurts

Alex Iafallo

Vladislav Namestnikov

Mason Appleton

The Montreal Power Play

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