Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 14 team Roto league counting G, A, HIT, PIM, PPPts, SHP, W, GAA, SV%, SO and starting 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1F, 3D, 1G, a GM has been offered Jeremy Swayman and Tyler Seguin for Tom Wilson and Pyotr Kochetkov. Should they take the deal?

A lot of people are seeing what Swayman has done and expect him to be a star; but if you look at other goalies who had early success like him, it's not a great list. Assuming Swayman keeps his GAA under 2.45 and his SV% above .913, he will join a "club" of three other goalies who, in each of their first four seasons and dating back to 2000-21, had a GAA of 2.45 or lower and a SV% of .913 or higher. Who might they be? Petr Mrazek, Anton Khudobin, and Marty Turco. Yikes!

Even if you look at goalies who did so three times, you do see elite netminders Ilya Sorokin and Henrik Lundqvist, plus Frederick Andersen, Cam Talbot, Philipp Grubauer, John Gibson, and Darcy Kuemper, but also the likes of Jake Allen, Alex Nedeljkovic, Antti Raanta, Chris Driedger, David Aebischer, Chad Johnson, Vesa Toskala, and Kristers Gudlevskis. Yes, I realize many of the "no names" didn't play nearly as many games as Swayman; however, Swayman has not been "the guy" as yet so we can't be sure of his trajectory. These names are cause for concern no matter how you slice it.

With Kochetkov, you have a goalie who's acquitted himself well to the NHL when he's been called upon, plus is likely to be at least the back-up if not 1B next season since Raanta is a UFA and definitely will not be re-signed. Then there is Andersen, who is set to be a UFA in 2025. There is a path to Kotchetkov being a true #1 in at most two seasons, when Carolina should still be a very good team. Swayman likely will be the #1 for 2025-26 though too, as Linus Ullmark's deal will be ending. But what shape will the Bruins be in? They're well coached for sure, David Pastrnak looks like he is the next Nikita Kucherov, and Charlie McAvoy could become a Drew Doughty type. What will they have beyond that? Carolina seems to be far better positioned as a team for the future than the Bs.

Let's take the goalies off the table. I still would be looking to sell Wilson before his price drops considerably, which I think is in the process of occurring. The Caps are a team with an aging core, and not much in the way of reinforcements coming. Plus Wilson turns 30 in March; and as I've said in this column previously, the fantasy landscape is littered with many "rough and tumble" players whose production hit a wall at or even before age 30, like David Backes, Ryan Callahan, Wayne Simmonds, and Eric Cole to name just a few.

What I'd do is hold Kochetkov, and try to trade Wilson alone. Not for Seguin, but perhaps for a younger player who provides better offense but maybe 60-75% of the Hits Wilson does, like a Joel Eriksson Ek. Or try to turn Wilson into a d-man. Just don't hold Wilson past his expiration date, which, due to his age and team, is likely fast approaching.

Topic #2 – In a ten team league counting G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, SHG, GWG, W, GAA, SV%, and SHO as categories, a rebuilding team is trying to narrow down to its eight keepers. The options are: Frank Vatrano, Nick Suzuki, Alexis Lafreniere, William Eklund, Mitch Marner, Jesper Bratt, Troy Terry, Juraj Slafkovsky, Marco Rossi, Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras, Luke Hughes, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev, Brandt Clarke, Brock Faber, Olen Zellweger, and Filip Gustavsson. It is worth noting that prospects are undervalued, as Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther are both on the waiver wire, but goalies command a premium, as 19 of the 80 total keepers for this season were goalies. The GM also has received an offer of Quinton Byfield for his Charlie McAvoy. Who should they keep, and should they make the trade?

At the outset, if Cooley and Guenther are both free agents, that essentially removes the likes of Clarke, Zellweger and probably Slafkovsky from keeper consideration. Sticking with D, I know Faber is doing great things, but this format is not best suited from him, while it is for Hughes. Sergachev is a maybe, depending on the forwards.

McAvoy is a keeper if you don't make that trade. I probably wouldn't make the deaal, since LA is too balanced for Byfield to pay comparable dividends, at least for the time being. Another option is to see how things shake out given the LA coaching change. If suddenly the team decides to heap ice time on its top unit at ES and the PP, Byfield's value could skyrocket. But unless that happens, I'd hold McAvoy.

That leaves five more keeper spots, or six without Sergachev. I think Gus merits one of them. For starters, that is a lot of goalie keepers. Also, Gus is going to be the true #1 just as Minnesota escapes from cap hell, and you don't want to have him slip through your fingers.

Which four (or five if no Sergachev) forwards make the cut? I covered Suzuki in my Goldipucks column last week and explained that he has 90+ point talent, but just needs help from his teammates, which should come. Marner is a must keep too. Yes, he is aging, but he's a 90-point downside guy, and likely will stay that way for at least another handful of seasons. Bratt is tied to Jack Hughes, making him likely the next Jake Guentzel, and that's something I want to keep.

That leaves two spots for Sergachev, Zegras, Cozens, and Terry. Without SOG and banger stats, I think Terry is very solid. As for Zegras, he's lost a lot of his luster due to injury as well as the emergence of Mason McTavish. I think I prefer Cozens, as Buffalo's top six is stacked and he is likely to command a precious spot on PP1. Sergachev is a tough omission, but loses value due to lack of Hits and Blocks and out of concern that when he finally gets handed the reins as Tampa's true #1 defensemen, the team will no longer be a potent offensive dynamo.

The final list of keepers is Gustavsson, McAvoy (or Byfield if LA begins to lean on its top line and PP1 more so than it had), Luke Hughes, Suzuki, Marner, Bratt, Terry and Cozens. To me, that seems like the best bunch given the categories and league tendencies.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, points only league starting 9F, 3D, 2G, which ten of the following players should be kept: Nathan MacKinnon, Tim Stutzle, Kyle Connor, Kirill Kaprizov, Travis Konecny, Johnny Gaudreau, Nazem Kadri, Gustav Nyquist, Vladimir Tarasenko, Joe Pavelski, Cale Makar, Zach Werenski, Brock Faber, Filip Hronek, John Carlson, Alexander Georgiev, Andre Vasilevskiy, Filip Gustavsson?

Let's get the "lay-up" keepers our of the way from the get go, and that's MacKinnon, Stutzle, Connor, Kaprizov, and Makar. And let's remove the "no way" guys too, those being Nyquist, Tarasenko, and Pavelski. So for the last five it boils down to Konecny, Gaudreau, Werenski, Faber, Hronek, Carlson, Georgiev, Vas, and Gus, meaning four of the nine don't make the cut.

With only 3D, I'm eliminating Carlson. He's not only showing his age but also plays for a Caps teams that seems headed nowhere but down in terms of scoring. The other thing which is so key about Washington is not only did Ovi help produce points that in turn were shared by others, but he forced opposing teams to focus so much on him, allowing teammates to shine too. With Ovi seemingly having become a shell of his former self, the ripple effects are being felt throughout the entire Caps line-up.

Faber is doing great things and is on pace to log the most minutes per game of any rookie d-man since TOI started being measured; however, the team has little choice but to play him into the ground, and he doesn't shoot a lot, which is something you'd want to see. Could he become the next Drew Doughty or Duncan Keith, both of whom also logged major minutes as rookies? Sure; but he could just as easily be Tyler Myers 2.0, as Myers looked great as a rookie too but then was deemphasized offensively, which I fear will occur with Faber, especially after the Wild are out of cap hell in two seasons. Maybe if five defensemen started not three; but with the rosters as they are, Faber isn't a keep.

Neither is Hronek, who, after producing at a point per game rate over his first 23 contests, has subsequently scored at a point per every other game pace, or right where he was while a member of the Red Wings. And he's been even worse of late, with a stretch of 18 games where he only had a point in four of them. Yes, in three of those he had two points, so it looks not as bad as it is; however, I think he's not an offensive defenseman and the boost he got from being on the Canucks seems to have disappeared, and I for one wouldn't count on it returning.

Werenski, however, is a keep for me. Despite the tire fire that is Columbus right now, he's doing better than he ever has, and this after missing nearly all of 2022-23. He's snack dab in his prime and could become the Roman Josi of the Blue Jackets, meaning a rearguard who posts a lot of points in part because the forwards fail to do so.

In terms of the forwards, the only two in the conversation are Gaudreau and Konecny. Nyquist has done well gelling with Ryan O'Reilly and Filip Forsberg; and for all we know he could stay at or above a 60 point pace. But that's essentially a best-case scenario for him, whereas it's closer to the downside for Gaudreau and Konecny, plus Nyquist is 34, which is four years Gaudreau's senior and eight years older than Konecny. Pavelski is someone I learned the hard way not to bet against; but he's no longer glued to Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz at ES, and his ice time is down a full minute, with half of that forfeited PP time. And the Stars might move on from him this offseason, or he could opt to retire. If he doesn't though, he's still not a keep. And neither is Tarasenko, who is no longer an offensive focal point and, at 32, likely will start to slow soon.

For the goalies, I like that Georgiev is locked into the starting gig for a team that should be a force for years to come. And that is gold in a points-only league. Vas too is a true "the guy" in net. Yes, he's no longer superhuman; however, the Lightning should still be a playoff caliber team for a few more seasons. Gus is intriguing in terms of future potential.

If this wasn't a 9F league, there is a universe where I could see keeping all three goalies. But I think that would be overdoing it. Thus, the full list of keepers is MacKinnon, Stutzle Connor, Kaprizov, Gaudreau, and Konecny at forward, Makar and Werenski at D, and Georgiev and Vasilevskiy in net.

Topic #4 – In a league with skater categories of G/A/PPP/SOG/Hit/Blk, how do the following players rank for the rest of this season, and for three years from now: John Tavares, Quinton Byfield, Wyatt Johnston?

For the rest of the season, the choice is Tavares. Yes, he's not the same player he once was; however, he's got William Nylander alongside him at ES, and he's locked into a spot on a great PP1. His PP scoring is down, but his spot is in no jeopardy and his PP IPP is far below his norm, such that PP points should come. Granted, the evolution of Nylander into more of a star in his own right will syphon away some PPPts that would've previously gone to Tavares, but Tavares still should be getting considerably more than he did in the first half. He also remains very strong in SOG and even still continues to have more than a hit per game.

In second place I've got Byfield. He's producing well; and although he's not getting heaps of ice time, he's been on PP1 more than not, and he is slowly seeing his SOG rate climb. Yes, he's weak in some of the other categories, but Johnston isn't superb in them either. Also, while it is true that Dallas has been featuring Johnston on the top line, that could end at any time, as the lure of Joe Pavelski might be too much for the Stars to ignore, particularly as it gets closer to playoff time. I've got Byfield in second, but the gap between Tavares and Byfield is considerably wider than between Byfield and Johnston.

Looking ahead three seasons from now, there is a chance Tavares is playing elsewhere, as his current deal ends after 2024-25. My guess is he'd re-sign cheap enough such that if his skills are still there he could continue in much the same role he's in now. It's less certain, plus both Byfield and Johnston should be starring for their teams by that time. Still, Dallas has several players who are focal points now despite already being in their 30s. That is good news for Johnston in that he should have no barriers to top six and PP1 spots. But will Dallas still be as potent then as they are now? Tough to say, or tougher than for LA, which has a better balance of player ages. With Byfield already on the top line and normally PP1, he should continue to occupy those roles.

Three years from now, if Tavares is still on Toronto and their core offense remains intact, he might have similar value as he does today. But then again he could start to show his age and/or the Leafs might not opt to re-sign him. There's enough uncertainty that he can't rank first. I think the top spot has to be Byfield given the strides he's made and where he already stands in terms of his team's pecking order. But is Johnston likely to be better than Tavares? I think I'd still opt for Tavares, who'll only be 36, and likely still very much intertwined with the Toronto offense. For now it's Tavares, Byfield and Johnston, whereas in three years Byfield and Tavares switch places and Johnston remains third.

Topic #5 –In a keeper where skater categories are goals (3 points) and assists (2 points), who'd rank last out of Jakub Vrana, Oliver Wahlstrom, and Peyton Krebs?

Perhaps no more than here has the expression lesser of all evils applied, as all three have been major disappointments versus expectations. In Vrana, you have a player who prior to 2023-24 had scored at a rate of 50+ points for four straight campaigns, but due to various injuries and off ice issues hasn't played in more than 26 games since 2020-21. He also turns 28 this month, so he's a good bit older than the other two.

Wahlstrom has been touted for several seasons and always gets a shot to play with top-tier talent on the Islanders but can't seem to connect the dots. Yes, technically he still has yet to hit his 200 game breakout threshold; however, he turns 24 in March and his SOG rate is on tap to decline for a second straight campaign. In short, he's not seizing the opportunities he continues to receive, such that you have to wonder when – more so than if – he'll stop receiving them.

Krebs was a centerpiece of the Jack Eichel trade, but has been a flop for the Sabres. Yes, there is a logjam at forward; however, others have made more of their chances than Krebs, who, despite just turning 23, is fast approaching his breakout threshold but, if anything, seems to be getting worse rather than better.

It boils down to whether the player who's shown the most, namely Vrana, but has very big question marks and is considerably older, is better than two younger players who might still be able to fulfill their potential, although based on recent results that is more in doubt by the day.

One key is Vrana is a UFA after this season, meaning he can latch on anywhere. It might be that other teams are leery of him though, and he could flee to the KHL. Krebs and Wahlstrom also are on the last years of their deals; but they're RFAs and almost assuredly will be qualified by their teams. Still, their new deals won't be for big enough money to give them a better chance to receive improved deployment. Instead, they will likely get signed to short term contracts that will be essentially "prove yourself" deals. Perhaps though that will light a fire under one or both?

With Vrana set to be a UFA and playing as poorly as he has, plus being older, he probably is the drop, although I think Krebs and Wahlstrom are likely to disappoint too. But here it's a case of going with youth and hope.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team daily H2H, keep 3 league with rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 3Bench, 2IR+, and 1IR, and categories of G, A, Pts, +/-, PPPts, PIM, SOG, HIT, W, SV, SV%, SO, a team has to drop a goalie and has to decide whether it's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Pyotr Kochetkov. Their other goalies are Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Frederik Andersen. Who is the drop?

Making this decision easier is the fact that neither is going to be a keeper over Oettinger or Shesterkin. All that matters is what you'll get from the other three over the remainder of this regular season. Call me crazy, but I think Andersen might be the drop.

UPL seemingly has grabbed ahold of the Buffalo crease, and I expect the team to be better over the remainder of the season. Plus, GAA isn't a category, which is likely where UPL will be weakest. There is a chance he falters and loses the starting gig; but I feel that Buffalo wants stability in net and will give UPL more of a leash, especially since it allows them to leave Devon Levi in the AHL where he can get more starts and continue his development. They don't want him to be rushed since he has the makings of a true #1.

In a perfect world Carolina would want Kochetkov in the AHL too, getting starts without the pressure of the NHL, poising him to the full time back-up next season, with Antti Raanta for not being re-signed this summer, and then the starter in 2025-26, with Andersen's deal ending after next season. But with each passing week, the realistic number of games that Andersen could start shrinks. And let's not forget he looked not so great when he did play early on. But he is playoff tested, while Kochetkov isn't.

Truth be told, it's going to be Oettinger and Shesterkin starting most if not all weeks between now and the remainder of the regular season, with UPL being able to be plugged in as needed. The choice between Kochetkov and Andersen isn't likely to be very consequential. Given that, I'm rolling the dice with Kochetkov, as I feel this will end up being a lost season for Andersen.

Topic #7 – With his play improving of late, has the "buy low" opportunity with Juraj Slafkovsky officially closed, for a league with skater scoring of G(2), A(1), HIT(0.1), BLK(0.1)?

Here's the thing about first overall picks – they're given a lot of leeway by those who own them in fantasy leagues. After all, there were still plenty of poolies not willing to give up on Alexis Lafreniere even after last season saw him fail to post point per every other game numbers yet again. Part of this is the sense that as a first overall pick they have to eventually become great, as that does tend to happen; but there's also the sunk costs factor, as in order to get the pick that enabled them to select a player like Slaf, they either had to trade something of substantial value or had to tank for perhaps several seasons. Long story short, people who own first overall picks in fantasy have a strong attachment to them.

That attachment also logically extends to trade value. No matter what, a player who was picked first overall will be valued comparatively higher than someone with identical or even slightly better stats, simply because of that first overall status. No one wants to be the guy who gives up on the first overall pick only to see him turn into a huge star. Think about those who weren't patient with Jack Hughes or Nathan MacKinnon, both of whom took a few seasons to hit their stride. Poolies who own other first overall picks see that and worry about giving up on one too soon. Plus, I think if you ask someone whether they'd rather have held a first overall pick player too long and failed to receive value for him, or traded him too soon only to see him go nuts for another team, I think most everyone would prefer the former, as the latter would be too unpleasant of a reminder, whereas the former would definitely still sting but give you more of a "you can't win 'em all" feeling, rather than deep regret.

As for Slaf, I don't really even know if there was a buy low window. For one, he plays for one of the most high profile NHL teams; that in and of itself gives him arguably more perceived value. Add to that the fact that he's connecting the dots in his second season, and I'd say that any chance of getting him for a decent value – if it even existed – is indeed gone.

Is there ever a true buy low window for first overall picks who could still pan out but have yet to do so? I'd say yes, as this offseason Laffy likely could have been fetched for a price that, in view of him taking some positive steps this season, would have made him a good value. But it will be very rare for a first overall pick to have his value be affordable yet still there being hope he really explodes.

If there are GMs in your leagues who cling to draft spot in terms of equating value to players, my guess is they aren't faring too well, as although it is true that players picked very early tend to get far more chances and longer leashes, once it's been two or three years after the draft, it's not really a factor where they were picked – that is, in fantasy if I'm looking at two 2021 draft picks who play the same position and have done pretty much the same in terms of their careers thus far, I will not assign more value to the player drafted earlier, as even if there was a time to differentiate them on that basis, it's gone now.

Topic #8 – What should we made of Owen Power? Can he still deliver on lofty expectations? What might his realistic ceiling be?

Buffalo drafted Power despite already having Rasmus Dahlin in the fold because no NHL team has ever complained of having too much blueline talent. Also, Buffalo clearly envisions Power being a major force, as they inked him to a seven year extension that will see him be paid $8.3M per season starting in 2024-25, despite the fact that at the time he had he yet to finish a season with even point per every other game output. And as I write this he's on track for his worst season as an NHLer for 2023-24. It's a fair question to ask in terms of what he might do in the coming years, and what his ceiling could be.

First off, Dahlin is a major talent with amazing offensive gifts, such that Power likely will not be given as favorable deployment as Dahlin, in terms of OZ% and PP time, as Buffalo does not seem to be a team that would run an "old school" 2D, 3F PP1. So can Power succeed despite the long shadow cast by Dahlin?

Going back to 2000-01, there have been a total of 57 instances of a team which featured at least two defensemen who each played 40+ games while scoring at a 50+ point pace. That translates to more than two per season. With the firepower the Sabres have, and given how well built for the future they appear to be, it seems viable for that to occur with them at some point. And the key is Power being paid as much as he is. Making north of $8M per season all but ensures that Power won't be just a defense-first player.

What if we raise the threshold to a 60+ point pace – how many teams had two d-men score at that pace in the same campaign while both playing 40+ games? More than I've have expected, as it's occurred 13 times. Only four of the 13 instances occurred in the past ten seasons, so some of the earlier ones might be vestiges of the bygone era of two defensemen on PP1. If we look at the four most recent examples, they were Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore last season, Cale Makar and Devon Toews in 2021-22, Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi in 2019-20, and Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson in 2018-19. In two of those cases, Ellis and Theodore did miss a chunk of games, while in another, Toews likely piggybacked off Makar quite a bit. The only one I see as a possible parallel here is Burns and Karlsson, but even then we're talking about two of the most talented offensive defensemen in recent years, and we can't be sure Power will rise to that level.

I'd say my confidence level is pretty high in terms of Power being able to be a 50+ point defenseman once he hits his stride. But 60+ points, as long as Dahlin is in the picture and still a top tier offensive defenseman? That might be more of a stretch.

What would I do if I owned Power in a keeper? I know what I said above about first overall picks having high perceived value even if they don't succeed out of the gate; however, that is more the case with forwards. I think some of the "new car smell" has already worn off Power and it is possible he could be had for a price that factors in less than 50+ point upside. Of course if it is a cap league, then it's an entirely different story, as I'm not sure he's going to be worth $8.3M and I'd be looking to unload him before that new deal kicks in.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.