Looking Ahead: Valuing Couture, Roy, Letang, Colorado, Los Angeles, and More
Andrew Santillo
2024-02-02
Welcome back everyone! Happy All-Star break to all who celebrate. I know the All-Star game and festivities might not drum up a ton of interest out there, but I do think it's a good snapshot of just who mattered in a given season. Pick a season, if you go back and look at the roster for that season's ASG, it'll give you a great sense of just who really stood out that year. Plus, it's just a fun game for all the little's out there. I still remember being a kid and being completely enamored by Sergei Federov's hardest shot hitting 101 MPH. I mean, don't get me wrong, even as an adult that's freakin' sweet, but at 11-years old it was something that made an impression as I can recall that memory even today.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Logan Couture, C, San Jose Sharks (Rostered in 43% of ESPN leagues, 54% Fantrax, 37% Yahoo) – One strategy that I think can work in fantasy is to sometimes investigate some of the rosters that are not as well known, or one of the clubs that's really struggling. I do think in fantasy baseball all the time, but now we might have one of those situations in fantasy hockey.
Let's just get the obvious out of the way here. The Sharks might not be the best for fantasy. You know it and I know. Heck, they probably know it too, but that doesn't mean that there's not pieces of this team that can be valuable, especially if you're in a larger league. That leads us to the Immediate Fix, Captain Shark, Logan Couture. Couture is just not returning from a lower-body injury and if he can help add value to your club, it might fly under the radar to claim him off of waivers.
Last season Couture put up 27 goals (67 points), while also appearing in all 82-games for the Sharks. Any line that he's on for San Jose odds are he'll be the trigger man for, and if this club can string together decent power play time, then he's hands down going to be on the top unit. I'd like to think that this is a situation where he could be dealt to a contender, but with an $8M cap hit, that's unlikely. Again, no contract is un-tradeable, but there's plenty of them out there that are unlikely to get moved. If you're looking to make this addition, I think waiting a week might be in your best interest as San Jose is not in action until February 14th.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Nicolas Roy, C, Vegas Golden Knights (Rostered in 3% of ESPN leagues, 22% Fantrax, 9% Yahoo) – This season I think most of the skater position groupings are fairly even in fantasy as far as depth is concerned, but if you're in need for help at the center spot, look no further than Nicolas Roy.
I asked my league a question this past Friday after I watched the Vegas/NY Islanders game and it was this, "What's the one thing Vegas does the best?" I don't think that there's a wrong answer here, but if there's one that comes to mind, I think it's a simple fact of them being able to piece together lines that work for all three skaters. Recently the Vegas second line has been comprised of Ivan Barbashev – Nicolas Roy – Jonathan Marchessault, and the line has been fantastic. In the past three games played they have 34 shot attempts for and six goals for, all while driving play. I like Roy as the player to add as we've talked about Barbashev here in the past, and odds are Marchessault is already rostered in your league. Roy has eight points in his last four games and has been excellent stepping up into the second line center role with Chandler Stephenson taking top line duties with Jack Eichel out of the lineup. For fantasy I like this add sooner rather than later and for DFS I think you could one-off any player on this line on a given slate.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh Penguins (Rostered in 93% of ESPN leagues, 96% Fantrax, 87% Yahoo) – My two-season run of rostering Kris Letang came to a halt this season but that doesn't mean I didn't have interest in trading for him back in December. He has value, but it's a cause for concern.
So maybe "concern" isn't the right word here. What's a stronger word we can use? Alarm? Maybe even distress? My best friend is a Pens fan and I've heard all about how the power play can't get it together and I just took his word for it but diving into the numbers I think he's right to be concerned/alarmed/distressed. The Penguins are third worst on the man advantage so far this season in goals for, while last season they were top ten in the league. So, what's changed and how is this something that effects Letang? Look, I know this club has problems at times in the circle and that often times leads to zone entry issues, but we at some point have to have the Erik Karlsson conversation at some point, right? It's not the 2,500-word one that I'll someday right but just a quick five-minute conversation.
Recently Pittsburgh changed up how they are deploying their top power play unit, putting Letang out with the first grouping, and Karlsson on the second and the numbers weren't bad at all. If this is something that's sustainable, why go away from it? I think Letang has value in fantasy and hope that is used in a larger role. Yes, he's band-aid boy certified but this is a player that had a tough go last season between losing his father, following missing time after having a stroke and playing hockey less than ten-days later. That's not an exaggeration.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (Rostered in 48% of ESPN leagues, 71%, Fantrax, 30% Yahoo) – It must be a busier afternoon at work because for the Anchor in my notes I wrote down, "Letang" …who I also wrote down for the Odd-Man out. No sense in guessing what happened there, let's see who do we have who do we have for an Anchor…I got it, last season's Calder Trophy winner, Kris Le- *Matty Beniers
I have to start this one by saying that I'm a big fan early of Beniers game and think that if you're rostering him in fantasy that I am in no way saying to go out and make a drop. The issue is just more matchups and time on ice more than anything else. His ice time is now down from 17:52 to 16:19 and the way that Seattle spreads out their ice time amongst all four lines is difficult to navigate in fantasy and almost impossible in DFS.
Anchor might be a bit harsh here, but it is a cool Seattle pun, so I think the two things even each other out. I think Beniers has value but with the way that Seattle spreads the ice time out, I don't think that he'll hit the 57-point mark that he did last season.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through February2nd – February 14th
Colorado – There are only three clubs to play four times coming out of the break and the Avalanche are one of them. They're a Love 'Em in any matchup thanks to their first line but in the unique spot that they're in upcoming, they're a Love 'Em for sure.
Washington – I want to buy into this Caps club in the second half, but I feel like a fire sale could be coming. For now, they're a Love 'Em thanks to a loaded schedule.
Vancouver – The new-look Canucks will take the ice with Elias Lindholm for added center depth and I'm curious what that ends up looking like. It's tough for them out of the gate on the road in Carolina and Boston, but with four games while most clubs are below two, they're a Love 'Em.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
San Jose – I mean…the Sharks don't even play a game next week. Can a club be on a Leave 'Em when they're not in action? It being San Jose, I'll say yeah.
Anaheim – The Ducks return to action following the break with a lone game at home against the Oilers who are on their current winning streak on the line. That's a tough task for this Anaheim club.
Los Angeles – Another club that will see this Oilers club next week as their lone game. This is always a fun matchup when these two clubs get together but with the Kings coming into the break on the low that they are in, it's hard for me to consider them anything but a stay away next week.
Friday, February 2nd to Thursday, February 8th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 2.66 – Away NYR NJD CAR |
Florida 2.31 – Home PHI WSH |
Washington 2.16 – Away FLA – Home MTL |
Vegas 2.14 – Away ARI – Home EDM |
Winnipeg 2.04 – Away PIT PHI |
Steer Clear |
Saturday, February 3rd to Thursday, February 9th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers 3.03 – Away CHI – Home COL TBL |
Colorado 2.66 – Away NYR NJD CAR |
Florida 2.31 – Home PHI WSH |
Minnesota 2.19 – Away CHI – Home PIT |
Washington 2.16 – Away FLA – Home MTL |
Steer Clear |
Sunday, February 4th to Saturday, February 10th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 3.56 – Away NYR NJD CAR FLA |
Florida 3.26 – Home PHI WSH COL |
Dallas 3.14 – Away BUF TOR MTL |
Philadelphia 3.11 – Away FLA – Home WPG SEA |
Winnipeg 3.09 – Away PIT PHI – Home PIT |
Steer Clear |
Columbus .95 – Home TBL |
Detroit .95 – Home VAN |
St. Louis – Away BUF |
Anaheim 1.05 – Home EDM |
Monday, Februaru 5th to Sunday, February 11th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Washington 3.96 – Away FLA BOS – Home MTL VAN |
Vancouver 3.61 – Away CAR BOS DET WSH |
Colorado 3.56 – Away NYR NJD CAR FLA |
Florida 3.26 – Home PHI WSH COL |
Dallas 3.14 – Away BUF TOR MTL |
Steer Clear |
Columbus .95 – Home TBL |
Detroit .95 – Home VAN |
Anaheim 1.05 – Home EDM |
Los Angeles 1.05 – Home EDM |
Tuesday, February 6th to Monday, February 12th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 4.32 – Away FLA – Home WPG SEA ARI |
Washington 3.96 – Away CAR – Home COL CGY SEA |
Vancouver 3.61 – Away CAR BOS DET WSH |
Calgary 3.56 – Away BOS NJD NYI NYR |
Detroit 1.10 – Home OTT |
Steer Clear |
Columbus .95 – Home TBL |
Detroit .95 – Home VAN |
Anaheim 1.05 – Home EDM |
Los Angeles 1.05 – Home EDM |
Wednesday, February 7th to Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Vancouver 3.99 – Away BOS DET WSH CHI |
New Jersey 3.82 – Away CAR NSH – Home CGY SEA |
Washington 3.65 – Away FLA BOS – Home VAN COL |
Tampa Bay 3.52 – Away NYR NYO CBJ BOS |
Philadelphia 3.41 – Home WPG SEA ARI |
Steer Clear |
Pittsburgh 1.81 – Away MIN WPG |
Detroit 1.90 – Away EDM – Home VAN |
Buffalo 1.94 – Home STL LAK |
Columbus 1.94 – Away OTT – Home TBL |
Thursday, February 8th to Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 |
Best Bets |
Vancouver 3.99 – Away BOS DET WSH CHI |
Arizona 3.99 – Away NSH PHI – Home VGK MIN |
New Jersey 3.82 – Away CAR NSH – Home CGY SEA |
Washington 3.65 – Away FLA BOS – Home VAN COL |
Philadelphia 3.41 – Home WPG SEA ARI |
Steer Clear |
San Jose .95 – Away WPG |
Chicago 1.89 – Home NYR VAN |
Detroit 1.90 – Away EDM – Home VAN |
Buffalo 1.94 – Home STL LAK |
Columbus 1.94 – Away OTT – Home TBL |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.