Geek of The Week: Revisiting True Value Goalie Rankings
Ryan Brudner
2024-02-18
Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to revisit my True Value Goalie Rankings for multicat leagues. I presented these rankings in a previous article if you're interested. I'll be reviewing goaltenders' true value for category leagues so far this season using Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks. I'll compare this value to the value perceived through Yahoo's rankings. These constructs are most valuable for standard head-to-head multicategory leagues that count Wins, SV%, GAA, and SO.
These stats can paint a clearer picture of what is happening week-in week-out at the position. Rather than looking at the cumulative stats in each category, you can see exactly what value a goalie brought to their fantasy teams each week. The goalies who are more boom or bust, are not as valuable as goalies providing consistent value week-in week-out, especially in head-to-head category leagues, where you likely don't need to finish with a .970 save percentage.
Although having a stellar week will no doubt lock down the goalie categories for you, a save percentage of .920 will most likely win you that category and others as well. Both of these scenarios would be considered a Quality Week, whereas the .970 scenario would be more likely to be considered a star week. The Really Bad Weeks are where your goalie has crushed your hopes of winning the goalie categories in a week. You can see the criteria for each of the stats below:
Quality Week – When a goalie has performed above the weekly average in two out of three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA).
Star Week – When a goalie has ranked top 15 for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). OR if your goalie has had a quality week and has also gotten a shutout (This assumes SO is a counted category).
Really Bad Week – When a goalie has ranked below the top 30 goalies in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA), and has not gotten a shutout.
Example: Averages for a week for Wins, SV%, and GAA are 0.8, .897, and 3.05. A goalie has finished the week with a .920 SV%, a 2.65 GAA, and 1 Win. This goalie has done better than average in at least two of those stats, earning him a quality week. It is also likely he is in the top 15 in all three stat categories for the week, earning him a star week.
Please note, the conceptualizations above are slightly different to what are represented in FrozenTools, but are similar.
Top 20 Goalies in True Value
Here are the top 20 goalies so far in True Value. These rankings provide equal weight to Quality Weeks, Star Weeks, and Really Bad Weeks.
You can access the full rankings here
After writing about how Hellebuyck was greatly undervalued by Yahoo's rankings in my previous article, he has shot up those rankings to first. Well, he is also first in these rankings, providing a Quality Week 89% of the time, a Star Week 44% of the time, and only has had one Really Bad Week so far. He is one of the few goalies I would trust week-in week-out.
Hill still ranks third in Yahoo's goalie rankings on the season. This is just way too high. He's been great and has amazing cumulative stats, but these great performances are not consistent. He has only had a Quality Week 66% of the time and has had a Really Bad Week 25% of the time. Most of his Quality Weeks have been Star Weeks, likely skewing his rankings and his reputation.
Although he has not been as great as previous seasons, Logan Thompson is very close to Adin Hill in these True Value rankings at 26th. He's picked up a Quality Week 73% of the time and a Really Bad Week only 13% of the time. His Star Weeks are lacking, but he is very consistent.
Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman
Ullmark is having an under-the radar stellar fantasy season. His consistency has been similar to what he did last year, but just has less Star Weeks. He has picked up a Quality Week 82% of the time and has only had one Really Bad Week so far. While having zero Really Bad Weeks last year, I would be comfortable betting on no more to follow the rest of the way. Ranked way down at 19th in Yahoo's rankings, Ullmark is extremely undervalued due to his just above average cumulative stats.
Jeremy Swayman on the other hand is overvalued. He is ranked sixth in Yahoo's rankings, but only 21st in these True Value rankings. He has been more of a boom-or-bust play putting up a Star Week in half of his Quality Weeks, of which he earns 70% of the time, but he has had a Really Bad Week 29% of the time. That is the highest rate of Really Bad Weeks among any goalie with a 65% Quality Week percentage or higher. I'd be much more comfortable with Ullmark than Swayman.
Binnington has gotten no love in the Yahoo rankings, all the way down at 25th. If you own Binner, you know he's provided much more value for you this season, and much more value than you likely expected. His low Yahoo ranking comes from relatively average cumulative stats, with a .908 SV% and a 2.93 GAA. However, he does rank ninth in Wins.
These average stats are reliable and consistent. He has had a Quality Week 78% of the time and has only had 1 Really Bad Week all season. These put Binnington at third in True Value rankings. Although I don't know if he can keep up this consistent play, he has provided consistent value for his fantasy owners so far.
True Value per Active Week
Here are rankings for True Value per active week.
Some goalies have not played many weeks. It is worth examining how valuable these goalies have been when they do slot into the lineup. Anthony Stolarz, David Rittich, and Laurent Brossoit have all been very consistent when they get starts. These guys can make very valuable streaming options, or potential holds the rest of the season if they are rewarded more starts.
Hope you enjoyed. Follow me on X @fantasycheddar, where I will answer any questions you may have.
-Ryan Brudner, Top Cheddar Fantasy