Ramblings: Five Players to Target and Four to Trade Away; Puljujarvi Joins Penguins; Injury Updates and Line Combinations (Feb 5)
Brennan Des
2024-02-05
Before we get into the main course, allow me to whet your appetite with some injury updates and news from around the league.
On Sunday, the Penguins signed Jesse Puljujarvi to a two-year deal that comes with an AAV of $800,000. It seems he's finally ready to return to the NHL after undergoing bilateral hip resurfacing this past summer. Puljujarvi will be a game-time decision ahead of Tuesday's tilt with the Jets. Drafted fourth overall in 2016, the now 25-year-old forward never really lived up to expectations. While there may still be some untapped potential, I'm not sure he'll be able to realize it in Pittsburgh, where he seems destined for a bottom-six role.
Speaking of the Penguins, it looks like they're continuing to spread talent between two power-play units. These combinations are more favourable for Kris Letang than Erik Karlsson, but something tells me this setup isn't permanent.
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Elias Lindholm should make his Canucks' debut in a favourable spot, on a line with superstar forward Elias Pettersson. Vancouver visits Carolina on Tuesday.
It looks like Barrett Hayton is set to return after missing the last two and a half months because of an upper-body injury. Drafted fifth overall in 2018, the 23-year-old forward had four points in five games before he was sidelined. He'd been seeing 64% of Arizona's total time with the man advantage and averaged over 18 and a half minutes per game. Expect him to step into a similarly prominent role when he returns. Rostered in just 4% of Yahoo Leagues, Hayton could provide sneaky value down the stretch.
With Joseph Woll unavailable this week, it looks like it'll be Ilya Samsonov's net for a little while longer. Samsonov has been solid in his last three starts and will look to build confidence against the Islanders, Stars, and Senators this week.
Owen Tippett was at practice on Sunday, increasing the odds that he'll face Florida on Tuesday. On January 27th, Tippett said he was hoping to play in Philly's first game after the All-Star break, and it seems he's still on track to do that.
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With no games on the schedule Sunday, and with fantasy trade deadlines approaching, I thought I'd write about a few players you should look to acquire, and a few you might want to trade away.
If you're looking for a direct line to tell me how foolish I am, or if you have a question about a specific player, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!
Players to Target
The 28-year-old netminder has been outstanding since entering the league in 2020-21, widely considered one of the game's top netminders heading into this season. However, his numbers this year have been uncharacteristically poor. His 3.17 GAA and .910 SV% represent a significant drop from last year's 2.33 GAA and .924 SV%. The fact that he still has a positive GSAA (goals saved above average), suggests that he's still playing relatively well, but perhaps the team in front of him isn't. A closer look supports that theory as New York has the sixth-highest expected goals against per 60 minutes (via NaturalStatTrick). With the Islanders struggling defensively, why would anyone in their right mind endorse Sorokin in fantasy leagues right now? Easy answer. I'm not in my right mind.
In all seriousness, the reason I'm optimistic about Sorokin's rest-of-season outlook is due to recently hired assistant coach Benoit Desrosiers, who's built strong defensive teams in the QMJHL. It might take some time for his teachings to be implemented, but I still think Sorokin can end the season in a better place than he's in right now. If you're in the market for a goalie and you can't swing a deal for Sorokin, Joey Daccord and Filip Gustavsson have favourable schedules down the stretch and are worth considering as well.
The 28-year-old defenseman racked up 18 points in 20 games before suffering an upper-body injury in late November. On November 29th, Vegas announced that Theodore was out week-to-week after undergoing surgery. 10 weeks later, it's essentially been radio silence in terms of injury updates.
A recent report suggests that Theodore could be back in the next week or two. It was a pretty vague update, not saying if that was a timeline for his return to the lineup, or his return to team activities. To further complicate things, coach Bruce Cassidy more recently said that while Theodore has been skating, none of Vegas' injured players are close enough to a return that he can give a timeline.
With a lack of certainty surrounding his return, I imagine you'd have an easier time prying Theodore from his current owner. I expect that manager is frustrated with Theodore's unexpected, prolonged absence, so they're probably more eager to trade him for a healthy asset, whose contributions are guaranteed. I think the 'out of sight, out of mind' phenomenon will be at play here too, with many managers forgetting how good Theodore was at the start of the season, and therefore being more willing to trade him away. There will be a bit of a risk involved with this acquisition, but I think the potential payoff is worth it. It may take Theodore some time to get going when he returns, but I expect he'll be in top form by the time fantasy playoffs roll around.
Continuing the theme off injury-based discounts, we make a stop in Carolina. Andrei Svechnikov had a late start to the campaign as he spent the offseason recovering from knee surgery, getting a torn ACL repaired back in March. He posted an underwhelming 11 points in his first 16 outings before suffering an upper-body injury that kept him out for six games. He caught fire after returning from that injury, racking up 19 points (10 goals) in 13 games before going down with a different upper-body injury. That injury has kept him out since January 19th, but reports indicate he could be back soon. These numerous injuries start to overshadow the strong offense he put up recently, but that gives you an opportunity to acquire an elite asset at a discounted rate. There's always risk involved when acquiring an injured player, but again, I think the potential reward makes this risk worthwhile.
After pacing for 75 points last year and 77 the year before that, Schmaltz is scoring at a measly 53-point pace this season. This decline in output has been puzzling because he's just 27 years old, so age-related decline isn't a factor. He's still seeing a high-volume of ice time, both on the power-play and at even-strength. As was the case in previous years, Schmaltz frequently shares the ice with a high quality linemate in Clayton Keller. All this is to say there isn't really a clear-cut explanation for his drop in production. Since his situation hasn't changed significantly, I'm optimistic that this is an unfortunate run and he'll bounce back soon. Looking at his 5-on-5 shooting percentage, it seems he's suffered from a bit of bad luck as the puck isn't going in as often as it usually does when he's on the ice. It's worth noting that Schmaltz had been something of a second-half performer in recent years. During the 21-22 campaign, he posted 0.63 points per game between October and January, but jumped up to 1.13 per game from February to April. A similar pattern was seen the following season when he posted 0.82 points per game from October to January, and then 1.03 from February to April. Of the players on this list, Schmaltz should be most attainable. Rostered in just 18% of Yahoo Leagues, he's probably sitting on the waiver wire in most formats.
If you want someone else who saves the best for last, Mika is your man. In recent years, he's frequently elevated his play down the stretch. Since we're at the beginning of February right now, let's compare his point-per-game rate pre-February, to his rate from February-onwards in recent seasons. As you'll see, he's elevated his play down the stretch in three of the past four years. It might not seem that significant, but there aren't many players who show the same pattern.
| October-January (points/game) | February-April (points/game) | |
| 2022-23 | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| 2021-22 | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| *2020-21 | 0.77 | 1.10 |
| *2019-20 | 1.17 | 1.42 |
*20-21 COVID Year; season ran from January to May, so first column is January-March, and second is April-May.
*19-20 COVID Year; season ran from October to March, so first column is October-January, second is February-March.
Players to Trade
My suggestion to trade Forsberg isn't due to unsustainable underlying metrics. His shooting percentages look fine, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him achieve the ~40 goals and 82 points that he's on track for. He's seeing over 19 minutes of action per game, which represents a sizeable jump from anything he's seen in recent years, and he seems to have great chemistry with newcomers Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist on Nashville's top line. Skating beside two-way/playmaking types has allowed Forsberg to focus on getting pucks to the net, as evidenced by a career-high four shots per game. With all these reasonable explanations for Forsberg's great year, you might be surprised I'm suggesting you trade him away. It's not that I think his play will drop off, I'm more concerned about his attendance. Between now and the end of the season, the Predators play a league-low 31 games. Most teams have at least 33 games remaining, with a few having between 35 and 37. Depending on your league's format, it could be beneficial to trade Forsberg for a similar-caliber player who has more games left. Most of Nashville's remaining games are scheduled on busy nights, so rostering Forsberg might force you to bench other good players. The team has only seven light night contests remaining. In contrast, there are 12 teams with at least double the light night contests left. Maximizing your games played down the stretch can really help you get that extra production to inch your way to a championship.
One final thing I wanted to mention is Forsberg's injury history. He's missed 13 or more games in each of the past six seasons. You never want to see a player get injured, so I hope that trend ends this year. Regardless, it's a trend to bear in mind if he's on your fantasy team right now.
While I think Montreal's captain is an incredibly talented player, I'm worried about his fantasy value for the rest of this season. More than half (22/42) of Suzuki's points this season have come on the power play.
Montreal's recent success with the man advantage was largely fuelled by Sean Monahan's strong play in the bumper spot. With the Canadiens trading Monahan away on Friday, I'm concerned the team's power play won't be as efficient down the stretch, hurting Suzuki's overall output. Since high-quality centers are more abundant in fantasy formats than wingers or defensemen, I think there's more urgency to part ways with Suzuki than other members of the top unit like Cole Caufield or Mike Matheson. Given the depth at his position, you'll probably be forced to bench Suzuki quite often down the stretch as Montreal has a league-low six light-night games remaining between now and the end of the season.
According to Dobber's Schedule Planner, Washington has the highest quality of opposition between now and the end of the year. The team's opponents have a cumulative winning percentage of .588 (league-high) and are averaging 3.23 goals per game (league-high). Lindgren has been surprisingly strong this year, posting a 2.59 GAA and .916 SV% through 21 games. Although it's possible he maintains this form down the stretch, it'll be a tall task given what he's up against, so I'd feel safer trading him away. Considering he was a free agent in virtually every league to start the year, it probably didn't cost you anything to acquire him, so getting an asset for him now is just smart business.
Wait one second! Before you leave this page and start shopping UPL because you saw his name on this list, please take read this whole section. While I do recommend trading Luukkonen, you don't have to do it immediately. The 24-year-old netminder is in great form right now. He's been one of league's top goaltenders over the past five weeks, sporting a .940 SV% and 1.57 GAA in his last nine starts. He's established himself as Buffalo's starting netminder, with Devon Levi expected to stay in the AHL for the foreseeable future. Over the next three weeks, Buffalo has a serviceable schedule, set to play Dallas, St. Louis, L.A., Florida, Minnesota, Anaheim, Montreal and Columbus. After that stretch, their schedule becomes the most difficult in the league. From February 25th to the end of the season, Buffalo's opponents have a cumulative winning percentage of .595 (league high), averaging 3.24 goals per game. Montreal is the only team up against a stronger combination of offenses during that stretch (opponents averaging 3.27 goals per game). Depending on when your league's trade deadline is, it may be a smart play to ride the UPL express for a few more weeks, and then hop off before the path becomes dangerous.
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Thanks so much for reading! I hope you have an awesome week 😊
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