DFS Saturday: Flyers Continue To Be For Real

Brad Hayward

2024-02-10

A little extra time on my hands over the All-Star break and with this week’s slow start, this is probably a dangerous thing for a part-time hockey writer. I've taken to look at one of my favorite topics: fantasy defensemen.

Dobber came out with his monthly ranking of keeper/dynasty D-men. I'd point out that his criteria is a "points-only league." I've listed the standard Yahoo categories leagues (including both hits and blocks) beside them, and the comparative results are below. Some writers call these "banger" leagues, although the bangers categories seem fairly common.

(My comparisons are from the Dobber February rankings, with my ten-skater-category Yahoo league, using season average, minimum 25 games played, rankings from Thursday, February 8). Rankings only reflect D-men.

PlayerAgePoints-onlyMulticategory
Makar2511
Q. Hughes2424
Bouchard2335
Dobson2442
Fox25516
McAvoy26133
    
Trouba29NR14
Gudas33NR7
E. Karlsson33939
    
L. Hughes2022>70
Faber213140
Harley2240 15
Mintyukov2028>70

My first group – the top – we're at least close to agreement.  But in a keeper or dynasty league, regardless of your league set-up, these guys will never be available. If you own one, you're fortunate. Even trading for them is tough – I've tried. 

The next three skaters vary considerably. Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba are two of the best multiple category defensemen, and often drafted fairly high, although Gudas may be actually available in a shallow cats league – rostered in 51% of Yahoo leagues. Brenden Dillon, Jeremy Lauzon, Nick Seeler, and others are valuable multicat adds. Erik Karlsson, on the flip side, wasn't ranked among the best 20 D-men in categories leagues LAST SEASON when he won the Norris Trophy. At age 34 to start next October, it's not in question that his finest hockey is in the past, no matter what format. Points-only?  He's on a 61-point pace, and just lost his first-power-play assignment. 

The final group – the young guns – clearly are judged by opportunity as much as talent, which has yet to be fully exhibited. Brock Faber, in my opinion, has the clearest path to being "the guy" for the Wild – he's already there. Luke Hughes has both Dougie Hamilton and Simon Nemec to compete for time on the ice. Hughes may actually benefit by being more narrowly skilled for offensive and power-play deployment. Thomas Harley (behind Miro Heiskanen) and Pavel Mintyukov, I'd see as between those extremes. 

Let's talk availability – players you could actually acquire today. Under 25% owned in Yahoo leagues and under 25 years old are Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Jamie Drysdale, Rasmus Sandin, Kaiden Guhle, Mintyukov, Nemec, and Brandt Clarke.  Reaching deeper, to maybe look towards the end of next season or 2025-26, look at David Jiricek, Owen Zellweger, Kevin Korchinski, Lane Hutson, and Shakir Mukhamadullin (maybe sooner for him in San Jose).

Today's matches: 

Just seven of the 13 games start at 7:00 Eastern or later – I've tried to focus on these starting times throughout the season, recognizing that those fans in different time zones might not appreciate 10:00 AM Pacific starts.  For an interesting early game prop, though?  Bruins at home by 1.5 goals or more is at (-105), nearly even odds.  All of my betting costs and lines are from DraftKings

Nope

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Winnipeg Jets. The NHL's 30th-ranked power play (Penguins) against a team that's scored over two goals ONCE in the last month (Jets)?  Pass.  A great opportunity to play the "under" here, but for DFS points??  These squads are both better than what they've shown lately.  Ageless Sidney Crosby ($8000) has 52 points in 48 games, and this may be his 19th consecutive season to have at least a point per game, equaling a Wayne Gretzky record.

Gotta have the two points?

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Columbus Blue Jackets. With two regulation losses coming out of the All-Star break, and their next two games being against the Bruins and Avalanche, the Lightning can ill afford to let this one slip away. Jon Cooper has to have reminded his core players AGAIN, about the playoff collapse back in 2019, when the Bolts were swept in the first round. Since then, Tampa has 15 wins in 21 contests, but tonight isn't the time to let up.  I'll start Brayden Point ($7200, Brandon Hagel ($5100), and Darren Raddysh ($3100).  Who would've imagined the elder brother would have more points this season than Taylor Raddysh (19 to 11), and would play on the Bolts' top pair and second power play?  Darren had ten points in his first 39 games this season, but then nine in the last thirteen (57-point pace). Hagel and Point, meanwhile, each have 11 points in a Tampa's last nine games. Your buy-low window for Hagel has passed. 

Are they for real?

Seattle Kraken @ Philadelphia Flyers.  On the opposite extreme are the high-flying Flyers – two convincing victories out of the break, with Samuel Ersson ($7500) stopping 48 of 50 shots on goal.  He'll face a Seattle squad who hasn't played since losing 2-0 in San Jose, on January 30th.  Travis Konecny ($6100) has 14 points and 59 SOG since the calendar flipped to 2024 (16 games).  Any other Philly choice would be a "flier," but I'll play Joel Farabee ($5000).  In the last-30-days stats, he shoots more than Konecny. Oh – the Kraken have scored eight times in their last six road contests.

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The Late Show 

Edmonton Oilers @ Los Angeles Kings.  This one will be worth waiting up for.  The Oilers have prevailed in their last four matchups, three of them in L.A., but I'm going to play the home team to get the "new coach" bump, and Edmonton to fall in the second half of their Hollywood back-to-back.  Rather than reverting to pre-All-Star statistics from the Todd McLellan era, I'll admit to playing (affordable) hunches here. Pierre-Luc Dubois ($4100) seems like the player that a new coach might help most, and Mikey Anderson ($4000) is a great bet to block 4+ shots.  After that, my wild card – utility skater …

… would be Filip Forsberg ($7900), playing against an Arizona team that's been hot and cold all season. Tough for me, as I'll be rooting both for and against this – but that's how fantasy hockey is.

And thus, the lineup reads:

Centers – Dubois, Point

Wings – Konecny, Hagel, Farabee

Defense – Anderson, Raddysh

Goalie – Ersson

Utility – Forsberg

I'm still positive (ok, just five dollars) for the season, so splurging on that Boston prop bet along with my DFS team.

Hey – remember your Valentine this Wednesday, and one more good vibe to Dobber this week!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JJ PETERKA BUF
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
MIRO HEISKANEN DAL
BRYAN RUST PIT
LUKE HUGHES N.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JUUSE SAROS NSH
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency N.J Players
17.8 DAWSON MERCER ERIK HAULA PAUL COTTER
17.3 STEFAN NOESEN TIMO MEIER NICO HISCHIER
16.6 TOMAS TATAR JUSTIN DOWLING NATHAN BASTIAN

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