Ramblings: Update on Woll; Afanasyev Called Up; Improvements from Sharangovich, Harley, Tatar, Frost, and More – February 13

Michael Clifford

2024-02-13

Toronto goalie Joseph Woll was at practice for the team on Monday, his first in over two months. How long he needs to get up to speed is up to him, but that he's back and practicing is a good sign for the team. Toronto has had their goalie struggles this season and Martin Jones, who started strong for the team, has managed just an .860 save percentage in his last six starts, giving up 24 goals. Fantasy owners rejoice as Woll looks to be returning sometime soon.

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Nashville called up prospect Egor Afanasyev from the AHL. In 42 minor league games this season, Afanasyev has 21 goals and 21 assists while averaging nearly 3.5 shots per outing. In return, Philip Tomasino was sent back to the AHL despite two goals and three points in his last three games.

Getting excited about Afanasyev is natural, but expectations should be tempered. Outside of Nashville's top line, and maybe Yakov Trenin or Colton Sissons, the second- and third-line forwards earn about 11-12 minutes a night at 5-on-5. Add maybe a couple minutes of secondary PP time and Afanasyev will be hard-pressed to get much more than 14 minutes a night unless he blows the doors off.

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San Jose announced forward Tomas Hertl will miss "several weeks" after getting a clean-up procedure in his knee. Whatever little trade speculation there was around him is certainly gone now.

They also said Logan Couture had a setback and is out week-to-week. Not a great day for the Sharks.

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The New York Rangers indicated a shakeup to the power play in practice over the weekend and went through with it in Monday's home game against Calgary. The 'top' unit had Mika Zibanejad's line with Jonny Brodzinski and Adam Fox while the 'second' unit had Artemi Panarin's line with Kaapo Kakko and Erik Gustafsson. The team had gone six straight games without a power play goal, so it makes sense, but it's not something that lasted long. They were back to the old configuration by the third period, so it was much ado about nothing.

The Rangers took that game 2-0 thanks to goals from Will Cuylle and Jimmy Vesey (EN). That makes seven goals in five games for the Rangers' bottom-6 forwards as the depth scoring is really starting to help the team win games. What really helped tonight was Igor Shesterkin stopping all 30 shots he faced for his first shutout of the season (really). It was his 21st win, though, and the GAA has been solid, so the fantasy value has still been mostly fine.

Jacob Markstrom was excellent in the loss. He allowed just the one goal on 30 shots, which was all that Shesterkin needed, but Markstrom made a number of spectacular saves in the first period just to keep the team in the game. For all of the problems he had last season, Markstrom has been one of the best goalies in the league again.

Kakko had an assist, three shots, a block, two PIMs, and a hit in a stat-stuffing night. He now has four points in his last six games.

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Jack Hughes had a goal, an assist (PP), and seven shots in New Jersey's 3-1 win over a visiting Seattle Kraken. Those were Hughes's first points since returning from injury three games ago, and it was his first multi-point game since late December.

Tyler Toffoli (PP) and Dawson Mercer also scored for the Devils. Toffoli has six goals in seven games and is now up to 22 markers on the season. Timo Meier had a primary assist on the Mercer goal and landed three shots, a pair of blocks, and a hit in a solid multi-cat effort.

Nico Daws stopped 27 of 28 shots in the win. At the least that pushes his save percentage back over .900 for the season (.903 to be exact). On the other side, Joey Daccord faced 37 shots but allowed three goals in the loss.

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It was a big night showing off the Flyers' future as Travis Konecny had a goal and two assists while Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, and Jamie Drysdale all tallied in the team's 5-3 win over Arizona. Konecny had four total shots and a hit while Tippett also had four shots but managed two hits for his multi-cat performance. Scott Laughton also had a goal and an assist in the victory.

Samuel Ersson allowed three goals on just 23 shots but hung on for the win as Karel Vejmelka allowed four on 33 shots for the loss.

Matias Maccelli, Alex Kerfoot, and Matt Dumba scored for the Coyotes in the loss. That was Maccelli's first goal in a month and just his second goal in 22 games. For as good a playmaker he is, finding more of that scoring touch is going to be necessary for more fantasy value. It was also Dumba's first goal in a while, too, as he hadn't scored in the previous 29 games.

Tyson Foerster was scratched due to injury, but it doesn't seem too serious and the team hopes to have him back by the weekend.

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Third period goals from Marco Rossi, Matty Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek (his second of the game) pushed Minnesota 5-3 over Vegas on Monday night. Mats Zuccarello (PP) also scored in an offensive outburst from the team's top stars. Boldy added two assists and he now has 17 goals and 13 assists in 33 games since John Hynes was hired as coach.

Eriksson Ek had four total shots, a pair of PIMs, and a hit to add to his multi-cat effort. Boldy finished with seven shots while Kirill Kaprizov had two helpers (one PP), six shots, and four hits of his own. Kaprizov is now up to 15 points over his last 10 games as he's heating up at the right time for the team to make a playoff push.

Brock Faber had two assists, two shots, two blocks, and a hit in a very good multi-cat night.

Mark Stone, Jonathan Marchessault, and Michael Amadio all scored for Vegas in the loss. It was just their third loss in 11 games without Jack Eichel in the lineup as they've held down the fort without their top centre (and still without Shea Theodore).

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We are nearly two-thirds of the way through the NHL season. It allows a moment to look back on how the season has gone across two good-sized samples. Here are notable improvements and declines from the first eight weeks of the season until now.

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Data from Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise indicated.

Yegor Sharangovich

After Jonathan Drouin – who has largely been a top-6/top PP fixture for months now – and Jake Evans – who has been one of the few healthy Montreal forwards not on the top line this season – no forward gained more ice time per game over the last couple of months than Sharangovich. He averaged 14:31 per game through the end of November and 19:06 since that point. It has been a productive stretch, too, with 25 points in 27 games.

The concerns for future production revolve around percentages. Sharangovich has registered a point on nearly 91% of Calgary's 5-on-5 goals with him on the ice over those 27 games (Individual Points Percentage, or IPP) and that is exceptionally high. He also shot 24.6% individually in that span, too. Over the last five games alone, including three with the newly acquired Andrei Kuzmenko, he's averaged 16:39 per night. This is a player whose 27-game stretch has seen him manage 2.3 shots per game and four total hits with heavy ice time. If he's closer to 16 minutes a night moving forward, and isn't shooting over 20%, production could be tough to come by. Now might be a good time to look at trading him away, and not acquiring him.

Thomas Harley

The eighth-largest ice time rise has gone to Harley, as he saw a big jump in usage while Miro Heiskanen was injured and has often been over 22 minutes a night since. He has 20 points in his last 25 games as he's been one of the most productive blue liners for a couple months now.

On the entire season, Harley's goal total (13) and shooting percentage (13.7%) stand out. Of late, it's important to note that 13 of those 20 points he accumulated recently are assists. After posting just four assists in his first 24 games, balancing out the inevitable goal drop with a rise in assists is very helpful.

Harley is an interesting case because none of the percentages early on were out of line except his personal shooting percentage (17.1%). Since then, that has declined (still high at 11.7%), but his IPP is 50% of the 5-on-5 goals scored. It isn't hard to imagine a high-end offensive defenceman in the middle of a hot streak posting that mark for 25 games, but only five regular defenders reached that mark in 2022-23. However, even 40% at Dallas's goal-scoring rates would have Harley around the 88th percentile of regular defencemen. With all the additional ice time, that's still good production. It always depends on the return, but this is not a player to sell high on.

Juraj Slafkovský

The last ice-time jump we'll discuss is Slafkovský, whose move to the top line added a lot of minutes from earlier in the season. Our split sample saw him add over one point per 60 minutes at all strengths, scoring at a 64th percentile rate. His recent 10-game stretch led to six goals and nine points in 10 games, easily the most productive stretch of his career.

Shooting consistently has been an issue. The second-half split is a 26-game span that has seen him post at least three shots in a game six times, and zero shots in a game six times. Things have been much better in that recent 10-game hot streak with 24 total shots, but it would be nice to see him maintain that rate (or close to it) for the next 30 games. It is hard to see him staying close to a point-per-game status the rest of the way, so maybe there's a sell-high opportunity, but that doesn't apply to keeper/dynasty leagues. In that sense, people with Slaf on their rosters are best served just hanging on to him unless they're really pushing for a title this season.  

Tomas Tatar

For a guy that had one goal in 27 games with Colorado, Tatar scoring six times in 20 games with Seattle has been a huge goal-scoring turnaround. What is funny is that the shooting percentages from both teams average out to 13.7% against a three-year average of 12.3%. it's always interesting how things work out sometimes.

The play of Joey Daccord has clearly been the biggest factor in Seattle's success over the last couple of months. With that said, the team's 5-on-5 scoring rate with guys like Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle, and Jared McCann have all climbed sharply since Tatar was added to the lineup. In fact, for Beniers alone, Seattle's goal rate has more than tripled with Tatar on his wing than without. Positive regression is part of it, but the team is also generating more shots and more expected goals, too.

Tatar's lack of power play role will keep his production low, but that doesn't mean he can't help others improve theirs. He is even showing the ability to chip in some goals himself.

Morgan Frost

With Travis Konecny establishing himself as a high-end winger, Owen Tippett en route to doing the same, the resurrection of Sean Couturier's career, and a whole host of other big performances, it's easy to overlook how good Frost has been. The split sample saw his points/60 minutes at all strengths make the fourth-largest leap and he's totaled 20 points in his last 26 games overall. That span saw him manage 15 hits, 20 blocks, and 2.2 shots per game. Even in multi-cat formats, Frost has been providing value.

Philadelphia's recent games have seen Frost skate on the second power play unit, but he's only earned 30 fewer seconds per game in power play ice time than the top unit. However, his 5-on-5 IPP is under 71%, which is normal, and he has just two secondary assists in those recent 26 games. Ice time and his role under John Tortorella are concerns, but there are no percentages really out of line here and as long as his role stays constant, he has the chance to produce 20 more points over the balance of the season.  

Jakob Chychrun

This is a good news/bad news situation. The good news is that in our sample, very few defencemen saw across-the-board increases in points, shot attempts, hits, and blocks per 60 minutes. Chychrun was one of those, and the hit rate alone increase over a full hit per 60 minutes. In fact, the split sample has Chychrun as 1 of 6 defencmen with at least 20 hits, 40 blocks, and 60 shots (Harley is also on that list, coincidentally). There hasn't been a huge offensive explosion yet, but he has been very good in most areas, and that makes for a valuable fantasy defenceman.

The bad news is that he also saw an ice time drop. In fact, in 20 games from mid-December to late January, Chychrun lost over 1:40 per game in ice time when compared to his first 25 games of the season. There have been a couple big ice time games very recently with Jake Sanderson injured, so that's the silver lining right now. However, when Sanderson is back, Chychrun is not guaranteed 23 minutes a night, and he is a trade deadline candidate as well even with a 10-team no-trade clause. Chychrun has been good, but can be better, though he may not get a big role on the Ottawa blue line.

Juuso Välimäki

A player that has also seen various increases is Chychrun's former teammate Juuso Välimäki. The split sample saw over a minute per game added, a points/60 jump of 31%, a shot attempts/60 rise of nearly 80%, and hits/60 increasing by a whopping 150%. To that last point, after managing just 11 hits in his first 18 games, Välimäki has 23 hits over his last 18 games. His raw point production is still low with five points in those recent 18 games, but the return of Barrett Hayton and top-line surge with Jack McBain should help this defenceman produce more at 5-on-5 moving forward. With a couple of Arizona's defencemen being trade candidates, Välimäki's ice time could rise even more over the final six weeks of the season, and continuing his points and hits levels could see a productive multi-cat option.

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