21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2024-02-11

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

1. With the NHL back from its All-Star break/bye week combo, that means it’s time to look at the stretch run of the fantasy hockey season. With the NHL Trade Deadline on Friday, March 8th, there are five full weeks of games from the following Monday (March 11th) through April 14th. That is the time fantasy leagues will be running their playoffs, so let’s look at different teams during those weeks to see if there are players that fantasy managers should be looking to acquire to help push themselves over the top during crunch time. (feb6)

[Follow the link for the complete breakdown…]

2. With fantasy trade deadlines approaching, I thought I’d write about a few players you should look to acquire, and a few you might want to trade away. For example, Ilya Sorokin:

The 28-year-old netminder has been outstanding since entering the league in 2020-21, widely considered one of the game’s top netminders heading into this season. However, (at time of writing) his numbers this year have been uncharacteristically poor. His 3.17 GAA and .910 SV% represent a significant drop from last year’s 2.33 GAA and .924 SV%. The fact that he still has a positive GSAA (goals saved above average), suggests that he’s still playing relatively well, but perhaps the team in front of him isn’t. A closer look supports that theory as New York has the sixth-highest expected goals against per 60 minutes (via NaturalStatTrick). With the Islanders struggling defensively, why would anyone in their right mind endorse Sorokin in fantasy leagues right now? Easy answer. I’m not in my right mind.

In all seriousness, the reason I’m optimistic about Sorokin’s rest-of-season outlook is due to recently hired assistant coach Benoit Desrosiers, who’s built strong defensive teams in the QMJHL. It might take some time for his teachings to be implemented, but I still think Sorokin can end the season in a better place than he’s in right now. If you’re in the market for a goalie and you can’t swing a deal for Sorokin, Joey Daccord and Filip Gustavsson have favourable schedules down the stretch and are worth considering as well. (feb5)

[Follow the link for more…]

3. After Jonathan Quick started three consecutive games for the Rangers, Igor Shesterkin was back between the pipes on Friday. Shesterkin hadn’t been his usual self recently, as he had been tagged with five really bad starts during January and a 3.25 GAA and .863 SV% in 2024 entering Friday’s game. Fortunately, the Blackhawks represented a get-well card for Shesterkin, who improved to okay in allowing three goals on 31 shots in a 4-3 overtime win for the Rangers.

The Rangers have a lot invested in the season, so they have to continue to weigh whether to play the hotter hand over the so-called established starter. The 38-year-old Quick, thought to be fading at this point in his career, has had at least one last hurrah recently with three wins and four quality starts over his last four games. Rostered in just under half of Yahoo and Fantrax leagues, Quick deserves a waiver-wire pickup by teams in need of goaltending. Shesterkin doesn’t seem to be out of the woods yet, since he allowed three goals to a team that has had major scoring issues. (feb10)

4. Marc-Andre Fleury delivered on his tribute night against his former team. Fleury stopped 33 of 35 shots he faced in backstopping the Wild to a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh. Fleury played his 1000th game on December 31, and he passed Patrick Roy with his 552nd career win on January 15. With the win on Friday, Fleury is now up to 553 career wins. Fleury is mainly a backup to Filip Gustavsson in what might be his final NHL season, so this win was nice to see. (feb10)

5. Brock Faber continues to be hot. With an assist on Friday, Faber now has 11 points over his last nine games. He’s surpassed 26 minutes in each of his last four games. He’s far and away the rookie leader in average ice time, and he’s already in the top 10 in average ice time per game among all players. In fact, he’s now only two points behind the injured Connor Bedard for the lead in rookie scoring. The longer Bedard is out, the more likely Faber is to grab the Calder Trophy. Consider the Calder a two-horse race even when Bedard returns. For more of a deep dive on Faber, check out last week’s The Journey. (feb10)

6. Because I’m sure you really want to know, Jesse Puljujarvi had no points in two games with Pittsburgh entering Saturday action, averaging just over 10 minutes per game. One of my leagues is so deep that someone just made a trade for him. Huh. I guess it’s worth mentioning that Pool Party has nine points in 13 AHL games this season, which isn’t bad. I honestly think he had some potential, but the Oilers threw him into the deep end of the pool way too early and that killed his confidence. Maybe he still has a semi-decent NHL career, but he’ll never live up to the billing of a fourth overall pick. (feb10)

7. Dustin Wolf has been recalled because Dan Vladar has been placed on IR with a lower-body injury. Jacob Markstrom has been rumored to be on the trade block because the Flames appear set on a retool and have three potentially NHL-level goalies. Although the Flames don’t play any back-to-back games until March, watch for Wolf to receive at least a few starts as the Flames give him more of an extended look.

Goalies aren’t easy to trade, especially ones with a $6 million cap hit. As well, a potential Markstrom trade could be tied to how long Vladar is out. The Flames could push for the playoffs anyway despite potentially selling players such as Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin. Although the Flames’ chances of making the playoffs would be undermined, remember that players and coaches compete regardless of the situation. (feb10)

8. Mikhail Sergachev underwent “successful” surgery on a fractured tibia and fibula in his left leg on Thursday. Given how he was stretchered off the ice on Wednesday, that’s about what was expected. Sergachev was making his return to the lineup after being out since just before Christmas with a lower-body injury, so this injury is a horrible blow to the Lightning and those rostering him. Although the Lightning did not announce a timeline for Sergachev, expect him to miss the rest of the regular season given how long it takes to recover from this type of injury (I know because I have personal experience). He could be back for the playoffs, depending on whether the Bolts make it and how far they go.

If this is in fact it for Sergachev as far as the regular season goes, he would finish with 19 points in 34 games. More notably, he’s also lost power-play time to Victor Hedman, receiving just 34.7% of the available minutes compared to nearly 50% last season. His power-play production has had a corresponding decline with just 7 PPP compared to 27 PPP last season. Hedman is having a strong bounce-back campaign, as he has already surpassed last season’s production (50 PTS) in 26 fewer games entering Saturday action. (feb9)

9. Two games, two goals for Andrei Kuzmenko in a Flames uniform (at time of writing). He’s on the top power play while skating with Jonathan Huberdeau at even strength with his new team, with his overall ice time increasing to 15-16 minutes with Calgary. Expectations may not be as high for Kuzmenko defensively as they were under Rick Tocchet, which may allow him to better thrive offensively with his new team. So far he appears to be a great fit with Calgary, which means he’s a worthwhile pickup in the leagues he is still available (just under half of Yahoo leagues). If you’ve held onto Kuzmenko in keeper leagues, this trade might be what you need to recoup some value. (feb9)

10. One sign that Connor Ingram‘s play this season may not be sustainable over future seasons: At time of writing late this week, he was tied for the league lead with 9 RBS (really bad starts). One of the goalies he was tied with is Mackenzie Blackwood, who had played a similar number of games and had just two fewer quality starts (17) than Ingram. It seems like either feast or famine for Ingram, whose numbers are being propped up by his five shutouts, which was among the league leaders. Selling high for a goalie that is more brand name might not be a bad option. Ingram’s better-than-expected play has meant fewer starts for Karel Vejmelka than expected. (feb9)

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11. As far as stat adjustments go, this is a big one. The NHL announced that they have performed an audit of hit totals this season and adjusted as necessary. This won’t change anything for prior fantasy weeks for head-to-head leagues, but hopefully this actually is an improvement to how they count hits moving forward. We will have to wait and see. (feb8)

12. Calgary signed winger Martin Pospisil to a two-year contract worth $1M per season. Though he has just 11 points in 34 games, he’s done that skating just 11:32 per night. With his 87 hits, he has the look of a good middle-6 option in banger leagues but we’ll have to see what the team’s roster looks like come September.  (feb8)

Meanwhile, Boston announced that rookie Matthew Poitras will be out five months due to shoulder surgery. That would put his timeline well ahead of training camp so hopefully he'll be all set to go when September rolls around. (feb8)

13. Whether it’s the reduction in fighting, increased mobility of defensemen, emphasis on special team improvements, or whatever else comes to mind, the NHL game has been evolving rapidly.

One area that has come to the forefront over the last 4-5 years is generating off the rush. Being able to create offense off things like an opposition turnover or a quick transition game seems to have more emphasis. The question is how much it matters for us in the fantasy game. (feb8)

[Follow the link for a look at rush offense at 5-on-5…]

15. Mike Matheson's two-assist game last Tuesday brought him to 36 points on the season. It marked a new career high for him, passing the 34 points he racked up in an injury-shortened 48-game season last year. He’s again pacing for just shy of 60 points, which seems to be a new normal. (feb7)

16. One option for those of you looking to boost your second-half peripherals would be Ryan Pulock. He returned on Monday to play his first game in nearly two months. He played over 20 minutes, mopped up some late power play time, and added two Shots, three Hits, and two Blocks along with a plus-one rating. At the time, he was still available in over 80% of Fantrax leagues, and 97% of Yahoo leagues. (feb7)

17. In planning for the upcoming trade deadline, I was looking at Mark Stone in one of my leagues, and it’s really interesting to me that after a full summer of hearing snippets that his back might never get fully healthy, and that we might see load management, and that it would be Vegas gaming the system with the LTIR again, we have instead seen Stone (at time of writing) play in every single one of Vegas’ games this year. He has been nearly a point-per-game player, has his highest average ice time since joining the Golden Knights, and has both produced more, and played more as the season has gone on.

I would imagine in the stretch run now we probably see his minutes dialed back a little as a minimum. The production will still likely be good regardless, but it’s something to keep in mind as a potential buyer or seller GM in the second-half. (feb7)

18. The New York Rangers agreed to mutually part ways with Nick Bonino, who decided that he did not want to report to Bridgeport after clearing waivers. With Filip Chytil out for the season, the Rangers were already shallow at the center position down through the organizational depth chart, and this just makes the need to add a bottom-six center that much more pronounced. A team with real cup aspirations does not go through the trade deadline content with Johnny Brodzinski centring their third line. They should be hard after someone like Adam Henrique. Any third-line center upgrade would be big for Kaapo Kakko‘s rest-of-season value. (feb7)

19. It has been a frustrating year for Andrei Svechnikov. He started the season late due to his knee surgery and was slow out of the blocks with zero goals in his first 11 games. He started torching the opposition afterwards to the tune of 11 goals and 12 assists in 18 games, but another injury forced him out of the lineup a couple weeks before the All-Star break. He was still in a non-contact jersey as Carolina returned from their time off. (Svechnikov was back in action yesterday) (feb6)

20. As was mentioned last week, it appears as if Viktor Arvidsson is nearing a return to the ice for Los Angeles. Adding Arvidsson, a five-time 20-goal scorer and two-time 30-goal scorer, should be an offensive boost to a team that needs it. It will go a long way in giving them three true scoring lines, but we’ll have to wait to see where, exactly, he lines up. (feb6)

21. Acquired in the Elias LindholmAndrei Kuzmenko trade (Alex’s take can be read here), Hunter Brzustewicz is an interesting name because he wasn’t on my radar but some prospect analysts I follow started talking about him more after his 2023 third-round selection. (Victor Nuño from Dobber Prospects had a bunch of tweets about his impressive skills.) With MacKenzie Weegar‘s ability to play the left side, Chris Tanev likely being traded, and a lack of right-hand shots after them besides Rasmus Andersson, Brzustewicz has a clear path to an NHL role in 2024-25. (feb6)

Have a good week, folks!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 24 - 19:11 TOR vs UTA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KENT JOHNSON CBJ
JOSH MANSON COL
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL
AARON EKBLAD FLA
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
JONATHAN QUICK NYR
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BUF Players
16.6 JACK QUINN JJ PETERKA JIRI KULICH
13.5 ISAK ROSEN DYLAN COZENS ZACH BENSON
11.7 JASON ZUCKER ALEX TUCH RYAN MCLEOD

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